Iowa & New Hampshire: Representative of Conservatism?
Again, in the interests of full disclosure, this idea was stolen blatantly from one Mr. Rush Limp-balls radio show today.
The question he asked, and that made me think, was (basicly) "Is Iowa and New Hampshire representative of what Conservative America thinking, or are they biased in a direction not parallel to more "Red" States later on in the process?"
As you can imagine, the point was how much faith/worry should the Iowa and New Hampshire caucus/primary resukts cause in the Republican party, and will these results play out down the road in Red states.
His argument was twofold:
--Iowa is a tiny, very rural state with a small population, this easier to have small number make big percentage changes. The number of Caucus goers was considerable small.
--New Hampshire is a very liberal state, with a vast number of Independants who can choose which primary to vote in as they see fit. As such, they tend to favor more liberal (Moderate) candidates, and can be swayed by the large Independant numbers as well.
His claim was, (again, put very simply): Wait till South Carolina, see which Republican wins that and those right after it, before proclaiming Huckabee or even Romney as the Republican frontrunner. I.e. the Rpeublican nomination won't be settled any time soon.
And frankly, his line of reasoning made sense to me. It may not be right, but it sounded logical if nothing else.
He's right, and there isn't much of an argument against him.
There is too much importance placed on Iowa and NH by the media and the parties themselves. This attention has a major effect on the momentum of the candidates and downplays the importance of the later primaries. Whenever you use such a small sample size (2 out of 50 states) to represent the views of the larger majority, you're going to run into issues.