Page 2 of 2 FirstFirst 12
Results 21 to 32 of 32

Thread: Meltdown day for world economy?

  1. #21
    Banned
    Join Date
    Mar 2005
    Location
    Long Island
    Posts
    13,518
    [QUOTE=PlumberKhan;2794724]You're a good man, 'Fish.

    Plenty of "folks" who could qualify for traditional mortgages opted for sub-primes to keep their monthly payments low...banking on the belief that their home would increase in value undeterred and they could resell.[/QUOTE]

    I know a ton of people (morons?) who bought their homes on impulse, buying a home that was priced way beyond their means without putting two and two together and realizing there was no way they'd be able to make the payments.

    The cause of this crisis goes beyond government and the banks.

  2. #22
    Hall Of Fame
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Location
    Not bababooey and I resent the implication
    Posts
    21,029
    [QUOTE=PlumberKhan;2794724]You're a good man, 'Fish.

    Plenty of "folks" who could qualify for traditional mortgages opted for sub-primes to keep their monthly payments low...banking on the belief that their home would increase in value undeterred and they could resell.[/QUOTE]
    There's a difference between "sub-prime" loans and ARMS. You seem to be convoluting the two.

  3. #23
    JetsInsider.com Legend
    Join Date
    Jan 2004
    Posts
    37,928
    [QUOTE=PlumberKhan;2794724]You're a good man, 'Fish.

    Plenty of "folks" who could qualify for traditional mortgages opted for sub-primes to keep their monthly payments low...banking on the belief that their home would increase in value undeterred and they could resell.[/QUOTE]

    I can't honestly tell if you're being sarcastic or not.......:(

    But I absolutely agree that many many people bought beyond their means in the belief that their interest-only, sub-prime or other "low-cost" loans would be fine due to increases in the value of their property, i.e. the Speculators, House Flippers and Plenty of Regular Folks looking to get more than they could afford.

    The Housing Bubble collpases, the loans invert, property gets harder to sell and the credit market dries up, and alot of people are left holding the fiscal bag.

    The conservative side of me says these folks took a risk, because they saw a potential big profit coming, or they lived beyond their means, or were ignorant and didn't inform themselves, or were led to beleive they'd be fine by mortgage companies. In any case, they still made a personal choice, and they alone should bear the burdens of that choice......

    Of course, when your entire economy starts looking fragile because of the depth and width of this (and other) problems, the concept of personal responsabillity runs up againsty the concept of "best for the Nation as a whole". So I can see a bit of both sides of the bail/don't bail concept.

  4. #24
    All Pro
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Location
    greenwich village, NYC
    Posts
    8,159
    [QUOTE=sourceworx;2794733]I know a ton of people (morons?) who bought their homes on impulse, buying a home that was priced way beyond their means without putting two and two together and realizing there was no way they'd be able to make the payments.

    The cause of this crisis goes beyond government and the banks.[/QUOTE]

    The crisis also goes beyond sub-primes. Prime mortgage purchasers are now hitting record high default rates as well due to lost house equity, inability to convert loans, and massive unemployment.

    What I'm struck by in all of this is the herd mentality reflecting in the patterns. People bought houses they couldn't afford or took loans they couldn't sustain over time for fear that housing would just continue to climb and be forever out of reach. They had to get in or believe they would be left out. The idea of cycles seemed lost in the thunder of hooves.

    In the stock market... same thing. The panic is escalating due to no one wanting to be left holding the bag on when the great depression hits. But this too is cyclical. For those who rely immediately on their investments, it's one thing, but for those in thrifts who can hold out, now is not the time to be unloading (at the low point in the market) when all one is doing is locking in loss. The psychology is interesting.

  5. #25
    Jets Insider VIP
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
    Location
    Phoenix, AZ (Jets Stadium Section 246)
    Posts
    35,906
    [QUOTE=bitonti;2794635]dow up about 70 points this morning

    it's never as bad as the media thinks it is[/QUOTE]

    Don't listen to the media, bit. Listen to the markets.

  6. #26
    Hall Of Fame
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Location
    Not bababooey and I resent the implication
    Posts
    21,029
    [QUOTE=long island leprechaun;2794764]The crisis also goes beyond sub-primes. Prime mortgage purchasers are now hitting record high default rates as well due to lost house equity, inability to convert loans, and massive unemployment.

