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Thread: Oil Prices- Interesting article

  1. #1
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    Oil Prices- Interesting article

    WikiLeaks cables: Saudi Arabia cannot pump enough oil to keep a lid on pricesUS diplomat convinced by Saudi expert that reserves of world's biggest oil exporter have been overstated by nearly 40%

    Saudi oil refinery. WikiLeaks cables suggest the amount of oil that can be retrieved has been overestimated. Photograph: George Steinmetz/Corbis

    The US fears that Saudi Arabia, the world's largest crude oil exporter, may not have enough reserves to prevent oil prices escalating, confidential cables from its embassy in Riyadh show.

    The cables, released by WikiLeaks, urge Washington to take seriously a warning from a senior Saudi government oil executive that the kingdom's crude oil reserves may have been overstated by as much as 300bn barrels nearly 40%.

    The revelation comes as the oil price has soared in recent weeks to more than $100 a barrel on global demand and tensions in the Middle East. Many analysts expect that the Saudis and their Opec cartel partners would pump more oil if rising prices threatened to choke off demand.

    However, Sadad al-Husseini, a geologist and former head of exploration at the Saudi oil monopoly Aramco, met the US consul general in Riyadh in November 2007 and told the US diplomat that Aramco's 12.5m barrel-a-day capacity needed to keep a lid on prices could not be reached.

    According to the cables, which date between 2007-09, Husseini said Saudi Arabia might reach an output of 12m barrels a day in 10 years but before then possibly as early as 2012 global oil production would have hit its highest point. This crunch point is known as "peak oil".

    Husseini said that at that point Aramco would not be able to stop the rise of global oil prices because the Saudi energy industry had overstated its recoverable reserves to spur foreign investment. He argued that Aramco had badly underestimated the time needed to bring new oil on tap.

    One cable said: "According to al-Husseini, the crux of the issue is twofold. First, it is possible that Saudi reserves are not as bountiful as sometimes described, and the timeline for their production not as unrestrained as Aramco and energy optimists would like to portray."

    It went on: "In a presentation, Abdallah al-Saif, current Aramco senior vice-president for exploration, reported that Aramco has 716bn barrels of total reserves, of which 51% are recoverable, and that in 20 years Aramco will have 900bn barrels of reserves.

    "Al-Husseini disagrees with this analysis, believing Aramco's reserves are overstated by as much as 300bn barrels. In his view once 50% of original proven reserves has been reached a steady output in decline will ensue and no amount of effort will be able to stop it. He believes that what will result is a plateau in total output that will last approximately 15 years followed by decreasing output."

    The US consul then told Washington: "While al-Husseini fundamentally contradicts the Aramco company line, he is no doomsday theorist. His pedigree, experience and outlook demand that his predictions be thoughtfully considered."

    Seven months later, the US embassy in Riyadh went further in two more cables. "Our mission now questions how much the Saudis can now substantively influence the crude markets over the long term. Clearly they can drive prices up, but we question whether they any longer have the power to drive prices down for a prolonged period."

    A fourth cable, in October 2009, claimed that escalating electricity demand by Saudi Arabia may further constrain Saudi oil exports. "Demand [for electricity] is expected to grow 10% a year over the next decade as a result of population and economic growth. As a result it will need to double its generation capacity to 68,000MW in 2018," it said.

    It also reported major project delays and accidents as "evidence that the Saudi Aramco is having to run harder to stay in place to replace the decline in existing production." While fears of premature "peak oil" and Saudi production problems had been expressed before, no US official has come close to saying this in public.

    In the last two years, other senior energy analysts have backed Husseini. Fatih Birol, chief economist to the International Energy Agency, told the Guardian last year that conventional crude output could plateau in 2020, a development that was "not good news" for a world still heavily dependent on petroleum.

    Jeremy Leggett, convenor of the UK Industry Taskforce on Peak Oil and Energy Security, said: "We are asleep at the wheel here: choosing to ignore a threat to the global economy that is quite as bad as the credit crunch, quite possibly worse."

