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Thread: Dow cratering today

  1. #41
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    [QUOTE=jetstream23;2791294]I hate to agree...but I do. There is definitely an outside chance at Depression like economic numbers. In fact, I'll tell you two things I bought in the past month...

    [B]-RDQXZ[/B]....PUT (RDQ) S & P 500 DEPOSITORY DEC 104 (100 SHS)
    and
    [B]GLD[/B]...SPDR GOLD TR GOLD SHS

    Unfortunately, both are doing very well...but not enough to offset the decline in all my other stocks. :mad:[/QUOTE]

    I hear ya about the decline in stocks, my 401k and IRAs are dropping like a lost weight belt while scuba diving!

    as for my portfolio, I divested almost all of my holdings in 06 and 07 for the most part. Anything I still own, if I'm down big time but still believe in the company, I've started buying some more to lower my average purchase prices

    add in my gains (on paper, and soon to be ridiculous when hyper-inflation sets in) on my gold and silver holdings, most of which were purchased at < 600 and < 10 per ounce respectively (or inherited so free :D) and with my hedging hopefully I'm well positioned enough to weather the storm

  2. #42
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    [QUOTE=CTM;2791308]Who are you Jim Cramer :)

    Weren't you recommending buying not to long ago ;)[/QUOTE]

    I am buying a few things selectively. None of them except Gold and PUT options are working right now. But I still like the idea of buying companies like JNJ, etc. on down days. But, it has to be for a long time horizon.

  3. #43
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    [QUOTE=jetstream23;2791331]I am buying a few things selectively. None of them except Gold and PUT options are working right now. But I still like the idea of buying companies like JNJ, etc. on down days. But, it has to be for a [b]long time horizon.[/b][/QUOTE]

    VERY true these days... no short term positions for me because with all the crazy volatility it's way too tough to jump in and out unless you are an active and well-schooled day trader who is not risk adverse at all (with a bit of luck of course)
    Last edited by King Ryan; 10-06-2008 at 02:04 PM.

  4. #44
    [QUOTE=RutgersJetFan;2791325]the vacancy rate has increased since then by .1%.[/QUOTE]

    Forgive me, for my mathematics is not as good as it once was.....

    ....but I get that the RATE changed by 0.1%.

    What I'd prefer to see is the actual percentages of occupancy, not just for your three-state-service area, but for the Nation as a whole.

    Knowing something changed by 0.1% isn't really meaningful.

    Knowing we went from 75% Total Occupancy to 70% Total Occupancy would be a more meaningful way of detailing this, don't you think?

    Or am I off here?

  5. #45
    [QUOTE=Tanginius;2791314]Keep 5k in small bills in your safe at home. Take possession of your gold & silver holdings rather than keeping them stored in London or Zurich.....[/QUOTE]

    Riiiiiight.

    Because most middle-class folks have 5K just sitting around, and have deposits of gold and silver to move around.;):rolleyes::D

    Maybe you're speaking for the "middle class" that Obama claims to represent and stand for. But here in the real world, us real-world middle class folks don't have assets like that to toss around.

  6. #46
    [QUOTE=chesapeakejet;2791315]Now how can you say "with all due respect" and then hammer someone? It would be like me saying "That nuu faaola guy is as dumb as a bucket of rocks, God Bless him!" :D[/QUOTE]

    Warfish and I have that kind of relationship.

    We're a bit like Joe Biden and John McCain: "I love the guy and would take a bullet for him, but he's a dangerously unbalanced lunatic!"

  7. #47
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    [QUOTE=Warfish;2791341]Riiiiiight.

    Because most middle-class folks have 5K just sitting around, and have deposits of gold and silver to move around.;):rolleyes::D

    Maybe you're speaking for the "middle class" that Obama claims to represent and stand for. But here in the real world, us real-world middle class folks don't have assets like that to toss around.[/QUOTE]

    I didn't say "middle class" did I? I'm lost... was just offering pointers and advice, I didn't say anything about Obama or "middle class"

    but I hope everyone has at least 5k in savings, they are likely to need that much and likely a lot more over the next couple of years

    as for silver, you might have some and you don't even know it... any quarter or dime or 50 cent or dollar piece from 1964 or earlier is made of 90% silver. That old coin collection you have from when you are a kid, or that Aunt Millie left you, or even the coins that you got in change from the local super market can all be a part of your silver holdings. You don't have to buy Silver Maple Leafs or Silver Eagles from the Canadian or US mint to own silver!

    gold is preferred but if you can't pull 5k from your savings and put them in your safe, then it's unlikely you'll be buying 800+ dollar an ounce for gold and possibly unlikely that you have much gold bullion to begin with

  8. #48
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    [QUOTE=Tanginius;2791362]I didn't say "middle class" did I? I'm lost... was just offering pointers and advice, I didn't say anything about Obama or "middle class"
    [B]
    but I hope everyone has at least 5k in savings, they are likely to need that much and likely a lot more over the next couple of years
    [/B]
    as for silver, you might have some and you don't even know it... any quarter or dime or 50 cent or dollar piece from 1964 or earlier is made of 90% silver. That old coin collection you have from when you are a kid, or that Aunt Millie left you, or even the coins that you got in change from the local super market can all be a part of your silver holdings. You don't have to buy Silver Maple Leafs or Silver Eagles from the Canadian or US mint to own silver![/QUOTE]

    Where do you get that from?

