[QUOTE=Roger Vick;2793118]Don't EVER let tax considerations dictate what you do with a stock!
It is always better to make money and pay taxes than to lose money and not pay taxes.[/QUOTE]
Agree 100% but if I'm sitting on 10 PUTS for the S&P 500 while also owning 100 shares of SPY, there are two ways to continue positioning myself for further declines.....buy more PUTS or sell my SPY shares. One requires cash and the other returns cash and recognizes a tax loss at this point. That's the consideration on the table.
[QUOTE=Tanginius;2791293]WF, if we were talking about an equal increase in supply to the expected decrease in demand... then you'd be right that the increase in supply *should* make the futures market move the same amount (opposite direction obviously)...
however what you are forgetting is that the expected/possible increase in supply from increased US domestic drilling is so minuscule (we have a tiny fraction of the world's supply of oil, and therefore we can never have a large impact in the amount of oil produced) and the expected/possible decrease in demand from global economic recession (depression?) so gigantic, that the price swings are on completely different scales.
you would be right, except you are forgetting to take scale into consideration... very small increase in worldwide supply < very large decrease in worldwide demand[/QUOTE]
“NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. retail gasoline demand dropped to its lowest level since September 2005 as gasoline demand dwindled due to the wider U.S. economic slowdown, MasterCard Advisors said Tuesday.”
the dow was down 800 but recovered to be down about 400
the market opened up about 100 points - fluctuating as we speak
[B]but my point is things are never as bad as the media makes them out to be [/B]
and there will be 100 stories about a crash maybe 1 story about the recovery from that crash
financial news is not that different from "real" news
there's good news out there but if it bleeds it leads.[/QUOTE]
Not always true. The media is finally starting to report on the widespread economic ramifications that are taking place.
Here's one data point on how strange things are in the real economy (not the stock market) - The car repossesion man (the repo man) has fallen are hard times. People are increasingly not making car payments and falling behind. But the repo man is seeing declining business. Why? Because the banks do not want the cars back. They can't fina an economical way to store them and they can't sell them. So, even collateralized loans like car loans are causing huge problems for the economy in ways people never expected. How strange is that???