  2. #2
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    it really wouldn't surprise me to see gasoline at 5 dollars a gallon by the end of the decade. peak oil is just about here... and eventually it will become more important to make jet fuel and other fuels out of it than car fuel.

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    [QUOTE=bitonti;3955108]it really wouldn't surprise me to see gasoline at 5 dollars a gallon by the end of the decade.[/QUOTE]

    More like next year.

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    when the marines are developing solar power alternatives ya know it's serious.

    [IMG]http://i.i.com.com/cnwk.1d/i/tim/2011/01/14/101229-M-5423P-001_1_610x343.jpg[/IMG]

    [URL]http://news.cnet.com/8301-11128_3-20028553-54.html?part=rss&subj=news&tag=2547-1_3-0-20[/URL]

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    We need to start drilling here. NOW.

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    [QUOTE=quantum;3955272]We need to start drilling here. NOW.[/QUOTE]

    In Long Island? :confused:

  7. #7
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    The energy market is more competitive today then ever. Thinking that Oil is going to 200 dollars a barrell because oil reserves are going down and energy demands are growing isn't taking into account falling natural gas prices, increased nuclear capacity and other alternate forms of energy which directly compete with oil.

    There is new technology that is increasing the supply of natural gas by huge multiples. Oil drilling technology is getting better, nuclear power is safer then ever, clean coal technology is evolving along with solar, wind and advanced computer science that makes energy use far more efficient.

    Nothing is static.

  8. #8
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    Come on [URL="http://www.pluginamerica.org/vehicle-tracker?make=All&drivetrain=PHEV&class=CarOrTruck&charger=All&cvrp=All"]VOLT[/URL]

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    [QUOTE=Winstonbiggs;3955413]The energy market is more competitive today then ever. Thinking that Oil is going to 200 dollars a barrell because oil reserves are going down and energy demands are growing isn't taking into account falling natural gas prices, increased nuclear capacity and other alternate forms of energy which directly compete with oil.

    There is new technology that is increasing the supply of natural gas by huge multiples. Oil drilling technology is getting better, nuclear power is safer then ever, clean coal technology is evolving along with solar, wind and advanced computer science that makes energy use far more efficient.

    Nothing is static.[/QUOTE]

    While everything you say is likely valid, it doesn't make for a very good post apocalyptic movie script now does it?!

    [IMG]http://t0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcR5Ae0E5eBaagQmJGxJrSh5NstMaji8L3_N8G8kx_YFA4XApYU8ow[/IMG]

    In related news...

    [url]http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110209/ap_on_re_us/us_shale_oil[/url]

