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Thread: The Electoral Map

  1. #41
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    [QUOTE=crasherino;2768546]The main problem with that article is the ridiculous scenarios it throws out there under the guise of being "plausible""

    [B][I]The newly elected House, seated in January, is unable to muster a majority to choose a president after a 269-269 tie, but the Senate, which is expected to be controlled by Democrats, picks Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr. from the Democratic ticket[/I][/B]

    Why would the newly elected House be unable to muster a majority? By all accounts, the Democrat lead will increase. That's hardly a plausible scenario. The next scenario is "Congress fails to fulfill its duty". What happened....did they just forget to show up?[/QUOTE]

    Exactly. I have yet to see a single prediction of the GOP gaining seats in either chamber.

  2. #42
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    [QUOTE=crasherino;2768546]The main problem with that article is the ridiculous scenarios it throws out there under the guise of being "plausible""

    [B][I]The newly elected House, seated in January, is unable to muster a majority to choose a president after a 269-269 tie, but the Senate, which is expected to be controlled by Democrats, picks Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr. from the Democratic ticket[/I][/B]

    Why would the newly elected House be unable to muster a majority? By all accounts, the Democrat lead will increase. That's hardly a plausible scenario. The next scenario is "Congress fails to fulfill its duty". What happened....did they just forget to show up?[/QUOTE]

    Yea, I agree with you. I can't defend this article; it's poorly written and is pretty much pure speculation.

    It seems more interested in proving that McCain has a chance if they tie rather than revealing what would actually occur. Still, the idea of a 269-269 draw is intriguing.

  3. #43
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    [QUOTE=Das Ken;2768570]Yea, I agree with you. I can't defend this article; it's poorly written and is pretty much pure speculation.

    It seems more interested in proving that McCain has a chance if they tie rather than revealing what would actually occur. Still, the idea of a 269-269 draw is intriguing.[/QUOTE]

    No doubt.

    But, while intriguing, it may be a civics lesson the country cannot afford in its current state. Hopefully a lot of these battleground states will all break the same way and we'll have a clear winner with no questions about his legitimacy.

  4. #44
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    PUBLIC POLICY POLLING

    [url]http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_CO_92365.pdf[/url]

    [QUOTE]
    September 23, 2008

    Raleigh, N.C. – A new Public Policy Polling survey finds Barack Obama expanding his lead in Colorado to 51-44. He was up by just a single point in a similar poll conducted two weeks ago.

    A precipitous drop in Sarah Palin’s approval may be helping to fuel Obama’s gains. Immediately after the convention 41% of Colorado voters said that her selection made them more likely to vote for John McCain, compared to 38% who said it made them less likely to do so. Since then there’s been a 12 point drop in her net favorability. Now just 38% say that she makes them more likely to vote for the Republican, with 47% saying they’re less likely to do so.

    “Barack Obama has greatly increased his lead with independents since we last polled Colorado,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “It seems like the more voters have learned about Sarah Palin the less they’ve liked her, and that’s allowed Obama to open up the largest lead he’s shown in a PPP poll of Colorado.”

    Obama has opened up a one point lead with white voters while also holding a 21 point advantage with Hispanics. He leads with every age demographic except those voters over 65. There is a significant gender gap in the results, with Obama up 15 among women but trailing by two with men.
    [/QUOTE]

  5. #45
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    Tyler - You're right re: Colorado for Obama. However, I just added up McCains' states and he comes up with 281 EVs.

    :jets18

  6. #46
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    [QUOTE=AlbanyJet;2768915]Tyler - You're right re: Colorado for Obama. However, I just added up McCains' states and he comes up with 281 EVs.

    :jets18[/QUOTE]

    :confused:

    I fail to see how McCain can actually win without Colorado, unless you believe he can turn blue states like PA, NH, or Michigan to red, and he is way behind in Michigan and Obama is still ahead in PA and NH, though not by much.

    This also doesn't consider how close Obama is making it in Florida, Virginia, Indiana, and NC
    Last edited by Tyler Durden; 09-23-2008 at 08:44 PM.

  7. #47
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    Lets take a closer look.

    Lets take a look at how many EV the candidates have when we DO NOT count the any of the below battleground states.

    I'm using [url]http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/#dataObama[/url] -

    Obama - 191 EV
    McCain - 163 EV

    and here are the battleground states.

