Results 1 to 15 of 15

Thread: Why Chamberlain should be a stater, the economic part of it...

  1. #1
    Banned
    Join Date
    Jan 2007
    Posts
    31,171
    Post Thanks / Like

    Why Chamberlain should be a stater, the economic part of it...

    http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slu...yhoo&type=lgns

    Chamberlain holds a starting gun

    By Vince Gennaro, Special to Yahoo! Sports 2 hours, 31 minutes ago

    The New York Yankees’ 2007 playoff run had barely ended when Hank Steinbrenner declared that hard-throwing rookie right-hander Joba Chamberlain would be installed in the Yankees starting rotation for 2008. As spring training approached, however, others weighed in and the decision was made for Chamberlain to begin the season in the Yankees bullpen. Some say the change was made to manage the young pitcher’s workload, others point out that the Yankees have a surplus of starters and that Chamberlain would add more value as the eighth-inning setup man – the bridge to closer Mariano Rivera.

    Although the short-term decision appears locked in, a number of factors will determine whether Chamberlain remains a reliever beyond this season. For a 22-year-old pitcher armed with a 100 mph fastball, Chamberlain has developed an impressive array of secondary pitches, which could enhance his ability to convert to a starter.

    Beyond baseball considerations, another important variable in the debate is the economic impact on the Yankees. Chamberlain is a valuable asset – beyond the fact that the Yankees made him the 41st overall pick in the 2006 amateur draft. How they choose to deploy the asset will impact the financial return on their investment and determine Chamberlain’s earning potential.

    A look at the going rate for pitching talent provides insight into where Chamberlain can be most valuable. I recently applied statistical analysis to the more than 70 free-agent signings over the last four months. In doing so, I was able to estimate the going rate for pitchers based on both their role – starter, middle reliever, closer – and their level of performance, measured by win shares from “Hardball Times.”

    My analysis suggests that a true staff ace – the likes of Josh Beckett, Jake Peavy, Brandon Webb, and C.C. Sabathia – could command an annual salary of around $19 million per year in the current free-agent market. A No. 2 starter – comparable to Chien Ming-Wang, A.J.Burnett, Tim Hudson, and Kelvim Escobar – would be priced in the $14 million per year range.

    A more conservative placement for Chamberlain may be a No. 3 starter – pitchers such as Jamie Moyer, Jeff Suppan, Tim Wakefield and Ted Lilly. I estimate pitchers of this caliber could command approximately $9 million per year.

    How much would an eighth-inning setup man command? My analysis says the best of the setup men – the likes of Hideki Okajima, Rafael Betancourt, Tom Gordon and Brian Fuentes – would be paid an estimated $5 million per year. (See Figure 1 for the market values of the five slots in the starting rotation, as well as closer and setup roles.)



    This analysis shows that the Yankees would derive almost twice as much financial value from having Chamberlain in the role of No. 3 starter instead of the setup role. The fact that the Yankees may have other options to fill the No. 3 role inexpensively (e.g., Phil Hughes) doesn’t change the economics of the market.

    By placing Chamberlain in the starting rotation versus the bullpen, the Yankees stand to gain more than $24 million in value over the next six years before he is eligible for free agency.

    The value could be even greater when we consider that a commitment to a No. 3 starter via free-agency would come in the form of a multi-year contract, which is fraught with injury risk. Chamberlain could be retained on a series of one-year contracts, minimizing the Yankees’ exposure to risk of a catastrophic injury. Should he perform at the level of a No. 2 starter, he would be worth about $50 million versus a setup role.

    A few years from now, the Yankees may be faced with another decision – whether to have Chamberlain succeed Rivera, once the legendary closer retires. Depending on Chamberlain’s success as a starter, this might be a much tougher call, particularly since Rivera’s new three-year, $45 million contract called for a 42 percent raise over last season, dramatically increasing the pay scale for closers.

    Yankees general manager Brian Cashman and the Steinbrenners will determine where Chamberlain can be most effective. Giving the team the best chance to win will be the overriding factor, but the economics of the decision shouldn’t be ignored, even by the cash-flush Yankees.

    Vince Gennaro is a consultant to several Major League Baseball teams and the author of “Diamond Dollars: The Economics of Winning in Baseball,” an innovative look at the business of baseball. This followed a 20-year career at PepsiCo, where he was president of a billion-dollar division. Gennaro teaches a graduate course on the business of baseball in the Sports Business Management program at Manhattanville College
    .
    Last edited by Tyler Durden; 03-06-2008 at 10:32 PM.

