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Thread: what about Allen Bailey for 5-tech?

  1. #1

    what about Allen Bailey for 5-tech?

    OK so hear me out on this one... I know where Bailey is traditionally valued... and it's not at 30 overall.

    But here's my case:

    1) he's got top measurables... like really rare top 10 type athlete.

    The dude waldo breaks it down and Bailey's workout numbers are unbelievable for a 3-4 DE. These are actually better numbers, in many ways, than the "big" prospects like Fairley, Wilkenson, Dareus... all of em except J.J. Watt.



    http://www.footballsfuture.com/phpBB...c.php?t=440676

    if we look at that grid closely... his "superior prospects" these guys tend to go in the 15-40 range... and they all tend to be starters or better (only the Purdue guy got hurt).

    2) He's got actually very good pass rush production. 18 career sacks in 4 years (no redshirt) is top notch for a DE/DT type of player. It's not Von Miller with 37 sacks but it's also not Phil Taylor with 2. again, its a better total than Fairley, Dareus etc.

    http://web1.ncaa.org/mfb/playerDetai...=415&player=57

    3) He comes from Miami... a great football factory. Tanny doesn't want to take another player from Boise State type of mid major. He wants a football factory this year. any way you slice it, Miami a superior school for making NFL players.

    4) on the down side, he's got unremarkable film at times. I've seen this player up close and yes he's got trouble getting off of blocks. He doesn't look all that special. But in a gap clogging 3-4 front that can be an asset.

    5) but because of that unremarkable film, he will almost certainly be there at 30. This is the type of player the Pats could take at 33 and everyone would say what a great pick it was. He probably has 3rd round film. But he's got top 10 athleticism, split the difference he ends up in the 30-45 range. No way he drops out of the 3rd round.

    So yeah there's pluses and minuses im just throwing this out to the board. They pick at 30, not 3, they aren't gonna get an elite athlete at that slot... maybe they could get a high motor/ok athlete guy like Ryan kerrigan or Brooks Reed but they could go in a different direction, get a top athlete if they draft Allen Bailey, maybe coach him up... what do you think?
    Last edited by bitonti; 03-24-2011 at 11:11 AM.

  2. #2
    I think you are falling into a trap of valuing times and measurables far too much. Don't blame you because I've done it before as well. I recall 1 year being more into it than others, and I ended up being pretty wrong on a lot of players. Either way, lesson learned.

    Bailey is garbage in games... He's as much like Gholston as anyone I can think of. I hate to use that comparison because a couple of the dopes on the main board like to throw that name out there concerning anyone that they just don't like. But in this case it fits. Bailey is entirely too content remaining on the periphery of plays. Very rarely imposes his will, and that simply isnt' good enough in the NFL. There is always the small chance that a coach can strike a nerve with him, but generally speaking that doesn't happen. He has good strength at the point. Doesn't put offensive linemen where he wants to, but rarely gets steamrolled. Not enough speed to rush the edge from the outside and not enough pure quickness to rush effectively from the inside. Basically he severely lacks the want-to to impose his will on a play or game. Much like Gholston in that regard.

  3. #3
    Quote Originally Posted by jetsfan1983 View Post
    I think you are falling into a trap of valuing times and measurables far too much.
    I agree that's why he hasn't even been considered seriously...for a while... maybe before the season people talked about him as a 1st rounder. But he has 1st round work-out.

    my rebuttal is that the Jets aren't picking at 6. they are picking at 30.

    A gholston-like gamble at 30 might be more palatable at that point in the round.

    If we are looking for a high motor, high athletic guy, who's a sure fire pro bowler, that players goes 25 slots higher, where JJ Watt is gonna go... actually we dont know for sure who will be the "sure thing" it is all a gamble.

    just throwing it out there, I think they could do a lot worse than this guy.

  4. #4
    i think if bailey free falls to the end of the 3rd round, that would be a nice pick for the jets there. ideally the jets would already have picked up a DE in the first round, and to come away with, say, heyward and bailey as your first 2 picks, and give bailey to rex to whip into shape, that could reshape the d-line.

  5. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by bitonti View Post
    I agree that's why he hasn't even been considered seriously...for a while... maybe before the season people talked about him as a 1st rounder. But he has 1st round work-out.

    my rebuttal is that the Jets aren't picking at 6. they are picking at 30.

    A gholston-like gamble at 30 might be more palatable at that point in the round.

