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Thread: A look ahead to (hopefully) 2011

  1. #1
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    A look ahead to (hopefully) 2011

    I was thinking about some of the needs we have after the game, and obviously pass rushing is paramount. But some people are calling for Vernon to be cut, and others. So I thought I would do some digging....here we go.
    [U]Unrestricted free agents[/U]
    Shaun Ellis
    Steve Weatherford
    Brodney Pool
    Tony Richardson
    Braylon Edwards
    Wayne Hunter
    Trevor Pryce

    I see it this way....Ellis for a lower price, Pool, Hunter for going rates, but the rest are gone.

    [U]Restricted Free Agents[/U]
    David Harris
    Robert Turner
    Nick Folk
    Antonio Cromartie
    Lance Laury
    Santonio Holmes
    Eric Smith
    Brad Smith
    James Ihedigbo
    Drew Coleman
    Kellen Clemens

    I don't see Harris getting a big contract, so they might franchise him and then try and draft over the next two years some new guys. Cromartie, Holmes Smith, Ihedigbo, and Coleman all get contracts.

    [U]Exclusive Rights[/U]
    Marquice Cole
    Matt Kroul
    Michael Turkovich
    Marcus Dixon

    Probably just Cole and Kroul here.

    Now, as far as the cap, the Jets are sitting at about $110 million WITHOUT signing any of the above guys. Sanchez' cap hit is over $16 million next year, and Revis' is $11 million. Ferguson is just under $10 million.

    Guys who are calling for Vernon to be cut next year, I doubt it. His cap value is just over $6 million, but we don't even save 500,000 if he is cut, meaning he has over $5 million in dead money if cut. Pace CANNOT be cut because he has a cap value of over $7 million and a cap hit of over $9 million next year.

    Here are some interesting names up for being cut:

    [SIZE="3"]Kris Jenkins: Savings-$4.6 million. Dead money $1.8 million
    Damien Woody: Savings-$3.2 million. Dead money $1 million
    LT: Savings: $2.4 million. Dead money: $875,000
    Jim Leonard: Savings: $2 million. Dead money: $333,000
    Bryan Thomas: Savings-$3.7 million. Dead money: [SIZE="3"]0[/SIZE]
    Jason Taylor: Savings: 2.2 million. Dead money: [SIZE="3"]0[/SIZE]
    Ben Hartsock: Savings: $1.6 million. Dead money: [SIZE="3"]0[/SIZE]
    Mike Devito: Savings: $1.5 million. Dead money: [SIZE="3"]0[/SIZE]
    Mark Brunell: Savings: $1.3 million. Dead money: [SIZE="3"]0[/SIZE]
    Kevin O' Connell: Savings: $562,000. Dead money: [SIZE="3"]0[/SIZE]
    Patrick Turner: Savings: $480,000. Dead money: [SIZE="3"]0[/SIZE]
    Matthew Mulligan: Savings: $480,000. Dead money: [SIZE="3"]0[/SIZE]
    Tanner Purdum: Savings: $427,000. Dead money: [SIZE="3"]0[/SIZE][/SIZE]

    I think Kris Jenkins, Damien Woody, and Bryan Thomas make a lot of sense to cut, since those three alone save over $11 million. I think they could then resign Jenkins (given his injury status) and Thomas (age, use) for lower prices. Cutting Hartsock, Brunell, O'Connell and (already) Turner is also another $4 million. But Tanenbaum has ALOT of work to do when you look at the restricted/unrestricted players left to sign. I think he might let Harris go and get a pick for him, as possibly Brad Smith (hate to see that though). Might need a Sanchez restructure as well.

    Alright, this was put together to see some opinions, soooooooo....
    Last edited by CanadaSteve; 12-20-2010 at 01:14 AM.

  2. #2
    Nice work putting that list together. Tanny has a ton of work to do; resigning our own guys is going to be challenging but we also have some gaping holes on the team that also need to be filled.

  3. #3
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    Thanks....it is going to be an interesting off-season, that is for sure. This is the result, I think, of drafting quality over quantity. Eventually, you are going to have to pay everyone.

    Jets could be looking for some trades as well to help them out of this, especially Harris and one of the receivers...

