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Thread: The Electoral Map

  1. #21
    [QUOTE=Tyler Durden;2764716]LOL.. it will be that simple?[/QUOTE]

    Frankly, yes!

    As I said in another thread, every time that Barack Obama opens his mouth it becomes so obvious that he is completely NOT prepared to be President of the USA.

    His "teleprompter" moniker is entirely deserved. He cannot cite ONE example where he actually "changed" anything. He can't really say anything because he hasn't done anything.

    "Change We Can Believe In" is an empty advertising slogan.

    :jets18

  2. #22
    [QUOTE=Come Back to NY;2764721]still doesn't answer the issue you use polls spoonfed to you by leftist sites to further your cause and dismiss the majority of other polls...never mind the fact this means jacksh!t at this point....

    but please- go on with another meaningless rant...[/QUOTE]

    Nov. 4th is going to be so sweet... make sure you are here.

  3. #23
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    [QUOTE=Tyler Durden;2764726]Nov. 4th is going to be so sweet... make sure you are here.[/QUOTE]

    says the person who won't be voting....once again good job defending your use of selective polls and not going off on a tangent...LOL...
    Last edited by Come Back to NY; 09-22-2008 at 06:53 PM.

  4. #24
    [QUOTE=Come Back to NY;2764704]if Florida remains red, which it will, and Ohio remains red, then it comes down to Colorado with no need for NH....[/QUOTE]


    for the right i believe Colorado would be all you need, assuming you hold Nevada. I believe Dems with Colorado would still need another stat...that is unless you are conceding NH to the blue...then it would be all about Colorado

  5. #25
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    [QUOTE=person;2764734]for the right i believe Colorado would be all you need, assuming you hold Nevada. I believe Dems with Colorado would still need another stat...that is unless you are conceding NH to the blue...then it would be all about Colorado[/QUOTE]

    I am looking at it from McCain's POV....but with Ohio and the rest of the map being static (except Colorado) McCain has 265 EV's....

  6. #26
    "I will bring experience to the White House. I know John McCain will bring experience to the White House. Barack Obama made a speech in 2002."

    -Hillary Clinton-

    Add to the above Joe Biden on three (3) separate occasions saying that Barack Obama is not ready to be President of the USA.

    Just so long as John McCain doesn't lose his composure, Barack Obama will lose the debate to - Barack Obama.

    :jets18

  7. #27
    [QUOTE=Come Back to NY;2764736]I am looking at it from McCain's POV....but with Ohio and the rest of the map being static (except Colorado) McCain has 265 EV's....[/QUOTE]

    and Dems with NH have 264...so yes, Colorado Colorado Colorado..

  8. #28
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    [QUOTE=person;2764753]and Dems with NH have 264...so yes, Colorado Colorado Colorado..[/QUOTE]

    where's John Denver when you need him.....

  9. #29
    Rasmussen Polls- 9/22/08

    [B]Michigan[/B]
    Obama 51%
    McCain 44%

    [B]Pennsylvania[/B]
    Obama 48%
    McCain 45%

    [B]Minnesota[/B]
    Obama 52%
    McCain 44%

    [B]Ohio[/B]
    Obama 46%
    McCain 50%

    [B]North Carolina[/B]
    Obama 47%
    McCain 50%

    [B]Virginia[/B]
    Obama 48%
    McCain 50%

  10. #30
    [QUOTE=Tyler Durden;2764681][url]http://www.maristpoll.marist.edu/[/url][/QUOTE]

    Actually, I was quoting Zogby and Rasmussen, whom I heard on Friday. I trust the Zogby poll the most.

  11. #31
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    There's a pretty interesting article about what would happen if it ended 269-269 that I got from Drudge.

    [URL="http://www.washtimes.com/news/2008/sep/23/an-electoral-college-doomsday/"]http://www.washtimes.com/news/2008/sep/23/an-electoral-college-doomsday/[/URL]

    Pretty much the GOP would win if Congress stayed in it's current split. If the newly elected members were allowed in the Dems would most likely take it. No matter what, there would be a ton of lawsuits... which would probably benefit the Republicans since they have the Supreme Court.

    I have to say, it would be a hilarious way to cap off what is a ridiculous election year. Yea, the people of the country would be put through an agonizing few months, but us Jets fans could take it... what's a few months on top of a lifetime of suffering?