    Pennsylvania (21) - Obama +2.5
    New Hampshire (4) - Obama +1.7
    Wisconsin (10) - Obama +3.2
    Colorado (9) - Obama +4.0
    Minnesota (10) - Obama +2.8
    Michigan (17) - Obama +5.0
    Washington (11) - Obama +4.2

    Ohio (20) - McCain +1.6
    Indiana (11) - McCain +2.3
    Virginia (13) - McCain +1.3
    Florida (27) - McCain +2.0
    Nevada (5) - McCain +1.7
    North Carolina (15) - McCain +4.2
    Missouri (11) - McCain +4.7

    If all these battleground states fall in line than it's pretty clear. Obama wins a close election.

    Obama - 273
    McCain - 265

  8. #48
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    [QUOTE=nuu faaola;2768352]Zogby is the worst pollster in the world.

    Survey USA and Rasmussen are decent. CNN is pretty good because it averages about five different polls.

    The web site fivethirtyeight.com is great for this stuff. It's run by a professional statistician who takes every poll of a state, weights them by sample size, and applies a mean-regression based on various factors. He called almost every race correctly during the Democratic primary using this methodology.

    Here's how he has the races today:



    Bottom line, it is very close, with a small but clear Obama lead, heading into the debates, which are bound to move the numbers a point or two in one direction or the other.[/QUOTE]

    i don't follow polling enough to say much with certainty .... except that at the last election, Zogby flat out nailed it. I think the one before that, too, but I am not sure.

  9. #49
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    Never count your commies before they hatch!

  10. #50
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    PA goes to McCain.

    Obama outspent Hillary 3-1 and still lost by 10 points. Blue collar/union DEMOCRATS will give the state to McCain.

    :jets18

  11. #51
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    [QUOTE=AlbanyJet;2769506]PA goes to McCain.

    Obama outspent Hillary 3-1 and still lost by 10 points. Blue collar/union DEMOCRATS will give the state to McCain.

    :jets18[/QUOTE]

    hey albany jet there's this little town called Philadelphia

    there's alot of people and it's about 10-1 ratio of obama supporters to mccain supporters

    and the turnout will be massive

    no way PA goes red, none.

  12. #52
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    [quote=bitonti;2769723]hey albany jet there's this little town called Philadelphia

    there's alot of people and it's about 10-1 ratio of obama supporters to mccain supporters

    and the turnout will be massive

    no way PA goes red, none.[/quote]

    The ratio is higher when you factor in all the dead people, criminals and illegals registered to vote for bo. Chicago politics at it's finest...

    Too bad Philly and Pittsburgh make up less than 1/5 of PA's total population. You're forgetting about all the "bitter clingers" that make up the rest of that rather large state.

    You libs are pretty smug. Just in case, you better keep your rope handy for November...

  13. #53
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    [QUOTE=AlbanyJet;2769506]PA goes to McCain.

    Obama outspent Hillary 3-1 and still lost by 10 points. Blue collar/union DEMOCRATS will give the state to McCain.

    :jets18[/QUOTE]

    Not going to happen AJ. I know this, and from what we have seen today, so does John McCain, yet another leap of faith.

    [url]http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/09/24/polls-in-battleground-states-show-obama-gaining-ground/[/url]
    [QUOTE]
    Obama has also apparently won supporters in Pennsylvania, which has voted for the Democrats in the last four presidential elections. The new pollindicates Obama has a 9 point lead over McCain among likely voters, 53 percentto 44 percent, and a similar 9 point advantage among registered voters. That'sup from a 4 point advantage Obama held in the Keystone state in late August,the last time CNN polled there. Twenty-one electoral votes are up for grabs in Pennsylvania.

    "Obama's biggest gains in Pennsylvania come in the areas of the state that have been hardest-hit by the economy — particularly rural areas in the western and central part of the state," Holland said. "That may be an early indication that the financial crisis on Wall Street will help Obama even in
    places like Altoona and Erie."[/QUOTE]

  14. #54
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    [QUOTE=AlbanyJet;2769506]PA goes to McCain.

    Obama outspent Hillary 3-1 and still lost by 10 points. Blue collar/union DEMOCRATS will give the state to McCain.

    :jets18[/QUOTE]

    I think you could be right about that...

    I don't think he'll win Michigan (even though the latest poll has him up +3) or Minnesota....with biden's latest gaffe's and the clinton supporters still wavering, Pa could definitely turn red...the internals of the latest ARG poll had to scare the sh!t out of hussien's campaign...

  15. #55
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    [QUOTE=bitonti;2769723]hey albany jet there's this little town called Philadelphia

    there's alot of people and it's about 10-1 ratio of obama supporters to mccain supporters

    and the turnout will be massive

    no way PA goes red, none.[/QUOTE]

    Bit - seriously, how do you explain Obama losing to Hillary by 10 points despite outspending Hillary 3-1? Democrats in Philadelphia voted in the Primary, didn't they?

    :jets18

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