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Thread: Divided government

  1. #1
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    Divided government

    I remember many of the conservatives on this board talking about a divided government before the 2008 election. The argument against Obama was giving Democrats the House, Senate, and the White House. Republicans already have the House back, they are heavy favorites to take the Senate in 2012, I guess I can assume those same people will be voting for Obama.

    Paulie, I specifically remember you carrying that mantle. You going to pull the lever for Obama and Menendez's Republican opponent or Menendez and Obama's Republican opponent. If you really like divided government, you can't vote against Obama and Menendez.

    Last edited by Tyler Durden; 03-16-2011 at 07:34 PM.

  2. #2
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    I do think a divided government can be beneficial. When Clinton moved to the middle in his second term he was able to compromise on a lot of issues and inspired Republicans to come to the middle to meet him on other issues. If you have the right type of leader, a divided government could be helpful.

    That being said, I seriously doubt the Republicans are going to win the Senate in 2012. I just don't see it happening. Even here in NJ -- who could run against Menendez and win? Tom Kean Jr. already tried that, and he's got the personality of a 2x4. I cannot think of any other Republican in NJ who would have a shot at winning the Senate seat.

    So, really, there's nothing to worry about. There will either be a Democratic President and Senate with a Republican House, or a Republican President and House with a Democratic Senate.

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    Quote Originally Posted by pauliec View Post
    I do think a divided government can be beneficial. When Clinton moved to the middle in his second term he was able to compromise on a lot of issues and inspired Republicans to come to the middle to meet him on other issues. If you have the right type of leader, a divided government could be helpful.

    That being said, I seriously doubt the Republicans are going to win the Senate in 2012. I just don't see it happening. Even here in NJ -- who could run against Menendez and win? Tom Kean Jr. already tried that, and he's got the personality of a 2x4. I cannot think of any other Republican in NJ who would have a shot at winning the Senate seat.

    So, really, there's nothing to worry about. There will either be a Democratic President and Senate with a Republican House, or a Republican President and House with a Democratic Senate.
    GOP won't win the NJ seat, but they are heavy favorites to take back the Senate. It's currently 51-47 in favor of the Dems. 23 Democratic seats are going to be contested in 2012, only 10 Republican seats.

    Seats that will stay in the Dems hands:
    California (Feinstein)
    Delaware (Carper)
    Hawaii (Akaka*)
    Maryland (Cardin)
    Minnesota (Klobuchar)
    New Jersey (Menendez)
    New York (Gillibrand)
    Rhode Island (Whitehouse)
    Vermont (Sanders)
    Wisconsin (Kohl)

    Lean towards staying in Dems hands
    Connecticut (Lieberman*)
    Michigan (Stabenow)
    Pennsylvania (Casey)
    Washington (Cantwell)
    Brown (Ohio)

    Seats that will stay in GOP hands:
    Arizona (Kyl*)
    Texas (Hutchison*)
    Indiana (Lugar*)
    Mississippi (Wicker)
    Tennessee (Corker)
    Utah (Hatch*)
    Wyoming (Barrasso)

    Lean towards staying in GOP hands
    Massachusets (Brown*)
    Nevada (Ensign*)
    Maine (Snowe*)

    Seat that will likely flip parties
    North Dakota (Conrad*) [flips to the GOP]

    Toss ups
    Montana (Tester)
    Florida (Nelson)
    Missouri (McCaskill)
    Nebraska (Nelson)
    New Mexico (Bingaman*)
    Virginia (Webb*)
    Wes Virginia (Manchin)

    In all there are about 15 seats that will be heavily contested, 12 of them are currently Dems. GOP only has to win 4 of those to take over the Senate. So they will be favorites, in this current climate.

    All the seats with the (*) next to them are likely to be primaried or are retiring, unlikely any of them, other than ND and the one's in the toss up section will flip parties unless the candidate is Christine O'Donnell or Sharron Angle. (Seriously, Mike Castle would of crushed Chris Coons in Delaware, and Harry Reid had no business winning re-election, anyone but Sharron Angle would of beat him, Republicans really screwed that up)
    Last edited by Tyler Durden; 03-16-2011 at 10:27 PM.

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    Normally, I might agree, but Obama is so horrendously bad, that 2012 will be different.

    If anything, the "division" will be Tea Party vs corrupt career politicians.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Tyler Durden View Post
    Lean towards staying in GOP hands
    Massachusets (Brown*)
    Nevada (Ensign*)
    Maine (Snowe*)
    I dont see how these are GOP leans. Mass is a huge D state, despite Scott Brown and Mitt Romney they vote for D unless the candidate is charismatic. Maine Republicans are almost democrats they are moderate and very easily could get a democrat elected up there. Nevada is tricky but all the demographics are skewing more D... these are more like toss ups than leans, JMO.

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    Virginia (Webb*)
    Bank on this one going (R).

