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Thread: Football Outsiders 2010 Almanac- Jets preview

  1. #1
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    Football Outsiders 2010 Almanac- Jets preview

    Every year, Football Outsiders publishes their almanac (which I think is a great read and well worth buying) and to entice you to buy it, they release a preview chapter of a selected team. This year, fortunately, they decided to release the Jets chapter

    [url]http://www.footballoutsiders.com/files/downloads/FOA%202010%20Sample%20-%20NYJ.pdf[/url]

    A couple interesting notes

    -The Jets #1 CB matched up with the other team's #1 WR 68% of the time-the most in the league.

    -The Jets ran the ball 73 % of time on first downs

    -The Jets got 20% of their sacks from defensive backs (most in the league)

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    Great read. I'm sure there will be people who find it objectionable, but its a pretty realistic take on the Jets upcoming season.

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    Great read. I was floored by their analysis of Revis:

    [QUOTE]A player playing at Revisí level while getting a comparable usage rate at a different position in 2009 [B]would have set the NFL passing record
    by nearly 500 yards, beat out Jerry Rice for the single-season receiving record, or run for 2,000 yards while averaging a record-tying 6.4 yards per carry[/B].[/QUOTE]

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    [QUOTE=doggin94it;3637812]Great read. I was floored by their analysis of Revis:[/QUOTE]

    Yeah - that was pretty unbelievable. I didn't realize he was thrown at the 6th most in the league. Especially when you had the group of JAGS playing on the other side.

    Edit: I appreciate the teaser from FO, but now there's really no reason for me to buy it as 90% of the reason I would, would be to read about the Jets.

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    [QUOTE=crasherino;3637813]Yeah - that was pretty [B]unbelievable[/B]. I didn't realize he was thrown at the 6th most in the league. Especially when you had the group of JAGS playing on the other side.

    Edit: I appreciate the teaser from FO, but now there's really no reason for me to buy it as 90% of the reason I would, would be to read about the Jets.[/QUOTE]

    That is the right word there are too many variables to make claims like that why not add and had he been a woman he would have won Miss America and Miss Universe contests as well..:rolleyes:

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    [QUOTE=Savage69;3637816]That is the right word there are too many variables to make claims like that why not add and had he been a woman he would have won Miss America and Miss Universe contests as well..:rolleyes:[/QUOTE]


    Not a question of "if revis was a QB"; it's simply taking "how much better is Revis than the average CB" and applying that same distance above average to other positions. No variables involved, just giving you a basis for comparison

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    Nice, downloaded and on my iPad for reading.

    BZ

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    [QUOTE=doggin94it;3637837]Not a question of "if revis was a QB"; it's simply taking "how much better is Revis than the average CB" and applying that same distance above average to other positions. No variables involved, just giving you a basis for comparison[/QUOTE]

    You may have been playing Madden to long.. The Real world doesn't work like that.. If Tiger Woods was the best Golfer maybe he would make a great DB..:P

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    [QUOTE=Savage69;3637843]You may have been playing Madden to long.. The Real world doesn't work like that.. If Tiger Woods was the best Golfer maybe he would make a great DB..:P[/QUOTE]

    The writer isn't saying REVIS would make a great QB/RB/etc.

    He's simply showing what numbers at other positions would have to look like to be comparable to what Revis did at his.

    Do you disagree?

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    [QUOTE=crasherino;3637813]Yeah - that was pretty unbelievable. I didn't realize he was thrown at the 6th most in the league. Especially when you had the group of JAGS playing on the other side.

    Edit: I appreciate the teaser from FO, but now there's really no reason for me to buy it as 90% of the reason I would, would be to read about the Jets.[/QUOTE]

    I really thought Revis got thrown on so much because he always lines up against the 1, and its very hard for a QB to just abandon his top player for a game. I also think most of the wideouts did not believe the hype either and would tell their guys to feed them the ball, ala Moss and Brady playing long toss at the end of a blowout.

    What I would have liked to have seen them do was to look at some other corners that had elite seasons and how they did year after year. They did it with pass defense as a whole, but I dont believe they did it on an individual level. I know that there has almost been no year to year defensive consistency, which does not bode well for the team, but I wonder what individual level of play is like at that certain position.

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    [QUOTE=OCCH;3637846]The writer isn't saying REVIS would make a great QB/RB/etc.

    He's simply showing what numbers at other positions would have to look like to be comparable to what Revis did at his.

    Do you disagree?[/QUOTE]

    I just hate silly speculation.. If he just said Revis had a great year I would agree.. Why not take it to golf and say Revis would have won every tournament and banged Tigers wife as well..:P

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    [QUOTE=Jason423;3637847]I really thought Revis got thrown on so much because he always lines up against the 1, and its very hard for a QB to just abandon his top player for a game. I also think most of the wideouts did not believe the hype either and would tell their guys to feed them the ball, ala Moss and Brady playing long toss at the end of a blowout.
    [/QUOTE]

    The Jets also rolled coverages a lot of the time away from Revis, leaving him 1 on 1 with his the opponents #1 WR. It's almost like the Jets were daring teams to throw at Revis, and a lot of the times they had no other choice, or so they thought.

