Results 1 to 17 of 17

Thread: Delegate update

  1. #1
    Jets Insider VIP
    Join Date
    Sep 2005
    Location
    New York, NY
    Posts
    13,566

    Delegate update

    So a look at the scoreboard (according to CNN):

    Including pledged superdelegates:
    Obama 1,611
    Shillary 1,480

    With 931 to go. Which means...

    In order just to tie Obama, Shillary needs to get 531 of the remaining 931. That's 57%. So, basically, it has to beat him by 14 points overall in the remaining states and superdelegates. Dream on, nut job.

    This thing is over. The media won't tell you that, cuz then they're left with nothing. The drama is good for ratings. But truth is, the wicked witch is dead, folks.

    I know I'll sleep better tonight knowing that.

  2. #2
    the prediction markets know this as well

    [url]http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/contractSearch/[/url]

  3. #3
    And winning the superdelegates doesn't mean she's definitely getting their vote. Obama leads in delegates, the superdelegates can change their mind. Even worse for her.

  4. #4
    [QUOTE=John_0515;2428915]And winning the superdelegates doesn't mean she's definitely getting their vote. Obama leads in delegates, the superdelegates can change their mind. Even worse for her.[/QUOTE]

    Of course, Obama's SDs could also change their minds, as he isn't going to pass the clinching threshold either.

    In reality, Hillary's strategy is to beat him in the popular vote, which would require her to beat him handily in PA (possible), beat him handily in revotes in Florida (possible) and Michigan (less likely, but possible), and avoid being beaten handily in decent-sized states like NC and Oregon, where lopsided Obama wins will cancel out her gains (not likely).

    To overcome a certain delegate lead by Obama, she needs to (1) keep her storyline of big- and swing-state superiority alive (she has some point in the big states, the swing states argument is very dubious once you get past Ohio and PA and consider the other "in play" states, most of which Obama has carried), and she needs to win the popular vote.

    That is not impossible, but it is a longshot.

  5. #5
    Veteran
    Join Date
    Feb 2006
    Location
    New York City
    Posts
    1,005
    [QUOTE=nuu faaola;2428936]Of course, Obama's SDs could also change their minds, as he isn't going to pass the clinching threshold either.

    In reality, Hillary's strategy is to beat him in the popular vote, which would require her to beat him handily in PA (possible), beat him handily in revotes in Florida (possible) and Michigan (less likely, but possible), and avoid being beaten handily in decent-sized states like NC and Oregon, where lopsided Obama wins will cancel out her gains (not likely).

    To overcome a certain delegate lead by Obama, she needs to (1) keep her storyline of big- and swing-state superiority alive (she has some point in the big states, the swing states argument is very dubious once you get past Ohio and PA and consider the other "in play" states, most of which Obama has carried), and she needs to win the popular vote.

    That is not impossible, but it is a longshot.[/QUOTE]

    excellent post nuu

  6. #6
    [QUOTE=Guido Monzino;2428903]So a look at the scoreboard (according to CNN):

    Including pledged superdelegates:
    Obama 1,611
    Shillary 1,480

    With 931 to go. Which means...

    In order just to tie Obama, Shillary needs to get 531 of the remaining 931. That's 57%. So, basically, it has to beat him by 14 points overall in the remaining states and superdelegates. Dream on, nut job.

    This thing is over. The media won't tell you that, cuz then they're left with nothing. The drama is good for ratings. But truth is, the wicked witch is dead, folks.

    I know I'll sleep better tonight knowing that.[/QUOTE]


    Remember the Clinton's and Bush's sleep in the same bed, so don't rule out the inevitable cheating that is soon to come about.

    I really hope the Obama contingent can stave off the sleaze until the end!
    I'm really pulling for him.

  7. #7
    Jets Insider VIP
    Join Date
    Sep 2005
    Location
    New York, NY
    Posts
    13,566
    Can someone explain to me why we're being told that neither candidate is likely to reach the required 2,025 delegates?

    Obama needs 414 of the final 931 delegates to reach that number. That's 44% of remaining delegates. Why is this such a stretch?

  8. #8
    Hall Of Fame
    Join Date
    Apr 2003
    Location
    Boston
    Posts
    11,692
    [QUOTE=bigalbarracuda;2429009]excellent post nuu[/QUOTE]

    I don't really think she has to win the popular vote. But otherwise, yeah, good post. Never underestimate the ability of the Democrats to blow what should be a sure thing.....

  9. #9
    Hall Of Fame
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Location
    Not bababooey and I resent the implication
    Posts
    21,029
    [QUOTE=Guido Monzino;2429177]Can someone explain to me why we're being told that neither candidate is likely to reach the required 2,025 delegates?

