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Thread: McCain is going to win

  1. #21
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    [QUOTE=Tucker134;2809684]In 1988, George H.W. Bush beat Michael Dukakis by a whopping 53.4 percent to 45.6 percent. A New York Times/CBS News Poll on Oct. 5 had Bush leading the Greek homunculus by a statistically insignificant 2 points -- 45 percent to 43 percent. (For the kids out there: Before it became a clearinghouse for anti-Bush conspiracy theories, CBS News was considered a credible journalistic entity.)

    A week later -- or one tank ride later, depending on who's telling the story -- on Oct. 13, Bush was leading Dukakis in The New York Times Poll by a mere 5 points.[/QUOTE]

    let me know if your giving points. I'll take that bet!

  2. #22
    [QUOTE=jetstream23;2809691]A few thoughts...

    1. Polling is much better these days than 20 years ago in my opinion, although still nowhere near perfect.
    2. It's a much easier to take a poll of "likely voters" by phone or otherwise than to predict their turnout at the polls.
    3. As we all know, it's ALL about the swing states. You can lose the popular vote by 2% and still lose a landslide in the electoral college.
    4. Dukakis riding in the tank could be the single dorkiest thing I've ever seen a candidate do. He looked like Fred Savage from Wonder Years with that helmet on.[/QUOTE]


    How do you explain the exit polls in 2000? Bush was getting walloped in OH & FL...

    Dukakis was a good man, but he couldnt get out of his own way...

  3. #23
    [QUOTE=jetstream23;2809700]Any chance you'll do that here too? :P :D[/QUOTE]

    :D

    Sorry.. Obama has engaged me, as well as other I believe, you might call that "Obamanisum" ;)
    Last edited by Tyler Durden; 10-18-2008 at 02:35 PM.

  4. #24
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    [QUOTE=Tucker134;2809707]How do you explain the exit polls in 2000? Bush was getting walloped in OH & FL...

    Dukakis was a good man, but he couldnt get out of his own way...[/QUOTE]

    I can't explain it, only to say that maybe more people lie than we think. There are some rumblings that enthusiastic Obama supporters are more vocal and eager to say they voted for him. Exit polling in the primaries against Hillary was very far off in some cases.

    What if during this whole election cycle, people like me have been answering the phone saying we're voting for Obama just to let him get comfortable and think he really as this lead? ;)

    Obama can win 27 Gallup polls in a row and win every exit poll, but if he doesn't win the votes on Nov. 4th then....
    Last edited by jetstream23; 10-18-2008 at 02:43 PM.

  5. #25
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    The real problem for McCain is not the national point polls, but the electoral map. He is getting murdered. He is losing too many states with little time left. even if he swings half those states in his favor he may still lose.

    the link shows the map, a fairly reliable site. if you click on the 2004 link, it shows the race a dead heat, which it was



    [URL="http://http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Obama/Maps/May18.html"]http://http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Obama/Maps/May18.html[/URL]

  6. #26
    [QUOTE=jetstream23;2809710]I can't explain it, only to say that maybe more people lie than we think. There are some rumblings that enthusiastic Obama supporters are more vocal and eager to say they voted for him. Exit polling in the primaries against Hillary was very far off in some cases.

    What if, this whole election cycle, people like me have been answering the phone saying we're voting for Obama just to let him get comfortable and think he really as this lead? ;)

    Obama can win 27 Gallup polls in a row and win every exit poll, but if he doesn't win the votes on Nov. 4th then....
    [/QUOTE]


    That's what i'm saying!! I don't think people realize how well McCain's appearance on Letterman & his speech at the Alfred Smith dinner will resonate with undecided voters..he's finally showing the sense of humor that he's been known for- On the other hand, he should keep Palin quiet for the next 2 weeks...she hasn't been impressive at all IMO..& I was rooting for her

  7. #27
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    [URL="http://http://www.electoral-vote.com/"]http://http://www.electoral-vote.com/[/URL]



    sorry wrong date and did not work


    maybe this works

  8. #28
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    Obama = Socialism. Period. For those of you that have lived in the US all your lives and have never experienced anything other than a democracy, beware. You will not like what see 4 years from now. I despise socialism - I have no desire to elect a President that will gravitate towards "spreading the wealth" as Obama calls it.

