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Thread: Obama Clears 50% Hurdle in Tracking Polls

  1. #1

    Obama Clears 50% Hurdle in Tracking Polls

    Many pundints were bemoaning Obama's ability to get 50% in any national poll and were predicting that as a bad sign for his prospects. Well here are today's new tracking polls:

    Rasmussen Tracking Obama 51, McCain 45 Obama +6
    National USA Today/Gallup* Obama 50, McCain 43 Obama +7

    [URL="http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/latestpolls/index.html"]http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/latestpolls/index.html[/URL]

    Now I'm sure these numbers will change and tomorrow he can be below 50 again, but it does seem that he received a good convention bump, and that the Palin nomination has not gone over well at all.
    Last edited by Queens Jet Fan; 09-02-2008 at 12:49 PM.

  2. #2
    invesco speech blew the doors off this contest

    you don't get 40 million americans to watch a cable news station on a weekday night in the summertime without a big bump

  3. #3
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    The election is pretty much his to lose.

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    40 million americans should be asking how is he going to pay for all these idea's.

    AHHHH Thats right raise taxes.

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    [QUOTE=BushyTheBeaver;2721962]The election is pretty much his to lose.[/QUOTE]

    I agree with that. With 2 months to go and a lead between 5-10% it will take something fairly significant to close that gap.

    However, these are national polls and anyone who understands the electoral process knows that it's about winning states....one by one.

    Should be an interesting 2 months.

  6. #6
    [QUOTE=jetstream23;2721969]
    However, these are national polls and anyone who understands the electoral process knows that it's about winning states....one by one.
    [/QUOTE]

    agreed


    as of right now pollster.com has 260 EV for Obama, 176 for mcCain and 102 as a toss up... with 270 to win. Even down by 8-10% the national polls are actually more attractive to McCain than the state by state breakdown.

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    [QUOTE=bitonti;2722019]agreed


    as of right now pollster.com has 260 EV for Obama, 176 for mcCain and 102 as a toss up... with 270 to win. Even down by 8-10% the national polls are actually more attractive to McCain than the state by state breakdown.[/QUOTE]

    Some people don't realize those kinds of things.

    You could win 52% to 47% in the popular vote and still landslide an election.

  8. #8
    [QUOTE=BushyTheBeaver;2721962]The election is pretty much his to lose.[/QUOTE]

    Thats ben my view of this one from Day 1. Although I thought it was Clinton's to lose, the point was it's the DEMOCRATS to lose.

    Barring a major Ooops, I just don't see a McCain Victory.

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    I just think back to Dukakis and how far ahead he was at this point in the election. I expect those numbers to change significantly come late October - who knows which way but they'll flux significantly.

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    [QUOTE=Warfish;2722029]Thats ben my view of this one from Day 1. Although I thought it was Clinton's to lose, the point was it's the DEMOCRATS to lose.

    Barring a major Ooops, I just don't see a McCain Victory.[/QUOTE]

    War, assuming an Obama victory, are you pleased that someone like Biden is on the undercard and would be in the administration? I am not an Obama supporter but I mean, compared to Hillary and many of the other choices, I see Biden as the lesser of many evils.

  11. #11
    Correction:

    The poll #'s for the Gallop poll in the original post was not their tracking poll. It was a stand alone poll.

    They just now released their tracking poll. It is as follows
    [QUOTE]PRINCETON, NJ -- Gallup Poll Daily tracking from Aug. 30 through Sept. 1, finds Barack Obama leading the race for president with his highest share of support to date. Fully half of national registered voters now favor Obama for president, while 42% back John McCain.[/QUOTE]
    [URL="http://www.gallup.com:80/poll/109960/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Hits-50-First-Time.aspx"]http://www.gallup.com:80/poll/109960/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Hits-50-First-Time.aspx[/URL]

  12. #12
    Dems just need to keep praying for hurricanes, more deaths in Iraq, and for the economy to continue sucking arse.

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    I am trying to understand this. How does Obama appeal to the voters?
    I mean what do people like about him.
    I find all of these candidates a major waste of time.
    They are all controlled by lobbyists and whatever there stupid party says.

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    [QUOTE=James;2722341]I am trying to understand this. How does Obama appeal to the voters?
    I mean what do people like about him.
    I find all of these candidates a major waste of time.
    They are all controlled by lobbyists and whatever there stupid party says.[/QUOTE]

    Welcome to the USA!!!

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    It sounded good for awhile but the closer we get to the election date, the less the Republicans are going to be comforted by the fact they are not getting trounced in the polls.

    I've been saying it for some time (not here obviously) that unless McCain picked Al Gore or the corpse of Ronald Reagan he would not be winning in September. His only hope, and this seems to be holding true, is beating Obama in the debates. Barack is a great speaker when he has everything he's supposed to say written down in front of him, but when asked point blank he jumbles his words and comes off as rather unimpressive. This is McCain's only real chance as I see it.

