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Thread: Obama wins Vermont in a rout

  1. #1

    Obama wins Vermont in a rout

    ... as expected. He'll probably net at least a 3-5 delegate margin there.

    Drudge says the exit polls in RI, Texas and Ohio are "deadlocked." Not that exit polls are worth anything anyhow, but further evidence of a late night ahead for those who follow this stuff.

    Interesting that RI is so close, as it was supposed to be as one sided for Hillary as Vermont was for Obama. Figure she probably still wins, but gets a smaller delegate/popular vote margin than expected, which does matter.

  2. #2
    [QUOTE=nuu faaola;2411604]... as expected. He'll probably net at least a 3-5 delegate margin there.

    Drudge says the exit polls in RI, Texas and Ohio are "deadlocked." Not that exit polls are worth anything anyhow, but further evidence of a late night ahead for those who follow this stuff.

    Interesting that RI is so close, as it was supposed to be as one sided for Hillary as Vermont was for Obama. Figure she probably still wins, but gets a smaller delegate/popular vote margin than expected, which does matter.[/QUOTE]

    :clapper::clapper::clapper::clapper:

  3. #3
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    What the heck is wrong with your party?

    [QUOTE]POLL: Should She Stay or Should She Go?
    By a Large Margin, Dems Want Clinton to Remain in Race Even if She Loses Texas or Ohio
    ANALYSIS by GARY LANGER

    March 4, 2008 —

    Democrats by more than a 2-1 margin say Hillary Clinton should stay in the presidential race even if she loses either the Texas or Ohio primary on Tuesday. But if she fails in both, fewer than half say they'd want her to fight on.

    Many, in that case, have another idea for Clinton: the vice presidency.

    The lead overall is now Barack Obama's. With his string of 11 consecutive primary and caucus victories, Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents by a 50-43 percent margin would like to see him nominated. That's a remarkable reversal: Clinton held a vast lead in ABC News/Washington Post polls before the Iowa caucuses. Campaigns clearly matter.

    Click here for PDF with charts and full questionnaire.

    Click here for more ABC News polls.

    Despite the overall preference for Obama, Democrats by a very wide 67-29 percent say Clinton should stay in the race even if she loses either Texas or Ohio. But if she were to lose both, far fewer say they'd want her to continue  45 percent, with 51 percent saying otherwise.

    Prospective attitudes, of course, can shift with events -- as vote preferences themselves have shown. At the same time, some within the Clinton campaign, as well as other Democrats, have described Ohio and Texas as must-wins.

    VEEP -- If she were to fail, many Democrats have a runner-up prize in mind. Asked whom they'd like Obama to pick for vice president, should he win the nomination, 36 percent name Clinton, a broad level of agreement on an open-ended question.

    An additional 11 percent of Democrats suggest John Edwards, 3 percent Bill Richardson, 1 percent Al Gore and 1 percent Joe Biden. Clinton leads among all groups, notably among women -- 41 percent pick her for vice president, compared with 28 percent of men.

    There's less agreement on the Republican side, where John McCain has a chance to wrap up the nomination on Tuesday. Seventeen percent of Republicans and GOP-leaning independents say that if he does win, they'd like to see his last standing opponent, Mike Huckabee, on the ticket  half as many as pick Clinton on the Democratic side.

    Eleven percent of Republicans prefer Mitt Romney, with seven other possible picks registering 1 to 3 percent.

    In the Republican race a plurality has no opinion on a hypothetical McCain running-mate. Among Democrats, about as many have no opinion as pick Clinton -- evidence in both cases that it's the top of the ticket that carries the weight.

    STAY or GO -- It's notable that nearly half of Obama's supporters say that a Clinton loss in either Ohio or Texas should not be enough to force her out of the race; it could be that these Democrats simply are enjoying the contest. (Moderates who prefer Obama, rather than liberals, in particular say she should stay in.)

