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Thread: The Official South Carolina Primary Prediction/Discussion Thread

  1. #1

    The Official South Carolina Primary Prediction/Discussion Thread

    Yep, it's the next big one coming in the ever tightening race.

    Polling (per CNN.com) as of today, 1/9/08 is:

    [B][U]Democrat:[/U][/B]
    Obama -- 35%
    Clinton -- 34%
    Edwards -- 13%

    [B][U]Republican:[/U][/B]
    Huckabee -- 28%
    Romney -- 20%
    Giuliani -- 12%
    McCain -- 11%
    Thompson -- 10%
    And so you Paul guys wont say I am giving him a media freeze, Paul at 3%

    So get in those predictions and brilliant arguments for WHY things will turn out as they will. :D And of course, Post-Primary debate/discussion can also go here as well.

  2. #2
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    In all fairness, these numbers are based on a CBS News poll conducted on [B]December 13-17, 2007[/B]. These numbers have definitely changed since then.

  3. #3
    I'm pulling for McCain, but I don't see it happening in South Carolina. It's just too bad Giuliani is in the race, because a lot of his votes in NY would go to McCain, I think

  4. #4
    Here's mine. Hopefully they turn out better than my NH calls:

    D:
    1) Obama
    2) Clinton
    3) Edwards

    I think Obama has fared well enough in the first two states to convince black voters that he's a viable candidate for president, which ought to mean a lot in a pool that's 50% african-american. I also think Edwards, by staying in, hurts Clinton more than Obama in this state.

    R:
    1) Huckabee
    2) McCain
    3) Thompson

    Evangelical power fuels Chuckabee here. A third-place finish will finish off Fred, adn my hunch is he endorses McCain as he leaves.
    Last edited by nuu faaola; 01-09-2008 at 12:35 PM.

  5. #5
    [QUOTE=parafly;2308172]In all fairness, these numbers are based on a CBS News poll conducted on [B]December 13-17, 2007[/B]. These numbers have definitely changed since then.[/QUOTE]

    A Jan 6 Rasmussen poll shwoed Obama up 42%-30%, with Edwards at 14%. Very possible that is tighter following NH, though.

    [url]http://www.pollster.com/08-SC-Dem-Pres-Primary.php[/url]

  6. #6
    [QUOTE=parafly;2308172]In all fairness, these numbers are based on a CBS News poll conducted on [B]December 13-17, 2007[/B]. These numbers have definitely changed since then.[/QUOTE]

    Thanks for the info Para, I just pulled from the first "news" site I found. Feel free to post more current numbers, and thanks!:D

  7. #7
    I haven't looked at any polls other than those quoted in this thread. But if I had to guess order of finiishes, on the Dems I think Obama will beat Clinton but I think Edwards will come fairly close to Cllinton. Obama finishes a strong first, I think.

    As for the Republicans, I think it will go Huckabee then McCain. The only things I really know about South Carolina are that (1) it seems to be pretty evangelical (at least my Jewish buddy who relocated to Myrtle Beach and golfs talks all the time about his BABs - Born Again Buddies) and (2) didn't Bush do a major hatchet job on McCain in the Carolinas 8 years ago? If those two snippets are true, I tend to think Huckabee has a chance to win pretty big.

  8. #8
    NH realy surpised me on the Dem side, as I am sure it did for alot of folks. Leaves me VERY unsure as to 1/2 in S.C.

    If I had to guess, I'd go

    Clinton
    Obama second and close
    And Edwards a good 5-10% behind as his chances wind down.

    On the right, it's also a free-for all, but I's go:

    Romney
    Huckebee
    McCain
    Rudy

    Thompson and Paul get crushed again, drop outs forthcoming (well, Paul may stick just to prove his point perhaps, hes got plenty of cash reportedly, and little of it spent as yet).

  9. #9
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    This is a good site for various up to date polling information.

    [url]www.realclearpolitics.com[/url]

  10. #10
    I think the only way to interpret the NH results on the Dem side is that the crest of Obamamania has passed, and voters are getting that the media has given him a free ride, and that he does not have any original ideas or proposals.

    The GOP side is more complex. Huckabee did okay enough to remain a force in a state like SC. Romney has a lot of work to do do remain competitive, though. I also don't agree with the low projections for McCain. He's not running against the W slime machine in SC this time.

    It will probably be between McCain and Huckabee, but I would not yet rule Romney out.

  11. #11

    Confirming a few prior points

    Everything I've read says that the African American vote in SC is roughly 50%I actually think there is going to be a big swing to Obama, close to a Backlash amonst the AA vote in SC, similar to the female backlash towards Hillary in NH.

    I think Obama wins big, I'll bet we see Oprah down there 1 if not two of the weekends before the election. Hillary gets in the 20's and Edwards in the high teens.

    Carl Rove did a hatchet job with push polling on John McCain in 2000. Bushes boys ran a phone survey asking people what they thought of a candidate having a child out of wedlock. McCain has an adopted daughter from Bangladesh I believe. I like McCain but the religous folks in SC dont like him at all. The immigration issue is going to hurt him bad in SC. The Bible thumpers do not trust him at all.