    For those of you that vote for Obama - it's your constitutional right to vote for whomever you please. If you are convinced that he will "fix" the economy, improve foreign policy, single handedly resolve the long term energy crisis, get us out of Iraq with no fallout, and maintain safety in our borders - good for you! I don't see that happening.

    But at the end of the day, I will NOT vote for anyone that I believe has a liberal and socialist point of view, which Obama does. That's my right as well.

    Happy voting - I sure hope the polls are wrong, but I fear they are on the money! :(

  9. #29
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    [QUOTE=TexJet;2809719]Obama = Socialism. Period. For those of you that have lived in the US all your lives and have never experienced anything other than a democracy, beware. You will not like what see 4 years from now. I despise socialism - I have no desire to elect a President that will gravitate towards "spreading the wealth" as Obama calls it.

    For those of you that vote for Obama - it's your constitutional right to vote for whomever you please. If you are convinced that he will "fix" the economy, improve foreign policy, single handedly resolve the long term energy crisis, get us out of Iraq with no fallout, and maintain safety in our borders - good for you! I don't see that happening.

    But at the end of the day, I will NOT vote for anyone that I believe has a liberal and socialist point of view, which Obama does. That's my right as well.

    Happy voting - I sure hope the polls are wrong, but I fear they are on the money! :([/QUOTE]

    I guess this means you did not vote for W. Bailout Bush:confused:

  10. #30
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    [QUOTE=TexJet;2809719]Obama = Socialism. Period. For those of you that have lived in the US all your lives and have never experienced anything other than a democracy, beware. You will not like what see 4 years from now. I despise socialism - I have no desire to elect a President that will gravitate towards "spreading the wealth" as Obama calls it.

    For those of you that vote for Obama - it's your constitutional right to vote for whomever you please. If you are convinced that he will "fix" the economy, improve foreign policy, single handedly resolve the long term energy crisis, get us out of Iraq with no fallout, and maintain safety in our borders - good for you! I don't see that happening.

    But at the end of the day, I will NOT vote for anyone that I believe has a liberal and socialist point of view, which Obama does. That's my right as well.

    Happy voting - I sure hope the polls are wrong, but I fear they are on the money! :([/QUOTE]

    This socialism word is thrown around constantly and people use is as a hate word. Democracy and socialism coexist everywhere. I can make an argument that globalization with all the global organizations is Democratic Socialism. Both Republicans and Dems have policies with socialist twists to them. Shoot, McCains idea for the gov't to buy the bad mortgage loans is a socialist idea.

    Please understand what socialism is before throwing it around it assuming democrats = socialists.

  11. #31
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    [QUOTE=TexJet;2809719]Obama = Socialism. Period. For those of you that have lived in the US all your lives and have never experienced anything other than a democracy, beware. You will not like what see 4 years from now. I despise socialism - I have no desire to elect a President that will gravitate towards "spreading the wealth" as Obama calls it.

    For those of you that vote for Obama - it's your constitutional right to vote for whomever you please. If you are convinced that he will "fix" the economy, improve foreign policy, single handedly resolve the long term energy crisis, get us out of Iraq with no fallout, and maintain safety in our borders - good for you! I don't see that happening.

    But at the end of the day, I will NOT vote for anyone that I believe has a liberal and socialist point of view, which Obama does. That's my right as well.

