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Thread: How Many Top 20 Picks are there in this draft?

  1. #1
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    How Many Top 20 Picks are there in this draft?

    Yes, yes, I know. 20.

    What I really mean is, how many players would you be happy to draft with pick 20 in a different year; i.e. in a vacuum, not "is he the 20th best prospect in this draft", but "does he have the talent to justify a top 20 pick?"

    My sense is . . . a lot. Definitely more than 20.

    I'll throw out some names, including some I'd say no to, but are legit candidates. Give me your yes-no reactions to them.

    QB
    Bradford - Yes
    Claussen - Yes

    RB
    Spiller - Yes
    Mathews - Yes (not in this draft, IMO, but definitely talented enough)

    FB
    Yeah, right

    TE
    Jermaine Gresham - No (only real option)

    OT
    Bulaga - Yes
    Okung - Yes
    Williams - Yes
    Davis - Yes
    Campbell - No

    OG
    Iupati - Yes

    C
    Pouncey - No

    WR
    Bryant - Yes
    Tate - No
    Williams - No
    Thomas - No

    (Total O - 10)

    DT
    Suh - Yes
    McCoy - Yes
    D. Williams - Yes
    Odrick - No
    Price - No

    DE (including DE/OLB)
    Morgan - Yes
    Pierre-Paul - Yes
    Dunlap - Yes
    Kindle - Yes
    Graham - Yes
    Hughes - No

    OLB
    Weatherspoon - No

    ILB
    McClain - Yes

    CB
    Haden - Yes
    Wilson - Yes
    McCourty - No

    S
    Berry - Yes
    Thomas - Yes
    Mays - No

    (Total D - 13)

    That's 23 players with legit top-20 grades. Not as deep as I'd first expected, but that's still a lot of players. And if you throw in Campbell, one of the other WRs . . . you're looking at a list that's 25 deep.

    Thoughts?

  2. #2
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    No to Ryan Matthews, though late 20's works. No to Brandon Graham, surprisingly. I realize he has alot of things that work, but he just doesn't have the measurables to go top 20. You can replace him with Griffen. I'd expect Thomas to be gone by 22, which I guess counts but I won't. I think Cody is a top 20 pick, with a small chance of falling into the 20's.

    Weatherspoon has a small shot.

  3. #3
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    Well to be honest, that is extremely deep considering most years there are 10-15 top 20 talents.

    Also the argument could certainly be made for Price, Mays, and Campbell is as well. Then you're talking 28 or so and that's incredible depth...

    I'd think your list would also start to reflect the depth if you did a top 30, top 50 draft.
    Last edited by SyracuseJet; 03-21-2010 at 09:06 AM.

  4. #4
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    [QUOTE=doggin94it;3532883]Yes, yes, I know. 20.

    What I really mean is, how many players would you be happy to draft with pick 20 in a different year; i.e. in a vacuum, not "is he the 20th best prospect in this draft", but "does he have the talent to justify a top 20 pick?"

    My sense is . . . a lot. Definitely more than 20.

    I'll throw out some names, including some I'd say no to, but are legit candidates. Give me your yes-no reactions to them.

    QB
    Bradford - Yes
    Claussen - Yes

    RB
    Spiller - Yes
    Mathews - Yes (not in this draft, IMO, but definitely talented enough)

    FB
    Yeah, right

    TE
    Jermaine Gresham - No (only real option)

    OT
    Bulaga - Yes
    Okung - Yes
    Williams - Yes
    Davis - Yes
    Campbell - No

    OG
    Iupati - Yes

    C
    Pouncey - No

    WR
    Bryant - Yes
    Tate - No
    Williams - No
    Thomas - No

    (Total O - 10)

    DT
    Suh - Yes
    McCoy - Yes
    D. Williams - Yes
    Odrick - No
    Price - No

    DE (including DE/OLB)
    Morgan - Yes
    Pierre-Paul - Yes
    Dunlap - Yes
    Kindle - Yes
    Graham - Yes
    Hughes - No

    OLB
    Weatherspoon - No

    ILB
    McClain - Yes

    CB
    Haden - Yes
    Wilson - Yes
    McCourty - No

    S
    Berry - Yes
    Thomas - Yes
    Mays - No

    (Total D - 13)

    That's 23 players with legit top-20 grades. Not as deep as I'd first expected, but that's still a lot of players. And if you throw in Campbell, one of the other WRs . . . you're looking at a list that's 25 deep.