    New drilling method opens vast oil fields in US

    A new drilling technique is opening up vast fields of previously out-of-reach oil in the western United States, helping reverse a two-decade decline in domestic production of crude.
    Companies are investing billions of dollars to get at oil deposits scattered across North Dakota, Colorado, Texas and California. By 2015, oil executives and analysts say, the new fields could yield as much as 2 million barrels of oil a day more than the entire Gulf of Mexico produces now.
    This new drilling is expected to raise U.S. production by at least 20 percent over the next five years. And within 10 years, it could help reduce oil imports by more than half, advancing a goal that has long eluded policymakers.
    "That's a significant contribution to energy security," says Ed Morse, head of commodities research at Credit Suisse.
    Oil engineers are applying what critics say is an environmentally questionable method developed in recent years to tap natural gas trapped in underground shale. They drill down and horizontally into the rock, then pump water, sand and chemicals into the hole to crack the shale and allow gas to flow up.
    Because oil molecules are sticky and larger than gas molecules, engineers thought the process wouldn't work to squeeze oil out fast enough to make it economical. But drillers learned how to increase the number of cracks in the rock and use different chemicals to free up oil at low cost.
    "We've completely transformed the natural gas industry, and I wouldn't be surprised if we transform the oil business in the next few years too," says Aubrey McClendon, chief executive of Chesapeake Energy, which is using the technique.
    Petroleum engineers first used the method in 2007 to unlock oil from a 25,000-square-mile formation under North Dakota and Montana known as the Bakken. Production there rose 50 percent in just the past year, to 458,000 barrels a day, according to Bentek Energy, an energy analysis firm.
    It was first thought that the Bakken was unique. Then drillers tapped oil in a shale formation under South Texas called the Eagle Ford. Drilling permits in the region grew 11-fold last year.
    Now newer fields are showing promise, including the Niobrara, which stretches under Wyoming, Colorado, Nebraska and Kansas; the Leonard, in New Mexico and Texas; and the Monterey, in California.
    "It's only been fleshed out over the last 12 months just how consequential this can be," says Mark Papa, chief executive of EOG Resources, the company that first used horizontal drilling to tap shale oil. "And there will be several additional plays that will come about in the next 12 to 18 months. We're not done yet."
    Environmentalists fear that fluids or wastewater from the process, called hydraulic fracturing, could pollute drinking water supplies. The Environmental Protection Agency is now studying its safety in shale drilling. The agency studied use of the process in shallower drilling operations in 2004 and found that it was safe.
    In the Bakken formation, production is rising so fast there is no space in pipelines to bring the oil to market. Instead, it is being transported to refineries by rail and truck. Drilling companies have had to erect camps to house workers.
    Unemployment in North Dakota has fallen to the lowest level in the nation, 3.8 percent less than half the national rate of 9 percent. The influx of mostly male workers to the region has left local men lamenting a lack of women. Convenience stores are struggling to keep shelves stocked with food.
    The Bakken and the Eagle Ford are each expected to ultimately produce 4 billion barrels of oil. That would make them the fifth- and sixth-biggest oil fields ever discovered in the United States. The top four are Prudhoe Bay in Alaska, Spraberry Trend in West Texas, the East Texas Oilfield and the Kuparuk Field in Alaska.
    The fields are attracting billions of dollars of investment from foreign oil giants like Royal Dutch Shell, BP and Norway's Statoil, and also from the smaller U.S. drillers who developed the new techniques like Chesapeake, EOG Resources and Occidental Petroleum.
    Last month China's state-owned oil company CNOOC agreed to pay Chesapeake $570 million for a one-third stake in a drilling project in the Niobrara. This followed a $1 billion deal in October between the two companies on a project in the Eagle Ford.
    With oil prices high and natural-gas prices low, profit margins from producing oil from shale are much higher than for gas. Also, drilling for shale oil is not dependent on high oil prices. Papa says this oil is cheaper to tap than the oil in the deep waters of the Gulf of Mexico or in Canada's oil sands.
    The country's shale oil resources aren't nearly as big as the country's shale gas resources. Drillers have unlocked decades' worth of natural gas, an abundance of supply that may keep prices low for years. U.S. shale oil on the other hand will only supply one to two percent of world consumption by 2015, not nearly enough to affect prices.
    Still, a surge in production last year from the Bakken helped U.S. oil production grow for the second year in a row, after 23 years of decline. This during a year when drilling in the Gulf of Mexico, the nation's biggest oil-producing region, was halted after the BP oil spill.
    U.S. oil production climbed steadily through most of the last century and reached a peak of 9.6 million barrels per day in 1970. The decline since was slowed by new production in Alaska in the 1980s and in the Gulf of Mexico more recently. But by 2008, production had fallen to 5 million barrels per day.
    Within five years, analysts and executives predict, the newly unlocked fields are expected to produce 1 million to 2 million barrels of oil per day, enough to boost U.S. production 20 percent to 40 percent. The U.S. Energy Information Administration estimates production will grow a more modest 500,000 barrels per day.
    By 2020, oil imports could be slashed by as much as 60 percent, according to Credit Suisse's Morse, who is counting on Gulf oil production to rise and on U.S. gasoline demand to fall.
    At today's oil prices of roughly $90 per barrel, slashing imports that much would save the U.S. $175 billion a year. Last year, when oil averaged $78 per barrel, the U.S. sent $260 billion overseas for crude, accounting for nearly half the country's $500 billion trade deficit.
    "We have redefined how to look for oil and gas," says Rehan Rashid, an analyst at FBR Capital Markets. "The implications are major for the nation."
    Last edited by frostlich; 02-09-2011 at 05:27 PM.