    What I'm struck by in all of this is the herd mentality reflecting in the patterns. People bought houses they couldn't afford or took loans they couldn't sustain over time for fear that housing would just continue to climb and be forever out of reach. They had to get in or believe they would be left out. The idea of cycles seemed lost in the thunder of hooves.

    In the stock market... same thing. The panic is escalating due to no one wanting to be left holding the bag on when the great depression hits. But this too is cyclical. For those who rely immediately on their investments, it's one thing, but for those in thrifts who can hold out, now is not the time to be unloading (at the low point in the market) when all one is doing is locking in loss.[B] The psychology is interesting.[/B][/QUOTE]
    Yup. Good post. It's why I stopped day trading. Had a nasty, uncontrollable habit of doing the same in quick moving markets. Bought on the way up, near the top thinking I was missing the next million dollar run, sold on the way down, near the bottom, thinking I was getting out before the stock was worthless.

    The amazing thing was that I knew better, but just couldn't control the visceral response to market speed. It's a very strange feeling, I guess you would call it panic.

    I've been tempted to dip my toe in again, but I don't know if this kind of tendency is one you can out think..

  7. #27
    Jets Insider VIP
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
    Location
    Phoenix, AZ (Jets Stadium Section 246)
    Posts
    35,906
    [IMG]http://img517.imageshack.us/img517/7824/dow5yrlf4.jpg[/IMG]

  8. #28
    [QUOTE=jetstream23;2794797][IMG]http://img517.imageshack.us/img517/7824/dow5yrlf4.jpg[/IMG][/QUOTE]

    honestly 23 this is not evidence of a meltdown

    it's evidence of a correction

    the market was overvalued for years, now it is correcting

    it might even over-correct

    all that is actualy good news

    what would be bad news is a collapse.

  9. #29
    Jets Insider VIP
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
    Location
    Phoenix, AZ (Jets Stadium Section 246)
    Posts
    35,906
    [QUOTE=bitonti;2794810]honestly 23 this is not evidence of a meltdown

    it's evidence of a correction

    the market was overvalued for years, now it is correcting

    it might even over-correct

    all that is actualy good news

    what would be bad news is a collapse.[/QUOTE]

    I agree. I'm not saying it's evidence of meltdown (and there was a ? in my thread title) but there are clearly things being done on a global basis that have never been done before in efforts to combat a very bad situation. This isn't the dotcom crumble of 2000 or the Asian financial crisis of 1988, or even the S&L problem. This seems to be worse.

    I like corrections as well, but pointing to Dow up 70, as you did earlier when the Dow is down 5000 from it's recent high is like admiring the silverware on the Titanic as it is sinking. The problem isn't that we may likely see Dow 7500. It's that we may not return to anything like 10,000 in the next decade.

    $2 Trillion in retirement assets have evaporated for Americans in the past 2 weeks. It may not "be as bad as the media says it is" but they are on to something.

  10. #30
    [QUOTE=jetstream23;2794826The problem isn't that we may likely see Dow 7500. It's that we may not return to anything like 10,000 in the next decade.
    [/QUOTE]

    we didn't know the tech bubble was coming

    we didn't know the real estate bubble was coming

    there will be another bubble, maybe alt energy, maybe space exploration

    we don't know when it will arrive but something always comes up

  11. #31
    Hall Of Fame
    Charter JI Member

    Join Date
    May 1999
    Location
    L.I. NY (where the Jets used to be from)
    Posts
    13,396
    [QUOTE=bitonti;2794912]we didn't know the tech bubble was coming

    we didn't know the real estate bubble was coming

    there will be another bubble, maybe alt energy, maybe space exploration

    we don't know when it will arrive but something always comes up[/QUOTE]

    Usually at the hands of private industry, not government programs.

  12. #32
    Jets Insider VIP
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
    Location
    Phoenix, AZ (Jets Stadium Section 246)
    Posts
    35,906
    [QUOTE=bitonti;2794912]we didn't know the tech bubble was coming

    we didn't know the real estate bubble was coming

    there will be another bubble, maybe alt energy, maybe space exploration

    we don't know when it will arrive but something always comes up[/QUOTE]

    Tulips ;)

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

Follow Us