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Thread: Anyone else starting to think Jared Odrick is the safe play at 29?

  1. #21
    [QUOTE=Untouchable;3519728]Exactly[/QUOTE]

    Some fun arguments....

    Sanchez and 50 million in the top 5 was dumb because of Brady, Unitas, Montana, Favre, and so on.

    Keller in the first round was dumb because of Shannon Sharpe.

    Wilfork in the first round was dumb because of Jason Ferguson.

    Andre Johnson in the top 3 was dumb because he's a WR (I'm lazy).

    Sean Taylor was a dumb pick because Adrian Wilson went in the 3rd.

    Oghobaase 2010.

  2. #22
    [QUOTE=bitonti;3519673]no... Im using Devito and Marques Douglas as examples that Rex doesn't need 1st rounders to find talent on his defensive line. and I legitimately think Pito is a player.[/QUOTE]

    Right, exactly. Unless you are talking a talent like Ngata, what is the purpose of drafting a

    player like Odrick when RR is capable of doing what he did last year on the line with UDFAs and street FAs

    ?

    We had the #1 defense with Jenkins out, pouha in, with devito, douglas, ellis, etc. Tools in the shed need to replace depreciating ones, but it seems like the "safe pick" label is really saying "nothing special".

  3. #23
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    [QUOTE=palmetto defender;3519741]Good analysis. DE is the biggest need for the Jets. [B]Odrick is fine. He's not Suh or McCoy but so what[/B]. But he may be gone at 29. My next choice might be Lamarr Houston even on a trade down 10 spots.
    [B]I like Devito but he is a fill in guy[/B].
    He's needed but he's not a long term starter. Pito can make the team but he should never start.[/QUOTE]

    I'm with Bit on this one and it's one of the few points I am.

    Basically every position is future need, except for S, but Tanny said yesterday there were 3 main reasons why they shipped Rhodes.

    I'm tired of 2 main talking points. Devito and Pouha are only rotational guys. We have Gholston, Thomas, and Westerman at OLB. The 2 DL, who are now in their prime, have improved every season, including last year without our best DL. These guys are not going to all of a sudden become non-factors. In contrast Gholston is never going to be productive. These players are what they put on the field, watch the tape. Gholston and Thomas will both be gone after this season. There's a future need for you. Westerman transitions more to ILB and has been used there more often. Which brings me to my next point.

    This is a Rex defense. He puts so many LB's out there sometimes it's hard to count. How many times did we see those athletes that are all standing at the line of scrimmage with only a couple men down? He floods the field with LB's and they also serve the best for ST's coverages.

  4. #24
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    [QUOTE=Darth Vader;3519754]Right, exactly. Unless you are talking a talent like Ngata, what is the purpose of drafting a

    player like Odrick when RR is capable of doing what he did last year on the line with UDFAs and street FAs

    ?

    We had the #1 defense with Jenkins out, pouha in, with devito, douglas, ellis, etc. Tools in the shed need to replace depreciating ones, but it seems like the "safe pick" label is really saying "nothing special".[/QUOTE]

    So why should we draft a safety high when Rex can take UDFA's like Leonhard and turn them into servicable players?

    This is an extremely flawed argument.

    Our situation at DE is just as up in the air as our situation at FS. Yeah, DeVito is a solid rotational player at DE, just as Eric Smith is a solid rotational player at safety. Doesn't mean that I want either of them starting.
    Last edited by Untouchable; 03-09-2010 at 10:33 AM.

  5. #25
    [QUOTE=Untouchable;3519766]So why should we draft a safety high when Rex can take UDFA's like Leonhard and turn them into servicable players?

    This is an extremely flawed argument.

    Our situation at DE is just as up in the air as our situation at FS. Yeah, DeVito is a solid rotational player at DE, just as Eric Smith is a solid rotational player at safety. Doesn't mean that I want either of them starting.[/QUOTE]

    The argument is not flawed and here's why. We have to repect the disinction between perceptions of

    1 "a safe pick/player" vs "the special talent"
    2 the different locations these categories of prospect are likely to be drafted in the draft

    So, since I have advocated Earl Thomas and suggested Ngata

    as a comparable prospect at a different position, let's use them.

    Both are special talents. (A question arises: why is odrick referred to as a safe pick and not a special player?)