  10. #10
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    [QUOTE=frostlich;3955610]While everything you say is likely valid, it doesn't make for a very good post apocalyptic movie script now does it?!

    [IMG]http://t0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcR5Ae0E5eBaagQmJGxJrSh5NstMaji8L3_N8G8kx_YFA4XApYU8ow[/IMG]

    In related news...

    [url]http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110209/ap_on_re_us/us_shale_oil[/url]

    New drilling method opens vast oil fields in US

    A new drilling technique is opening up vast fields of previously out-of-reach oil in the western United States, helping reverse a two-decade decline in domestic production of crude.
    Companies are investing billions of dollars to get at oil deposits scattered across North Dakota, Colorado, Texas and California. By 2015, oil executives and analysts say, the new fields could yield as much as 2 million barrels of oil a day more than the entire Gulf of Mexico produces now.
    This new drilling is expected to raise U.S. production by at least 20 percent over the next five years. And within 10 years, it could help reduce oil imports by more than half, advancing a goal that has long eluded policymakers.
    "That's a significant contribution to energy security," says Ed Morse, head of commodities research at Credit Suisse.
    Oil engineers are applying what critics say is an environmentally questionable method developed in recent years to tap natural gas trapped in underground shale. They drill down and horizontally into the rock, then pump water, sand and chemicals into the hole to crack the shale and allow gas to flow up.
    Because oil molecules are sticky and larger than gas molecules, engineers thought the process wouldn't work to squeeze oil out fast enough to make it economical. But drillers learned how to increase the number of cracks in the rock and use different chemicals to free up oil at low cost.
    "We've completely transformed the natural gas industry, and I wouldn't be surprised if we transform the oil business in the next few years too," says Aubrey McClendon, chief executive of Chesapeake Energy, which is using the technique.
    Petroleum engineers first used the method in 2007 to unlock oil from a 25,000-square-mile formation under North Dakota and Montana known as the Bakken. Production there rose 50 percent in just the past year, to 458,000 barrels a day, according to Bentek Energy, an energy analysis firm.
    It was first thought that the Bakken was unique. Then drillers tapped oil in a shale formation under South Texas called the Eagle Ford. Drilling permits in the region grew 11-fold last year.
    Now newer fields are showing promise, including the Niobrara, which stretches under Wyoming, Colorado, Nebraska and Kansas; the Leonard, in New Mexico and Texas; and the Monterey, in California.
    "It's only been fleshed out over the last 12 months just how consequential this can be," says Mark Papa, chief executive of EOG Resources, the company that first used horizontal drilling to tap shale oil. "And there will be several additional plays that will come about in the next 12 to 18 months. We're not done yet."
    Environmentalists fear that fluids or wastewater from the process, called hydraulic fracturing, could pollute drinking water supplies. The Environmental Protection Agency is now studying its safety in shale drilling. The agency studied use of the process in shallower drilling operations in 2004 and found that it was safe.
    In the Bakken formation, production is rising so fast there is no space in pipelines to bring the oil to market. Instead, it is being transported to refineries by rail and truck. Drilling companies have had to erect camps to house workers.
    Unemployment in North Dakota has fallen to the lowest level in the nation, 3.8 percent less than half the national rate of 9 percent. The influx of mostly male workers to the region has left local men lamenting a lack of women. Convenience stores are struggling to keep shelves stocked with food.
    The Bakken and the Eagle Ford are each expected to ultimately produce 4 billion barrels of oil. That would make them the fifth- and sixth-biggest oil fields ever discovered in the United States. The top four are Prudhoe Bay in Alaska, Spraberry Trend in West Texas, the East Texas Oilfield and the Kuparuk Field in Alaska.
    The fields are attracting billions of dollars of investment from foreign oil giants like Royal Dutch Shell, BP and Norway's Statoil, and also from the smaller U.S. drillers who developed the new techniques like Chesapeake, EOG Resources and Occidental Petroleum.
    Last month China's state-owned oil company CNOOC agreed to pay Chesapeake $570 million for a one-third stake in a drilling project in the Niobrara. This followed a $1 billion deal in October between the two companies on a project in the Eagle Ford.
    With oil prices high and natural-gas prices low, profit margins from producing oil from shale are much higher than for gas. Also, drilling for shale oil is not dependent on high oil prices. Papa says this oil is cheaper to tap than the oil in the deep waters of the Gulf of Mexico or in Canada's oil sands.
    The country's shale oil resources aren't nearly as big as the country's shale gas resources. Drillers have unlocked decades' worth of natural gas, an abundance of supply that may keep prices low for years. U.S. shale oil on the other hand will only supply one to two percent of world consumption by 2015, not nearly enough to affect prices.
    Still, a surge in production last year from the Bakken helped U.S. oil production grow for the second year in a row, after 23 years of decline. This during a year when drilling in the Gulf of Mexico, the nation's biggest oil-producing region, was halted after the BP oil spill.
    U.S. oil production climbed steadily through most of the last century and reached a peak of 9.6 million barrels per day in 1970. The decline since was slowed by new production in Alaska in the 1980s and in the Gulf of Mexico more recently. But by 2008, production had fallen to 5 million barrels per day.
    Within five years, analysts and executives predict, the newly unlocked fields are expected to produce 1 million to 2 million barrels of oil per day, enough to boost U.S. production 20 percent to 40 percent. The U.S. Energy Information Administration estimates production will grow a more modest 500,000 barrels per day.
    By 2020, oil imports could be slashed by as much as 60 percent, according to Credit Suisse's Morse, who is counting on Gulf oil production to rise and on U.S. gasoline demand to fall.
    At today's oil prices of roughly $90 per barrel, slashing imports that much would save the U.S. $175 billion a year. Last year, when oil averaged $78 per barrel, the U.S. sent $260 billion overseas for crude, accounting for nearly half the country's $500 billion trade deficit.
    "We have redefined how to look for oil and gas," says Rehan Rashid, an analyst at FBR Capital Markets. "The implications are major for the nation."[/QUOTE]

