Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast
Results 1 to 20 of 29

Thread: Hey Bitonti

  1. #1
    All Pro
    Annoying Chowd

    Join Date
    Apr 2003
    Posts
    6,263
    Post Thanks / Like

    Hey Bitonti

    Keep making those predictions....

    [url]http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1467[/url]

    [QUOTE]Released: March 15, 2008

    Zogby Poll: McCain Bests Both Obama, Clinton in 3-Way General Election Tests

    Independent candidate Ralph Nader wins 5%, taking more support from Democrats


    UTICA, New York – Riding high after locking up his party’s presidential nomination, Republican John McCain of Arizona has moved ahead of both of his potential Democratic Party rivals in a national general election test, the latest Zogby telephone survey shows.


    Perhaps profiting from the continuing political battle across the aisle, McCain would defeat Hillary Clinton of New York by six points and Barack Obama of Illinois by 5 points, the survey shows. Clinton and Obama are locked in a tight battle to win the Democratic Party nomination, a fight that has grown nasty at times recently and threatens to continue on all summer long until the party’s national convention in Denver this August.

    The telephone survey of 1,001 likely voters nationwide was conducted by live operators calling from Zogby’s call center in Upstate New York on March 13-14, 2008. It carries a margin of error of +/- 3.2 percentage points.
    Prospective General Election Match-up
    3-13/14

    McCain
    45%

    Clinton
    39%

    Nader
    6%

    Not sure/Someone else
    11%


    The introduction of long-time activist Ralph Nader into the mix is having an effect on the race, as he wins enough support to make a difference, the poll shows. Nader entered the race recently, charging that there is little difference between the Republican and Democratic parties and their presidential candidates. Using the same argument eight years ago, his presence on the ballot in Florida may well have tipped the presidential election away from Democrat Al Gore and in favor of George W. Bush. His run four years ago yielded less dramatic results, but the political atmosphere has changed since 2004, and may be more favorable for him again, the Zogby survey shows.

    In the McCain-Clinton-Nader match-up, McCain leads mainly because of a significant advantage among independents. Among those voters, he wins support from 45%, compared to 28% for Clinton and 15% for Nader. McCain wins 79% support from Republicans, while Clinton wins 75% support from Democrats.

    Clinton leads only among those voters under age 30, while McCain leads among all voters over age 30. Nader also does well among the young, winning 12% support among those under age 30. Among men, McCain leads 51% to 33% for Clinton. Among women, Clinton leads, 45% to 40% for McCain. Nader wins 8% among men and 3% among women.

    Nader also does particularly well as a third-party candidate among progressives, winning 15% support from the group that would very likely otherwise go to Clinton were he not in the race. At the other end of the ideological scale, he wins 12% among libertarians. He also wins 6% support among both conservatives and liberals.
    Prospective General Election Match-up
    3-13/14

    McCain
    44%

    Obama
    39%

    Nader
    5%

    Not sure/Someone else
    11%


    In the McCain-Obama-Nader match-up, the independent candidate is having the same effect. Nader wins 15% support among political independents nationwide.

    Ideologically, Nader wins 18% support among progressives, and 12% among libertarians. He does less well among mainline conservatives and liberals compared to the match-up including Clinton.

    An interesting factor in this race: the inroads McCain has made into Obama’s base and vice versa. McCain wins 19% support from Democrats, while Obama captures just 67% of voters in his own party. Obama wins 15% support among Republicans, compared to 73% for McCain.

    As is the case in the McCain-Clinton-Nader contest, Obama wins among voters under age 30, while McCain leads among all voters age 30 and older. Nader wins 15% support among those under age 30, but has little support among older voters.

    Among men, McCain leads Obama 48% to 34%, while Obama holds a slim 43% to 41% edge over McCain among women. Nader wins 6% among men and 4% among women.

    Pollster John Zogby: “Nader’s presence in the race can potentially turn a lulu of a race into an absolute tizzy. The messages to Democrats are clear – number one, Nader may win enough support to get into the general election debates. Number two, what could be at risk is support among several key constituencies that the Democratic Party candidate will need to win in November, notably younger voters, independents, and progressives.”

    For a complete methodological statement on this survey, please visit:
    [url]http://www.zogby.com/methodology/readmeth.dbm?ID=1287[/url][/QUOTE]

  2. #2
    Hall Of Fame
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Location
    Long Island & Section 337
    Posts
    4,859
    Post Thanks / Like
    [QUOTE=DeanPatsFan;2441094]Keep making those predictions....

    [url]http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1467[/url][/QUOTE]

    Dean is on a roll the last few days. :yes:

  3. #3
    Hall Of Fame
    Join Date
    Apr 2003
    Location
    Philly
    Posts
    38,782
    Post Thanks / Like
    read the article smart guy there's a 5% gap between Obama and McCain and a +/- 3.2% margin of error.

    take that into account, along with the facts that 1) democrats are split now 2) Nader getting 5% is generous 3) 11% are still unsure

    im still very comfortable in my predictions

    you GOPers are living in the dream world. 2006 elections was a referendum on Bush, as will 2008 elections. Bush isn't on the ballot but his party is.

