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Thread: What is your best-case scenario regarding playoff seeding? Here's mine!

  1. #1
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    What is your best-case scenario regarding playoff seeding? Here's mine!

    I'll go team by team, and then post what the final results will be. I'll also try and keep it fairly realistic. Obviously, I want the Jets to win out, and I think that's very possible.


    [SIZE="4"][COLOR="Red"]CHIEFS[/COLOR][/SIZE]: Win out. With two wins, the Chiefs would finish 11-5 and win the AFCW. They finish the season with two home games against the Titans and Raiders, and they are 6-0 at home on the season.
    Probability: [B]Good[/B]

    [SIZE="4"][COLOR="Teal"]Jaguars[/COLOR][/SIZE]: Win out. They play the Redskins and Texans, two teams with nothing left to play for, and wins would leave the Jaguars at 10-6, but needing help to win their division.
    Probability: [B]Good[/B]

    [SIZE="4"][COLOR="Blue"]Colts[/COLOR][/SIZE]: Lose to Oakland. If the Colts were to lose to Oakland, they would fall to 8-7, and be eliminated from the playoffs. This might seem like a stretch with how well the Colts have been playing, but there are a few things to consider. The Colts are only 3-4 on the road this season. It also may be raining which would favor the Raiders. Combine that with the Raiders success running the ball, and the Colts difficulty stopping the run, and this seems like a definite possibility.

    Probability: [B]Average[/B]

    [SIZE="4"][COLOR="DarkOrchid"]Ravens[/COLOR][/SIZE]: Lose one of two games. This seems unlikely, but let's remember that the Ravens almost lost to the Browns when they first played. If the Ravens lose and the Jets win out, the Ravens would get the 6 seed and the Jets would get the 5th seed.

    Probability: [B]Not Great[/B]

    [SIZE="4"][COLOR="Black"]
    Steelers[/COLOR][/SIZE]: Win out. The Steelers finish with the Panthers and Browns. Those are definitely winnable games, although the Steelers did lose to the Browns at the end of last season.

    Probability: [B]Very good[/B]

    Where that would leave us

    1. Patriots
    2. Steelers
    3. Chiefs (11-5)
    4. Jaguars (10-6)
    5. Jets (12-4)
    6. Ravens (11-5)

    The Jets would get to go to Jacksonville where they would face a team that's dependent on running the ball. On top of that, Sanchez would get to play in decent weather conditions and not have to worry about being rattled by a real crowd.

    I think the Ravens would beat the Chiefs, and if that happened, the Ravens would play the Patriots. I think the Ravens match up to the Patriots very well, and I think the Ravens have a much better chance of beating the Patriots than the Jets do.

    I also think the Jets can win in Pittsburgh, (in fact, I think that's been proven) and that would leave a Jets-Ravens AFC Championship, which might slightly favor the Ravens, but it would be a very close match-up.

    What are your thoughts?

  2. #2
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    Well, the best case scenario would be Pats lose out, we win out, Steelers win out, and we're the 1 seed.

    But realistically, playing the Jaguars would be nice. Any scenario where we avoid the Chargers in the first round is worth celebrating.

  3. #3
    i agree 100% and then id be road tripping down to jacksonville

  4. #4
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    I don't care about seeding, the key is for the team to get on a roll they have two weeks to get this fukr rolling.

  5. #5
    You want to be the best? You have to beat the best. There is no easy road to the Super Bowl.

  6. #6
    Thanks for putting that together.

    I agree that scenario seems to favor the Jets up until the AFCCG, in which I'd love to see a Jets-Ravens rematch :yes:

    Your scenario also gives us our only opportunity for a home game in the playoffs (outside of the improbable outcome of the Pasts losing their remaining games)

  7. #7
    The other way this could go is if the Chargers, Chiefs, and Ravens lose one of their last two, we would go to Kansas City as the 5th seed.

  8. #8
    [QUOTE=Revi$_I$l@nd;3875474]Thanks for putting that together.

    I agree that scenario seems to favor the Jets up until the AFCCG, in which I'd love to see a Jets-Ravens rematch :yes:

    Your scenario also gives us our only opportunity for a home game in the playoffs (outside of the improbable outcome of the Pasts losing their remaining games)[/QUOTE]

    + 1

  9. #9
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    [QUOTE=Revi$_I$l@nd;3875474]Thanks for putting that together.

    I agree that scenario seems to favor the Jets up until the AFCCG, in which I'd love to see a Jets-Ravens rematch :yes:

    Your scenario also gives us our only opportunity for a home game in the playoffs (outside of the improbable outcome of the Pasts losing their remaining games)[/QUOTE]

    Didn't even realize the Jets would host the Ravens in my scenario, but that would be an added bonus.