  4. #4
    Weatherford needs to stay.

  5. #5
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    Love your research, but after the season he's had, Weatherford isn't going anywhere.

  6. #6
    If you look at the Dansby contract that he got from the Dolphins, it is hard to believe that the Jets can afford Harris.
    Chicago is up this week, look at how Peppers transformed that defense. Did the Bears overpay JP , absolutely, but Julius has gotten the Bears to be a dominant defense once again, and has gotten them into the playoffs....
    It is about choices....Ngata IMO is the best DL available, he will almost be impossible to sign, but he could help the overall pass rush and defense significantly. Which[B] TWO[/B] players would you sacrifice signing to obtain Ngata ( or a premier pass rusher) ??? [B]Edwards, Holmes, Harris, Cromartie[/B]
    You can't have everybody, it 's about choices

  7. #7
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    [QUOTE=JetOrange;3873124]If you look at the Dansby contract that he got from the Dolphins, it is hard to believe that the Jets can afford Harris.
    Chicago is up this week, look at how Peppers transformed that defense. Did the Bears overpay JP , absolutely, but Julius has gotten the Bears to be a dominant defense once again, and has gotten them into the playoffs....
    It is about choices....Ngata IMO is the best DL available, he will almost be impossible to sign, but he could help the overall pass rush and defense significantly. Which[B] TWO[/B] players would you sacrifice signing to obtain Ngata ( or a premier pass rusher) ??? [B]Edwards, Holmes, Harris, Cromartie[/B]
    You can't have everybody, it 's about choices[/QUOTE]

    I have no problem sacrificing Harris, and Edwards. He is the better choice because he is unrestricted and will want some BIG dollars. Cromartie we might get at a fairly good price. To get Ngata is only a dream however...he will be franchised. I bet he would like to play with Rex though.

    Should be interesting off-season.

  8. #8
    Wouldn't Harris be making absurd $ for a run-stuffing LB if we franchised him in 2011?

    I'm not sure that anyone thinks that Harris would make Dansby-type money, he's a different kind of player. But I could be wrong.

  9. #9
    Cromartie isn't as useful anymore... It's always about beating New England and he's a bad matchup for the smaller guys they use on the outside now. They are just too quick for him.

    Santonio and Braylon are both pretty important though.

    I'd let Ellis go. His production has become ordinary enough where he's just not worth a ton.


    Pass rush is everything, and I only see them getting that in the draft. We need pass rush and athleticism in our pass rushing 4.

  10. #10
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    [QUOTE=JetOrange;3873124]If you look at the Dansby contract that he got from the Dolphins, it is hard to believe that the Jets can afford Harris.
    Chicago is up this week, look at how Peppers transformed that defense. Did the Bears overpay JP , absolutely, but Julius has gotten the Bears to be a dominant defense once again, and has gotten them into the playoffs....
    It is about choices....Ngata IMO is the best DL available, he will almost be impossible to sign, but he could help the overall pass rush and defense significantly. Which[B] TWO[/B] players would you sacrifice signing to obtain Ngata ( or a premier pass rusher) ??? [B]Edwards, Holmes, Harris, Cromartie[/B]
    You can't have everybody, it 's about choices[/QUOTE]

    I'd give up Edwards and Cromartie for Ngata.

  11. #11
    [QUOTE=sourceworx;3873499]I'd give up Edwards and Cromartie for Ngata.[/QUOTE]

    No chance at Ngata..

    Even if Ngata is a Rex guy and he WANTS to come here, they'll just franchise him. And he's not the type to put up a massive fight to force his way either.

  12. #12
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    If given the choice, I'd let cromartie holmes go. Gotta keep braylon on this team. He's definately the most talented reciever we have, and buys into what we are trying to do.

    I don't think going after ngata is a smart move unless we can get a Rex discount. I'd rather trade down in the draft this year and draft a bunch of D-line in 2nd-3rd rounds.

  13. #13
    [QUOTE=CanadaSteve;3872921]I was thinking about some of the needs we have after the game, and obviously pass rushing is paramount. But some people are calling for Vernon to be cut, and others. So I thought I would do some digging....here we go.
    [U]Unrestricted free agents[/U]
    Shaun Ellis
    [B]Steve Weatherford[/B]
    Brodney Pool
    Tony Richardson
    [B]Braylon Edwards[/B]
    Wayne Hunter
    Trevor Pryce

    I see it this way....Ellis for a lower price, Pool, Hunter for going rates, but the rest are gone.