    [QUOTE][B]Obama Administration Found in Contempt of Court for Gulf Oil Drilling Ban[/B]

    The Obama administration has been found in contempt of court for continuing the Gulf oil drilling moratorium months after a federal judge struck it down. Judge Martin Feldman of
    New Orleans is signaling that he really meant it.

    The moratorium was originally imposed as a result of the BP oil leak disaster.

    According to Bloomberg:

    "Feldman overturned the initial ban as overly broad on June 22, after the offshore-drilling industry and Gulf Coast political and business leaders challenged it. U.S. Interior Secretary Kenneth Salazar said later that day that he would 'issue a new order in the coming days that eliminates any doubt that a moratorium is needed, appropriate, and within our authorities.'

    "In July, Salazar instituted a second drilling moratorium that was also challenged by an industry lawsuit claiming the ban was harming the Gulf Coast economy, which is heavily dependent on deepwater drilling activities. That ban was rescinded in October, before Feldman could rule on its validity.

    "Feldman later ruled that enhanced drilling safety rules Salazar imposed to permit companies to resume offshore exploration violated federal law, and he struck down those as well. Opponents of those rules complained to Feldman that regulators were continuing to block the resumption of drilling after Feldman's rulings."

    Judge Feldman was quite direct in his ruling, He said that the Interior Department acted with "determined disregard" of his ruling by lifting the original moratorium and then imposing a new one.

    "Each step the government took following the court's imposition of a preliminary injunction showcases its defiance...Such dismissive conduct, viewed in tandem with the re-imposition of a second blanket and substantively identical moratorium, and in light of the national importance of this case, provide this court with clear and convincing evidence of the government's contempt"[/QUOTE]

    more at link....