  9. #49
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    [QUOTE=CTM;2791365]Where do you get that from?[/QUOTE]

    I guess it's from my bleeding heart compassion that is commonplace amongst us libtards? ;)


    oh, you mean the need much more over the coming years part? hehe... well if the deep recession we are facing, does indeed turn into a depression, and unemployment goes up to 12% or more (with true unemployment (including the underemployed, etc) approaching 20% or more, plus the government hemorrhaging money with limited revenue but continued expenditures having to resort to printing money and more money for this and other bailouts, inflation and possibly even hyper inflation could run rampant. So everything will cost more, we will be making less per capita adjusted for inflation and we might not have jobs so we can't pay the mortgage, credit card (hopefully you all pay your balances down to 0 each and every month), etc so we need to tap our savings

  10. #50
    [QUOTE=nuu faaola;2791361]Warfish and I have that kind of relationship.

    We're a bit like Joe Biden and John McCain: "I love the guy and would take a bullet for him, but he's a dangerously unbalanced lunatic!"[/QUOTE]

    Lol, true enough.:D

  11. #51
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    [QUOTE=Tanginius;2791336]VERY true these days... no short term positions for me because with all the crazy volatility it's way too tough to jump in and out unless you are an active and well-schooled day trader who is not risk adverse at all (with a bit of luck of course)[/QUOTE]

    Short term trading is pure gambling at this point. I'm not touching any bank or Financial right now (with the exception of GE).

    And even watching the carnage it is hard not to buy (for longterm purposes) some of the best companies in the world like JNJ, McDonald's, Microsoft, etc. Basically, companies that aren't going to disappear and look to be really cheap right now. But, you have to have a stomach for it. This is trying to pick out the babies that are being thrown out with the bathwater IMO.
    Last edited by jetstream23; 10-06-2008 at 02:45 PM.

  12. #52
    [QUOTE=Warfish;2791338]Forgive me, for my mathematics is not as good as it once was.....

    ....but I get that the RATE changed by 0.1%.

    What I'd prefer to see is the actual percentages of occupancy, not just for your three-state-service area, but for the Nation as a whole.

    Knowing something changed by 0.1% isn't really meaningful.

    Knowing we went from 75% Total Occupancy to 70% Total Occupancy would be a more meaningful way of detailing this, don't you think?

    Or am I off here?[/QUOTE]

    Yes and no.

    You're asking the correct question, but the answer you're looking for is provided in that statistic. Regardless, I'll simplify it.

    For the second question, I ran a nationwide search on industrial buildings ranging from 5,000 to 1,000,000 square feet. That is an extremely large dataset to include, and if that doesn't satisfy you, I don't know what will. It encompasses almost 32,500 buildings nationwide.

    Now, so you can get the exact numbers that you want, here it goes:

    Q3 of 2008 = 2.3 billion square feet total. 1.325 billion square feet occupied.

    Q1 of 2007 = 2.13 billion square feet total. 1.597 square feet occupied.

    Q3 of 2008 = 57% of industrial square footage occupied.

    Q1 of 2007 = 74.9% of industrial square footage occupied.

  13. #53
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    [QUOTE=jetstream23;2791385]Short term trading is pure gambling at this point. I'm not touching any bank for Financial right now (with the exception of GE).

    And even watching the carnage it is hard not to buy (for longterm purposes) some of the best companies in the world like JNJ, McDonald's, Microsoft, etc. Basically, companies that aren't going to disappear and look to be really cheap right now. But, you have to have a stomach for it. This is trying to pick out the babies that are being thrown out with the bathwater IMO.[/QUOTE]

    there is so much bad paper and the 800 lb gorilla of the CDS and other unregulated derivatives hiding in the room that I agree the whole financial sector is off limits right now (can you imagine how low the prices would be if shorting them was allowed right now?!?), and you can't tell from the documentation what their true obligations and holdings are. Even the low priced and well capitalized ones with good or even pre-crisis tier 1 capital ratios are not worth it imho

    I hear ya on the babies and bathwater, and I think even they will continue to fall (and like you elude to, undeservedly so to some extent). Although if I was in the market, some of those would be on my target list

  14. #54
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    [QUOTE=Tanginius;2791400]there is so much bad paper and the 800 lb gorilla of the CDS and other unregulated derivatives hiding in the room that I agree the whole financial sector is off limits right now [B](can you imagine how low the prices would be if shorting them was allowed right now?!?), [/B]
    [/QUOTE]

    True. But to some extent, short selling creates pent up demand. I was against the short selling ban (preferred revising the uptick rule) because selling short creates demand. Those sold shares must be purchased to cover at some point.