    [U]Restricted Free Agents[/U]
    [B]David Harris[/B]
    Robert Turner
    Nick Folk
    [B]Antonio Cromartie[/B]
    Lance Laury
    [B]Santonio Holmes[/B]
    Eric Smith
    [B]Brad Smith[/B]
    James Ihedigbo
    Drew Coleman
    Kellen Clemens

    I don't see Harris getting a big contract, so they might franchise him and then try and draft over the next two years some new guys. Cromartie, Holmes Smith, Ihedigbo, and Coleman all get contracts.

    [U]Exclusive Rights[/U]
    Marquice Cole
    Matt Kroul
    Michael Turkovich
    Marcus Dixon

    Probably just Cole and Kroul here.

    Now, as far as the cap, the Jets are sitting at about $110 million WITHOUT signing any of the above guys. Sanchez' cap hit is over $16 million next year, and Revis' is $11 million. Ferguson is just under $10 million.

    Guys who are calling for Vernon to be cut next year, I doubt it. His cap value is just over $6 million, but we don't even save 500,000 if he is cut, meaning he has over $5 million in dead money if cut. Pace CANNOT be cut because he has a cap value of over $7 million and a cap hit of over $9 million next year.

    Here are some interesting names up for being cut:

    [SIZE="3"]Kris Jenkins: Savings-$4.6 million. Dead money $1.8 million
    Damien Woody: Savings-$3.2 million. Dead money $1 million
    LT: Savings: $2.4 million. Dead money: $875,000
    [B]Jim Leonard[/B]: Savings: $2 million. Dead money: $333,000
    [B]Bryan Thomas[/B]: Savings-$3.7 million. Dead money: [SIZE="3"]0[/SIZE]
    Jason Taylor: Savings: 2.2 million. Dead money: [SIZE="3"]0[/SIZE]
    Ben Hartsock: Savings: $1.6 million. Dead money: [SIZE="3"]0[/SIZE]
    Mike Devito: Savings: $1.5 million. Dead money: [SIZE="3"]0[/SIZE]
    Mark Brunell: Savings: $1.3 million. Dead money: [SIZE="3"]0[/SIZE]
    Kevin O' Connell: Savings: $562,000. Dead money: [SIZE="3"]0[/SIZE]
    Patrick Turner: Savings: $480,000. Dead money: [SIZE="3"]0[/SIZE]
    Matthew Mulligan: Savings: $480,000. Dead money: [SIZE="3"]0[/SIZE]
    Tanner Purdum: Savings: $427,000. Dead money: [SIZE="3"]0[/SIZE][/SIZE]

    I think Kris Jenkins, Damien Woody, and Bryan Thomas make a lot of sense to cut, since those three alone save over $11 million. I think they could then resign Jenkins (given his injury status) and Thomas (age, use) for lower prices. Cutting Hartsock, Brunell, O'Connell and (already) Turner is also another $4 million. But Tanenbaum has ALOT of work to do when you look at the restricted/unrestricted players left to sign. I think he might let Harris go and get a pick for him, as possibly Brad Smith (hate to see that though). Might need a Sanchez restructure as well.

    Alright, this was put together to see some opinions, soooooooo....[/QUOTE]

    Bold are the ones that must stay, at least for now. Until we find a replacement or a solid partner next to him, Jim Leonhard is our safety. Plus Rex will never cut him. I think it's a no brainer, since Braylon is an unrestricted free agent the Jets should franchise him. I say let David Harris test free agency, we can always match and I don't think any team is going to give him Patrick Willis money. Plus we can receive compensation if we don't want to match. Brad Smith, Holmes and Cro must all be resigned IMO. We can definitely resign these guys right away.

    I think Jenkins will take a paycut to stay on the team. But if he doesn't, thanks for the service. Bryan Thomas is our only solution at the other OLB spot, so I don't see the Jets cutting him, not until they find a replacement. Everybody else can pretty much go. I'm wondering if Jason Taylor wants to play another season, will Rex keep him?