    [url]http://www.associatedcontent.com/article/7716212/obama_administration_found_in_contempt.html[/url]

  11. #11
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    [QUOTE=Winstonbiggs;3955413]The energy market is more competitive today then ever. Thinking that Oil is going to 200 dollars a barrell because oil reserves are going down and energy demands are growing isn't taking into account falling natural gas prices, increased nuclear capacity and other alternate forms of energy which directly compete with oil.

    There is new technology that is increasing the supply of natural gas by huge multiples. Oil drilling technology is getting better, nuclear power is safer then ever, clean coal technology is evolving along with solar, wind and advanced computer science that makes energy use far more efficient.

    Nothing is static.[/QUOTE]

    there are alot of good points in that post but here's my question

    what happens to the price of OIl if whatever is happening in Egypt happens in Saudi Arabia? it's a crazy market we shouldn't have so much invested in any 1 type of energy.

    you mentioned nuclear... there are great things happening in this space. rather than big reactors why not alot of small ones... like the ones in nuclear subs

    [url]http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/10385853[/url]
    [url]http://www.nextenergynews.com/news1/next-energy-news-toshiba-micro-nuclear-12.17b.html[/url]
    Last edited by bitonti; 02-09-2011 at 07:38 PM.

  12. #12
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    [QUOTE=bitonti;3955779]there are alot of good points in that post but here's my question

    what happens to the price of OIl if whatever is happening in Egypt happens in Saudi Arabia? it's a crazy market we shouldn't have so much invested in any 1 type of energy.

    you mentioned nuclear... there are great things happening in this space. rather than big reactors why not alot of small ones... like the ones in nuclear subs

    [url]http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/10385853[/url]
    [url]http://www.nextenergynews.com/news1/next-energy-news-toshiba-micro-nuclear-12.17b.html[/url][/QUOTE]

    No question a massive disruption in supply will impact prices short term but long term diversity coupled with new technology and innovation makes for a more competitive market not a less competitive market.

    The oil doom and gloom is alot about speculation not fundementals. A btu is a btu.

  13. #13
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    [QUOTE=PlumberKhan;3955292]In Long Island? :confused:[/QUOTE]

    No, corner of 23rd and Madison. I post from work sometimes (but don't tell southparkcpa) :D

  14. #14
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    Electric cars mean we have to produce more power. Wow being stuck in a electric car at 10 below. No juice in sight!

  15. #15
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    [QUOTE=Winstonbiggs;3956152]
    The oil doom and gloom is alot about speculation not fundementals. A btu is a btu.[/QUOTE]

    speculation is fundamentals.

    If the market (which is efficient) determines the price of any good should be higher (or lower), that price change tells the producers what they need to do for the coming year. It's a communication forum for supply and demand which is the fundamental of any economy.

    imagine a cotton farmer finds out that cotton futures used to be 5 dollars a bushel now they are 15 dollars a bushel. He can make arrangements to plant more cotton.

    Oil works similarly in that the price dictates what technology is cost effective to use in extraction. However oil producers cannot "plant" more oil so that's why people hate oil speculators.

    Politicians want everything to be stable all the time (1 dollar gas forever!) but life doesn't work that way.

  16. #16
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    [QUOTE=Winstonbiggs;3956152]No question a massive disruption in supply will impact prices short term but long term diversity coupled with new technology and innovation makes for a more competitive market not a less competitive market.

    [B]The oil doom and gloom is alot about speculation not fundementals. A btu is a btu[/B].[/QUOTE]

    absolutely....

  17. #17
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    Where do we get the money? This country is almost broke! Trillions in debt and Obama wants to spend Billions on high speed trains. Amtrak? Another huge mistake!

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    [QUOTE=MnJetFan;3956360]Where do we get the money? This country is almost broke! Trillions in debt and Obama wants to spend Billions on high speed trains. Amtrak? Another huge mistake![/QUOTE]

    We spend $30bn a year in foreign aid. Screw it. Lets stop payments for 5 years, use that money to buy every American an electric car, a PSL of their choice, and 2 round trip tickets to Vegas. I should run for President. Easy stuff.

  19. #19
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    Fine by me! Pull our troops from the Middle East especially Saudi Arabia it will Osama bin Laden happy.

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