Here's a too-simple statement re NFL drafting:
IF you have a good GM, odds are in your favor that you will take a better player in Round #1 than Round #4.
Of course their are exceptions, but ODDS are that the better players go first. Its just that simple.
I know some of you love to argue about everything & thats ok.
But the sentence that I just wrote (above) is the back-bone of the NFL Draft structure for the last 40 years...dont lose track of the "fundamentals" in this game.
Last edited by Baddniss; 03-07-2010 at 04:10 PM.
I dont have proven empiricle evidence on this that I can show you, but I ABSOLUTELY believe there are, in fact, more first round picks in the HOF than any other round. The NFL draft is 100% based on this concept & has been so for 40 years.
I simply cannot understand how you guys are challenging this basic concept, and very foundation of the league...
Last edited by Baddniss; 03-07-2010 at 04:08 PM.
Its not perfect. Of course. No one says it is. But on average, I believe there are (historically) MUCH more good players who were drafted in Round 1 than in Round 2. etc.
I really believe this to be true.
The term "bust" is a funny one because a first rounder with a big contract has huge expectations dumped on him.
For example (with us)...Bryan Thomas may be referred to by some as a "bust" because he was drafted in Rd #1. But if he (that same guy) were drafted in Rd #2 that year, everyone might look at him today as a "good" pick. The word "bust" might never have been associated with his name.
What control did HE have over the round selection?
Yet that totally effects the way most people talk about him and his play.
I understand that point.
My comment to that (waiting for a later round to fill our most important "safety" hole) is that because you DO get what you pay for, dont complain later that you got a "Kerry Rhodes-quality player" instead of a "Darrel Revis-quality player". Odds are, that is what waiting will do to you.
That is my entire point.
Odds are this is exactly what will happen.
I personally regard this Safety position as our biggest hole.
Others may say DL, but we do have decent subs at DL.
At safety, neither E.Smith or Ihedigbo are even close to "starter" quality.
To help you understand this better, this may really be a thread (deep down) that is closely linked to a whole different discussion...the UTTER STUPIDITY of drafting using the BPA concept.
Unless you have a Championship caliber team AND have no glaring holes to fill, BPA is perhaps the silliest, most outdated concept that is still talked about in pro-football.
Thank God that Tanny is the UBER anti-BPA GM of the league.
BPA is mostly talked about by idiot sports-writers and mid-level fans who really dont understand today's game.
You MUST draft to fill your biggest holes, especially at the "skill positions".
Again, (and C-Mart, here is the part you probably wont like), you must prioritize those needs and use your draft picks in that order.
If QB is your biggest need, you must go after that QB EARLY in the draft. You cant wait. In most years, there is such a large drop-off (in my opinion) after Round #3, that if you havent filled your 3 biggest holes by the end of Round #3, you aint gonna fill them.
People have said this year is a "deep" draft at certain positions (like DL) so that may stretch things 1 extra round at certain positions, but again, I am talking "on average" here.
Watch how many knuckleheads here at JI make reference to BPA over the next month...
Last edited by Baddniss; 03-08-2010 at 10:30 AM.
If you have the trade ammo and the will like Tannenbaum has had then it is easier to meld the best player you can get with need. Especially if you have tons of glaring holes to fill.
The draft strictly for need is just as flawed as the BPA philosophy, especially if you don't have the ammo to trade up. As you get better it gets more difficult to trade up and get the best players that also fill holes.
If the top 3 safeties are gone by pick 29 it is more in our interest to draft a mid to late 2nd round safety prospect or is it better to draft the play making olb or WR that has fallen to us?
When your team sucks and you have a lot of holes and when you are already not drafting late then it is much easier to make those trade ups. The Jets won't be trading up to get Berry or even Earl thomas this year. Too expensive, not enough picks.
(No BPA, no Reggie Wayne for Indy.)
Oh, also your theory re QB's? That is why some QB's fail badly ala David Carr, drafting the QB 1st and not building the team 1st. One could argue that the Jets biggest need has been QB for several years. They smartly built up other areas 1st though.
Last edited by Beerfish; 03-08-2010 at 10:45 AM.
Fortunately for us, Tanny (by his actions) greatly disagrees with you.
He is a more ardent practioner of ANTI-BPA than any GM I have seen in recent years. Again, thank God for that.
In last years draft, for example, Favre was gone, and Jets FO made a decision that Kellen Clemmins was not really "starter quality", and that QB was our biggest hole to fill.
Right away in Rd #1, they traded up and filled that specific hole asap.
No way ANYONE could look at Mark Sanchez then (junior year QB, one year of starting, etc) as the BPA remaining in Round 1. No way. Not a chance. Not even close.
Then look at this year at the start of FA period. Lito is gone over a combo of bad play & a huge upcoming roster bonus. Strickland is frail & injury prone. #2 CB is CLEARLY our weakest link.
What does Tanny do?
Within 1 hour of the start of FA, he goes out and gets Cromartie to fill our big hole ASAP.
With all of the FA's on the market , and all of Cromarties baggage, he is grabbed to fill a specific need. No way he is BPA.
These occurances are NOT coincidences. That fact that they happen ASAP is because they are pre-planned. Tanny has a very focused M.O. on acquiring players specifically to fill our biggest holes.
It aint BPA, thats for sure.
Last edited by Baddniss; 03-08-2010 at 11:04 AM.
Also you could easily argue that WR and CB were bigger needs than RB for us last year. We had a 1300 yard 15 td runningback coming back and Leon Washington our game brteaker and yet we drafted Shonn Greene.
Also the reason a team fills holes via trade and or FA is so that at draft time you are not forced into taking positions of need with players that don't have the value.
It's easy to point to the success of the Jets because a) we have had to rebuild the team from scratch and have had huge needs and b) we were drafting high enough to fill needs with good players, and be able to make trade up moves.
So to ensure getting playmakers the organization identified he gambled and traded up to draft them (Revis, Harris, Keller, Sanchez, Greene).
IMO the Jets now have a solid, young core of talented players and playmakers and are no longer in need of major moves to trade up for highly rated players.
What they need out of this draft are solid starters (DE, S) or specific specialists (edge rusher, slot WR/KR, 3rd CB/Nickel) and young backup guys that can develop in a year or two to challenge for starting jobs (OL, RB,
FB-unless TRich retires).
So I don't see Tannebaum trading up to grab a player in the 1st to target a position...He may do that in later rounds when it won't cost as much. But if anything I see him trading down to acquire additional pick(s) to use in maneuvering throughout the 2nd, 3rd, 4th rounds...
I don't think it was all that. I highly doubt he lost his ability to play football. I think it was more that they didn't like his attitude, they didn't HAVE to deal with it, and they got some value for him.Kerry Rhodes (round #4) was a flash-in-the-pan that apparently WASNT "the real thing" in the eyes of knowledge-able football guys like Rex & Tanny.
Tanny Blew it. He should have sent a 3rd round pick along with Rhodes and gotten Boldin. Now the Ravens have Boldin and we have to play them.