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Thread: idle thoughts - be careful what you wish for....

  1. #1
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    idle thoughts - be careful what you wish for....

    I post this to offer an alternative....and not so rosy.... picture of the acquisitions that that Jets have made thus far in this off season. Much has been said, and by and large the Jets FO has been praised for their aggressive actions to improve a team that was one game away from the superbowl.

    Let me state up front that I agree that Jet fans have every right to be thrilled with last year's team. They have every right to be optimistic, or even wildly optimistic about the upcoming year. The Jets SHOULD BE considered the frontrunner in the AFCE coming into the 2010 season.

    That being said, lets look at the 3 most significant acquisitions and losses that the Jets have made this off season....SO FAR (because I believe that what rosters look like today, and what they will look like in late Aug, can change dramatically)

    1. Antonio Cromartie - On the surface this looks like a huge upgrade. Who wouldn't love to have one of the rarest commodities in the NFL, a tall CB with big play skills. However what Jet fans have NOT considered is the lack of PRODUCTION that comes with that pretty package.

    Even in his one "productive" year, a closer examination finds that 8 of the 10 picks he made came against 4 QBs who were never starters again or are now out of the league. And in every year since that time his game has regressed to the point where last season the 2 most telling stat he had were his 30 tackles and 10 passes defended.

    Like I said, a tall athletically talented CB is one of the rarest commodities in the NFL, why then would SD give up such a gem, especially to the team that knocked it out of the playoffs last season.

    Does the phrase looks like Tarzan, plays like Jane sound familiar. It was a phrase often used unfairly by disgruntled Pats fans to describe Ben Watson, who in reality was a decent all round TE, just not a great one. He also had the misfortune to be the 32nd pick his year, and thus labelled a first rounder. Had be been the 33nd pick, and a "2nd rounder" expectations would have been lower (go figure). But the point is that Watson had all the physical tools you could ask for in a TE, speed, size, and willingness, yet for some reason, he couldn't put it together to get to the "next' level. (plus the Pats offense since 2007, doesn't seem to value the TE as a receiver like some)

    But "expectations" is what this post is all about. Its also about the gap between "image and reality", and physical skill vs football production. The facts are that Cromartie IS NOT the potential shut down CB that "some" Jet fans are predicting. He IS NOT going to suddenly make the Jet secondary invincible, and IMHO there even the question if he is even going to be an upgrade on the late and UNlamented Lito Shepard.who missed several games to injury and STILL had very similar stats. (28 tackles and 9 passes defended)

    2. Brodney Pool - I don't know much about Poole, except for the poster who used some site's stats that claimed that he was the 6th best S in the league. I have to admit that this was pretty impressive, until I noticed that the SECOND best S in the league (at least according to this site) was the late and equally unlamented Kerry Rhodes. :rolleyes:

    So how is this an upgrade????? I don't think you can have it both ways. Either Poole is the 6th best S in the league and the Jets released the 2nd best, or that site's ratings are worthless. And the only way to rationalize it as an upgrade is to SPECULATE that in a different defensive system, Poole will somehow elevate his game beyond what Phodes gave you.

    In reality it was just a mid level pick up of an NFL quality player who was deemed expendable by his former team. You filled position of need with a body, but it can hardly be called an upgrade

    3. LT - Congrats, you just picked up a future HOFer, and you will have the opportunity to see (though very rarely) why he will be inducted in Canton Ohio. Consider your experience similar to that of Cardinal fans who saw the rare examples of brilliance that Emmit Smith flashed in his 2 years of relative unproductive play with the Birds before he finally gave it up.

    The stats, the history, and what you can see with your own eyes, tell you that LT is a FORMERLY great RB, but someone who just has nothing left. He is not going to surplant Green as your main running back, he will merely take away snaps from him AND Leon Washington (IF he remains and IF he is healthy). Two RBs who are far more dangerous than LT.