  4. #4
    All Pro
    Annoying Chowd

    Join Date
    Apr 2003
    Posts
    6,263
    Post Thanks / Like
    [QUOTE=bitonti;2441126]read the article smart guy there's a 5% gap between Obama and McCain and a +/- 3.2% margin of error.

    [/QUOTE]

    So you're saying McCain might be up by 8%? :D

  5. #5
    Hall Of Fame
    Join Date
    Feb 2006
    Location
    Van down by the river
    Posts
    22,433
    Post Thanks / Like
    [QUOTE=bitonti;2441126]read the article smart guy there's a 5% gap between Obama and McCain and a +/- 3.2% margin of error.

    take that into account, along with the facts that 1) democrats are split now 2) Nader getting 5% is generous 3) 11% are still unsure

    im still very comfortable in my predictions

    you GOPers are living in the dream world. 2006 elections was a referendum on Bush, as will 2008 elections. Bush isn't on the ballot but his party is.[/QUOTE]

    Well sure...that's the conclusion one can make after reading the whole article.

    But Dean is still right if you get distracted after reading the headline...

  6. #6
    Hall Of Fame
    Join Date
    Apr 2003
    Location
    Philly
    Posts
    38,782
    Post Thanks / Like
    [QUOTE=DeanPatsFan;2441133]So you're saying McCain might be up by 8%? :D[/QUOTE]

    let me also remind you that as CBNY likes to point out twice a week, prior to the 2004 election Kerry was favored over Bush in all major polls. Day of the election it didn't work out that way.

    So if Polls weren't relevant in 2004 they aren't relevant in 2008.

  7. #7
    All Pro
    Annoying Chowd

    Join Date
    Apr 2003
    Posts
    6,263
    Post Thanks / Like
    [QUOTE=bitonti;2441144]let me also remind you that as CBNY likes to point out twice a week, prior to the 2004 election Kerry was favored over Bush in all major polls. Day of the election it didn't work out that way.

    So if Polls weren't relevant in 2004 they aren't relevant in 2008.[/QUOTE]

    I'm not saying polls are relevant. It's just that you seem be to sure the chosen one has this all wrapped up. Don't be.

  8. #8
    Jets Insider VIP
    JetsInsider.com Legend
    Charter JI Member

    Join Date
    May 1999
    Posts
    31,407
    Post Thanks / Like
    [QUOTE=bitonti;2441144]let me also remind you that as CBNY likes to point out twice a week, prior to the 2004 election Kerry was favored over Bush in all major polls. Day of the election it didn't work out that way.

    So if Polls weren't relevant in 2004 they aren't relevant in 2008.[/QUOTE]

    wrong...what I point out twice a week is your miserable history of failed predictions on this forum from the '04 elections based on JA ratings to the haditha marines being guilty of atrocities to the duke lax kids being guilty of murder to SC judge Roberts being a liberal judge....

    sh!t- you were even dead wrong on this post....:shakehead

  9. #9
    JetsInsider.com Legend
    Join Date
    Jan 2004
    Posts
    37,686
    Post Thanks / Like
    In fairness, Bit is hardly the only guy making a "Republicans Get Stomped" prediction. I know I've said almost from the start I believe 2008 is the Dems to lose.

    And that was before the utterly unmotivating psudo-lib McCain won the Nomination.

    I think the reason polls show what they do today is the divissiveness between Clinton/Obama. Once that passes, and the Dem support unifies, it'll be a 5-10% lead by the Dems IMO.

    Not what I want, just what I see happening.

  10. #10
    All Pro
    Join Date
    Mar 2005
    Posts
    7,680
    Post Thanks / Like
    [QUOTE=HDCentStOhio;2441099]Dean is on a roll the last few days. :yes:[/QUOTE]

    [url]http://blogs.pcworld.com/staffblog/archives/lapdog3337.jpg[/url]
    [url]http://images.buycostumes.com/mgen/merchandiser/8015.jpg[/url]

  11. #11
    Hall Of Fame
    Join Date
    Apr 2003
    Location
    Philly
    Posts
    38,782
    Post Thanks / Like
    [QUOTE=Come Back to NY;2441184]wrong...what I point out twice a week is your miserable history of failed predictions on this forum [/QUOTE]

    CBNY i take it as a compliment that you think so highly of my opinion that you would track it down and keep it for future reference. Thanks, Buddy.