    Romney is nowhere in this state, his flip flops on abortion will not play well down there. Rudy is in single digits because of the abortion issue. Which leads us to ....

    Mike Huckabee, he is going to clean up huge down there. Very large Evangelical population in SC. It's the last time Huckabee will have a chance to do retail (door to door) campaigning, too many states coming too fast after this one. Huckabee doesnt leave this state before this election, I dont think he even visits Michigan.

    So in summary,

    Obama high 40's
    Hillary low 30's
    Edwards high teens

    Huckabee High 30's
    McCain 20ish
    Mitt 18ish
    Rudy 12ish
    Thompson 12
    Paul 8

    Just my .02, sorry for the long post, I do get kind of geeked up for elections.

  12. #12
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    [QUOTE=tahoejet;2309151]Carl Rove did a hatchet job with push polling on John McCain in 2000. Bushes boys ran a phone survey asking people what they thought of a candidate having a child out of wedlock. McCain has an adopted daughter from Bangladesh I believe.[/QUOTE]

    I know...that was nice, wasn't it? Especially coming from such an upstanding camp like the Bushies. Didn't they also infer that McCain was a cowardly traitor who caved to North Vietnamese interrogation and that he wasn't mentally sound enough to serve as president because of his imprisonment?

  13. #13
    [QUOTE=PlumberKhan;2309502]I know...that was nice, wasn't it? Especially coming from such an upstanding camp like the Bushies. Didn't they also infer that McCain was a cowardly traitor who caved to North Vietnamese interrogation and that he wasn't mentally sound enough to serve as president because of his imprisonment?[/QUOTE]

    OK, bad things all round.

    But how pathetic is it that the ignorant masses ate it up and believed any of it?

    Don't hate the player, hate the game. And in this case, the game is Politics for an absolutely ignorant, uninformed, uncaring and assinine population.

  14. #14
    [QUOTE=Warfish;2309535]OK, bad things all round.

    But how pathetic is it that the ignorant masses ate it up and believed any of it?

    Don't hate the player, hate the game. And in this case, the game is Politics for an absolutely ignorant, uninformed, uncaring and assinine population.[/QUOTE]

    [IMG]http://www.pogowasright.org/images/thinking.jpg[/IMG]

  15. #15
    My prediction (probably wishful on my part ... but here goes)

    Dem Rats' :P

    1) Obama
    2) Hillary
    3) Edwards

    Republicans (your collection of RINOs, fake conservatives, and two real conservatives)

    1) Fred
    2) Huckabee
    3) McCain
    4) Romney
    5) Rudy
    6) Paul
    7) Hunter

  16. #16
    [QUOTE=angry jets fan;2310391]
    Republicans (your collection of RINOs, fake conservatives, and two real conservatives)

    [B]1) Fred[/B]
    2) Huckabee
    [B]3) McCain[/B]
    4) Romney
    5) Rudy
    6) Paul
    7) Hunter[/QUOTE]

    Because that race isn't chaotic enough for you already?

  17. #17
    [quote=nuu faaola;2310406]Because that race isn't chaotic enough for you already?[/quote]

    You know, its funny, but the Republicans might actually have a nomination fight on their hands after the primaries are played out

    Can't happen on the democrat side, since I doubt anyone other than Clinton or Obama will win even one primary, let alone enough to keep both of them down below 50%, but this could be the first time in my lifetime that a party convention actually meant something, and I'm finding that prospect very exciting

  18. #18
    I love Chaos!

    Should be chaos on both sides so people get to see how the candidates of their respective parties deal with the ups and downs.

    [quote=nuu faaola;2310406]Because that race isn't chaotic enough for you already?[/quote]

  19. #19
    [QUOTE=doggin94it;2310419]You know, its funny, but the Republicans might actually have a nomination fight on their hands after the primaries are played out

    Can't happen on the democrat side, since I doubt anyone other than Clinton or Obama will win even one primary, let alone enough to keep both of them down below 50%, but this could be the first time in my lifetime that a party convention actually meant something, and I'm finding that prospect very exciting[/QUOTE]

    It actually could happen on the Dem side, too, becuase you can win delegates without winning primaries. If neither Obama or Clinton wins enough delegates to clinch the nomination --say, if Obama wins SC, Nevada and most of Super Tuesday, but Clinton nabs California and NY-- and Edwards keeps getting 15% to 25% finishes, he'll pile up enough delegates to potentially pick the winner on the floor by wielding his delegates. That would be pretty wild.

  20. #20
    [QUOTE=angry jets fan;2310437]I love Chaos!

    Should be chaos on both sides so people get to see how the candidates of their respective parties deal with the ups and downs.[/QUOTE]

    Agreed.

    Even as an Obama supporter, the one good thing about him losing NH, to me, is that he'll have to be tested more in order to win. The electorate wouldn;t have learned enough about him if he just got coronated after two quick votes in six days.

    Now, millions of voters will see if he can fight.

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