  2. #2
    All League
    Join Date
    Apr 2006
    Location
    Iowa
    Posts
    4,561
    Post Thanks / Like
    I literally just about choked on the apple I'm eating when I read the thread title. Like the economic part of it matters with the Yankees.

  3. #3
    Banned
    Join Date
    Jan 2007
    Posts
    31,171
    Post Thanks / Like
    Quote Originally Posted by iahawkeyejet View Post
    I literally just about choked on the apple I'm eating when I read the thread title. Like the economic part of it matters with the Yankees.
    Of course it does. They make more money numb nuts.

  4. #4
    All League
    Join Date
    Apr 2006
    Location
    Iowa
    Posts
    4,561
    Post Thanks / Like
    Quote Originally Posted by Sean Ryan View Post
    Of course it does. They make more money numb nuts.
    Their payroll is going to be different this year if he is the third stater this year? I'll admit I didn't read the article and I probably won't, but I don't see their 25 man roster being any different regardless of what spot he pitches in.

  5. #5
    Banned
    Join Date
    Jan 2007
    Posts
    31,171
    Post Thanks / Like
    Quote Originally Posted by iahawkeyejet View Post
    Their payroll is going to be different this year if he is the third stater this year? I'll admit I didn't read the article and I probably won't, but I don't see their 25 man roster being any different regardless of what spot he pitches in.
    I don't know, it's just another angle to look at on this whole Joba debate.

  6. #6
    All Pro
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
    Location
    In transit
    Posts
    6,130
    Post Thanks / Like
    Quote Originally Posted by Sean Ryan View Post
    I don't know, it's just another angle to look at on this whole Joba debate.
    It's another angle, but it's silly. Which is more valuable, an 8th inning guy or a real good starter. And anyone who says being a reliever is easier on the arm is fooling themselves. John Smlotz always said being a starter was easier. You get into a routine, and you have days off. A reliever may throw 4 days a week.

  7. #7
    All League
    Join Date
    Jan 2008
    Posts
    3,638
    Post Thanks / Like
    I just think that this year, and this year only, they really need Joba in the bullpen, because it will be a black hole between starter and Mo all season.

    I also think it is harder to find a stud closer than a stud starter.....

    but who knows, maybe it isn't

  8. #8
    All Pro
    Join Date
    Dec 2003
    Posts
    8,489
    Post Thanks / Like
    Sure, that's another reason. The main reason, for me, is that you can find great closers much easier than dominant ace starters on the market.

  9. #9
    All Pro
    Join Date
    Dec 2003
    Posts
    8,489
    Post Thanks / Like
    Quote Originally Posted by piney View Post
    I just think that this year, and this year only, they really need Joba in the bullpen, because it will be a black hole between starter and Mo all season.
    Then you set his timetable to give you 200 innings out of the rotation back another year.

  10. #10
    Veteran
    Join Date
    Apr 2003
    Posts
    2,283
    Post Thanks / Like
    Hey JWF maybe you should change your sig. This little snippet about Chamberlain from Peter Abraham's blog.


    You have to hand it to Joba Chamberlain, he has the Nuke LaLoosh cliches down to a science.

    Here’s what Joba had to say about the Yankees renewing his contract for $390,000:

    “I don’t play the game to get paid. I play the game to enjoy it and love it. The paycheck’s a bonus. What do I have to complain about?”

    Golly, that’s sweet. Some people even believed it.

    What Joba didn’t mention is that a team renews a player’s contract only when that player refuses to sign a contract because he’s mad at the amount of money offered.

    Oh, and Joba didn’t pitch in the minors for the Yankees in 2006 because he was holding out for a larger signing bonus after he was drafted. He ended up with $1.15 million. That was the most of any player in the supplemental first round and two players taken in the first round.

    Don’t me wrong, Joba is a good kid and by all accounts he is generous with his money. He should get every dime he can from the Yankees. But spare us the “I don’t play for money” routine.

    Two good rules of thumb to remember when you read sports stories: Injuries are always worse then what the team or athlete says and when somebody says it’s not about the money, it’s really, really about the money.

  11. #11
    All Pro
    Join Date
    Sep 2006
    Location
    Monmouth County
    Posts
    2,137
    Post Thanks / Like
    You have to hand it to Joba Chamberlain, he has the Nuke LaLoosh cliches down to a science.

