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Thread: Draft v Trade Markets

  1. #1

    Draft v Trade Markets

    Grad school doesnt restart for another 7 days, so I have the time to investigate an NFL managerial trend that I've suspected.

    In abstract - Many NFL picks, particularly late picks, absolutely suck. They give you pretty negligible production throughout their entire careers. Plus, they tie up roster and monetary liquidity for the organization. If football had a way of calculating the values given by 3rd-7th round draft picks over replacement (presumably an UDFA) talent, I strongly suspect it would be negligible.

    Conversely: Marshall for a 4th, Vilma for a 4th, Moss for a 2nd, Homes for a 5th, etc etc etc.

    With the exception of 1st and 2nd rounders, I feel that one seasons production of a solid player is likely to exceed the career value of most mid and late picks. Plus, even if the salaries are much higher for proven talent than for rookies, I suspect that the production per $ is way higher for traded personnel than drafted personnel. Basically I am curious if the trade market is as efficient as it seems to be, and what sort of implications it might have for the Jets (Mr T being a wheeler).

    What I need help with is coming up with the stupid amounts of information needed for this. Does anyone know of any place where draft pick/career production are neatly collated? Has this ever been examined so I can just read the article and not waste my time? Thanks

  2. #2
    Quote Originally Posted by hamburglar View Post
    Does anyone know of any place where draft pick/career production are neatly collated? Has this ever been examined so I can just read the article and not waste my time? Thanks
    it's not exactly what you are looking for but there was an NFL.com article by Casserly not too long ago that broke down the percentage of success by round. It was something like 40% in round 1, 30% in round 2 and by round 7 it was like 5% or less. there was a higher rate of success on some of the undrafted players than the round 7 players.

  3. #3
    The trade value for established players is usually tempered by the fact that there is something wrong with the veteran potentially productive player thus making him available and available cheap. (I know I didn't answer the op's question but this is an interesting topic to discuss.)

  4. #4
    An interesting corollary to this topic would be the success by position and the impact on certain units of teams trading away the later picks.

    For example:
    Jets trade away a lot of their picks to acquire skill positions (trade ups, trade for players). Is there subsequent weakness in the trench players, where I imagine late round success rates might be higher? Sports media is such a fail, they never do any sort of investigation just the same crap repeated again and again.

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