    If we are looking for a high motor, high athletic guy, who's a sure fire pro bowler, that players goes 25 slots higher, where JJ Watt is gonna go... actually we dont know for sure who will be the "sure thing" it is all a gamble.

    just throwing it out there, I think they could do a lot worse than this guy.
    I don't mind considering him, because I try to build up a best case scenario in my mind and he could be pretty good. Very strong, dedicated in that regard, just too much like Gholston in that he doesn't want to make an impact.

    I'd take him later on with the hope that Rex and company can light a fire, but that is a tough thing to bank on. Wouldn't take him in the 3rd although 4th I can buy it.

  6. #6
    Those Waldo breakdowns make for some very interesting reads. Sure it is all about the numbers but there is some surprising consistency in this data.

    I see what you are saying about Bailey. I was looking through Waldo's info for 3-4 DEs and OLBs earlier in the week and came to the same conclusion: this could be another Gholston BUT we would be using the 30th pick of the first round not the 6th. That is a big difference.

    However I find it doubtful that Bailey goes in first. Definitely can see him going to the Pats somewhere in round 2 though.

  7. #7
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    Bailey is going to be one of the man Miami guys from the recent coaching regimes that underperformed in college yet goes on to be a tremendous NFL player....Marcus Van Dyke as well and Leonard Hankerson to a certain extend...

    the UM program has done a 180 from its glory days of putting 5 and 6 guys in the first round...recruiting got easy for them and the coaches got lazy...

  8. #8
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    He very clearly needs a lot of work, but I can certainly see him becoming a very good player in the NFL.

    I'm not sure I could really vouch for him at 30, but I would absolutely support the pick if Rex thinks he sees a stud there.

    Keep in mind, he hasn't always been a DE. He came to Miami as a LB and just kept growing, so he has a lot to learn about fighting off offensive linemen, and apparently he wasn't getting top level coaching to help him make that transition.

  9. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by jetsfan1983 View Post
    I think you are falling into a trap of valuing times and measurables far too much. Don't blame you because I've done it before as well. I recall 1 year being more into it than others, and I ended up being pretty wrong on a lot of players. Either way, lesson learned.

    Bailey is garbage in games... He's as much like Gholston as anyone I can think of. I hate to use that comparison because a couple of the dopes on the main board like to throw that name out there concerning anyone that they just don't like. But in this case it fits. Bailey is entirely too content remaining on the periphery of plays. Very rarely imposes his will, and that simply isnt' good enough in the NFL. There is always the small chance that a coach can strike a nerve with him, but generally speaking that doesn't happen. He has good strength at the point. Doesn't put offensive linemen where he wants to, but rarely gets steamrolled. Not enough speed to rush the edge from the outside and not enough pure quickness to rush effectively from the inside. Basically he severely lacks the want-to to impose his will on a play or game. Much like Gholston in that regard.
    +1

    He's also got a few other things working against him:

    - I'm pretty sure the town he was raised in was located in a swamp. NY is a loud town and the Jets are a loud team...Minor but there.

    - Despite the workout numbers he's not all that tall or heavy for the position...which instantly makes it harder to buy him as a first rounder.

    - He's more known for his workout numbers than his on the field play...I realize this could be said about certain guys...Vernon Davis for example...but in college Vernon Davis would give you a "holy sh*t, did he really just do that?" moment...even if it wasn't every other play...never got that from Bailey...that's basically reiterating what you just said but w/e bro.

  10. #10
    this is just 1 source, but espn has bailey as the 50th best prospect. the guy isn't a consideration in the first round. why would the jets pick this guy over someone like clayborn, heyward or taylor, guys who have proven their worth on the field and have upside in the pros? bailey is a guy you take if you have 2 3rd round picks.

  11. #11
    Quote Originally Posted by augustiniak View Post
    why would the jets pick this guy over someone like clayborn, heyward or taylor, guys who have proven their worth on the field and have upside in the pros?
    Allen Bailey has more career sacks than all 3 of those players and he worked out better than all of those players. Does that answer the question why?

    I think people are undervaluing him.

    He's probably a true 2nd round prospect but he's got 1st round measurable and production.

  12. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by bitonti View Post
    Allen Bailey has more career sacks than all 3 of those players and he worked out better than all of those players. Does that answer the question why?

    I think people are undervaluing him.

    He's probably a true 2nd round prospect but he's got 1st round measurable and production.
    gholston probably had more sacks than all of them too.

  13. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by augustiniak View Post
    gholston probably had more sacks than all of them too.
    this is the root of the issue

    The Jets are looking for the "anti gholston" and I understand that

    2 points on Gholston:

    1) if Gholston was a 30 pick not a 6 pick he wouldn't be considered a huge failure.