    Thoughts?[/QUOTE]

    I don't think you can do it that way because each draft is unique onto itself...I don't think Wilson is top 20 talent nor clausen....

    imo the better way is to break it down by position...there are 16 legit first round d-linemen in this draft which means there will be potential first round talent at the position available through the middle of round two....

    TE/CB/WR on the other hand have quality in numbers but they are primarily #2 CB/WR and TE's with great upside that have a ton of ability but lots of questions...

    must add how many people continue to undervalue and underrate Ricky Sapp of Clemson- guy has late first round ability in my opinion and in the opinion of others...don't know whether it is because he played on a bad knee last year or whether teams are downgrading players like him from Clemson-

  5. #5
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    I tend to think that when they refer to this draft as deep, it may not be the elite quality that is getting everyone's attention but the small difference between lets say the 20th pick at lets say the 35th. Lets say Houston takes Kyle Wilson at 20 and someone like MCCourty falls to the top of the 2nd (both very possible) is there that much difference between the pro potential on both of these players. Yes I agree that Wilson projects a little better than McCourty but now look at the contracts the #20 and #35 get.

    Economics. I'm not saying that a ton of teams are going the route of Moneyball, but is that so far out of the realm of possibilities?

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    [QUOTE=pcola;3533014]I tend to think that when they refer to this draft as deep, it may not be the elite quality that is getting everyone's attention but the small difference between lets say the 20th pick at lets say the 35th. Lets say Houston takes Kyle Wilson at 20 and someone like MCCourty falls to the top of the 2nd (both very possible) is there that much difference between the pro potential on both of these players. Yes I agree that Wilson projects a little better than McCourty but now look at the contracts the #20 and #35 get.

    Economics. I'm not saying that a ton of teams are going the route of Moneyball, but is that so far out of the realm of possibilities?[/QUOTE]

    there is though a massive drop-off after the top four, and what that does in the bottom half of the frame it pulls guys into the top 10 and 20 which would not generally be there...

  7. #7
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    [QUOTE=Come Back to NY;3533163]there is though a massive drop-off after the top four, and what that does in the bottom half of the frame it pulls guys into the top 10 and 20 which would not generally be there...[/QUOTE]


    Agreed. Makes me think that the Draft value chart is going to get shredded during this draft because teams will be willing to move down for less. Could be a great opportunity for Tanny to do his usual - target a guy that may have slipped just enough for us to move up and get without paying a premium (other than the draft slot salary).

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    [QUOTE=pcola;3533175]Agreed. Makes me think that the Draft value chart is going to get shredded during this draft because teams will be willing to move down for less. Could be a great opportunity for Tanny to do his usual - target a guy that may have slipped just enough for us to move up and get without paying a premium (other than the draft slot salary).[/QUOTE]

    the chart will mean little if you have a motivated buyer or seller...

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    [QUOTE=SenorGato;3532890]No to Brandon Graham, surprisingly. I realize he has alot of things that work, but he just doesn't have the measurables to go top 20. [/QUOTE]

    BRANDON GRAHAM'S MEASURABLES

    40 yd - 4.72
    Bench - 31

    Hm. Those look pretty good to me. But I guess he must have had a vastly more athletic player in mind in order to bump Brandon Gra-

    [QUOTE=SenorGato;3532890]You can replace him with Griffen.[/QUOTE]

    EVERSON GRIFFEN'S MEASURABLES

    40 yd - 4.66
    Bench - 32

    Hm. Those look pretty much identical.

    Well, surely he misspoke. He must have thought that perhaps Griffen's production was better than Graham's to justify that. Well surely a quick look at the stats will verif-

    BRANDON GRAHAM'S STATS

    08 - 11 GP, 46 TKL, 20 TFL, 10 SK
    09 - 12 GP, 64 TKL, 26 TFL, 10.5 SK

    EVERSON GRIFFEN'S STATS

    08 - 12 GP, 18 TKL, 6 TFL, 4.5 SK
    09 - 12 GP, 45 TKL, 9.5 TFL, 8 SK

    Hm. That's strange. Graham made Griffen look like a 4th grader.