    For a DL that is a special talent as a prospect, you are more likely to go in the top 5. If odrick was not justa safe pick, but a special prospect, why with his size would he be available at 29?

    He's a DL, a super premium position.

    For a player like Earl Thomas, even he shouls go in mid-late 1, but the distinction is he is a special talent at a position that is less likely to be drafted as high as other positions.

    I think that justifies the argument here.

    At 29, or at 10, you still want great players, if they can be had, not "safe" or perhaps better said, "serviceable".

  6. #26
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    [QUOTE=Darth Vader;3519781]The argument is not flawed and here's why. We have to repect the disinction between perceptions of

    1 "a safe pick/player" vs "the special talent"
    2 the different locations these categories of prospect are likely to be drafted in the draft

    So, since I have advocated Earl Thomas and suggested Ngata

    as a comparable prospect at a different position, let's use them.

    Both are special talents. (A question arises: why is odrick referred to as a safe pick and not a special player?)

    For a DL that is a special talent as a prospect, you are more likely to go in the top 5. If odrick was not justa safe pick, but a special prospect, why with his size would he be available at 29?

    He's a DL, a super premium position.

    For a player like Earl Thomas, even he shouls go in mid-late 1, but the distinction is he is a special talent at a position that is less likely to be drafted as high as other positions.

    I think that justifies the argument here.

    At 29, or at 10, you still want great players, if they can be had, not "safe" or perhaps better said, "serviceable".[/QUOTE]


    If Earl Thomas is there at #29, then by all means, take him. It's a HUGE longshot though.

    As for 3-4 DL prospects, the Ngata and Seymour prospects of the world are extremely rare. And when those guys do come around, they very rarely make it out of the Top 10.

    Odrick isn't a special, once in a decade player, but he's a rock solid prospect who does everything well and could develop into a Ty Warren/Luis Castillo type of player down the road. I'd say the same for Lamarr Houston.

    Also, I wouldn't say just because a prospect is considered "safe" that he'll never be a great player. D'Brickashaw Ferguson was considered by many to be the safest pick of the '06 draft. Doesn't mean that he hasn't developed into a stud LT.

  7. #27
    [QUOTE=Untouchable;3519681]Really? I could also say that Rex doesn't need 1st rounders in his secondary. Guys like Leonhard, Landry, etc never sniffed the 1st round. But that doesn't mean that I would object to drafting an Earl Thomas if he's there.
    [/QUOTE]


    actually that's exactly what it means... he won't object but he wants hungry guys not first rounders... another example westerman or gholston? Rex loves the undrafted guys on his defense.

    odrick and houston neither are stout at point of attack... both are better moving and shooting gaps... it's better to let Pito or Devito absorb the blocks and let the Lbs make the plays... the DL doesn't produce a whole lot in this defense, essentially using a first rounder on a DL who isn't gonna get stats is a recipe for disaster with the fans.

  8. #28
    [QUOTE=Untouchable;3519787]If Earl Thomas is there at #29, then by all means, take him. It's a HUGE longshot though.

    As for 3-4 DL prospects, the Ngata and Seymour prospects of the world are extremely rare. And when those guys do come around, they very rarely make it out of the Top 10.

    Odrick isn't a special, once in a decade player, but he's a rock solid prospect who does everything well and could develop into a Ty Warren/Luis Castillo type of player down the road. I'd say the same for Lamarr Houston.

    Also, I wouldn't say just because a prospect is considered "safe" that he'll never be a great player. D'Brickashaw Ferguson was considered by many to be the safest pick of the '06 draft. Doesn't mean that he hasn't developed into a stud LT.[/QUOTE]
    Brick is a great example. We had the #4 pick in the draft that year, a mine field compared to #29.

    The thing is with Brick though, that we needed a LT, perhaps the cornerstone laid of a team.

    And brick, while it was acknowedged that he would not be the total package, it was also acknowedged that he could grow into a shut down pass blocker.

    We have seen his growing pains but he has grown into his service. He's a fantastic LT. More than serviceable, but that is what we expected.

    He was a prospect that had "special talents", propensity to become that type of player in the pass game.

    But than again, what else are you looking for in a LT? It almost doesn't get better than safe. Lts aren't flashy players.they don't have stats associated like CBs and DEs do.

    And you hardly find even serviceable LTs throughout the draft.