  16. #16
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    [QUOTE=bitonti;2721957]invesco speech blew the doors off this contest

    [B]you don't get 40 million americans to watch a cable news station on a weekday night in the summertime without a big bump[/B][/QUOTE]

    NOT an update....but the bump was not so big, bit.

    [QUOTE][SIZE="5"][B]Obama's bounce smaller than others[/B][/SIZE]
    David Paul Kuhn
    Mon Sep 1, 10:38 PM ET


    [B]Barack Obama’s post-Democratic National Convention bounce in the polls appears to be slightly smaller than the norm of past conventions, and it's gradually depreciating.[/B]

    The Gallup daily tracking poll has found that since the conclusion of the convention, Obama has risen 4 percentage points in the polls, to lead McCain 49 percent to 43 percent today. That's a slightly smaller uptick in the polls than the 5- to 6-point bounce earned by a typical party nominee, by Gallup’s measure, since 1964. Obama and McCain were evenly split at 45 percentage points apiece prior to the Democratic convention, according to Gallup.

    That outcome comes despite Obama’s speech before more than 80,000 people at Invesco Field in Denver on Thursday night, a political event that was also seen by about 40 million television viewers. It also comes as the Republican convention quietly got under way in St. Paul, and the national media gaze focuses southward to Hurricane Gustav.

    Daily tracking polls by Gallup and Rasmussen Reports demonstrate that Obama has taken his greatest lead since July, if not the general election. [B]But while Obama’s support remains significantly stronger than weeks ago, it appears that the post-convention bounce he earned may have already peaked. [/B]

    [B]On Saturday, Gallup reported Obama was ahead by 8 percentage points. By Monday, that lead had shrunk to 5 points.[/B] Rasmussen pegs Obama’s standing as relatively stable in recent days, with a 49 percent to 46 percent lead over McCain when “leaners” are included, a small but statistically insignificant improvement for McCain of 1 percentage point since Saturday.

    [B]CBS News reported Monday that Obama is now ahead in its poll, 48 to 40 percent, a 3-point uptick in Obama’s standing compared to its poll prior to the Democratic convention. Obama’s 3-point bounce exceeds that of John F. Kerry, the Democratic presidential nominee in 2004 who did not rise in the polls following his convention. But Obama’s bounce is less than a third of what Al Gore received in 2000 and Bill Clinton received in 1992. Even Bob Dole, following the 1996 Republican convention, received a 4-point bounce in the polls, 1 point more than Obama.[/B]

    But any Obama bounce, if it is sustained, could be said to be a victory for Democrats. In the days since Obama gave his address, the news cycles have been captured by the unveiling of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as John McCain's running mate, the opening of the Republican convention and the threat posed by Hurricane Gustav.

    There have been only three previous back-to-back conventions, most recently in 1956. The effect of the GOP convention on the polls will not be known for days.

    A CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll and a Zogby Interactive flash poll, both completed over the weekend, have found the presidential race is in a dead heat. According to both polls, Obama attained no statistically significant convention bounce.

    Whether Obama is ahead or tied with McCain, the presumptive Republican nominee will now come into the Republican convention with his best opportunity yet to break through his own ceiling and take a lead in the presidential race
    [/QUOTE]
    Last edited by jetstream23; 09-02-2008 at 04:05 PM.

  17. #17
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    [QUOTE=jetstream23;2722513]An update. The bump was not so big, bit.[/QUOTE]

    You do realize that the article you quoted came out yesterday BEFORE the new polls showing that Obama has passed the 50% mark, correct?

    So I really don't understand how you can call yesterday's news an update when the thread starter posted information from TODAY's news.

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    [QUOTE=SMC;2722520]You do realize that the article you quoted came out yesterday BEFORE the new polls showing that Obama has passed the 50% mark, correct?

    So I really don't understand how you can call yesterday's news an update when the thread starter posted information from TODAY's news.[/QUOTE]

    Ah, I stand corrected. It was linked on the front page of Yahoo. I totally missed the date.

  19. #19
    [QUOTE=jetstream23;2722513]An update. The bump was not so big, bit.[/QUOTE]


    The blog fivethirtyeight.com had an interesting post on this the other day.

    Basically, they said that the average Gallup-tracker bump for a convention is 4-5 points. And the average veep bump is 2-3 points. Seems to me that the Politico story didn't really factor in the early excitement over Sarah Palin's appointment into its analysis.

    Seems likely that Obama perhaps had an above average bump of 7-8 points, but that Palin delivered a full 3 point bump as well, meaning that both events went well. The compressed news cycles of this campaign really have no precedent.

    In any event, Obama was down two in Gallup last Monday, today he is up eight. Whether that's a convo-bump or Palin fallout, he clearly is in better shape now than he was then.

  20. #20
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    [QUOTE=James;2721964]40 million americans should be asking how is he going to pay for all these idea's.

    AHHHH Thats right raise taxes.[/QUOTE]

    They should compare that with the federal governments $ 9.6 trillion debt McCain's pledge to stay in Iraq and Cut taxes.

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