    In fact when you look at the Jets RB situation, I would find it far from comforting. You are all counting on Green to be your main running threat, yet wasn't he hurt THREE different times during the course of his rookie season, and wasn't his injury history one of the reason's he slipped in the draft. That can hardly be comforting despite his obvious running talents.

    And when you add the fact that your 2 back ups are the washed up LT and the damaged Leon. That's HARDLY a good situation for a team is a run first NFL offense. And an impossible situation, especially given that your team was 2-8 in games where your QB was forced to throw the ball over 22 times.

    When you respond, please respond to the issues and questions presented. Forget my username and DON'T compare it to the Pats situation. That is NOT what this post is about. Its about the JETS, and THEIR acquisitions and current situation. I'm looking for reasonable responses for the questions I raised about the players the Jets have picked up since FA began. Any comparisons about what the Pats have done vs what the Jets have done should be the subject of separate thread.

    OK now that that is settled......fire away. ;)

  2. #2
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    You acknowledge that maybe the scheme would elevate Brodney's game but not Cromarties?

    You do know the Chargers were basically unable to pressure opposing QB's and thus switched to zone almost exclusively the last two seasons, no?

  3. #3
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    You obviously are looking at all these moves in a negative light. Someone else could put a positive spin on this with arguments going the other way. You, being a fan of another team in the same division, are choosing to cast a negative light on these moves. Fair enough.

    I could do the same about the Patriots moves. But that would be an even LONGER post than yours. Why would I spend the time justifying the Jets moves to someone that wants to see them fail? Not going to do it. You should look at your team a little closer.

    At least the argument can be made that the Jets are improving their roster. The Patriots roster is doing nothing but becoming weaker. I can see why you are more worried about the Jets moves. It must get tiring watching the NFL network crying huddled up in the fetal position while all these other teams make moves.

    Don't worry big guy, it will be all right. :yes:

  4. #4
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    sorry, ken, don't have time to wade through this

    I'm sure Mike Reiss or whoever wrote it is right on target, though

  5. #5
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    Don't be jelous.

  6. #6
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    Cromartie can press cover. Sheppard couldn't.

    Pool makes aggressive plays on the ball. Rhodes couldn't.

    Tomlinson can catch 50 balls. Jones couldn't.

    Good enough? Or should I break out the crayons to draw you a diagram?

  7. #7
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    Appreciate the thought out, if obviously biased, OP.

    But my answer will still be brief:

    Cromartie is unquestionably a > Shephard/Strickland

    Poole is unquestionably a < Rhodes

    LT is (for our system at #2/3 RB) a probably small > TJ

  8. #8
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    [QUOTE=dbatesman;3528263]Cromartie can press cover. Sheppard couldn't.

    Pool makes aggressive plays on the ball. Rhodes couldn't.

    Tomlinson can catch 50 balls. Jones couldn't.

    [B]Good enough? Or should I break out the crayons to draw you a diagram?[/B][/QUOTE]

    Definitely lol worthy

  9. #9
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    1. Running back situation....last year it was TJ + Shonn. This year, we are taking away TJ and replacing him with LDT and LW. How can that possibly be a negative?

    2. You use the cliche "Looks like Tarzan, Plays like Jane" and I'll throw you "He'll benefit from a change of scenery". Now, that goes for both Cro AND Kerry Rhodes. I expect both of them to benefit from their new spot, much like your boy Randy Moss did. When talented players fall into a rut with their teams for whatever reason, their productivity falls. Especially when they feel like they aren't being used to the best of their ability. To say that Cro will be the Cro of 2007 is not necessarily a given (its possible, but far from certain). To say that he will be an upgrade over Sheppard is pretty much a layup. I'm throwing away the metrics on this one....in short, Sheppard, as they say in French, was not good - at least for a substantial part of the season. There was a stretch mid-season where he showed signs of his old form, but whether it was injuries or simply mental, he was not lost out there.