    Happy voting - I sure hope the polls are wrong, but I fear they are on the money! :([/QUOTE]

    Can you imagine the next two years fully controlled by the dems....HOLY ****, what a freakish nightmare....Pelosi, Boxer, Hillary, Osama....I shudder to think. :eek:

  12. #32
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    [QUOTE=Tyler Durden;2809674]You let yourself down. No one in their right mind should of been as confident as you were, have you been watching that team the last 2 years? Seriously Tucker... do yourself a favor this time around, do not get your hopes up...McCain will probably tighten the national polls the last week of the campaign, but right now... it's looking very bleak. All you have to do is look at the states these candidates are campaigning in. Virginia? North Carolina? Missouri? Indiana? ... Did Bill Clinton campaign in these states? McCain isn't campaigning to win this election, he's campaigning to keep it close.[/QUOTE]

    true that yo!

  13. #33
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    [QUOTE=Tucker134;2809646]It's going to happen...& it's not just wishful thinking on my part. Obama peaked too early, & McCain is just finding his groove. People have no idea who Obama is...he's an unknown commodity. There are numerous examples over the past 30 years of BS polls that favor a Democratic candidate, where the actual results turned out vastly different. McCain is a trusted, tried & true public servant. Joe the plumber's issue with Obama's tax plan brought out a response from him that he'll regret for a long, long time..."we need to spread the wealth around"- that's socialism. He almost had America fooled. The truth is he is a product of the radical left wing of the Democratic party; there is no denying that. And the fact that he's black doesn't help his cause. That's not a good thing, but it's reality. The Alfred Smith dinner earlier this week, coupled with his David Letterman appearance & response to Obama's run in with the disgruntled blue collar worker, has McCain's campaign energized again. Lastly, I have a feeling the Republicans have an October surprise to spring on the Obama campaign...& I suspect it'll involve something they've dug up on Michelle Obama. Let's hope so, because an Obama presidency, with Reid & Pelosi running Congress, would be a very scary thing.[/QUOTE]

    anything would be better then what we have witnessed the last eight years. there is no way obama does worse then the bush administration did in eight years. no way no how.

    mccain is playing the theme to the rocky movie. what does that mean? does it mean he is going to follow the last movie that came out and get his butt whooped in the end of the movie.

    what a historical campaign... thank god its almost over.

  14. #34
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    [QUOTE=MysticalJet;2809731]This socialism word is thrown around constantly and people use is as a hate word. Democracy and socialism coexist everywhere. I can make an argument that globalization with all the global organizations is Democratic Socialism. Both Republicans and Dems have policies with socialist twists to them. Shoot, McCains idea for the gov't to buy the bad mortgage loans is a socialist idea.

    Please understand what socialism is before throwing it around it assuming democrats = socialists.[/QUOTE]

    GREAT POST MYSTICAL!! They do not know the true meaning. And are blinded by the politicians. But this is nothing new. Maybe Palin can teach us the true meaning seeing how she goes to pro america states.

  15. #35
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    [QUOTE=TexJet;2809719]Obama = Socialism. Period. [B]For those of you that have lived in the US all your lives and have never experienced anything other than a democracy, beware[/B]. You will not like what see 4 years from now. I despise socialism - I have no desire to elect a President that will gravitate towards "spreading the wealth" as Obama calls it.

    For those of you that vote for Obama - it's your constitutional right to vote for whomever you please. If you are convinced that he will "fix" the economy, improve foreign policy, single handedly resolve the long term energy crisis, get us out of Iraq with no fallout, and maintain safety in our borders - good for you! I don't see that happening.

    But at the end of the day, I will NOT vote for anyone that I believe has a liberal and socialist point of view, which Obama does. That's my right as well.

    Happy voting - I sure hope the polls are wrong, but I fear they are on the money! :([/QUOTE]

    Obama is moving us from democracy to socialism? Gotcha. You realize what you are saying makes no sense whatsoever.

    I'm fairly confident that Barack Obama will not tinker with the electoral process in this country and it will remain a representative democracy. What can you point to that demonstrates otherwise?

    And if you hate socialism, as you claim, take your anger out on your boy Bush....he seems to be the #1 socialist around these here, parts.

  16. #36
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    [QUOTE=crasherino;2809743]Obama is moving us from democracy to socialism? Gotcha. You realize what you are saying makes no sense whatsoever.