  9. #29
    [QUOTE=bitonti;3519797]actually that's exactly what it means... he won't object but he wants hungry guys not first rounders... another example westerman or gholston? Rex loves the undrafted guys on his defense.

    odrick and houston neither are stout at point of attack... both are better moving and shooting gaps... it's better to let Pito or Devito absorb the blocks and let the Lbs make the plays... the DL doesn't produce a whole lot in this defense, essentially using a first rounder on a DL who isn't gonna get stats is a recipe for disaster with the fans.[/QUOTE]

    I highly doubt any coach wants FA or low picks because they are hungrier. A coach may think he can coach up FA's and such but there is no rule that suggests that a high pick is not going to be hungry.

    I think Devito is not a stop gap measure anymore. The guy proved to me he has moved into the solid starter realm. In the end a reasonably motivated high end talent will trump a FA or low try hard pick with less skills.

    Then we have the most frustrating of all types, the Gholston, undeniable physical talent but for whatever reason he gets the absolute minimum out of it.
    Last edited by Beerfish; 03-09-2010 at 12:12 PM.

  10. #30
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    [QUOTE=bitonti;3519797]

    [B]odrick and houston neither are stout at point of attack... both are better moving and shooting gaps... it's better to let Pito or Devito absorb the blocks and let the Lbs make the plays... the DL doesn't produce a whole lot in this defense, essentially using a first rounder on a DL who isn't gonna get stats is a recipe for disaster with the fans.[/B][/QUOTE]

    I think Houston is a better player than Odrick and certainly could fit our defense.

    Lamarr Houston reminds me a lot of Shaun Ellis. He's quick for a big guy, and strong. 4.8 40 and 30 bench reps, 33.5 vert jump and 9'06 broad jump at 6'3 300.

    For a reference, Ndamukong Suh ran a 4.98 40 with 32 bench reps, 35.5 vert jump and a 8'09 broad jump.

    Houston had 57 tackles (38 solo), 7 sacks and 15 TFL this past year. In the national championship, he led Texas in tackles, had 2 TFL and 1 sack.

    Legit player, maybe not a [I]great[/I] value at 29, but you can't argue with the player.

  11. #31
    [QUOTE=SafetyBlitz;3519830]
    Legit player, maybe not a [I]great[/I] value at 29, but you can't argue with the player.[/QUOTE]

    my beef with this pick is it's not a fit for a 3-4 to draft a slanty gap shooter in round 1 and ask him to occupy blockers. I have the same problem with Odrick, Price and Houston. they all "could" play the 3-4 but it's not their strength. all of these guys are from 4-3 programs and play the 4-3 well. that coupled with the emergence of Devito, it's just not a need. Look at the Jets DL: Ellis and Jenks are the vets, Pouha and Devito are starter quality and signed long term... and they even have interesting youth in Pito, Kroul and Steinkuhler. They have guys...

    compare that to the WR position where they have Cotch, BE for 1 year and bunch of question marks. Or the RB position where they have Greene and potentially no Leon or TJ. Offense needs the help, the defense will be fine without another first rounder. if the do go Defense round 1 i'd be surprised. the Passing offense was 31st in the league last year, somehow that has to get better.

  12. #32
    [QUOTE=bitonti;3519845]my beef with this pick is it's not a fit for a 3-4 to draft a slanty gap shooter in round 1 and ask him to occupy blockers. I have the same problem with Odrick, Price and Houston. they all "could" play the 3-4 but it's not their strength. all of these guys are from 4-3 programs and play the 4-3 well. that coupled with the emergence of Devito, it's just not a need. Look at the Jets DL: Ellis and Jenks are the vets, Pouha and Devito are starter quality and signed long term... and they even have interesting youth in Pito, Kroul and Steinkuhler. They have guys...

    compare that to the WR position where they have Cotch, BE for 1 year and bunch of question marks. Or the RB position where they have Greene and potentially no Leon or TJ. Offense needs the help, the defense will be fine without another first rounder. if the do go Defense round 1 i'd be surprised. the Passing offense was 31st in the league last year, somehow that has to get better.[/QUOTE]

    The more I have been thinking about it the last few days the more think the Jets could very well go WR in the 1st round. As usual with the codicil that it depends on if someone terrific in another position slips to them.

