Page 1 of 3 123 LastLast
Results 1 to 20 of 60

Thread: Prediction time! NC and Indiana

  1. #1
    Hall Of Fame
    Join Date
    Apr 2003
    Location
    Boston
    Posts
    11,692

    Prediction time! NC and Indiana

    [B]North Carolina:[/B]

    Obama 52
    Clinton 48

    [B]Indiana:[/B]

    Clinton 54
    Obama 46

  2. #2
    [QUOTE=jets5ever;2525742][B]North Carolina:[/B]

    Obama 52
    Clinton 48

    [B]Indiana:[/B]

    Clinton 54
    Obama 46[/QUOTE]

    NC: Obama 54
    Clinton 46

    Indiana: Clinton 51
    Obama 49

    Boredom: continues indefinitely

  3. #3
    All Pro
    Join Date
    Aug 2006
    Location
    Colorado
    Posts
    6,925
    NC
    Obama - 56
    Clinton - 44

    Indiana
    Obama - 48
    Clinton - 52

  4. #4
    Hall Of Fame
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Location
    Not bababooey and I resent the implication
    Posts
    21,029
    My prediction is that whatever state(s) Clinton doesn't win will be insignificant.

    Further, if Obama wins NC by 6 and HRC wins Indiana by 6, the media will declare HRC the victor for the night, no matter that Obama will have extended his delegate lead and popular vote count lead nor that the remaining delegates available for HRC to over take Obama will be reduced by almost a 1/3

  5. #5
    All Pro
    Join Date
    Aug 2006
    Location
    Colorado
    Posts
    6,925
    [QUOTE=CTM;2525796]My prediction is that whatever state(s) Clinton doesn't win will be insignificant.

    Further, if Obama wins NC by 6 and HRC wins Indiana by 6, the media will declare HRC the victor for the night, no matter that Obama will have extended his delegate lead and popular vote count lead nor that the remaining delegates available for HRC to over take Obama will be reduced by almost a 1/3[/QUOTE]

    Unless it is a complete blowout, every win by either candidate from here on out can be viewed as insignificant. Anyone who thinks this isn't going all the way to the convention is only fooling themselves.

    The situation with Florida and Michigan, Edwards' delegates, and the superdelegates are going to decide this thing. Until we get to that point, it's all pretty much meaningless as neither candidate has the ability to close this out by primaries end.

  6. #6
    Jets Insider VIP
    Join Date
    Feb 2006
    Location
    Van down by the river
    Posts
    22,791
    [QUOTE=CTM;2525796]Further, if Obama wins NC by 6 and HRC wins Indiana by 6, the media will declare HRC the victor for the night, no matter that Obama will have extended his delegate lead and popular vote count lead nor that the remaining delegates available for HRC to over take Obama will be reduced by almost a 1/3[/QUOTE]

    :D

    And if Hillary loses one of those states the media will not question whether or not she can "close the deal" as they did while flagellating their dead horse after Pennsyltucky.

  7. #7
    Hall Of Fame
    Join Date
    Apr 2003
    Location
    Boston
    Posts
    11,692
    The media relentlessly says "the math" doesn't work for Hillary. They could just as easily say "the math" doesn't work for Obama, as he seems unlikely to get enough delegates to clinch the nomination, ex SDs. He'll have a delegate lead, sure. But having a lead is not what qualifies one as the nominee. Having x number of delegates does. "The math" doesn't work for either candidate, in that sense. The popular vote is a bit trickier, especially with things like caucuses where the actual number of voters in unclear, Michigan, Florida and all.

    And people talk endlessly about how SDs can't "go against the voters" as if that isn't precisely why they were created in the first place. Also, Hillary won MA. I live here and the governor and BOTH senators are SDs that are going with Obama. Seems to me they are quite clearly going against the voters in this case. How do people feel about that, is that inconsistent at all with what they say about SDs in general?

    Whoever the Democrats feel has the best chance to beat McCain in November will be the nominee. The problem is that this decision seemed like a slamdunk for Obama a few months ago and may seem less so now. Personally, I feel that Obama is a stronger GE candidate than Clinton and I think McCain is going to lose to either Hillary or Obama. But it does make for interesting theater and I continue to be amazed at their ability to possibly screw up what should be a slamdunk blowout victory in November.

    Best thing for the party is for Obama to win both states and have SDs migrate to him asap.
    Last edited by jets5ever; 05-06-2008 at 09:43 AM.

  8. #8
    Perhaps some wishful thinking at work here, but I sense momentum in recent days as the gas-tax nonsense has replaced Wright in the news...


    NC: Obama 55, Clinton 45
    IN: Too close to call a la Missouri/New Mexico.

    If Obama wins NC by double digits and either wins or is within a point or two in Indiana, I think the race is effecively over whether HRC drops out or not. If NC is low- to mid-single digits and HRC wins Indiana convincingly, it's hard to imagine the race not going all the way to the convention. So, having said that, it seems fairly obvious that Obama will win NC by 8 or so, and Hillary will win Indiana by 3-4, settling nothing at all.

