Enjoy an Ads-Free Jets Insider - Become a Jets Insider VIP!
Page 3 of 3 FirstFirst 123
Results 41 to 59 of 59

Thread: How bad can a recession get in our current day?

  1. #41
    Hall Of Fame
    Join Date
    Sep 2006
    Location
    Rockland, New York
    Posts
    5,359
    Post Thanks / Like
    [QUOTE=CTM;2792986]Boy does that sound familiar..

    Our growth in recent years has been debt fueled and hence a mirage. Been saying it for awhile, but unfortunately I had no idea how to profit off of any of this :confused:[/QUOTE]

    Well, if you shorted stocks before the fall you could be making a bundle.

  2. #42
    Hall Of Fame
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Location
    Not bababooey and I resent the implication
    Posts
    21,029
    Post Thanks / Like
    [QUOTE=Jets Voice of Reason;2793007]Well, if you shorted stocks before the fall you could be making a bundle.[/QUOTE]

    Lol yes, but I've been predicting this for 4 years. Had I started then, I would've lost my shirt before we even got to now ;)

  3. #43
    Jets Insider VIP
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
    Location
    Phoenix, AZ (New Jets Stadium Section 246)
    Posts
    34,641
    Post Thanks / Like
    [QUOTE=Roger Vick;2792949]Thanks for all that.

    I still haven't seen people change their economic behavior much, if at all.[/QUOTE]

    It's starting to change.

    [QUOTE]NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Borrowing by consumers fell in August for the first time in more than 10 years as a weak economy continued to strain household budgets, according to a government report issued Tuesday.

    The Federal Reserve reported that consumer borrowing decreased by $7.9 billion in August to $2.577 trillion from a revised $2.585 trillion in July.

    The annual rate of consumer borrowing fell 3.7% last month. Credit card borrowing decreased at an annual rate of 0.8% while nonrevolving borrowing, including student and auto loans, contracted by 5.4% in August.

    Tuesday's report marks the first time consumer credit has shrunk since January 1998, when it dropped $4.7 billion, or a 4.3% annual rate[/QUOTE]

  4. #44
    All League
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Wildcat Country
    Posts
    4,749
    Post Thanks / Like
    [QUOTE=jetstream23;2793199]It's starting to change.[/QUOTE]

    Yeah but is that a choice made by consumers or simply an indication of banks not lending. It's got to be the latter.

  5. #45
    Jets Insider VIP
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
    Location
    Phoenix, AZ (New Jets Stadium Section 246)
    Posts
    34,641
    Post Thanks / Like
    [QUOTE=BushyTheBeaver;2793212]Yeah but is that a choice made by consumers or simply an indication of banks not lending. It's got to be the latter.[/QUOTE]

    Not completely clear. Maybe a bit of both but you're probably right, more the latter. I've heard the banks are aggressively trying to trim their risk exposure on credit cards by lowering limits, closing dormant accounts, etc.

  6. #46
    Hall Of Fame
    Join Date
    Sep 2006
    Location
    Rockland, New York
    Posts
    5,359
    Post Thanks / Like
    [QUOTE=jetstream23;2793226]Not completely clear. Maybe a bit of both but you're probably right, more the latter. I've heard the banks are aggressively trying to trim their risk exposure on credit cards by lowering limits, closing dormant accounts, etc.[/QUOTE]

    You mean risk management? My god, why would a bank ever want to do that? :D

  7. #47
    Hall Of Fame
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Location
    Not bababooey and I resent the implication
    Posts
    21,029
    Post Thanks / Like
    From Yahoooooo not good..

    [QUOTE] Fed to lend to companies in emergency move

    By JEANNINE AVERSA, AP Economics Writer 32 minutes ago

    Frantically trying to stop the bleeding on Wall Street, the Federal Reserve took a first-time step Tuesday to get cash directly to businesses and hinted that interest rates could come down soon. Stocks continued their free fall anyway and hit new five-year lows.

    The central bank invoked emergency powers to lend money to companies outside the financial sector and buy up mounds of commercial paper, the short-term debt that firms use to pay for everyday expenses like salaries and supplies.

    The Fed, which has only loaned money to banks before, made the move as the gravest financial crisis in decades wore on and concern spread around the world.

    In a speech to the National Association for Business Economics, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke delivered a strong signal interest rates may need to be cut. And he warned the country could be stuck in the economic doldrums for some time.

    "The outlook for economic growth has worsened," Bernanke said. "The heightened financial turmoil that we have experienced of late may well lengthen the period of weak economic performance."

    The gloomy assessment appeared to open the door wider to an interest rate cut on or before the Fed convenes again Oct. 28. The Fed's key interest rate now stands at 2 percent.