  10. #10
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    [QUOTE=southside;3875470]You want to be the best? You have to beat the best. There is no easy road to the Super Bowl.[/QUOTE]

    I don't necessarily agree with that. It's well known that the Colts struggle to beat the Chargers. You don't think the Colts were celebrating last season when we beat the Chargers? Sometimes the seedings work out favorably for you and you get to avoid a team that you don't match up well with. In this case, that's the Patriots.

  11. #11
    Personally I would want the Ravens to Win out and take the #2 seed and hope for the Steelers to lose to either the Browns or somehow the Panthers because we own the tiebreaker over them and would get the 5th Seed and play either the Colts, Jags or Cheifs.

  12. #12
    [QUOTE=njherdfan;3875496]I don't necessarily agree with that. It's well known that the Colts struggle to beat the Chargers. You don't think the Colts were celebrating last season when we beat the Chargers? Sometimes the seedings work out favorably for you and you get to avoid a team that you don't match up well with. In this case, that's the Patriots.[/QUOTE]

    This is exactly right. Yeah, it's about being and beating the best, but it's also about the matchups en route as you can't play everybody. The Jets, Steelers & Ravens could all end up at 12-4. But you don't think the Pats would prefer to play either of the first two in the playoffs?

    The Jets' chances go up indefinitely if they're able to avoid the Colts, Chargers & Pats on the way to the Super Bowl. The only NFC teams that they match up poorly with are the Eagles and Saints (maybe the Giants, but don't know for sure). The Jets could realistically get favorable matchups all the way to a championship, and while unlikely, that's what we should be pulling for.
    Last edited by GreenWave; 12-21-2010 at 06:46 PM.

  13. #13
    If jets win 2 and go 12-4,Steelers win 2 and go 12-4,and Ravens lose once and go 11-5,don't we get #2 over Steelers because we beat them head to head?

  14. #14
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    [QUOTE=section314;3875534]If jets win 2 and go 12-4,Steelers win 2 and go 12-4,and Ravens lose once and go 11-5,don't we get #2 over Steelers because we beat them head to head?[/QUOTE]

    No, the Jets can't get a top 2 seed unless they win their division. Non-division winners are automatically wild cards

  15. #15
    [QUOTE=section314;3875534]If jets win 2 and go 12-4,Steelers win 2 and go 12-4,and Ravens lose once and go 11-5,don't we get #2 over Steelers because we beat them head to head?[/QUOTE]

    No because we didn't win the division.

    WC teams are in the 5 and 6 spots based on record. The best thing we can hope for is that the Ravens win the division so we can have the 5th seed and not have to play the Pats.

  16. #16
    [QUOTE=njherdfan;3875454]I'll go team by team, and then post what the final results will be. I'll also try and keep it fairly realistic. Obviously, I want the Jets to win out, and I think that's very possible.


    [SIZE="4"][COLOR="Red"]CHIEFS[/COLOR][/SIZE]: Win out. With two wins, the Chiefs would finish 11-5 and win the AFCW. They finish the season with two home games against the Titans and Raiders, and they are 6-0 at home on the season.
    Probability: [B]Good[/B]

    [SIZE="4"][COLOR="Teal"]Jaguars[/COLOR][/SIZE]: Win out. They play the Redskins and Texans, two teams with nothing left to play for, and wins would leave the Jaguars at 10-6, but needing help to win their division.
    Probability: [B]Good[/B]

    [SIZE="4"][COLOR="Blue"]Colts[/COLOR][/SIZE]: Lose to Oakland. If the Colts were to lose to Oakland, they would fall to 8-7, and be eliminated from the playoffs. This might seem like a stretch with how well the Colts have been playing, but there are a few things to consider. The Colts are only 3-4 on the road this season. It also may be raining which would favor the Raiders. Combine that with the Raiders success running the ball, and the Colts difficulty stopping the run, and this seems like a definite possibility.

    Probability: [B]Average[/B]

    [SIZE="4"][COLOR="DarkOrchid"]Ravens[/COLOR][/SIZE]: Lose one of two games. This seems unlikely, but let's remember that the Ravens almost lost to the Browns when they first played. If the Ravens lose and the Jets win out, the Ravens would get the 6 seed and the Jets would get the 5th seed.

    Probability: [B]Not Great[/B]

    [SIZE="4"][COLOR="Black"]
    Steelers[/COLOR][/SIZE]: Win out. The Steelers finish with the Panthers and Browns. Those are definitely winnable games, although the Steelers did lose to the Browns at the end of last season.

    Probability: [B]Very good[/B]

    Where that would leave us

    1. Patriots
    2. Steelers
    3. Chiefs (11-5)
    4. Jaguars (10-6)
    5. Jets (12-4)
    6. Ravens (11-5)

    The Jets would get to go to Jacksonville where they would face a team that's dependent on running the ball. On top of that, Sanchez would get to play in decent weather conditions and not have to worry about being rattled by a real crowd.

