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Thread: Reach comments don't make sense

  1. #1
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    Reach comments don't make sense

    I am not a draft guru like many of you here, and I really enjoy all of the comments and learn alot about perspective picks. thanks to all the regular posters for that!

    There is one thing that does not make any sense to me. It kind of drives me crazy. We are picking at 29, at the very end of the first round. When a player is mentioned that is "rated" as a mid 2nd round pick, people say that we are reaching. That is senseless.

    We have the opportunity to pick a player at 29, and then again at 61. If a player is rated mid second round and we want him, guess what? We have to pick him at 29 or risk losing him at 61. There is no guarentee that we could trade down into the mid 2nd, then no guarentee that the player we want would still be there.

    In my opinion, the 29th pick FOR THE JETS would not be a REACH if we took any player that we had targeted that was rated 29 thru 60, since the Jets do not have the opportunity to select anyone else until 61.

    /rant
    Last edited by GandWFan; 04-15-2010 at 10:14 AM. Reason: spelling

  2. #2
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    All depends on your perspective. If that is the case then Ted Ginn and Heyward-Bey were not reaches.

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    Ultimatley it comes down to value. Your right a player we prize may not be availible at our next pick but its the front offices hob to maximize the draft. Whatever pick you use you want to make sure the players talent/potential matches up to that slot. If not trade down to recoup more picks in later rounds Mike t has shown that he values qualitu over quantity which is why i forsee a trade up more likely. Again the draft is far from an exact science

  4. #4
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    with the benefit of 20/20 hindsight:

    if the player pans out (ie, jeff lageman), then it was a good pick.

    if the player sux, then it was a bad pick.

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    There are actually two different things at play here - the value the *team* places on a player, and the perceived value *others* place on a player.

    If, on our draft board, Morgan Burnett is the best available player when our turn comes to pick at 29 . . . well, you can question the talent evaluation, but he wouldn't be a "reach" in that scenario - at least not internally - because he is the best player available.

    On the other hand, if you know that most other teams consider Burnett a mid-second round player, and can trade back and still get him, that would be the better option, obviously - that maximizes the value you get while selecting the player you want. But if you can't, you take the best player on your board, even if you know others have him rated significantly lower, as long as you don't believe you'll be able to pick him at your next pick (or trade up from that spot to pick him). What you absolutely do not do is toss your own player-evaluation and ranking out the window in order to have your pick match up with others' opinion of who the best available player might be - that would be a reach.

    (Note - Burnett was simply chosen as a player who seems to have a well defined 2nd round value in the draft commentator community)

  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by SantanaMoss83 View Post
    Ultimatley it comes down to value. Your right a player we prize may not be availible at our next pick but its the front offices hob to maximize the draft. Whatever pick you use you want to make sure the players talent/potential matches up to that slot. If not trade down to recoup more picks in later rounds Mike t has shown that he values qualitu over quantity which is why i forsee a trade up more likely. Again the draft is far from an exact science
    This. As a GM, you must maximize value. If we're sitting at 29 and have 6 players we like equally . . . well, see if you can move down to 34, because you'll still get one of those guys, and maximize your value.

    However, you only want to move down into an area where you're still comfortable you can get the player you want (or a comparable player). And if you can't work out such a trade, then the "value" question becomes meaningless - and you take the best available player according to your own internal evaluation.

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by augustiniak View Post
    with the benefit of 20/20 hindsight:

    if the player pans out (ie, jeff lageman), then it was a good pick.

    if the player sux, then it was a bad pick.
    That's simplistic. If we could have gotten Lageman in round 2 (and there's no way to know this for certain) then he was a bad pick in round 1 no matter how well he panned out.

  8. #8
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    for better or worse 29 is still a first round pick. its gonna happen on thursday. the 2nd round picks happen a day later.

    even though its a late first round pick, it will be treated as such by the fans and the media.

    So it might not be fair... and the difference between 29 and 33 might only be 4 players... but the 2nd round might as well be another world in the perception game.

    if they want to reach they better trade out of the round.

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    very true doggin. just goes to show you, the happiest teams are the ones that take the players they want and don't hope guys fall to them. in the end, people can 'grade' drafts as much as they like, but you have to live with the guys you pick.

    a great example was the jets draft from a few years ago. they dealt their entire haul to get revis and harris. in hindsight, it was a brilliant move. at the time, most questioned the use of the jets picks and the perceived value.

    what the jets have demonstrated, against the prevailing league sentiment, is that if you get 3 guys who you really like and who perform as you expect, that's better than drafting 10 guys and hoping most of them pan out. i'd rather go get that LT, go get that cb, the qb, the rb you love. every time you trust your scouts and hit on a pick, it's one less headache in free agency, and one less question mark in the offseason.

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by augustiniak View Post
    with the benefit of 20/20 hindsight:

    if the player pans out (ie, jeff lageman), then it was a good pick.

    if the player sux, then it was a bad pick.
    It's only 20/20 hind sight if a person has no opinion at the time. If a person either supports or pans the pick at the time then they can either crow or feel foolish about their words.

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    It can be perceived many ways.
    If the team really needs a DE and the guy you were looking at 29 was picked and the next DE is valued at let's say 40 you may take that guy if you have no other pressing needs. Reach? Maybe, but a necesssity. You can't alway s trade down plus the Jets do not need that many slots filled. They have a LOT of good people on the roster right now.
    Compare the Jets to the beginning of last season. They are set at QB, WR, TE, CB. Not last year.
    RB is fairly settled. So is safety, the OL, FB,ILB.
    DL and OLB are questions.

  12. #12
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    Thanks for the insightful answers. As usual, I got "value" from my post!

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    Quote Originally Posted by palmetto defender View Post
    So is safety
    they have 4 players, 3 of which are on 1 year deals. That's not settled.

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    Quote Originally Posted by bitonti View Post
    they have 4 players, 3 of which are on 1 year deals. That's not settled.


    It's settled for this year and that's what's most important. There is also plenty of time to tie up the guys you want to.
    THIS year is what counts. Who's leaving? Or better still if a guy leaves next season, draft a guy next year. The talent is unending, especially on defense.

  15. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by augustiniak View Post
    with the benefit of 20/20 hindsight:

    if the player pans out (ie, jeff lageman), then it was a good pick.

    if the player sux, then it was a bad pick.
    Exactly...DeMarcus Ware in '05 at 11 was a reach...not so much anymore.

  16. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by SenorGato View Post
    Exactly...DeMarcus Ware in '05 at 11 was a reach...not so much anymore.
    ditto for Dwight Freeney

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