    Wall Street turned its back. The Dow Jones industrials lost 508 points, more than 5 percent, to close at 9,447, the lowest since Sept. 30, 2003. The Standard & Poor's 500, a broader stock index, closed below 1,000 for the first time since that same day.

    President Bush again sought to strike a reassuring tone and said the nation would make it through an economy blighted by job losses, record foreclosures and shriveled retirement savings. Congress' top budget analyst estimated Tuesday that Americans' retirement plans have lost as much as $2 trillion in 15 months.

    "Have faith, this economy is going to recover over time," the president said in a speech in Virginia. "I wish I could snap my fingers and make what happened stop. But that's not the way it works."

    Bush reached out to European leaders earlier Tuesday to urge coordination on efforts to solve the crisis. The White House said Bush was open to the idea of a summit.

    The contagion has spread overseas. Britain's chief financial regulator was readying a statement to make before markets opened Wednesday, and the BBC reported that the British government was poised to announce a rescue package for the banking system there.

    Concerns are mounting that a global recession is developing, and pressure is growing on the U.S. government to do something beyond the $700 billion financial bailout package that Bush signed into law Friday.

    To that end, the Fed announced it would begin buying companies' short-term debt. The powers were bestowed during the Depression as part of the Federal Reserve Act.

    The government's bailout package is aimed at thawing lending by buying bad mortgage-related debt off the books of troubled financial institutions. The idea is that the banks would then be in a better position to lend and get the economy moving.

    Commercial paper borrowing usually ranges from overnight to less than a week. But in the current climate of mistrust, the market has dried up considerably.

    The action makes the Fed a crucial source of credit for nonfinancial businesses in addition to commercial banks and investment firms and also exposes it to risk because so much of the debt would not be backed by collateral.

    Credit markets, clenched up for weeks now, relaxed somewhat after the Fed's move.

    The Fed said it was creating a new entity to buy two types of short-term debt, known as three-month unsecured and asset-backed commercial paper, directly from eligible companies. It hopes to have the program up and running soon, Fed officials said.

    Fed officials said they would buy as much of the debt as necessary to get the market functioning again but refused to say how much that might be. They noted that around $1.3 trillion worth of commercial paper would qualify.

    The Treasury Department, which worked with the Fed on the program, said the action was "necessary to prevent substantial disruptions to the financial markets and the economy."

    The Treasury will provide money to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York to support the new program, the Fed said. The money would be separate from the $700 billion financial bailout package.

    The Fed said it planned to stop buying the short-term debt on April 30 but may extend the program.

    There was $1.6 trillion in outstanding commercial paper, seasonally adjusted, on the market as of last week, the most recent data from the Fed. The market has shrunk from $2.2 trillion last summer.

    ___ [/QUOTE]

  8. #48
    Hall Of Fame
    Charter JI Member

    Join Date
    May 1999
    Location
    L.I. NY (where the Jets used to be from)
    Posts
    13,305
    Post Thanks / Like
    It depends how big the tax increases are...

  9. #49
    Hall Of Fame
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Location
    Not bababooey and I resent the implication
    Posts
    21,029
    Post Thanks / Like
    [QUOTE=Piper;2793709]It depends how big the tax increases are...[/QUOTE]

    It this in response to my post?

  10. #50
    Hall Of Fame
    Charter JI Member

    Join Date
    May 1999
    Location
    L.I. NY (where the Jets used to be from)
    Posts
    13,305
    Post Thanks / Like
    [QUOTE=CTM;2793710]It this in response to my post?[/QUOTE]

    Sorry, no. It is in response to the thread starter.

  11. #51
    All Pro
    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Posts
    1,171
    Post Thanks / Like
    [QUOTE=jetstream23;2792960]It's coming. Whether they want to or not, they'll have to. The faucet is being turned off.

    When swiping the card at Banana Republic brings back a "Declined" response...[/QUOTE]

    Then why do I keep getting applications for credit cards in the mail? And those blank checks from my credit card co. to spend anyway I please? I've got a good credit rating so apparently I can get more credit if I want!

    I'm going to my banker soon to talk about a refi...I'll let you know what he/she says!

    As far as that surplus under Clinton? That was more the 'pub congress than his doing...to bad the 'pubs started acting like 'rats!

  12. #52
    Hall Of Fame
    Join Date
    Oct 2007
    Location
    Dallas Via Brooklyn NY
    Posts
    3,159
    Post Thanks / Like
    [QUOTE=EY;2792402]I thought I had money saved for a rainy day... but it's flooding away in the market.

    My checking account is bloated because I'm horrified to do anything with the money.[/QUOTE]

    Put your money in gold and silver coins you wont regret it .