    If she were to lose both states, far fewer Obama supporters -- 26 percent -- say she should keep running. There's also attrition among Clinton's own supporters -- if she loses one state, 91 percent say she should fight on; if she loses both states, 69 percent.

    Two groups, in particular, shift from saying Clinton should stay if she loses one race to saying she should go if she loses both: White men and high-income Democrats. If she were to lose one state, 68 percent of white men say she should remain in the race; if she were to lose both, that drops to 36 percent, a 32-point drop. The decline among white women is much smaller, 19 points.

    Similarly, the decline among people with household incomes over $100,000 is 31 points, compared to just a 13-point drop in those with incomes under $35,000.

    GROUPS -- Rather than measuring vote preference, since 36 states have held their contests by now, this poll instead asked Democrats which candidate they'd like to see win the nomination. Obama does best in his core support groups: younger, better-educated and higher-income Democrats, men and those looking for new ideas.

    Obama leads Clinton by 79-16 percent among African-Americans, almost exactly matching his margin in primaries to date. Critically, he has a 50-41 percent edge among white men, a swing group in this year's primaries. Clinton, for her part, still is favored by a wide margin among white women, 60-35 percent, and by seniors, 52-37 percent.

    The competing themes of experience vs. a new direction continue to animate the contest; among those Democrats who are looking chiefly for a "new direction and new ideas" more than six in 10 would like to see Obama win the nomination; among those more focused on strength and experience, two-thirds prefer Clinton. The difference in this poll is that "new direction" voters are more prevalent than ever.

    In one other change, Obama has more support in this poll from mainline Democrats than from independents. That could in part be because more Americans than usual are identifying themselves as Democrats, with previously Democratic-leaning independents, energized by the campaign, now associating themselves with the party.

    METHODOLOGY -- This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone Feb. 28-March 2, 2008, among a random national sample of 1,126 adults, including an oversample of African-Americans for a total of 215 black respondents (weighted back to their correct share of the national population). The results have a 3-point error margin for the full sample, 4 points for the 629 Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents and 5 points for the 402 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by TNS of Horsham, Pa.

    Click here for PDF with charts and full questionnaire.

    Click here for more ABC News polls.

    Copyright © 2008 ABC News Internet Ventures
    [/QUOTE]

  4. #4
    This is looking bad for Hillary ... because these are four states that favor Hillary (based on demographics, etc.).

    If tonight is a draw or only a slight victory for Hillary, she is done.

    [quote=nuu faaola;2411604]... as expected. He'll probably net at least a 3-5 delegate margin there.

    Drudge says the exit polls in RI, Texas and Ohio are "deadlocked." Not that exit polls are worth anything anyhow, but further evidence of a late night ahead for those who follow this stuff.

    Interesting that RI is so close, as it was supposed to be as one sided for Hillary as Vermont was for Obama. Figure she probably still wins, but gets a smaller delegate/popular vote margin than expected, which does matter.[/quote]

  5. #5
    Hope.

    Change.

    Thank you very much, Obama will be here all week!:P

  6. #6
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    Watching Hillary now..

    SHe makes me sick.

    What is wrong with people...

  7. #7
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    Well there you go. Shillary wins 3 of 4 tonight..

    Nice job dems..

  8. #8
    Its a month out until Pennsylvania, right? I think the debacle with the alleged talks with the Canadian Government really came out to bite Obama in the a$$ tonight. Hopefully, he can pull one or two of the remaining midwestern states. The economy seems to be growing as a hot topic.

    Where is John Edwards? His endorsement of either candidate may be huge at this point. Any word on whether he is planning on endorsing either of the candidates?

    BTW, as a Cuban-American, I cannot figure out why the hell the latino community has such a love affair with Hillary.

  9. #9
    but hillary won everywhere else.

  10. #10
    Got to love this, looks like we may see a brokered convention. Look for Obama to try and steal Florida and Michigan with a caucus and Hillary to steal the Super Delegates.

    Thunder Dome at the Convention. Two go in one comes out.