    I'm fairly confident that Barack Obama will not tinker with the electoral process in this country and it will remain a representative democracy. What can you point to that demonstrates otherwise?

    And if you hate socialism, as you claim, take your anger out on your boy Bush....he seems to be the #1 socialist around these here, parts.[/QUOTE]

    Another great post! It seems they are not in the mood to debate the facts.

  17. #37
    This is a LOLThread if ever there was one. If Obama loses, I will iterally be in shock.

  18. #38
    [QUOTE=crasherino;2809743]Obama is moving us from democracy to socialism? Gotcha. You realize what you are saying makes no sense whatsoever.

    I'm fairly confident that Barack Obama will not tinker with the electoral process in this country and it will remain a representative democracy. What can you point to that demonstrates otherwise?[/QUOTE]

    Um, not to be nit-picky.....but you DO know that "Socialism" is an Economic System, not a Governmental System, right?

    We are a Psudo-Capitalist Psudo-Market Driven Economy today, with a heap'in help'in of Socialism already in place.

    Obama wants, via his policies, to shift further towards a Socialist Economic System and way in some cases from Free-Market Capitalism. How much is open for debate, of course.

    But as for our political system, I am not aware of any desire of Obama, or anyone else, to change from our current Representaive Republic (Republic, not Democracy) system we currently enjoy.

  19. #39
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    [QUOTE=Warfish;2809748]Um, not to be nit-picky.....but you DO know that "Socialism" is an Economic System, not a Governmental System, right?

    We are a Psudo-Capitalist Psudo-Market Driven Economy today, with a heap'in help'in of Socialism already in place.

    Obama wants, via his policies, to shift further towards a Socialist Economic System and way in some cases from Free-Market Capitalism. How much is open for debate, of course.

    But as for our political system, I am not aware of any desire of Obama, or anyone else, to change from our current Representaive Republic (Republic, not Democracy) system we currently enjoy.[/QUOTE]

    True Warfish, but many people equate Socialism with Communism and many political pundits use this as a scare tactict. As for the Obama policies, McCain's idea (from the 2nd debate) for the government to buy all the houses/bad mortgages is the pretty much definition of Socialism. Point is, socialism is not Repulican or Democratic and I've heard the term thrown around as a derogatory comment toward the democratic party.
    Last edited by MysticalJet; 10-18-2008 at 04:21 PM.

  20. #40
    The number of people on the lower end of the income scale who are exempt from federal income taxes has been increasing, while the proportion of the federal income-tax burden borne by higher-end taxpayers has gone up. If this is the fruit of Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush class warfare on behalf of the wealthy, the boys down at the yacht club have to be bitterly disappointed.

    A study by the Tax Foundation (of all taxes, not just federal income taxes) found that between 1991 and 2004, “the only income group whose share of total taxes increased was the highest income quintile.” According to the Congressional Budget Office, the top 40 percent of taxpayers paid 99.1 percent of federal income taxes in 2004, leaving the other 60 percent to pay .9 percent. The wealthiest 1 percent of taxpayers — the focus of so much Democratic ire — pay nearly 40 percent of federal income taxes, and about as much as the entirety of the bottom 95 percent.

    People at the lowest end have been escaping federal income taxes entirely. More than 40 million income-tax filers have no income-tax liability. President Bush’s tax cuts increased the number of people in this category by millions. And more than 20 million families pay no income taxes while getting a check from the Treasury thanks to the Earned Income Tax Credit, a bipartisan policy that President Bill Clinton made one of his causes.

    Our tax system is hugely redistributive. When all federal, state, and local taxes and spending are taken into account, the lowest 20 percent of households got $8.21 in spending for every dollar of taxes paid in 2004, while the top 40 percent paid more in taxes than they received in spending, according to the Tax Foundation. Overall, more than a trillion dollars was extracted by the U.S. government and handed out further down the income scale.

    Thus, in terms of "spreading the wealth around"....it's already been happening

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