  12. #32
    [QUOTE=Das Ken;2768315]There's a pretty interesting article about what would happen if it ended 269-269 that I got from Drudge.

    [URL="http://www.washtimes.com/news/2008/sep/23/an-electoral-college-doomsday/"]http://www.washtimes.com/news/2008/sep/23/an-electoral-college-doomsday/[/URL]

    Pretty much the GOP would win if Congress stayed in it's current split. If the newly elected members were allowed in the Dems would most likely take it. No matter what, there would be a ton of lawsuits... which would probably benefit the Republicans since they have the Supreme Court.

    I have to say, it would be a hilarious way to cap off what is a ridiculous election year. Yea, the people of the country would be put through an agonizing few months, but us Jets fans could take it... what's a few months on top of a lifetime of suffering?[/QUOTE]

    Supposing it's 269-269 and Congress stays in its current split, okay? I'm don't claim expertise in these matters, but wouldn't it then be Obama in a walk?

    And as a Jets fan, well, I'm no different than anyone else around here in those regards...woof!

  13. #33
    [QUOTE=JCnflies;2765043]Actually, I was quoting Zogby and Rasmussen, whom I heard on Friday. I trust the Zogby poll the most.[/QUOTE]

    Zogby is the worst pollster in the world.

    Survey USA and Rasmussen are decent. CNN is pretty good because it averages about five different polls.

    The web site fivethirtyeight.com is great for this stuff. It's run by a professional statistician who takes every poll of a state, weights them by sample size, and applies a mean-regression based on various factors. He called almost every race correctly during the Democratic primary using this methodology.

    Here's how he has the races today:

    [QUOTE]COLORADO: Obama +4

    FLORIDA: McCain +1

    IOWA: Obama +10

    INDIANA: McCain +1

    MICHIGAN: Obama +5

    MINNESOTA: Obama +7

    MISSOURI: McCain +2

    MONTANA: McCain +2

    NORTH CAROLINA: McCain +2

    NEW HAMPSHIRE: Obama +2

    NEW MEXICO: Obama +7

    NEVADA: Even

    OHIO: EVEN

    PENNSYLVANIA: Obama +4

    VIRGINIA: Obama +3

    WISCONSIN: Obama +7

    [/QUOTE]

    Bottom line, it is very close, with a small but clear Obama lead, heading into the debates, which are bound to move the numbers a point or two in one direction or the other.

  14. #34
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    [QUOTE=sackdance;2768351]Supposing it's 269-269 and Congress stays in its current split, okay? I'm don't claim expertise in these matters, but wouldn't it then be Obama in a walk?

    And as a Jets fan, well, I'm no different than anyone else around here in those regards...woof![/QUOTE]

    That's what I thought too. As in, wow would the GOP be f'ed if that happened.

    However, the writer makes it seem as if Obama would get the Presidency and Palin the VP, but then goes on to say that the left would lose the White House altogether. Honestly, I don't think anyone really knows what would happen, kinda like Florida and the Supreme Court in 2000.

    But the two definitive points I got out of this article is that it would be a cluster**** of confusion and that it would not be a lock for Obama.

    * I should point out that the people commenting are saying that this writer's an idiot and has no idea what he's talking about. So take that for what you will.
    Last edited by Das Ken; 09-23-2008 at 03:13 PM.

  15. #35
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    [QUOTE=Das Ken;2768315]There's a pretty interesting article about what would happen if it ended 269-269 that I got from Drudge.

    [URL="http://www.washtimes.com/news/2008/sep/23/an-electoral-college-doomsday/"]http://www.washtimes.com/news/2008/sep/23/an-electoral-college-doomsday/[/URL]

    Pretty much the GOP would win if Congress stayed in it's current split. If the newly elected members were allowed in the Dems would most likely take it. No matter what, there would be a ton of lawsuits... which would probably benefit the Republicans since they have the Supreme Court.

    I have to say, it would be a hilarious way to cap off what is a ridiculous election year. Yea, the people of the country would be put through an agonizing few months, but us Jets fans could take it... what's a few months on top of a lifetime of suffering?[/QUOTE]

    Lieberman would go for McCain, that's a given....but what makes you think that Chuck Hagel wouldn't vote for Obama? He's avoided saying it, but at the end of the day, its a distinct possibility. That would give Obama a 51-49 edge in the Senate.