    [QUOTE]
    and you can't tell from the documentation what their true obligations and holdings are. Even the low priced and well capitalized ones with good or even pre-crisis tier 1 capital ratios are not worth it imho[/QUOTE]

    You're touching on the 2 most interesting questions of the bailout:

    1. How do you price these things? (Can't be mark-to-market, can't be hold to maturity, has to be something in between)
    2. How do you conduct the orderly buying and selling of this stuff? A market? Can private industry participate???

    [QUOTE]
    I hear ya on the babies and bathwater, and I think even they will continue to fall (and like you elude to, undeservedly so to some extent). Although if I was in the market, some of those would be on my target list[/QUOTE]

    Yup. I think they will continue to go down as well but I can't pick bottoms so it's a good time to start averaging in to some of these names. Buy a little each month for example.

  15. #55
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    [QUOTE=jetstream23;2791443]Yup. I think they will continue to go down as well but I can't pick bottoms so it's a good time to start averaging in to some of these names. Buy a little each month for example.[/QUOTE]

    I agree and if you're getting them at a good value and intending to hold them for some time, it's fine. As for buying a little each month... not a bad idea in this market, it will smooth out the crazy volatility and ensure you continue to lower your average purchase price as the market recedes further, all while getting these shares at a low price again assuming you're getting them at a good value and don't need to liquidate your holdings for the next 5 years or so

  16. #56
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    [QUOTE=Tanginius;2791377]I guess it's from my bleeding heart compassion that is commonplace amongst us libtards? ;)


    oh, you mean the need much more over the coming years part? hehe... well if the deep recession we are facing, does indeed turn into a depression, and unemployment goes up to 12% or more (with true unemployment (including the underemployed, etc) approaching 20% or more, plus the government hemorrhaging money with limited revenue but continued expenditures having to resort to printing money and more money for this and other bailouts, inflation and possibly even hyper inflation could run rampant. So everything will cost more, we will be making less per capita adjusted for inflation and we might not have jobs so we can't pay the mortgage, credit card (hopefully you all pay your balances down to 0 each and every month), etc so we need to tap our savings[/QUOTE]
    I understand inflation, I'm asking why you advised WF to keep cash, gold and silver and a gun handy.

  17. #57
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    [QUOTE=CTM;2791488]I understand inflation, I'm asking why you advised WF to keep cash, gold and silver and a gun handy.[/QUOTE]

    don't forget food and seed stocks!


    just in case everything does grind to a halt and you need something of value to barter with, or something to protect yourself and your valuable with, or something to eat or be able to grow to be able to eat, etc

    basically as a hedge against a possible, but unlikely, collapse or another Great Depression

  18. #58
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    Once again, this may be too simple an idea, and I obviously don't have the financial know or the overall foreign policy education that most of you do, but I'm wondering why now isn't the time to pull out of Iraq.

    I just don't see why we should spend another dime of our money over there when things seem to be in such dire straights over here. We just dropped nearly a trillion in bailout money, and the market is still in the toilet. I know the bailout wasn't directly to save the market, but if it continues at this rate, there will be big problems that will negate a lot of the positives of this bailout, no?

    On top of that, what better excuse than 'things are such a mess at home that we cannot continue to drain money overseas {nation-building} until we are on more stable ground at home'. It's downright patriotic.

    I'm sure something (many things?) make this a terrible idea, could someone please tell me what they are?

  19. #59
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    [QUOTE=Tanginius;2791495]don't forget food and seed stocks!


    just in case everything does grind to a halt and you need something of value to barter with, or something to protect yourself and your valuable with, or something to eat or be able to grow to be able to eat, etc

    basically as a hedge against a possible, but unlikely, collapse or another Great Depression[/QUOTE]

    Plus, you're also prepared in the event of a zombie invasion.

  20. #60
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    [QUOTE=EY;2791497]Once again, this may be too simple an idea, and I obviously don't have the financial know or the overall foreign policy education that most of you do, but I'm wondering why now isn't the time to pull out of Iraq.

    I just don't see why we should spend another dime of our money over there when things seem to be in such dire straights over here. We just dropped nearly a trillion in bailout money, and the market is still in the toilet. I know the bailout wasn't directly to save the market, but if it continues at this rate, there will be big problems that will negate a lot of the positives of this bailout, no?

    On top of that, what better excuse than 'things are such a mess at home that we cannot continue to drain money overseas {nation-building} until we are on more stable ground at home'. It's downright patriotic.

    I'm sure something (many things?) make this a terrible idea, could someone please tell me what they are?[/QUOTE]

    Personally I'd like the new Iraqi government to cut us a big fat check for expenses + interest with all of that black gold revenue... :yes:

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