    3. Brodney Pool's biggest concern is his health. Ask any Browns fan an they will tell you he was way above average, but couldn't stay on the field. If he stays on the field, there is every reason to believe that he will be an asset. If he gets hurt, we at least have some experienced depth including E. Smith, Ihedigbo and D. Lowery, who will probably get some time at safety. Is that ideal? Probably not, but what backup situation is?

    This 2010 Jets team is far from perfect (what team is?), but the holes we need to fill are a lot smaller and less significant than in years past. Biggest holes now are

    #3 WR
    Dline - especially if Douglas leaves. Personally, I don't know why they haven't made a bigger push to sign him....he was a very solid, if unspectacular performer last year.

    Nickel/Dime

    Those are real holes, but can be filled with JAGs, if need be. Overall, I'm very pleased with this offseason. Doesn't guarantee anything other than being 0-0 before week 1, but I consider myself a realistic fan, and I like what I see so far.

  10. #10
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    [QUOTE=Warfish;3528267]Appreciate the thought out, if obviously biased, OP.

    But my answer will still be brief:

    Cromartie is unquestionably a > Shephard/Strickland

    [b]Poole is unquestionably a < Rhodes[/b]

    LT is (for our system at #2/3 RB) a probably small > TJ[/QUOTE]

    We also got a couple of draft picks. Maybe you could think of the #4 as a nickel back. Which possibly evens things out a bit.

    Personally, I think the 2010 TJ will really be terrible, and I think the 2010 LT will be better than that. But that's just my opinion / guess.

  11. #11
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    First of all, don't assume the Jets will sit still with these three acquisitions, particularly Poole and LT. We'll find out pretty quickly if Cromartie was a victim of San Diego's defensive schemes and was poorly utilized. No doubt about his physical skills. Poole is a guy who gives us some breathing space to move forward from Rhodes, but is unlikely to be the long-term solution at safety. He's a decent replacement. I wouldn't say more. LT is an interesting case. As a feature back, I would agree he's done. As a utility back we have every reason to be optimistic that he will fill a useful role in a different running back system than the Jets used last year, when Jones was the workhorse. I took a look at the trend charts for YPC of about 20-25 well-known backs over the last few decades and I found something interesting. YPC don't generally drop in the later years. Carries do. An elite back with half the workload can very often still generate very good performance. I would be unhappy with the idea of LT being a feature back at this point, but I don't see that happening. The Jets did not bring him in to "replace" the TJ of last year. They brought him in to complement a different backfield with different balance points. Can't compare apples to oranges....

  12. #12
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    @OP I don't disagree with anything that you are saying but we will have to wait and see. Cromartie from a physical standpoint is everything Rex craves in a CB; now if they can turn him into the shutdown CB to play opposite of Revis than that would be great but only time will tell. I definitely agree with your assessment that the move from Rhodes to Poole was a downgrade but we still have the draft next month and there is nothing that says the Jets don't upgrade the secondary (CB & S) in the draft.

    On LT, he is not the feature back (as was TJ). I'm still not convinced that TJ wasn't insisting for an open competition for the starting RB position which may have escalated his departure (this is exactly what he did in Chicago when they wanted him to take a backseat to Benson). LT will be a backup and provides a different dimension to our offense that TJ did not (a true HB with the ability to lineup wide). Starter vs Starter TJ may have been the better option but Backup vs Backup I think LT is the better option because of his versatility.

    We still have the draft and the rest of the offseason so evaluating a roster at this point is way premature. Who knows we still may sign Strickland and Sheppard to low end deals for depth when it's all said and done (now I don't think anyone would say adding Cromartie and keeping Lito would be a downgrade).

  13. #13
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    any1 who believes pool is an upgrade over Kerry Rhodes is engaging in wishful thinking. Even if Pool was more aggressive he's 1 bad hit away from retirement.

    Cro is definately better than Lito however, that's pretty clear. LT and TJ is about a wash.

    it should also be noted the Jets get Kris Jenkins back, that's a pretty big addition to any defense. If leon can heal up... also a big addition.