  11. #11
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    [IMG]http://www.globalpov.com/images/cryptkeeper.jpg[/IMG]

    Vote for me...John McCain. I fart dust, won't increase taxes and promise you all that there is nothing to hope for. We are all going to die, life is hell.

  12. #12
    [QUOTE=PlumberKhan;2412640][IMG]http://www.globalpov.com/images/cryptkeeper.jpg[/IMG]

    Vote for me...John McCain. I fart dust, won't increase taxes and promise you all that there is nothing to hope for. We are all going to die, life is hell.[/QUOTE]

    lol kinda sounds like that too

    hey GOP'ers before you get too excited remember this:

    in 200 plus years of American democracy, one truth has held fast:

    the electorate punishes the party in power which put them into recession.

  13. #13
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    [QUOTE=bitonti;2412642]lol kinda sounds like that too

    hey GOP'ers before you get too excited remember this:

    in 200 plus years of American democracy, one truth has held fast:

    the electorate punishes the party in power which put them into recession.[/QUOTE]

    What happened to Obamamania? I thought it couldn't be stopped?

  14. #14
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    [QUOTE=intelligentjetsfan;2411606]:clapper::clapper::clapper::clapper:[/QUOTE]:funnyguy::funnyguy: Guess you were a little premature in your celebration.

  15. #15
    [QUOTE=bitonti;2412642]lol kinda sounds like that too

    hey GOP'ers before you get too excited remember this:

    in 200 plus years of American democracy, one truth has held fast:

    the electorate punishes the party in power which put them into recession.[/QUOTE]

    I thought the Democrats were the party in power? Lame Duck President Pelosi and Reid run the Congress.

  16. #16
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    [QUOTE=Winstonbiggs;2412727]I thought the Democrats were the party in power? Lame Duck President Pelosi and Reid run the Congress.[/QUOTE]

    Ahhh...the old "buck stops over there, at that persons desk, not mine" routine...

  17. #17
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    [QUOTE=HDCentStOhio;2412712]:funnyguy::funnyguy: Guess you were a little premature in your celebration.[/QUOTE]

    obama lunatics on suicide watch today......

    [IMG]http://i.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2008/POLITICS/03/05/march.4.contests/t1land.hill.wed.05.ap.jpg[/IMG]

    "[B][I]dat be u- ignantjetsfan[/I][/B]"....
    Last edited by Come Back to NY; 03-05-2008 at 09:32 AM.

  18. #18
    [QUOTE=Come Back to NY;2412783]obama lunatics on suicide watch today......

    [IMG]http://i.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2008/POLITICS/03/05/march.4.contests/t1land.hill.wed.05.ap.jpg[/IMG]

    "dat be u- ignantjetsfan"....[/QUOTE]

    No suicide watch here. Obviously not pleased with last night, but on to Mississippi, etc. next week, Pennsylvania in April, NC, etc. in May and perhaps beyond.

    As an Obama supporter, it's a setback. But as someone who is interested in politics and history, its kind of cool to see an epic campaign like this.

  19. #19
    [QUOTE=PlumberKhan;2412640][IMG]http://www.globalpov.com/images/cryptkeeper.jpg[/IMG]

    Vote for me...John McCain. I fart dust, won't increase taxes and promise you all that there is nothing to hope for. We are all going to die, life is hell.[/QUOTE]

    Anything to change the subject, eh PK?

  20. #20
    I hope that Clinton and Obama fight for the Democratic nomination goes well into the summer because it will cause them to distance themselves on issues. They’re too similar.

    This is pure fantasy and speculation, but I hope it causes a massive split in the party and forces the Democrats into two smaller factions. This way in the fall we have McCain (Republican), Clinton (Democrat), Obama (Labor Party or something), Nader (Independent), and whoever is the Libertarian Party candidate.

    Then again… hoping to see one of the two duopolies break into smaller factions is mostly wishful thinking at this point.

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