  9. #9
    [QUOTE=jets5ever;2525846]

    Best thing for the party is for Obama to win both states and have SDs migrate to him asap.[/QUOTE]

    Amen.

  10. #10
    Hall Of Fame
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Location
    Not bababooey and I resent the implication
    Posts
    21,029
    [QUOTE=nuu faaola;2525891]Perhaps some wishful thinking at work here, but I sense momentum in recent days as the gas-tax nonsense has replaced Wright in the news...


    NC: Obama 55, Clinton 45
    IN: Too close to call a la Missouri/New Mexico.

    If Obama wins NC by double digits and either wins or is within a point or two in Indiana, I think the race is effecively over whether HRC drops out or not. If NC is low- to mid-single digits and HRC wins Indiana convincingly, it's hard to imagine the race not going all the way to the convention. So, having said that, it seems fairly obvious that Obama will win NC by 8 or so, and Hillary will win Indiana by 3-4, settling nothing at all.[/QUOTE]

    Agreed about momentum, but it's coming too late. Had this trend started a few days earlier it would've been more impactful..

    Also, if the media would run any of the Clinton scandals this would be over. Namely, that factory in Indiana that moved to China that she's run commercials and made speeches blaming Bush for. Only problem is that Bubba himself is the one that approved the sale to the Chinese, not dubya

    They are to obsessed with keeping this thing going..

  11. #11
    All Pro
    Join Date
    Sep 2006
    Location
    Monmouth County
    Posts
    2,137
    [QUOTE=nuu faaola;2525891]Perhaps some wishful thinking at work here, but I sense momentum in recent days as the gas-tax nonsense has replaced Wright in the news...


    NC: Obama 55, Clinton 45
    IN: Too close to call a la Missouri/New Mexico.

    If Obama wins NC by double digits and either wins or is within a point or two in Indiana, I think the race is effecively over whether HRC drops out or not. If NC is low- to mid-single digits and HRC wins Indiana convincingly, it's hard to imagine the race not going all the way to the convention. So, having said that, it seems fairly obvious that Obama will win NC by 8 or so, and Hillary will win Indiana by 3-4, settling nothing at all.[/QUOTE]

    The gas tax has certainly taken over as the key issue but it remains to be seen if the public buys the gas tax holiday propaganda that Hilary is putting out there.

  12. #12
    NC
    Clinton 51
    Obama 49

    Indiana
    Clinton 54
    Obama 46
    Last edited by Winstonbiggs; 05-07-2008 at 08:45 AM.

  13. #13
    [QUOTE=ChadLover;2525918]The gas tax has certainly taken over as the key issue but it remains to be seen if the public buys the gas tax holiday propaganda that Hilary is putting out there.[/QUOTE]

    I think it's unlikely that it helps her, because virtually all of the coverage has been unusually frank about how stupid an idea it is. (This is because its the rare issue where no one --not even her own economic advisers-- has been willing to call it smart.)

    It might hurt, because it makes her look like a craven panderer, or it might have no impact at all. We'll see tonight.

  14. #14
    [QUOTE=Winstonbiggs;2525955]
    NC
    Clinton 51
    Obama 49

    [/QUOTE]

    And I thought *my* prediction was wishful thinking!

  15. #15
    Hall Of Fame
    Join Date
    Feb 2005
    Location
    Montville, NJ
    Posts
    5,473
    I'll bite

    IN
    Clinton 53
    Obama 47

    NC
    Obama 53
    Clinton 47

  16. #16
    [QUOTE=nuu faaola;2526075]And I thought *my* prediction was wishful thinking![/QUOTE]

    I think Obama is dead in the water, he has the nomination locked but other than a ton of money the guy is running on empty.

  17. #17
    [QUOTE=Winstonbiggs;2526105]I think Obama is dead in the water, he has the nomination locked but other than a ton of money the guy is running on empty.[/QUOTE]

    Well, I disagree, obviously. But the nice thing about primary days is the voters get to settle it --at least some of it-- for us. So stay tuned.

  18. #18
    I think Clinton wins:
    NC Clinton 53
    Obama 47
    Indiana Clinton 55
    Obama 45

  19. #19
    [QUOTE=nuu faaola;2526114]Well, I disagree, obviously. But the nice thing about primary days is the voters get to settle it --at least some of it-- for us. So stay tuned.[/QUOTE]

    The voters aren't going to settle it the caucuses and rules are going to settle it. In the end don't be surprised when Obama has more delegates and Hillary has more votes.

  20. #20
    Jets Insider VIP
    JetsInsider.com Legend
    Charter JI Member

    Join Date
    May 1999
    Posts
    31,408
    [QUOTE=Winstonbiggs;2526190]The voters aren't going to settle it the caucuses and rules are going to settle it. [B]In the end don't be surprised when Obama has more delegates and Hillary has more votes[/B].[/QUOTE]

    :D:D

    not to worry....it's in good hands...

    [IMG]http://www.michaeltotten.com/archives/images/Howard%20Dean.jpg[/IMG]

    btw- it's a slaughter today....BO slaughters clinton in NC and she does the same to him in Indiana....

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

Follow Us