    Here’s what Joba had to say about the Yankees renewing his contract for $390,000:

    “I don’t play the game to get paid. I play the game to enjoy it and love it. The paycheck’s a bonus. What do I have to complain about?”

    Golly, that’s sweet. Some people even believed it.

    What Joba didn’t mention is that a team renews a player’s contract only when that player refuses to sign a contract because he’s mad at the amount of money offered.

    Oh, and Joba didn’t pitch in the minors for the Yankees in 2006 because he was holding out for a larger signing bonus after he was drafted. He ended up with $1.15 million. That was the most of any player in the supplemental first round and two players taken in the first round.

    Don’t me wrong, Joba is a good kid and by all accounts he is generous with his money. He should get every dime he can from the Yankees. But spare us the “I don’t play for money” routine.

    Two good rules of thumb to remember when you read sports stories: Injuries are always worse then what the team or athlete says and when somebody says it’s not about the money, it’s really, really about the money.
    Just as news comes out about ARod and Posada having sore shoulders.

  12. #12
    Hall Of Fame
    Join Date
    Apr 2003
    Posts
    10,047
    Post Thanks / Like
    i also dont work for the money, i work for the satisfaction of knowing i am putting money in the pockets of our others....

  13. #13
    All League
    Join Date
    Jan 2008
    Posts
    3,638
    Post Thanks / Like
    Quote Originally Posted by JeffWeaverFan View Post
    Then you set his timetable to give you 200 innings out of the rotation back another year.
    then the question to ask is, are you willing, as a yankee fan, to miss the playoffs this year in order to develop these kids?


    these are my thoughts:

    Joba has to become starter equivalent to Josh Beckett, because right now he is a "closer" comparable to comparable.

    Also, when the Yankees were winning championships it was due to the strength of the bookend of the bullpen. They had excellent starters, and I know we all used to say it was like having aces (Wells, Cone, Pettite, Clemens, Key) but the truth of the matter is none of them were the lights out ace equal to Pedro, Beckett, Santana, Halliday, etc. Don't get me wrong, they were very good and got great results, but the also had either Mo, Wettland, Stanton, Nelson, and MEndoza who combined over that run may have been the only reason the Yankees won.

  14. #14
    All Pro
    Join Date
    Dec 2003
    Posts
    8,489
    Post Thanks / Like
    Quote Originally Posted by Chrisrud View Post
    Hey JWF maybe you should change your sig. This little snippet about Chamberlain from Peter Abraham's blog.
    I was aware of all that before Abraham posted it. Him getting above bonus money has nothing to do with it. He was a junior coming out and could have just gone back for his senior year. It wasn't a problematic negotiation though. What Abraham forgot to include is that Bud Selig doesn't allow over the slot signings to become official until as late as possible as a small punishment to teams that go over slot. That's what happened with Joba.

    The point is it is somewhat refreshing to hear someone who doesn't b*tch and complain about starting out making $400,000 for 9 months of work.

  15. #15
    All Pro
    Join Date
    Dec 2003
    Posts
    8,489
    Post Thanks / Like
    Quote Originally Posted by piney View Post
    then the question to ask is, are you willing, as a yankee fan, to miss the playoffs this year in order to develop these kids?
    If that means not going over their innings limit then yes. But Joba moving from the pen to the rotation, where he will be replacing a most likely ineffective (or injured) starter will not hurt our chances of making the playoffs at all.


    Quote Originally Posted by piney View Post
    these are my thoughts:

    Joba has to become starter equivalent to Josh Beckett, because right now he is a "closer" comparable to comparable.
    I don't know what this means exactly.

    Quote Originally Posted by piney View Post
    Also, when the Yankees were winning championships it was due to the strength of the bookend of the bullpen. They had excellent starters, and I know we all used to say it was like having aces (Wells, Cone, Pettite, Clemens, Key) but the truth of the matter is none of them were the lights out ace equal to Pedro, Beckett, Santana, Halliday, etc. Don't get me wrong, they were very good and got great results, but the also had either Mo, Wettland, Stanton, Nelson, and MEndoza who combined over that run may have been the only reason the Yankees won.
    They were all reasons we won. But, it is pretty clear that a great bullpen doesn't mean sh*t if your starters aren't doing the job, and that's what has been the biggest problem for the Yankees in the playoffs in 2004.

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

Follow Us