    Well, Gato must have meant like size and weight and such when he was referring to "measurables," then.

    BRANDON GRAHAM - 6'1", 268 lbs

    EVERSON GRIFFEN - 6'3", 273 lbs

    Gosh, those look pretty much the same too.

    I damn well know it's not the all-star game tape, and it certainly can't be the intangibles either since nobody has ever rated Graham's motor as anything short of legendary.

    Gato - I know I'm biased, but if you think that Griffen is top 20 but Graham is not you're insane.

  10. #10
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    [QUOTE=Come Back to NY;3533001]I don't think you can do it that way because [B]each draft is unique onto itself[/B]...I don't think Wilson is top 20 talent nor clausen....[/quote]

    Right, which is sort of what I'm getting at here. Obviously, there are exactly 20 "top 20" guys in this draft - i.e. the best 20 prospects among this year's group - though the scouts will obviously disagree on who they are.

    I'm going more for "a guy who, in a typical draft year, you'd be happy to take at 20"

    Or, put it another way:

    The 20th pick in the last 10 drafts has been:

    2009: Alex Mack
    2008: Aqib Talib
    2007: Aaron Ross
    2006: Tamba Hali
    2005: Marcus Spears
    2004: Kenichi Udeze
    2003: George Foster
    2002: Javon Walker
    2001: Adam Archuleta
    2000: Stockar McDougle

    Now, granted, some of those guys may have been reaches. So I guess you can frame the question this way - how many prospects in this draft carry a higher grade than 7 or more of the above draftees?

    Hmmm . . . I knew you didn't like Clausen, but not a top 20 talent?

    [QUOTE]
    imo the better way is to break it down by position...there are 16 legit first round d-linemen in this draft which means there will be potential first round talent at the position available through the middle of round two....
    [/QUOTE]

    16? :eek:

    [QUOTE]
    TE/CB/WR on the other hand have quality in numbers but they are primarily
    #2 CB/WR and TE's with great upside that have a ton of ability but lots of questions...[/QUOTE]

    I can see that.

    [quote]must add how many people continue to undervalue and underrate Ricky Sapp of Clemson- guy has late first round ability in my opinion and in the opinion of others...don't know whether it is because he played on a bad knee last year or whether teams are downgrading players like him from Clemson-[/QUOTE]

    I'd probably rate Sapp as late first round as well (in my purely secondhand, amateur, useless rating system :D), which is why I didn't count him as a top 20 guy.

  11. #11
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    [QUOTE=doggin94it;3533245]Right, which is sort of what I'm getting at here. Obviously, there are exactly 20 "top 20" guys in this draft - i.e. the best 20 prospects among this year's group - though the scouts will obviously disagree on who they are.

    I'm going more for "a guy who, in a typical draft year, you'd be happy to take at 20"

    Or, put it another way:

    The 20th pick in the last 10 drafts has been:

    2009: Alex Mack
    2008: Aqib Talib
    2007: Aaron Ross
    2006: Tamba Hali
    2005: Marcus Spears
    2004: Kenichi Udeze
    2003: George Foster
    2002: Javon Walker
    2001: Adam Archuleta
    2000: Stockar McDougle

    Now, granted, some of those guys may have been reaches. So I guess you can frame the question this way - how many prospects in this draft carry a higher grade than 7 or more of the above draftees?[/QUOTE]

    Bruce Campbell- but he doesn't help the Jets...
    Pouncey is better than Mack at equal points in their career..
    Ditto for Taylor Mays vs. Archuleta....
    Tate on the fringe because of his RS ability...

    [QUOTE]
    Hmmm . . . I knew you didn't like Clausen, but not a top 20 talent?[/QUOTE]

    there are 20 players in this draft better than him- he'll likely get over drafted as he's one of the few signal callers in the draft who have starting ability...

    [QUOTE]16? :eek:[/QUOTE]

    you've got to remember a lot of the OLB's (Kindle/Hughes/Sapp) are projected as OLB's...I am also including guys like Arthur Jones and Corey Wootton who are first round talent but will be downgraded because they are on the mend from injury...

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