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Thread: If McCain vs. Obama; Only 28% of Clinton Backers Go for McCain

  1. #1
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    If McCain vs. Obama; Only 28% of Clinton Backers Go for McCain

    [QUOTE][B]If McCain vs. Obama, 28% of Clinton Backers Go for McCainIf McCain vs. Clinton, 19% of Obama backers go for McCainUSA Democrats Election 2008 Government and Politics Americas Northern America by Frank Newport[/B]

    PRINCETON, NJ -- A sizable proportion of Democrats would vote for John McCain next November if he is matched against the candidate they do not support for the Democratic nomination. This is particularly true for Hillary Clinton supporters, more than a quarter of whom currently say they would vote for McCain if Barack Obama is the Democratic nominee.

    [IMG]http://media.gallup.com/poll/graphs/20080326democrats1.gif[/IMG]

    These conclusions are based on an analysis of Democratic voters' responses to separate voting questions in March 7-22 Gallup Poll Daily election tracking. In each day's survey, respondents are asked for their general election preferences in McCain-Clinton and McCain-Obama pairings. Democratic voters are then asked whom they support for their party's nomination.

    The accompanying graph displays the results of the relationship between support for the Democratic Party's nomination and the general election vote between Obama and McCain.

    [IMG]http://media.gallup.com/poll/graphs/20080326democrats2.gif[/IMG]

    As would be expected, almost all Democratic voters who say they support Obama for their party's nomination also say they would vote for him in a general election matchup against McCain. But only 59% of Democratic voters who support Clinton say they would vote for Obama against McCain, while 28% say they would vote for the Republican McCain. This suggests that some Clinton supporters are so strongly opposed to Obama (or so loyal to Clinton) that they would go so far as to vote for the "other" party's candidate next November if Obama is the Democratic nominee.

    The results follow the same pattern, but not to quite the same extent, when the relationship between Democratic support and a general election matchup between Clinton and McCain is examined.

    [IMG]http://media.gallup.com/poll/graphs/20080326democrats3.gif[/IMG]

    Here again, as expected, almost all of those who support Clinton for the Democratic Party's nomination say they would vote for her against McCain. Seventy-two percent of those who support Obama for the party's nomination would vote for Clinton against McCain, while 19% would desert and vote for the Republican.

    Implications

    The data suggest that the continuing and sometimes fractious Democratic nomination fight could have a negative impact for the Democratic Party in next November's election. A not insignificant percentage of both Obama and Clinton supporters currently say they would vote for McCain if he ends up running against the candidate they do not support.

    Clinton supporters appear to be somewhat more reactive than Obama supporters. Twenty-eight percent of the former indicate that if Clinton is not the nominee -- and Obama is -- they would support McCain. That compares to 19% of Obama supporters who would support McCain if Obama is not the nominee -- and Clinton is.

    It is unknown how many Democrats would actually carry through and vote for a Republican next fall if their preferred candidate does not become the Democratic nominee. The Democratic campaign is in the heat of battle at the moment, but by November, there will have been several months of attempts to build party unity around the eventual nominee -- and a focus on reasons why the Republican nominee needs to be defeated.

    Additionally, some threat of deserting the party always takes place as party nomination battles are waged, and this threat can dissipate. For example, in answer to a recent Gallup question, 11% of Republicans said they would vote for the Democratic candidate or a third-party candidate next fall if McCain does not choose a vice president who is considerably more conservative than he is. (And another 9% said they just wouldn't vote.) These results suggest that it may be normal for some voters to claim early on in the process -- perhaps out of frustration -- that they will desert their party if certain things do not happen to their liking. And it may be equally likely that they fall back into line by the time of the general election. It is worth noting that in Gallup's historical final pre-election polls from 1992 to 2004, 10% or less of Republicans and Democrats typically vote for the other party's presidential candidate.

    Still, when almost 3 out of 10 Clinton supporters say they would vote for McCain over Obama, it suggests that divisions are running deep within the Democratic Party. If the fight for the party's nomination were to continue until the Denver convention in late August, the Democratic Party could suffer some damage as it tries to regroup for the November general election.

    Survey Methods

    Results are based on telephone interviews with 6,657 national Democratic voters, aged 18 and older, conducted March 7-22, 2008. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is 2 percentage points.

    Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones (for respondents with a land-line telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only).

    In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

    [/QUOTE]

    [url]http://www.gallup.com/poll/105691/McCain-vs-Obama-28-Clinton-Backers-McCain.aspx[/url]

    sit back, grab a beer :pint: and watch the rats implode.....

  2. #2
    What? You liberals don't like this thread do ya? I mean you guys are liars if you don't admit your worried. You have 28% jumping ship if Obama is the Nom. You guys are basically in a dead heap with us in a general election poll, and thats with republican president and his 30% approval rating.

  3. #3
    [QUOTE=Come Back to NY;2451572][url]http://www.gallup.com/poll/105691/McCain-vs-Obama-28-Clinton-Backers-McCain.aspx[/url]

    sit back, grab a beer :pint: and watch the rats implode.....[/QUOTE]

    I think it would be more interesting if this broke down which states had the most Democrat Defectors...