  13. #33
    [QUOTE=bitonti;3519797]actually that's exactly what it means... he won't object but he wants hungry guys not first rounders... another example westerman or gholston? Rex loves the undrafted guys on his defense.

    odrick and houston neither are stout at point of attack... both are better moving and shooting gaps... it's better to let Pito or Devito absorb the blocks and let the Lbs make the plays... the DL doesn't produce a whole lot in this defense, essentially using a first rounder on a DL who isn't gonna get stats is a recipe for disaster with the fans.[/QUOTE]

    Lets check out the Ravens D while Rex was there...

    Chris McCallister was a top 10 pick.

    Ray Lewis and Ed Reed were fallers who fell to the Ravens....in the first round.

    Ngata? First.

    Suggs? There we go again...

    Trevor Pryce wasn't drafted by the Ravens...but just for fun, a first round pick.

    Sam Adams? First. (Also a FA signing)

    Samari Rolle? 2nd.

    I can keep going, but I'm hoping you're getting my point. Rex builds his D around stars...not role players and UDFAs. That's how it should be done, because you get better players early in the draft.

    Rex's D doesn't care where the numbers come from, because the numbers will come. When Pryce was signed to play DE he opened his Ravens career with a 13 sack season.

    Rex will take a good defensive player wherever he can get one if he wants one. Like you and I say, Odrick just isn't that kind of DL.

    You want a DL prospect Rex would like it's Terrence Cody...I love this guy as a fit for us but I don't see it happening, sadly.

    Also, Rex didn't say he wants to play Westerman more...:yes: He wants the physical freak from the first round to play more....possibly because the HC of the Jets wasn't able to set his career in stone as quickly as the fans could from his 4 starts. He probably wishes he had eyes as sharp as ours when deciphering players.
    Last edited by SenorGato; 03-09-2010 at 12:18 PM.

  14. #34
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    [QUOTE=bitonti;3519845]my beef with this pick is it's not a fit for a 3-4 to draft a slanty gap shooter in round 1 and ask him to occupy blockers. I have the same problem with Odrick, Price and Houston. they all "could" play the 3-4 but it's not their strength. all of these guys are from 4-3 programs and play the 4-3 well. that coupled with the emergence of Devito, it's just not a need. Look at the Jets DL: Ellis and Jenks are the vets, Pouha and Devito are starter quality and signed long term... and they even have interesting youth in Pito, Kroul and Steinkuhler. They have guys... [/QUOTE]

    First off, I totally agree about Price. I think he's a 4-3 DT and nothing else. Odrick? I just don't trust Penn State d-lineman nor do I think this kid was overly productive, though I do think he. theoretically, should be able to play the 3-4. I just don't want him on my team.

    Houston though, I disagree with you on. I know he can be labeled as a penetrator, but we're not in that classic Parcells/Belichick 3-4 defense. This is Rex's D.

    The way I see it, if Shaun Ellis can play in this, than Houston can.

    And he's probably got the best motor in the draft outside of Suh and Brandon Graham.

    [QUOTE=bitonti;3519845]
    compare that to the WR position where they have Cotch, BE for 1 year and bunch of question marks. Or the RB position where they have Greene and potentially no Leon or TJ. Offense needs the help, the defense will be fine without another first rounder. if the do go Defense round 1 i'd be surprised. the Passing offense was 31st in the league last year, somehow that has to get better.[/QUOTE]

    Agreed WR is thin right now, but I think that's a later round pick. We're a running team and we've got our top 3 receiving options in Cotchery/Keller/Edwards.

    As for RB though... I agree with you. We need help there. Leon is not a sure thing, and even if he's healthy, we still need a guy who can spell Greene with a physical style of running.

    You know I like Toby Gerhart in the second for that...

  15. #35
    [QUOTE=SafetyBlitz;3519879]
    Houston though, I disagree with you on. I know he can be labeled as a penetrator, but we're not in that classic Parcells/Belichick 3-4 defense. This is Rex's D.

    The way I see it, if Shaun Ellis can play in this, than Houston can.
    [/QUOTE]

    i dont get these comments. Ellis played in a 3-4 when Parcells was the coach. If this isn't a 3-4 under rex why do they need a nose tackle like Pouha or Jenkins? Why do they need Scott and Harris? in the end this is still a 3-4 and Houston would have to learn the 3-4. His tendencies to shoot the gap and try to make the play would have to be unlearned. It seems like a waste to use a high pick on a player asked to absorb blocks.... especially when they have 4 or 5 guys on the roster right now how can do it already. Would Lamarr Houston start over Mike Devito? I dont think he would. No offense to Houston I just think people are underrating the current DL on the roster.