  16. #36
    [QUOTE=crasherino;2768415]Lieberman would go for McCain, that's a given....but what makes you think that Chuck Hagel wouldn't vote for Obama? He's avoided saying it, but at the end of the day, its a distinct possibility. That would give Obama a 51-49 edge in the Senate.[/QUOTE]

    Don't be so sure Lieberman would vote that way. Remember, in that scenario, the Senate would be voting for veep. His buddy McCain would already have lost. And he'd be looking at being stripped of his chairmanship and basically dumped from the party.

    It's not too hard to envision a scenario where he cuts a deal to keep ahis chair in exchange for his vote. He doesn't even really know Palin and is chummy with Biden anyhow.

    Regardless, Hagel has made his contempt for Palin pretty clear. He ain't voting for her.

  17. #37
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    [QUOTE=nuu faaola;2768434]Don't be so sure Lieberman would vote that way. Remember, in that scenario, the Senate would be voting for veep. His buddy McCain would already have lost. And he'd be looking at being stripped of his chairmanship and basically dumped from the party.

    It's not too hard to envision a scenario where he cuts a deal to keep ahis chair in exchange for his vote. He doesn't even really know Palin and is chummy with Biden anyhow.

    Regardless, Hagel has made his contempt for Palin pretty clear. He ain't voting for her.[/QUOTE]

    Those are just some of the issues.

    It's possible that the Senate would vote to put McCain as the VP, though that seems unlikely.

    The jist of the whole thing as I understand it, is that if the outgoing Congress is allowed to choose it will be Obama/most likely Biden. If the incoming Congress makes the choice it could swing the other way with McCain winning and having Biden as his VP. Or it could be the other way around. I don't get it.

    But that's due to each state in the house having 1 vote, so things get mixed up.

  18. #38
    [QUOTE=Das Ken;2768474]Those are just some of the issues.

    It's possible that the Senate would vote to put McCain as the VP, though that seems unlikely.

    The jist of the whole thing as I understand it, is that if the outgoing Congress is allowed to choose it will be Obama/most likely Biden. If the incoming Congress makes the choice it could swing the other way with McCain winning and having Biden as his VP. Or it could be the other way around. I don't get it.

    But that's due to each state in the house having 1 vote, so things get mixed up.[/QUOTE]

    How do you figure? The dems are going to have more seats next term, not less, by most predictions.

    I will say that, if it ends up tied, I would be in favor of making McCain veep. Bush made a huge error in 2000 by not acknowledging his lack of clear mandate in his cabinet.

    Palin, however, would be unacceptable.
    Last edited by nuu faaola; 09-23-2008 at 04:03 PM.

  19. #39
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    [QUOTE]In the current House, Mr. Obama would win - 27 delegations have a majority of Democrats, 21 have a majority of Republicans, and two states, Kansas and Mr. McCain's home state of Arizona, are evenly split.

    But those numbers will change Nov. 4, and Paul Sracic, associate professor in the department of political science Youngstown State University in Ohio, said they could change dramatically. Of the 27 state congressional delegations with a majority of Democrats, 25 of them would switch to deadlocked or Republican control if two or more seats change to Republican.

    At least 26 state delegations in the House must agree before the next president can be chosen. But even if Democrats maintain a majority, there would be pressure on Democratic delegations to vote Republican in states where voters chose Mr. McCain. [/QUOTE]

    If what this guy says is true, then McCain has a chance.

    And to Sackdance, I guess our initial impressions were right. Obama has a clear advantage if this happens, but it's not guaranteed or anything.

  20. #40
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    [QUOTE=Das Ken;2768523]If what this guy says is true, then McCain has a chance.

    And to Sackdance, I guess our initial impressions were right. Obama has a clear advantage if this happens, but it's not guaranteed or anything.[/QUOTE]

    The main problem with that article is the ridiculous scenarios it throws out there under the guise of being "plausible""

    [B][I]The newly elected House, seated in January, is unable to muster a majority to choose a president after a 269-269 tie, but the Senate, which is expected to be controlled by Democrats, picks Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr. from the Democratic ticket[/I][/B]

    Why would the newly elected House be unable to muster a majority? By all accounts, the Democrat lead will increase. That's hardly a plausible scenario. The next scenario is "Congress fails to fulfill its duty". What happened....did they just forget to show up?

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