  14. #14
    All I have on my wish list for the offseason is two guys:

    Cameron Heyward
    Manny Lawson

    If we get really lucky...Rubin from the Browns (thanks to CBNY for this one, had no idea he'd be a FA so soon).

    I hate to say it but I really think David Harris is a goner. It's too easy a position to replace without spending 8+ million.

  15. #15
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    Bumped to answer some questions asked in other threads about where we can save some money next year.

  16. #16
    You mean in 2012?

    There is not going to be football next year.

  17. #17
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    Here are a couple of free agents that I would take a long look at:

    Manny Lawson (OLB, 49ers)
    DeAngelo Williams (RB, Panthers)
    James Jones (WR, Packers)
    Legedu Nanee (WR, Chargers)
    Bo Scaife (TE, Titans)
    Vernon Davis (TE, 49ers)
    Kellen Winslow (TE, Buccaneers)
    Cullen Jenkins (DE, Packers)
    Mathias Kiwanuka (OLB/DE, Giants)
    Paul Soliai (NT, Dolphins)
    Desmond Bishop (ILB, Packers)
    Kevin Burnett (ILB, Chargers)
    Justin Durant (ILB, Jaguars)
    Tamba Hali (OLB, Chiefs)
    Tanard Jackson (S, Buccaneers)
    Paul Oliver (S/CB, Chargers)
    Johnathan Jospeh (CB, Bengals)
    Eric Wright (CB, Browns)

    Now the players I mentioned also include guys who would be backup plans if Harris, Cromartie or one of the wide receivers leaves. Tight end is a position we should severaly look to upgrade. I didnt include a few big names like Ngata and Woodley who would obviously be awesome but highly unlikely to leave their current teams. Two very good guards might also hit the open market with Justin Blalock from the Falcons and Davin Joseph from the Bucs.

  18. #18
    [QUOTE=Dimitri_0515;3873530]Bold are the ones that must stay, at least for now. Until we find a replacement or a solid partner next to him, Jim Leonhard is our safety. Plus Rex will never cut him. I think it's a no brainer, since Braylon is an unrestricted free agent the Jets should franchise him. I say let David Harris test free agency, we can always match and I don't think any team is going to give him Patrick Willis money. Plus we can receive compensation if we don't want to match. Brad Smith, Holmes and Cro must all be resigned IMO. We can definitely resign these guys right away.

    I think Jenkins will take a paycut to stay on the team. But if he doesn't, thanks for the service. Bryan Thomas is our only solution at the other OLB spot, so I don't see the Jets cutting him, not until they find a replacement. Everybody else can pretty much go. I'm wondering if Jason Taylor wants to play another season, will Rex keep him?[/QUOTE]


    While Franchising Edwards is a real possibility, I think the Jets can get him cheaper than that and can use the franchise tag elsewhere.

  19. #19
    How did you figure the Restricted FA list, those guys are all "free" FA. The rule that applies to extending the base years of service that applied last year does not apply this year. it is back to 4 years.

    What do you see as the going rates for a RT in hunters case?

    Holmes and Cro Will probably need to get at least 7 mill per to keep them from testing the market.

    Smith will get about 3 mill per year

  20. #20
    I can see Ellis Staying with the jets for a reduced price, say 4 mill a year

    So, Wayne Hunter is going to be your RT next year?

    How do you figure these guys are restricted? I see them as FA or do you see a new contract keeping FA until 6 years of service and not after 4 years as it will be come March if the contract is not ratified.

    Harris if tagged will be about 8 mill, IMO he will sign for about 80% of what Scott got or he will walk. you can't ask the guy to take that much less than a guy he is better than.

    Cro will get at least 7.5 a year from Houston

    Holmes will get about the same, although with some contract stipulations

    After your moves you don't have any starting safeties, no back up qb and 4 defensive lineman. your stating cap hits savings but don't take into account that these guys all need to be replaced with vets making the min to about 1 mill which will account for at least 12 mill just to fill out a 53 man roster.

    The jets loaded up for bear this season, this team was not built for long term.
    they don't have enough of talented low paid draft picks on the roster as back ups.

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