  12. #12
    Hall Of Fame
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Location
    Long Island & Section 337
    Posts
    4,859
    Post Thanks / Like
    [QUOTE=kennyo7;2441202][url]http://blogs.pcworld.com/staffblog/archives/lapdog3337.jpg[/url]
    [url]http://images.buycostumes.com/mgen/merchandiser/8015.jpg[/url][/QUOTE]
    Wow, you got me there.:rolleyes:

  13. #13
    Banned
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Posts
    848
    Post Thanks / Like
    [QUOTE=Warfish;2441194]psudo-lib McCain[/QUOTE]

    Nothing pseudo about it, he's a bonafide lib. ;)

  14. #14
    All Pro
    Join Date
    Jul 2003
    Posts
    6,162
    Post Thanks / Like
    [QUOTE=Warfish;2441194]I know I've said almost from the start I believe 2008 is the Dems to lose.[/QUOTE]
    I kid you not, barring major sea-changes (and, frankly, that's almost likely) the Republicans are well poised to keep the White House and even gain House seats.

    Two reasons:

    1) Obama - imploding.

    2) Hillary - wicked witch.

  15. #15
    JetsInsider.com Legend
    Join Date
    Jan 2004
    Posts
    37,686
    Post Thanks / Like
    [QUOTE=sackdance;2441394]I kid you not, barring major sea-changes (and, frankly, that's almost likely) the Republicans are well poised to keep the White House and even gain House seats.

    Two reasons:

    1) Obama - imploding.

    2) Hillary - wicked witch.[/QUOTE]

    I disagree. I think us Politics-junkies overestimate how valid the way WE see things are vs. how the general voting public sees things.

    To the general public, Obama is not imploding. And by the time the election rolls around, all of the froth today will be long gone and forgotten.

    As for Hillary, the general public likes her alot more than we give credit.....same way they liked her husband.

  16. #16
    All Pro
    Join Date
    Jul 2003
    Posts
    6,162
    Post Thanks / Like
    [QUOTE=Warfish;2441419]
    To the general public, Obama is not imploding. And by the time the election rolls around, all of the froth today will be long gone and forgotten.[/QUOTE]
    I disagree. The first polls post-Wright look awful for Obama, as his popularity surge has stopped in his tracks. What's more, he has done very little to counter the highly charged racial animosity within his candidacy.

    That highly publicized uber-eloquent speech? Meant nothing. How funny (arrogant) it is of Obama's handlers to think that Obama could just give a speech and undo the damage that his campaign has sustained.

    If his racial views, as perceived by the company he keeps, is enough to blunt Democratic primary voters, how will that play in a general election vs. a popular, if bland, moderate? Like the wrong end of a landslide, that's how.

    And there are plenty of Democrats who would agree that Bill/Hill 2.0 ain't gonna catch fire.

  17. #17
    Hall Of Fame
    Join Date
    Apr 2003
    Location
    Philly
    Posts
    38,782
    Post Thanks / Like
    [QUOTE=sackdance;2441481]
    That highly publicized uber-eloquent speech? Meant nothing. [/QUOTE]


    to rock ribbed conservatives, yeah you are right it meant nothing

    to Dems it meant something, and probably independants too.

  18. #18
    Jets Insider VIP
    Join Date
    Jan 2005
    Posts
    14,769
    Post Thanks / Like
    It has been very entertaining listening to the rightwing radio hosts talk about Obama the last couple of days.

    If you say something enough it becomes fact. Sad, but Rove has shown it works. All you have to do is attack your foe and minimize your own bs and you have a chance to win.

    Obama should thank GW for giving him the best chance to win. GW has destroyed the GOP.

  19. #19
    JetsInsider.com Legend
    Join Date
    Jan 2004
    Posts
    37,686
    Post Thanks / Like
    [QUOTE=sackdance;2441481]I disagree. The first polls post-Wright look awful for Obama, as his popularity surge has stopped in his tracks. What's more, he has done very little to counter the highly charged racial animosity within his candidacy.

    That highly publicized uber-eloquent speech? Meant nothing. How funny (arrogant) it is of Obama's handlers to think that Obama could just give a speech and undo the damage that his campaign has sustained.

    If his racial views, as perceived by the company he keeps, is enough to blunt Democratic primary voters, how will that play in a general election vs. a popular, if bland, moderate? Like the wrong end of a landslide, that's how.

    And there are plenty of Democrats who would agree that Bill/Hill 2.0 ain't gonna catch fire.[/QUOTE]

    Yet you're buying into the idea that McCain, possibly the most uncharismatic, ugly (sorry, but looks count in elections, sadly) and "old Washington" candidate possible is somehow going to inspire his way to a win.

    McCain canot even inspire a good chunk of his own party and side. But you expect he's going to win anyway, eh?

    I don't buy polls, I didn't int he past when lefties claimed it meant everything (but didn't) and I don't now. McCain is a loser waiting to happen, Bob Dole but worse.

  20. #20
    Jets Insider VIP
    JetsInsider.com Legend
    Charter JI Member

    Join Date
    May 1999
    Posts
    31,407
    Post Thanks / Like
    [QUOTE=bitonti;2441628]to rock ribbed conservatives, yeah you are right it meant nothing

    to Dems it meant something, and probably independants too.[/QUOTE]

    hmmmmm...looks like you may be wrong there to sport....

    [url]http://www.gallup.com/poll/105205/Gallup-Daily-Clinton-Moves-Into-Lead-Over-Obama.aspx[/url]

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

Follow Us