I didn't watch much of this game at all, but noticed that in 7 innings Johan only struck out 1 batter. I'm assuming this has to be the least amount of batters he has ever struck out in any start he has ever had in his career. What's wrong with him? Is it only his standard early season issues or is it more than that?
Given what Buster Olney said today in his blog, I think there's a reason to watch this, if not real concern. (And I know I said in the other thread I didn't think this deserved a thread, but this seems to be an issue now).
• Heard this from a couple of evaluators: Johan Santana's velocity is down 3-4 miles per hour from a couple of years ago. He is short-arming the ball more than he has in the past -- and this is after some red flags appeared in the physical examination he underwent before signing with the Mets. Sources say his shoulder showed some wear and tear, which is not unusual for a pitcher of Santana's age. This is not to say Santana is not an effective pitcher now, but all of this information makes you wonder how effective he will remain during the course of his multi-year deal.
In other words, absolutely nothing is wrong with him, the Braves just got themselves out for 6 innings by swinging at the first and second pitches.
Holy exaggeration.Given what Buster Olney said today in his blog, I think there's a reason to watch this, if not real concern. (And I know I said in the other thread I didn't think this deserved a thread, but this seems to be an issue now).
Using FanGraphs, his average velocity on his Fastball in 2005 was 92.4 mph. This year? 91.1 mph. The myth is that Santana once reguarly threw 94-95 mph, no, he never did. He may have touched it on the occasional pitch here and there (He still does), but for the most part it's been less then that for years now. His velocity is only marginally down from where it was when he was "in his prime" (According to the critics), and that could be because most of his outings have been in cold weather cities.
The funny part is you would think people would have realized he's a slow starter by now. His career ERA is 3.57 in the First Half and 2.79 in the 2nd Half. His Career WHIP is 1.14 in the First Half and 1.04 in the 2nd Half. What he's doing right now is right in line with his career numbers.
Imagine where this joke of a team would be right now without him?
Lets all take a step back please. Lots of things wrong with this team, Johan isn't one of them.
Yankee fans will go to no end to justify the mistake of not trading for Johan. You would think the Yank fans posting this nonsense were not the same guys that clearly said he'd dominate the NL. If Schneider and Castilla make two normal plays last night Olney doesn't even write this column.
In 10 starts Johan has given up over 3 earned runs twice. Sound the alarms.
Last edited by chad101; 05-23-2008 at 11:39 AM.
Buster Olney should be the Mets pitching coach.
He knows Johan so well.
Here's what he wrote today:
After the item on Johan Santana's diminished velocity was posted here yesterday, some scouts from other teams chimed in, indicating through e-mails and phone calls that they were seeing the same thing. "The Mets were asking around about that in spring training, about what his true [velocity] baseline was," said one talent evaluator. "They were concerned."
Said an AL scout who has seen Santana this month: "His stuff isn't even close to what it was [with the Twins]."
How much has his diminished stuff affected him? We have less than two months of starts to consider from 2008, a very small sample, and keep in mind that except for last season -- when Santana suffered a significant statistical decline in the last six weeks -- he has often done his best work in the second half.
With that said, here are the primary indicators:
* His ratio of strikeouts per nine innings over the last six seasons has been 11.38, 9.61, 10.46, 9.25, 9.44, 9.66. This year: 7.79.
* His strikeout-to-walk ratio over the last six seasons: 2.80, 3.60, 4.91, 5.29, 5.21, 4.52. This year: 3.87.
* Opponents' OPS over the last six seasons: .607, .642, .564, .594, .616, .678. This year: .723.
As I wrote a lot about during the winter of Santana trade talks, rival talent evaluators saw a noticeable -- not dramatic, but noticeable -- decline in his stuff after his 17-strikeout performance against Texas on Aug. 19. He's made 17 starts since then, and here are his primary numbers:
* Innings: 111
* Hits: 109
* Earned runs: 50
* Home runs: 20 (By comparison, Paul Byrd has allowed 21 during the same span)
* Walks: 28
* Strikeouts: 102
* ERA: 4.05
(Since the beginning of the 2007 season, Santana has allowed 44 home runs -- most in the majors.)
Look, Santana is still obviously among the better pitchers in the game, and his remarkable ability to change speeds means that he probably is going to age better than a lot of his peers. He is smart, dedicated and seriously competitive, so if there is something to figure out and there are adjustments that can be made, he'll get there.
This question remains: Will he be worth to the Mets what they will pay him over the duration of the contract? We'll see.
But it's probably not a good thing that rival scouts are seeing signs of diminishment less than two months into a seven-year deal.
Not the case.
Pretty much what Cerrone said yesterday.
Mostly every batter he had in 1-2 counts but he couldn't finish them off. They found ways to bloop singles, broken bat singles, everything. He has been good, mets are 7-3 in his 10 starts so far but he hasn't dominated like he has been expected too. In the 2nd half, he's going to be expected to turn it on like his career dictates, he is the best 2nd half pitcher in the game right now.
From Abraham's blog:
Fact is, maybe you guys aren't worried, but people within the organization certainly are.When the Mets were at Shea over the weekend, two people with the team said to me that the organization was worried about Santana’s diminished velocity and Buster’s numbers bear that out. The difference between his fastball and changeup is narrowing.
This isn't a Roy Oswalt situation when the K/9 dips from over 9 to over 6. When it's all said and done, Santana will have his 18+ wins, 200+ IP and 230+ strike outs.
Funny thing is that I saw none of these reports during his great starts. All of a sudden he lost all this velocity and strikeout ability in the matter of one month?
He's not going to throw 95-97 but he's sat at 92-94 and touched 95 at times all season. I don't see how that isn't more then enough to do what he has done during his great run.
After the item on Johan Santana's diminished velocity was posted here yesterday,some scouts from other teams chimed in, indicating through e-mails and phone calls that they were seeing the same thing. "The Mets were asking around about that in spring training, about what his true [velocity] baseline was," said one talent evaluator. "They were concerned."
Last edited by Tyler Durden; 05-23-2008 at 03:01 PM.
Ahh yes Guido. Every thing a scout says or a baseball columnists must be correct! I have no right as a Mets fan who has watched every Santana start to dispute anything!
His trends would worry me a lot more if we had given up something of substantial value for him.
The length of the contract worries me personally(always did) but the team will cross that bridge when the time comes. I think he can make adjustments and remain and very good-great pitcher throughout the majority of the deal and thats all I can really ask for.
Right now, the only thing that would worry me is if Santana get injured, god forbid.