  14. #14
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    ... ken, i'm curious - you never replied to me ...

    [url]http://www.jetsinsider.com/forums/showthread.php?t=210153&page=4[/url]


    [QUOTE]
    Originally Posted by patsfanken
    They also seem to have bought into the MYTH that ACromartie is a pro bowl level CB that will somehow elevate the Jets defense,

    How about these for impressive stats- for 16 games the latest Jets "Beast" managed 30 tackles, 3 picks, no forced fumbles, and a whopping 9 passes defended. Are you telling me that Lito Shepard didn't put up better stats than this?????????? .
    [/QUOTE]


    [QUOTE]
    Originally Posted by l_j_r
    ... ken, do you really not believe cromartie to be an upgrade over sheppard? ...

    ... in addition to us green-colored glasses wearing fans ... it also has seemed that most prognosticators, talking heads, ex-jocks, and so-callled experts believe this to be an upgrade for us ...

    ... the results one way or the other will certainly not be known until training camp/preseason/regular season/post-season 2010 ... but it wouldn't seem to be that lofty of a goal to show improvement at the #2 cb spot ...

    ... it would be more like upgrading otis smith than in his heyday ty law ...

    ... the venomous objection to cromartie > sheppard seems a bit misplaced ...
    [/QUOTE]










    l_j_r

  15. #15
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    [QUOTE=patsfanken;3528222]I post this to offer an alternative....and not so rosy.... picture of the acquisitions that that Jets have made thus far in this off season. Much has been said, and by and large the Jets FO has been praised for their aggressive actions to improve a team that was one game away from the superbowl.

    Let me state up front that I agree that Jet fans have every right to be thrilled with last year's team. They have every right to be optimistic, or even wildly optimistic about the upcoming year. The Jets SHOULD BE considered the frontrunner in the AFCE coming into the 2010 season.

    That being said, lets look at the 3 most significant acquisitions and losses that the Jets have made this off season....SO FAR (because I believe that what rosters look like today, and what they will look like in late Aug, can change dramatically)

    1. Antonio Cromartie - On the surface this looks like a huge upgrade. Who wouldn't love to have one of the rarest commodities in the NFL, a tall CB with big play skills. However what Jet fans have NOT considered is the lack of PRODUCTION that comes with that pretty package.

    Even in his one "productive" year, a closer examination finds that 8 of the 10 picks he made came against 4 QBs who were never starters again or are now out of the league. And in every year since that time his game has regressed to the point where last season the 2 most telling stat he had were his 30 tackles and 10 passes defended.

    Like I said, a tall athletically talented CB is one of the rarest commodities in the NFL, why then would SD give up such a gem, especially to the team that knocked it out of the playoffs last season.

    Does the phrase looks like Tarzan, plays like Jane sound familiar. It was a phrase often used unfairly by disgruntled Pats fans to describe Ben Watson, who in reality was a decent all round TE, just not a great one. He also had the misfortune to be the 32nd pick his year, and thus labelled a first rounder. Had be been the 33nd pick, and a "2nd rounder" expectations would have been lower (go figure). But the point is that Watson had all the physical tools you could ask for in a TE, speed, size, and willingness, yet for some reason, he couldn't put it together to get to the "next' level. (plus the Pats offense since 2007, doesn't seem to value the TE as a receiver like some)

    But "expectations" is what this post is all about. Its also about the gap between "image and reality", and physical skill vs football production. The facts are that Cromartie IS NOT the potential shut down CB that "some" Jet fans are predicting. He IS NOT going to suddenly make the Jet secondary invincible, and IMHO there even the question if he is even going to be an upgrade on the late and UNlamented Lito Shepard.who missed several games to injury and STILL had very similar stats. (28 tackles and 9 passes defended)

    2. Brodney Pool - I don't know much about Poole, except for the poster who used some site's stats that claimed that he was the 6th best S in the league. I have to admit that this was pretty impressive, until I noticed that the SECOND best S in the league (at least according to this site) was the late and equally unlamented Kerry Rhodes. :rolleyes:

    So how is this an upgrade????? I don't think you can have it both ways. Either Poole is the 6th best S in the league and the Jets released the 2nd best, or that site's ratings are worthless. And the only way to rationalize it as an upgrade is to SPECULATE that in a different defensive system, Poole will somehow elevate his game beyond what Phodes gave you.