    I think the Ravens would beat the Chiefs, and if that happened, the Ravens would play the Patriots. I think the Ravens match up to the Patriots very well, and I think the Ravens have a much better chance of beating the Patriots than the Jets do.

    I also think the Jets can win in Pittsburgh, (in fact, I think that's been proven) and that would leave a Jets-Ravens AFC Championship, which might slightly favor the Ravens, but it would be a very close match-up.

    What are your thoughts?[/QUOTE]

    If it came down to it I don't think the Ravens are significantly better than us. I'm not a Flacco fan, they beat us by one whole point, and we totally could have had that first game if Keller didn't step out of bounds short of that first down. I fully believe they could have gotten into FG range and maybe stolen that game if it wasn't so clearly fixed (I'm still trying to figure out what caused Keller to step out).

  17. #17
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    I was saying today that my best scenario is anyway NE gets knocked out and we advance with out having to face them!!

  18. #18
    [QUOTE=njherdfan;3875454]I'll go team by team, and then post what the final results will be. I'll also try and keep it fairly realistic. Obviously, I want the Jets to win out, and I think that's very possible.


    [SIZE="4"][COLOR="Red"]CHIEFS[/COLOR][/SIZE]: Win out. With two wins, the Chiefs would finish 11-5 and win the AFCW. They finish the season with two home games against the Titans and Raiders, and they are 6-0 at home on the season.
    Probability: [B]Good[/B]

    [SIZE="4"][COLOR="Teal"]Jaguars[/COLOR][/SIZE]: Win out. They play the Redskins and Texans, two teams with nothing left to play for, and wins would leave the Jaguars at 10-6, but needing help to win their division.
    Probability: [B]Good[/B]

    [SIZE="4"][COLOR="Blue"]Colts[/COLOR][/SIZE]: Lose to Oakland. If the Colts were to lose to Oakland, they would fall to 8-7, and be eliminated from the playoffs. This might seem like a stretch with how well the Colts have been playing, but there are a few things to consider. The Colts are only 3-4 on the road this season. It also may be raining which would favor the Raiders. Combine that with the Raiders success running the ball, and the Colts difficulty stopping the run, and this seems like a definite possibility.

    Probability: [B]Average[/B]

    [SIZE="4"][COLOR="DarkOrchid"]Ravens[/COLOR][/SIZE]: Lose one of two games. This seems unlikely, but let's remember that the Ravens almost lost to the Browns when they first played. If the Ravens lose and the Jets win out, the Ravens would get the 6 seed and the Jets would get the 5th seed.

    Probability: [B]Not Great[/B]

    [SIZE="4"][COLOR="Black"]
    Steelers[/COLOR][/SIZE]: Win out. The Steelers finish with the Panthers and Browns. Those are definitely winnable games, although the Steelers did lose to the Browns at the end of last season.

    Probability: [B]Very good[/B]

    Where that would leave us

    1. Patriots
    2. Steelers
    3. Chiefs (11-5)
    4. Jaguars (10-6)
    5. Jets (12-4)
    6. Ravens (11-5)

    The Jets would get to go to Jacksonville where they would face a team that's dependent on running the ball. On top of that, Sanchez would get to play in decent weather conditions and not have to worry about being rattled by a real crowd.

    I think the Ravens would beat the Chiefs, and if that happened, the Ravens would play the Patriots. I think the Ravens match up to the Patriots very well, and I think the Ravens have a much better chance of beating the Patriots than the Jets do.

    I also think the Jets can win in Pittsburgh, (in fact, I think that's been proven) and that would leave a Jets-Ravens AFC Championship, which might slightly favor the Ravens, but it would be a very close match-up.

    What are your thoughts?[/QUOTE]

    If it came down to it I don't think the Ravens are significantly better than us. I'm not a Flacco fan, they beat us by one whole point, and we totally could have had that first game if Keller didn't step out of bounds short of that first down. I fully believe they could have gotten into FG range and maybe stolen that game if it wasn't so clearly fixed (I'm still trying to figure out what caused Keller to step out).

  19. #19
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    I just want us to avoid playing the Chargers or Colts at all costs. And preferably nabbing the 5th seed so that if we do win the 1st round we don't go to New England.

  20. #20
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    Agree you're scenario looks pretty good (short of us winning the division).

    If you're interested to know the chances of it happening, take a look at this website:

    [url]http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NFL.html[/url]

    Statistical reduction is pretty accurate, although obviously not perfect at analyzing the relative strength of various teams and their likelyhood of winning. Anyway, it's interesting to look at.

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