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    Quote Originally Posted by Green Jets & Ham View Post
    I want to crush liberalism and relegate it to the ash-heap of history
    can't stop progress

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    Quote Originally Posted by bitonti View Post
    I dont see how these are GOP leans. Mass is a huge D state, despite Scott Brown and Mitt Romney they vote for D unless the candidate is charismatic. Maine Republicans are almost democrats they are moderate and very easily could get a democrat elected up there. Nevada is tricky but all the demographics are skewing more D... these are more like toss ups than leans, JMO.
    If Brown wins his primary fight (big if) I don't think there are any Democrats in Mass that can beat him. We'll see. Until I see a good candidate, I can't think of any, I still lean towards staying in the GOP hands.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Warfish View Post
    Bank on this one going (R).
    Looks like Kaine will be running, he's a solid candidate and has been polling real well in match-ups. Dems want to win Virginia and North Carolina again in 2012, notice Charlotte being the location for the DNCC. Surpsingly Obama is polling well in those states vs every possible Republican nom. Obama wins Virginia, hard to imagine Kaine wouldn't.
    Last edited by Tyler Durden; 03-17-2011 at 11:25 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Green Jets & Ham View Post
    I wish I shared your confidence, but I still can't figure out how a Republican won that seat and its hard for me to believe he can do it again. He did it once so its possible, but I still don't know how that happened.
    Bad Democratic candidate. And they still haven't come up with a good one. Massachusetts is amazingly thin on upcoming Democrats, like Scott Brown was for the GOP. State is full of old farts who have been around forever.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Tyler Durden View Post
    Looks like Kaine will be running, he's a solid candidate and has been polling real well in match-ups. Dems want to win Virginia and North Carolina again in 2012, notice Charlotte being the location for the DNCC. Surpsingly Obama is polling well in those states vs every possible Republican nom. Obama wins Virginia, hard to imagine Kaine wouldn't.
    He won't.

    And he won't.

    I'm still predicting an Obama 2nd term (easily, tbh) and only modest (R) gains elsewhere in 2012. But VA will be a (overall) light Red state again in 2012.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Warfish View Post
    He won't.

    And he won't.

    I'm still predicting an Obama 2nd term (easily, tbh) and only modest (R) gains elsewhere in 2012. But VA will be a (overall) light Red state again in 2012.
    I think you are a little too confident. Virginia isn't as red as it use to be. Obama won it pretty easily in 2008. Tim Kaine has never lost an election. He's a strong candidate. Richmond City Counsil, Mayor of Richmond, Lieutenant Governor, and Governor.
    Last edited by Tyler Durden; 03-17-2011 at 11:39 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Tyler Durden View Post
    I think you are a little too confident. Virginia isn't as red as it use to be. Obama won it pretty easily in 2008.
    Virginia is.

    NORTHERN Virginia is not.

    The changing demographics or NoVA is what drove Obama in 2008 (and to a lesser degree, the Norfolk area).

    The question will be how heavily does the Blue NoVA/Norfolks vote turn out, vs. the rest of the State, 4 years into an Obama admin. that hasn't (sorry) lived up to expectations.

    It's not confidence (won't help or hurt me either way), just my opinion on my State.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Warfish View Post
    Virginia is.

    NORTHERN Virginia is not.

    The changing demographics or NoVA is what drove Obama in 2008 (and to a lesser degree, the Norfolk area).

    The question will be how heavily does the Blue NoVA/Norfolks vote turn out, vs. the rest of the State, 4 years into an Obama admin. that hasn't (sorry) lived up to expectations.

    It's not confidence (won't help or hurt me either way), just my opinion on my State.
    You're right, turn out is huge, which is why I have still have it as a tossup. Dems rely on Northern Virginians to show up at the polls, and unless you are Sarah Palin, I believe that's still counts as Virginia.

    And the DNC knows this, which again, is why DNCC will be a short drive to Charlotte.
    Last edited by Tyler Durden; 03-17-2011 at 11:46 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Tyler Durden View Post
    You're right, turn out is huge, which is why I have still have it as a tossup. Dems rely on Northern Virginians to show up at the polls, and unless you are Sarah Palin, I believe that's still counts as Virginia.
    By the way Ty, two things.

    Happy St. Paddys Day.

    And don't think I didn't notice yiur choice not to answer my two specific and direct questions in yesterdays DREAM Act thread.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Warfish View Post
    By the way Ty, two things.

    Happy St. Paddys Day.

    And don't think I didn't notice yiur choice not to answer my two specific and direct questions in yesterdays DREAM Act thread.
    Thank you, and I answered at least one of your questions, bout drunk driver.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Green Jets & Ham View Post
    I wish I shared your confidence, but I still can't figure out how a Republican won that seat and its hard for me to believe he can do it again. He did it once so its possible, but I still don't know how that happened.
    Mar 22 2011
    Brown Statement On Budget Negotiations & Planned Parenthood

    WASHINGTON, DC—Today, U.S. Senator Scott Brown (R-MA) issued the following statement on the budget negotiations relating to Planned Parenthood:

    "I support family planning and health services for women. Given our severe budget problems, I don't believe any area of the budget is completely immune from cuts. However, the proposal to eliminate all funding for family planning goes too far. As we continue with our budget negotiations, I hope we can find a compromise that is reasonable and appropriate."
    http://scottbrown.senate.gov/public/...ned-parenthood

    Again, here is why he could win in a general election in Mass. He's not very conservative. His problem may be a primary, though I don't know if anyone has said they will challenged him.

    But this could be the Democratic challenger.

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/art...or_109305.html
    Last edited by Tyler Durden; 03-22-2011 at 06:23 PM.

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