  13. #53
    Hall Of Fame
    Join Date
    Apr 2003
    Location
    Philly
    Posts
    38,782
    Post Thanks / Like
    [QUOTE=Smashmouth;2795602]Put your money in gold and silver coins you wont regret it .[/QUOTE]

    JI political forum financial plan:

    buy gold and silver bullion

    bury in basement

    next to canned goods and bottled water

    buy shotguns and seeds

    to protect the homestead

    weather impending apocalypse

    fight the zombie army!

  14. #54
    All Pro
    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Posts
    1,171
    Post Thanks / Like
    I wonder who made the big bucks on the market today?

    If you had bought $10K of Ford stock at it's opening price and sold at it peak, you would have pocketed a cool $8K+.

    Opened at $2.96 and high of $5.47 today

    [url]http://money.cnn.com/quote/quote.html?symb=F[/url]

  15. #55
    Veteran
    Join Date
    Sep 2005
    Location
    The Land of Superior Men
    Posts
    1,542
    Post Thanks / Like
    [QUOTE=bitonti;2795639]JI political forum financial plan:

    buy gold and silver bullion

    bury in basement

    next to canned goods and bottled water

    buy shotguns and seeds

    to protect the homestead

    weather impending apocalypse

    fight the zombie army![/QUOTE]

    Has anyone here ever read [U]The Road[/U] by Cormac MacCarthy? That's exactly what this whole scenario reminds me of.

  16. #56
    Veteran
    Join Date
    Jul 2008
    Location
    Portland Oregon
    Posts
    104
    Post Thanks / Like
    [QUOTE=asuusa;2795652]I wonder who made the big bucks on the market today?

    If you had bought $10K of Ford stock at it's opening price and sold at it peak, you would have pocketed a cool $8K+.

    Opened at $2.96 and high of $5.47 today

    [url]http://money.cnn.com/quote/quote.html?symb=F[/url][/QUOTE]

    Yes that is the ticket. It is when fear grips the economy and every one is preching doom and gloom, that is the time to start buying.

    I have a order in for Amazon at 55. Sold a hundred shares a month and a half ago for 88. In 2001 after 9/11 I perchased Amazon at 7. Only a hundred shares though. Too bad I did not have more conviction.

    I like to bottom feed. I like buying when others are saying the sky is falling. I have learned to stick with the big strong cash king companies in thier respective industries.

    I to still get credit card offers and recently took out a credit line for 7500 dollars at zero percent for over a year just a month ago. Basically I will buy stocks with it.

    No worries as I am not over extended. So excuse me while I kiss the sky.

  17. #57
    Jets Insider VIP
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
    Location
    Phoenix, AZ (New Jets Stadium Section 246)
    Posts
    34,641
    Post Thanks / Like
    [QUOTE=asuusa;2795652]I wonder who made the big bucks on the market today?

    If you had bought $10K of Ford stock at it's opening price and sold at it peak, you would have pocketed a cool $8K+.

    Opened at $2.96 and high of $5.47 today

    [url]http://money.cnn.com/quote/quote.html?symb=F[/url][/QUOTE]

    I really wanted to protect against a downturn but didn't want to sell my stocks so I simply bought a PUT option on the SPY (S&P 500). A relatively cheap way to insure against a broad market decline. It's up almost 200% since I bought it on Sept. 30th. Still doesn't make up for all the losses I've suffered in GE, Apple, JNJ, etc. but it does take a lot of the sting out.

  18. #58
    Veteran
    Join Date
    Jul 2008
    Location
    Portland Oregon
    Posts
    104
    Post Thanks / Like
    [QUOTE=jetstream23;2795708]I really wanted to protect against a downturn but didn't want to sell my stocks so I simply bought a PUT option on the SPY (S&P 500). A relatively cheap way to insure against a broad market decline. It's up almost 200% since I bought it on Sept. 30th. Still doesn't make up for all the losses I've suffered in GE, Apple, JNJ, etc. but it does take a lot of the sting out.[/QUOTE]

    That sounds good. I will have to read up on PUT options. As I don't know much about them.

    It might be a little late to catch things going down now.

    In the last week the dow has lost around 800 or more points so that was a good thing you did in hind sight. I will be very surprized if the dow goes below 8000. I know you are talking S&P but all the major indices are so down.

  19. #59
    Hall Of Fame
    Join Date
    Oct 2007
    Location
    Dallas Via Brooklyn NY
    Posts
    3,159
    Post Thanks / Like
    I did not read the posts but to answer the question I think a recession would be even harder to come out of now as we continually deplete the middle class of jobs in this country. Its only going to get worse unless someone does something about it. While China and other nations prosper we will begin to feel the hurt if this trend continues.

    The middle class is the engine that runs this country and since those days are slowly coming to a close Im not sure anyone can predict how our country will fair when thrown into a deep recession which is what were heading for. We are treading in uncharted waters and IMHO im not sure its going to work out all too well.

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

Follow Us