  16. #36
    [QUOTE=bitonti;3519845] the Passing offense was 31st in the league last year, somehow that has to get better.[/QUOTE]

    That was more a function of a rookie QB, a scaled down playbook, a #1 WR acquired mid season and a #2 traded, and a run-heavy philosophy.

    The passing game will get better naturally with time.

  17. #37
    [QUOTE=Beerfish;3519872]The more I have been thinking about it the last few days the more think the Jets could very well go WR in the 1st round. As usual with the codicil that it depends on if someone terrific in another position slips to them.[/QUOTE]

    Anything is possible but LOGICALLY, why would the Jets draft a WR #1. One of the three "good" WRs will be on the bench 35-40% of the time because the Jets will be using a 2 back or 2 TE set a lot. This is not going to be Indy or NE with a wide open gunslinger attack.
    Pick up that #3 WR late second. Lots of value there. Tate is not the next Jerry Rice. He may not even be the next Chrebet (or Coles for that matter).

  18. #38
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    [QUOTE=palmetto defender;3519948]Anything is possible but LOGICALLY, why would the Jets draft a WR #1. One of the three "good" WRs will be on the bench 35-40% of the time because the Jets will be using a 2 back or 2 TE set a lot. This is not going to be Indy or NE with a wide open gunslinger attack.
    Pick up that #3 WR late second. Lots of value there. Tate is not the next Jerry Rice. He may not even be the next Chrebet (or Coles for that matter).[/QUOTE]

    What position wouldn't spend this year on the bench 35-40% of the time?

    CB2 - solved.
    DE - We have a nice rotation that any rookie would struggle to crack
    OLB - Pace, Thomas, Gholston, Westerman
    RB - Greene, Leon
    ILB - Bart and Harris
    OL - 5 very good starters

    Safety is the only position that a rookie would see time at, and I believe that position will be filled before the draft. Could also use another TE.

    If a WR happens to be the top player remaining on their board at 29, I hope that's the pick. Same goes with a CB or a ILB or a DE. Just take the best player because the depth chart looks pretty good at the moment.

  19. #39
    [QUOTE=palmetto defender;3519948]Anything is possible but LOGICALLY, why would the Jets draft a WR #1. One of the three "good" WRs will be on the bench 35-40% of the time because the Jets will be using a 2 back or 2 TE set a lot. This is not going to be Indy or NE with a wide open gunslinger attack.
    Pick up that #3 WR late second. Lots of value there. Tate is not the next Jerry Rice. He may not even be the next Chrebet (or Coles for that matter).[/QUOTE]

    Because:

    - The coaches wanted to have a more balanced attack next year.
    - Braylon Edwards is on the last year of his deal and is a bit of a ?
    - After our top guys we have Clowney.
    - The Jets actively pursued Percy Harvin last year at the draft.
    - The Jets saw 1st hand last year what the 3rd or 4th best WR can do if the other team does not have a CB that can match up.
    - I never mentioned Tate specifically.

    In the end it all depends on who is on the board at the time of the pick but WR is as much of a need position as quite a few others. (Safety is of course a true need at the moment.)

  20. #40
    [QUOTE=Darth Vader;3519937]That was more a function of a rookie QB, a scaled down playbook, a #1 WR acquired mid season and a #2 traded, and a run-heavy philosophy.

    The passing game will get better naturally with time.[/QUOTE]

    that's a nice story and all but the Jets dont have enough ammo... look at the Colts, they had Wayne, Garcon, Collie and Gonzo who was hurt; 2 first rounders and 2 other good targets. The Saints had Colston, Moore, Meachem and Henderson; a 1st, a 2nd, and 2 other very good targets. and that's not including TE like Shockey, thomas, Clark etc or RB like Addai, Bush, Brown etc.

    the Jets have 2 targets: Cotch and BE. And BE is only here for 2010. It's not enough. Cant run a passing offense with 2 wide receivers. Yes Sanchez hopefully gets better but he needs places to throw the ball.

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