    Obama needs 414 of the final 931 delegates to reach that number. That's 44% of remaining delegates. Why is this such a stretch?[/QUOTE]

    Won't reach it in pledged delegates...Meaning the supers are going to decide it..

  10. #10
    Jets Insider VIP
    Join Date
    Sep 2005
    Location
    New York, NY
    Posts
    13,566
    [QUOTE=CTM;2429190]Won't reach it in pledged delegates...Meaning the supers are going to decide it..[/QUOTE]

    And how does anyone possibly believe that the supers can in good faith overwhelmingly overrule the pledged delegates? The only message that sends is that the voters really have no say and can go f themselves.

    Good luck beating any Republican after disenfrachising your entire voting base.

  11. #11
    Hall Of Fame
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Location
    Not bababooey and I resent the implication
    Posts
    21,029
    [QUOTE=Guido Monzino;2429205]And how does anyone possibly believe that the supers can in good faith overwhelmingly overrule the pledged delegates? The only message that sends is that the voters really have no say and can go f themselves.

    Good luck beating any Republican after disenfrachising your entire voting base.[/QUOTE]

    A lot of people feel the same, and certainly some SD's do as well. But actually, when you think about it, why have SD's at all if they are 100% governed by the pledged delegates?

  12. #12
    Hall Of Fame
    Join Date
    Apr 2003
    Location
    On some beach... somewhere...
    Posts
    3,735
    Like it or not, the democratic establishment will be making the decision as to who their candidate is.

    The peoples votes won't even matter in the end. The super-delegates will choose who they see fit.

  13. #13
    Veteran
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Location
    Lawn Guyland
    Posts
    1,157
    [QUOTE=BugZyZuncle;2429028]Remember the Clinton's and Bush's sleep in the same bed, so don't rule out the inevitable cheating that is soon to come about.
    I really hope the Obama contingent can stave off the sleaze until the end!
    I'm really pulling for him.[/QUOTE]

    Write this down. Clinton will stop at nothing to gain the nomination and she [B]will get it[/B]. Calling in favors from superdelegates, extortion, cheating, lying, anything. You will see. It will be a sad day for the U S of A. :(

  14. #14
    Jets Insider VIP
    Join Date
    Sep 2005
    Location
    New York, NY
    Posts
    13,566
    [QUOTE=JetFanTransplant;2429235]Like it or not, the democratic establishment will be making the decision as to who their candidate is.

    The peoples votes won't even matter in the end. The super-delegates will choose who they see fit.[/QUOTE]

    If that happens, McCain will be President.

  15. #15
    Hall Of Fame
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Location
    Not bababooey and I resent the implication
    Posts
    21,029
    [QUOTE=EtsFan;2429238]Write this down. Clinton will stop at nothing to gain the nomination and she [B]will get it[/B]. Calling in favors from superdelegates, extortion, cheating, lying, anything. You will see. It will be a sad day for the U S of A. :([/QUOTE]

    Agreed..

    Thank god Rush and his ditto heads are helping out now :rolleyes:

  16. #16
    Jets Insider VIP
    Join Date
    Sep 2005
    Location
    New York, NY
    Posts
    13,566
    [QUOTE=CTM;2429262]Agreed..

    Thank god Rush and his ditto heads are helping out now :rolleyes:[/QUOTE]

    Guys, keep in mind, she's going to have to get in excess of 60% of the remaining supers.

    If that happens, it is not going to be pretty for anyone. Would be a total disgrace.

  17. #17
    I would really like to see Obama push hard in Penn.

    It amazes me that voters, and the Demo. Party can't see through Clinton's plan. She really only plays the large states and dismisses the marginal and small states as being meaningless.

    Is this philosophy a foreshadowing of things to come should she gain the nomination and eventually the presidency? This tells me she doesn't really care about the people of the USA, only her own legacy! Somebody needs to remind her that the US is bigger than she is, that the little man (middle class) is actually the backbone of this country.

    If she miraculously gets the presidency, this country will continue it's downward spiral. Nothing will get done, as the past eight years have shown, except her constituancy will get a lot more wealth.

    MOre people will be out of Jobs as she sends them overseas, gas will continue to skyrocket, food will be less plentiful, etc., etc., etc.

    Anyone who believes that she will discontinue NAFTA is crazy (her husband signed it into law in 93). We will continue to gravitate to the North American Union and our currency will be weaker than the peso, so that the Amero can become our currency.

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

Follow Us