    I would find it hard to believe that McCain wins any true blue states, and vice-versa for Obama.

    The real story would be the big states in the election.

    I also think there is a very good chance, once the general election is afoot, that a percentage of those polled now, will probably flip back....

    just my opinion, but in March when both candidates are still running for the nomination, it is hard for me to take this as a fait accompli

  4. #4
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    [QUOTE=Come Back to NY;2451572][url]http://www.gallup.com/poll/105691/McCain-vs-Obama-28-Clinton-Backers-McCain.aspx[/url]

    sit back, grab a beer :pint: and watch the rats implode.....[/QUOTE]

    They are killing themselves aren't they..

    F'in morons..

    This should've been a shoe in for them..

  5. #5
    [QUOTE=piney;2451583]I think it would be more interesting if this broke down which states had the most Democrat Defectors...

    I would find it hard to believe that McCain wins any true blue states, and vice-versa for Obama.

    The real story would be the big states in the election.

    I also think there is a very good chance, once the general election is afoot, that a percentage of those polled now, will probably flip back....

    just my opinion, but in March when both candidates are still running for the nomination, it is hard for me to take this as a fait accompli[/QUOTE]

    Exactly. These numbers are exacerbated by the nasty primary, which just had a particularly nasty week. Most of these voters will come back to the fold once the stark policy choices between Obama and McCain become clearer. There will be huge differences on issues like Iraq, healthcare, abortion, etc. that matter a lot to the democratic base.

    History suggests this will be the case. As there was almost identical doomsaying polling during the nasty Bush-McCain race in 2000, yet most of the McCain voters backed Bush despite earlier vowing not to.

    That poll here:

    [url]http://www.pollster.com/blogs/some_context_on_the_democratic.php[/url]

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    [QUOTE=nuu faaola;2451710]Exactly. These numbers are exacerbated by the nasty primary, which just had a particularly nasty week. Most of these voters will come back to the fold once the stark policy choices between Obama and McCain become clearer. There will be huge differences on issues like Iraq, healthcare, abortion, etc. that matter a lot to the democratic base.

    History suggests this will be the case. As there was almost identical doomsaying polling during the nasty Bush-McCain race in 2000, yet most of the McCain voters backed Bush despite earlier vowing not to.

    That poll here:

    [url]http://www.pollster.com/blogs/some_context_on_the_democratic.php[/url][/QUOTE]

    of course the huge difference is the rat candidacy is not likely to be over anytime soon, unlike the GOP in 2000- and this is going to be strung out through the summer...

  7. #7
    [QUOTE=nuu faaola;2451710]Exactly. These numbers are exacerbated by the nasty primary, which just had a particularly nasty week. Most of these voters will come back to the fold once the stark policy choices between Obama and McCain become clearer. There will be huge differences on issues like Iraq, healthcare, abortion, etc. that matter a lot to the democratic base.

    History suggests this will be the case. As there was almost identical doomsaying polling during the nasty Bush-McCain race in 2000, yet most of the McCain voters backed Bush despite earlier vowing not to.

    That poll here:

    [url]http://www.pollster.com/blogs/some_context_on_the_democratic.php[/url][/QUOTE]

    I do think there will be some moderate dems who will go for McCain, but, nothing near the number quoted here...my guess...

    under 10%...

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    [QUOTE=piney;2451730]I do think there will be some moderate dems who will go for McCain, but, nothing near the number quoted here...my guess...

    under 10%...[/QUOTE]

    You could be right. This poll is being taken at a time of deep animosity between Clinton and Obama, and their respective supporters. I think after the Dems nominate one of them and a few months pass tempers will cool and these numbers will likely go down. BUT, it is still a very worrying sign if you're a Democrat.

    Can't ignore the likelihood that Republicans are trying to capitalize on this and fuel the fire as well. Many seem to be registering as Dems or Independents (where Indies are allowed to vote in either primary) so that they can support Hillary and keep the infighting between the Dems going. Very clever.

  9. #9
    [QUOTE=jetstream23;2451792]You could be right. This poll is being taken at a time of deep animosity between Clinton and Obama, and their respective supporters. I think after the Dems nominate one of them and a few months pass tempers will cool and these numbers will likely go down. BUT, it is still a very worrying sign if you're a Democrat.

    Can't ignore the likelihood that Republicans are trying to capitalize on this and fuel the fire as well. Many seem to be registering as Dems or Independents (where Indies are allowed to vote in either primary) so that they can support Hillary and keep the infighting between the Dems going. Very clever.[/QUOTE]

    the problem then is how far left does McCain go to curry the Clinton supporters? How does that affect the base of the republican party?

    I think it could be a double-edged sword for him.

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    [QUOTE=piney;2451803]the problem then is how far left does McCain go to curry the Clinton supporters? How does that affect the base of the republican party?

    I think it could be a double-edged sword for him.[/QUOTE]

    True but I doubt McCain could go far enough left that a Republican would actually vote for Hillary. He would need to outsource our military to France and put morning-after abortion pills in a every American middle school before a Republican could put a checkmark next to Hillary Clinton on a ballot.

