The plan is to update the playoff race every week. I believe every scenario is accurate, but just send me a note if there are any corrections or additions.
The Jets have 5 ways that they can finish the season and still win the division after the poor showing in San Francisco. The most important game the Jets have left on the schedule is the game in week 17 against the Miami Dolphins. There is only one bizarre scenario where they can lose to the Dolphins and still win the division so that is going to be a must win. The Bills game this week is as close to a must win as there can be and a loss would mean the Jets need help against the Patriots if they want to win the division at that point.
If the Jets were to lose the division could they still grab a wildcard? Possibly. The Colts are just about out of reach. One more AFC win clinches all the tiebreakers for the Colts, so realistically they would need to finish the year 0-3 for the Jets to jump them. Baltimore is the realistic target for the Jets as long as the Jets beat Miami. If the Jets beat Miami the Ravens and Jets would tie in common games and the next tiebreaker would be strength of victory which should favor the Jets since the Ravens do not have many big wins on the resume this season. If the Jets defeat Buffalo and Miami, they will need Baltimore to lose two game of their remaining games. If they lose to Jacksonville and Pittsburgh the Jets would eliminate them based on AFC record. If they lose to Dallas and Pittsburgh they likely eliminate them based on SOV. If they lose to Dallas and Jacksonville it probably gets trickier since the Steeler win helps them immensely in SOV. While there should be a 9-7 wildcard scenario it is very unlikely and not even worth considering right now.
Here are the divisional tiebreakers:
1. Jets go 3-0 to finish 11-5
Clinch the division
2. Jets go 2-1, sweeping Miami and Buffalo to finish 10-6:
Clinch division if New England loses to either Oakland, Arizona or Buffalo.
3. Jets go 2-1, beating Buffalo and losing to Miami, to finish 10-6:
Clinch division if:
Miami loses to San Francisco and Kansas City AND either New England loses to Buffalo or New England loses to both Oakland and Arizona
4. Jets go 2-1, beating Miami and losing to Buffalo, to finish 10-6:
Clinch division if:
New England loses to Buffalo OR
New England loses to Oakland and Arizona OR
New England loses to either Oakland or Arizona AND Miami beats San Francisco and Kansas City.
5. Jets go 1-2, beating Miami, to finish 9-7:
Clinch division if: Miami loses to either San Francisco or Kansas City AND New England loses to two of the following teams: Oakland, Arizona, and Buffalo OR
Miami loses to San Francisco or Kansas City AND New England loses to Oakland, Arizona, and Buffalo
Results the Jets want in week 15:
Pittsburgh over Baltimore
Detroit over Indianapolis
San Francisco over Miami
Oakland over New England
Carolina over Denver
Watching the game yesterday, and reading Coles comments on the Niner CB's, am given to the hope that the Nniners will continue smacking around the AFC East. Chad's no dummy; but if he doesn't heed the lessons learned by the Jets, the Dolphins could lose badly.
Anyone want to give odds on the Jets dropping all three, and finishing 8-8?
Even I'm not THAT pessimistic.....I see us dropping two, Seattle definitely (the west syndrome strikes again) and either Buffalo or Miami, probably Miami, as that would be the most painful way to have things play out, losing in the final week, to Chad, to miss the playoffs....and probably to hear in the days after how Mangini is getting a 10 year extention for his turnaround.