    In reality it was just a mid level pick up of an NFL quality player who was deemed expendable by his former team. You filled position of need with a body, but it can hardly be called an upgrade

    3. LT - Congrats, you just picked up a future HOFer, and you will have the opportunity to see (though very rarely) why he will be inducted in Canton Ohio. Consider your experience similar to that of Cardinal fans who saw the rare examples of brilliance that Emmit Smith flashed in his 2 years of relative unproductive play with the Birds before he finally gave it up.

    The stats, the history, and what you can see with your own eyes, tell you that LT is a FORMERLY great RB, but someone who just has nothing left. He is not going to surplant Green as your main running back, he will merely take away snaps from him AND Leon Washington (IF he remains and IF he is healthy). Two RBs who are far more dangerous than LT.

    In fact when you look at the Jets RB situation, I would find it far from comforting. You are all counting on Green to be your main running threat, yet wasn't he hurt THREE different times during the course of his rookie season, and wasn't his injury history one of the reason's he slipped in the draft. That can hardly be comforting despite his obvious running talents.

    And when you add the fact that your 2 back ups are the washed up LT and the damaged Leon. That's HARDLY a good situation for a team is a run first NFL offense. And an impossible situation, especially given that your team was 2-8 in games where your QB was forced to throw the ball over 22 times.

    When you respond, please respond to the issues and questions presented. Forget my username and DON'T compare it to the Pats situation. That is NOT what this post is about. Its about the JETS, and THEIR acquisitions and current situation. I'm looking for reasonable responses for the questions I raised about the players the Jets have picked up since FA began. Any comparisons about what the Pats have done vs what the Jets have done should be the subject of separate thread.

    OK now that that is settled......fire away. ;)[/QUOTE]

    Thou protesteth too much. Now go and cleaneht the shat out of your bloomers. You know your done and we know your done. ps just mark my words, Brady will lay down like a dog this year after he get teed off on this year.

  16. #16
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    yes, if those 3 moves were to pan out in the "worst case scenario" it'd be pretty bad for the Jets.

    you can say that about pretty much every player that has ever been drafted or signed by an NFL team.



    great thread, Hansel.

  17. #17
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    [QUOTE=MDL_JET;3528252]Don't be jelous.[/QUOTE]

    Best summation right there, and wasted a lot less electrons. :cool:

  18. #18
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    funny when these very same patsie trolls commented about kerry rhodes when he was a jet he was a jag. now that he's traded he's the no. 2 safety in the league!

    oh well, nough said about fan biases.

    as for the recent players, across the board they are at least equal or upgrades for the guys they replace and the jets gained a draft pick. not so bad considering they haven't finished and they can have more latitude to draft the best available players instead of targeting a need. not a bad place to be in a deep draft.

  19. #19
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    If we get accused of wearing green colored glasses, then these Pasts* fans are accused of wearing red colored glasses when talking about the Jets.

  20. #20
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    [QUOTE=sameoldjets;3528429]funny when these very same patsie trolls commented about kerry rhodes when he was a jet he was a jag. now that he's traded he's the no. 2 safety in the league!

    oh well, nough said about fan biases.

    as for the recent players, across the board they are at least equal or upgrades for the guys they replace and the jets gained a draft pick. not so bad considering they haven't finished and they can have more latitude to draft the best available players instead of targeting a need. not a bad place to be in a deep draft.[/QUOTE]

    yeah, yeah.

    but remember when they signed Fred Taylor and Joey Galloway last year??


    and how they were the perfect veterans to take the Pats* back to the promised land? :rolleyes:

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