    The Cromartie pickup is going to be HUGE IMO.....Cromartie can handle most teams' 2nd WR's on an island with Revis on the number 1, and that will give Rex even more flexibility in his coverages and blitz packages than last year. :eek:

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    [QUOTE=Savage69;3637816]That is the right word there are too many variables to make claims like that why not add and had he been a woman he would have won Miss America and Miss Universe contests as well..:rolleyes:[/QUOTE]

    Its funny - I started to type out a long-winded response in line with what you reference, but it got too jumbled, got busy with something else, and merely went with my first reaction.

    But you're right. While its an extraordinary stat, the extrapolation is way too contingent and complex to really mean anything. Revis was great last year. Everyone realizes it. I'm not sure how you can take CB stats though, compare them to other CB stats, and then make the argument as to how good his season was relative to the all time greats at their respective positions, relative to others at the same position.

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    [QUOTE=Savage69;3637843]You may have been playing Madden to long.. The Real world doesn't work like that.. If Tiger Woods was the best Golfer maybe he would make a great DB..:P[/QUOTE]

    I'm not sure you understand what's been posted.

    It's not "how would Revis do as a QB/RB/WR"

    It's "how good would a QB/RB/WR have to be to have had a year as far above the average for his position as Revis was above the average CB last year"

    It has nothing to do with "if Revis was a QB"

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    [QUOTE=Savage69;3637848]I just hate silly speculation.. If he just said Revis had a great year I would agree.. Why not take it to golf and say Revis would have won every tournament and banged Tigers wife as well..:P[/QUOTE]

    Now I'm definitely sure you don't understand what was posted.

    Nothing in the article was speculation.

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    [QUOTE=crasherino;3637870]Its funny - I started to type out a long-winded response in line with what you reference, but it got too jumbled, got busy with something else, and merely went with my first reaction.

    But you're right. While its an extraordinary stat, the extrapolation is way too contingent and complex to really mean anything. Revis was great last year. Everyone realizes it. I'm not sure how you can take CB stats though, compare them to other CB stats, and then make the argument as to how good his season was relative to the all time greats at their respective positions, relative to others at the same position.[/QUOTE]

    All it is is "deviation above average"

    Or, to put it another way:

    "Revis was 3 times as good as an average NFL CB. A QB/RB/WR who was 3 times as good as an average NFL QB/RB/WR would have the following stats ____"

    There's nothing there but math.

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    [QUOTE=doggin94it;3637879]All it is is "deviation above average"

    Or, to put it another way:

    "[B]Revis was 3 times as good as an average NFL CB[/B]. A QB/RB/WR who was 3 times as good as an average NFL QB/RB/WR would have the following stats ____"

    There's nothing there but math.[/QUOTE]

    If he was 3 times better I guess that doesn't include picks?? So can we also say even though a RB had less yardage then Johnson he was actually better?? Why can't people leave it at Revis had a great year and stop putting it in other area's??

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    2 disconcerting conclusions for 2010 from the FO Almanac:

    1. the unlikeliness of our OL remaining healthy
    2. the likely decline of our defense

    I also found this passage surprising:
    [QUOTE]Lito Sheppard got some hype as a comeback player because of the early start, but it was clear to see on tape that he was just enjoying the benefits of having safety or linebacker help on virtually every play. Austin Collie picked Sheppard apart during the two Colts-Jets games in 2009, forcing him to the bench in the AFC Championship Game. [B]Sheppard was let go and replaced by Chargers corner Antonio Cromartie, who should see similar press this year[/B].[/QUOTE]they obviously aren't too high on cromartie being an upgrade over sheppard.

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    [QUOTE=Savage69;3637881]If he was 3 times better I guess that doesn't include picks?? So can we also say even though a RB had less yardage then Johnson he was actually better?? Why can't people leave it at Revis had a great year and stop putting it in other area's??[/QUOTE]

    It's called "putting things in perspective".

    Something I believe you've done in a good portion of your 30,000+ posts regarding a certain former Jet RB . . .;)

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    [QUOTE=Savage69;3637881]If he was 3 times better I guess that doesn't include picks?? So can we also say even though a RB had less yardage then Johnson he was actually better?? Why can't people leave it at Revis had a great year and stop putting it in other area's??[/QUOTE]

    There stats include everything, a holy grail of sorts. It is simple statistics with regard to the comparisons. Nothing wrong about it since there are such limited stats available to the avg fan about corners.

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