    I think McCain is already far enough left to do pretty well with Independents and those in the middle.

  11. #11
    [QUOTE=jetstream23;2451811]True but I doubt McCain could go far enough left that a Republican would actually vote for Hillary. He would need to outsource our military to France and put morning-after abortion pills in a every American middle school before a Republican could put a checkmark next to Hillary Clinton on a ballot.

    I think McCain is already far enough left to do pretty well with Independents and those in the middle.[/QUOTE]

    no, but the hardline right and the diehard conservative and the religious right could stay home and not vote...

    I think that is a possibility....if McCain goes too far left

  12. #12
    [QUOTE=piney;2451803]the problem then is how far left does McCain go to curry the Clinton supporters? How does that affect the base of the republican party?

    I think it could be a double-edged sword for him.[/QUOTE]

    Correct, McCain's base is still less than enamored with him. Just because you haven't been reading it lately (because of the Dem race) doesn't mean that's changed any.

  13. #13
    [QUOTE=Come Back to NY;2451723]of course the huge difference is the rat candidacy is not likely to be over anytime soon, unlike the GOP in 2000- and this is going to be strung out through the summer...[/QUOTE]

    Possible.

    And if you can show me a poll like this in August or September I'll be a lot more worried about it.

    Bnut right now, I'm hoping Obama runs at least close in PA, and kicks her butt in Indiana and NC. If that happens, the superdelegates will call the race and flock to him.

    If he gets blown out in PA, or loses Indiana, we're in for a long summer.

  14. #14
    [QUOTE=nuu faaola;2452032]Possible.

    And if you can show me a poll like this in August or September I'll be a lot more worried about it.

    Bnut right now, I'm hoping Obama runs at least close in PA, and kicks her butt in Indiana and NC. If that happens, the superdelegates will call the race and flock to him.

    If he gets blown out in PA, or loses Indiana, we're in for a long summer.[/QUOTE]

    Also, if it continues to get bad, don't you think that Obama and Hillary will be each other's VP to sooth the tension?

  15. #15
    McCain can stay center or center right. Obama is left, left and more left.

    It's kind of odd. For the most part the democrats I know wouldn't vote for Obama in the primary and say they will vote for McCain in the general. The republicans I know originally said they would vote for Obama over McCain. Which was totally shocking! Now that pretty much has changed to McCain or sit home.

    If republicans sit home it's to lose and reorganize for 2012.

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    [QUOTE=nuu faaola;2452032]Possible.

    And if you can show me a poll like this in August or September I'll be a lot more worried about it.

    Bnut right now, I'm hoping Obama runs at least close in PA, and kicks her butt in Indiana and NC. If that happens, the superdelegates will call the race and flock to him.

    If he gets blown out in PA, or loses Indiana, we're in for a long summer.[/QUOTE]

    he's likely to lose PA...never mind the fact the clinton campaign will go on for months talking about the "disenfranchised voters" from Michigan and Florida...

  17. #17
    [QUOTE=Come Back to NY;2452302]he's likely to lose PA...never mind the fact the clinton campaign will go on for months talking about the "disenfranchised voters" from Michigan and Florida...[/QUOTE]

    I agree. Question: By how much?

    If she wins by double digits, she can make an argument to the superdelegates --which is her only chance at this point-- that he is significantly weaker in a key swing state, and the campaign would go on, obviously, regardless of what happened in the immediately following races. If she blows him out in PA, I think we might go into the convention unsettled, and that will do real damage

    If PA is clsoe (say, single digits) than the case that he is significantly weaker in PA is not as strong, and more than offset by other swing states where Obama is clearly stronger (places like Iowa, Minnesota, Connecticut, Maine, Colorado, and Virginia -- all likely to be in play this year). Plus, Obama is probably going to rout her in NC --potentially a swing state itself given the changing demos there-- and has a good shot in Indiana. Two wins on May 6 followed by close contest in PA, and I think it's over whether Hillary concedes or not. At that point, you'll see the big superdelegates (Gore, Pelosi, Edwards) break for Obama, and the others will follow.

  18. #18
    [QUOTE=Come Back to NY;2452302]he's likely to lose PA...never mind the fact the clinton campaign will go on for months talking about the "disenfranchised voters" from Michigan and Florida...[/QUOTE]

    A lot of life lessons can be learned by watching wrestling as a kid. Some of the biggest fan favorites were at one point heel's. If clinton is not nominated, she can quell a lot of the tension in the party by endorsing Obama, and if Obama chooses her as the VP, she is loved by the rats once again.

  19. #19
    when the polls say Kerry will beat Bush they are meaningless.

    when they say McCain will beat Obama they are very accurate.

  20. #20
    [QUOTE=Come Back to NY;2452302]he's likely to lose PA...never mind the fact the clinton campaign will go on for months talking about the "disenfranchised voters" from Michigan and Florida...[/QUOTE]

    shes been losing super delegates by the day - Bill Richardson made it very easy for people to tell the Clintons to screw off.

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