    2) 4-3 DE to 3-4 OLB conversion is very risky I don't care if the player is Ryan Kerrigan or Brooks Reed it's a tricky conversion.

    to be clear- not saying draft Bailey and stand him up (altho he's such a sick athlete, it's an option).

    And certainly not saying he's amazing sure fire risk free pick.

    Im wondering why not play him across from Devito who has similar measurables, with Pouha in between.

  14. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by bitonti View Post
    Allen Bailey has more career sacks than all 3 of those players and he worked out better than all of those players. Does that answer the question why?

    I think people are undervaluing him.

    He's probably a true 2nd round prospect but he's got 1st round measurable and production.
    Bit come on man, no way I take him over Heyward. From all accounts he got dominated at the senior bowl. I'd be okay taking him if the clear cut better guys are taken already.

  15. #15
    I seem to be one of the few that really like Bailey. Guys like him are your typical 3-4 DL that goes late in the draft. I think he will end up being the 3rd best 3-4 DL in this draft. Guys like Heyward and Jordan are just way too high IMO. I would love to see him fall to us in the 3rd. If we resign Jenkins I do not think our front 3 will be the priority in this draft. Jenkins if healthy will still be a good NT and we still have Pouha who is a good option as well. I am hoping to see Ellis back and I also still have hopes for Gilbert. Gilbert just didn't fit the Bears D but at 24 I think he can still turn into a good 3-4 DE. All the same I wouldn't mind seeing him and Bailey maturing in our roaster.

  16. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by bitonti View Post
    this is the root of the issue

    The Jets are looking for the "anti gholston" and I understand that

    2 points on Gholston:

    1) if Gholston was a 30 pick not a 6 pick he wouldn't be considered a huge failure.

    2) 4-3 DE to 3-4 OLB conversion is very risky I don't care if the player is Ryan Kerrigan or Brooks Reed it's a tricky conversion.

    to be clear- not saying draft Bailey and stand him up (altho he's such a sick athlete, it's an option).

    And certainly not saying he's amazing sure fire risk free pick.

    Im wondering why not play him across from Devito who has similar measurables, with Pouha in between.
    i think if gholston were taken at #30 he would still be considered a huge failure. any first round pick should be able to achieve more than he did. lots of guys 'bust' as defined as not living up to first round status. but how many show no justification they belong in the nfl at all?

  17. #17
    Hell the boar hunter was a huge failure and was a dumb 3rd round pick. Gholston certainly would have been a huge bust failure and if he was not a 1st round pick with lots of cap implications he would have been gone about 2 years sooner than he was.

    I still think that someone better than Bailey will be there for the Jets in 1. Perhaps if they trade down in the 2nd.

  18. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by bitonti View Post
    this is the root of the issue

    The Jets are looking for the "anti gholston" and I understand that

    2 points on Gholston:

    1) if Gholston was a 30 pick not a 6 pick he wouldn't be considered a huge failure.

    2) 4-3 DE to 3-4 OLB conversion is very risky I don't care if the player is Ryan Kerrigan or Brooks Reed it's a tricky conversion.

    to be clear- not saying draft Bailey and stand him up (altho he's such a sick athlete, it's an option).

    And certainly not saying he's amazing sure fire risk free pick.

    Im wondering why not play him across from Devito who has similar measurables, with Pouha in between.
    Because their primary Job is to control the OL in this defense and Let the Blitzers do they thing.Why on Earth would you spend a low end 1st round pick on this type of player when you can get the same player after the draft.
    Isn't that how we got Devito who you said is the same player.
    The 1st round is for game changers.

  19. #19
    Quote Originally Posted by bitonti View Post
    this is the root of the issue

    The Jets are looking for the "anti gholston" and I understand that

    2 points on Gholston:

    1) if Gholston was a 30 pick not a 6 pick he wouldn't be considered a huge failure.

    2) 4-3 DE to 3-4 OLB conversion is very risky I don't care if the player is Ryan Kerrigan or Brooks Reed it's a tricky conversion.

    to be clear- not saying draft Bailey and stand him up (altho he's such a sick athlete, it's an option).

    And certainly not saying he's amazing sure fire risk free pick.

    Im wondering why not play him across from Devito who has similar measurables, with Pouha in between.

    Gholston playing OLB is not why hes a bust, if he was drafted by a 4-3 team he would be a bust.

  20. #20
    Quote Originally Posted by Come Back to NY View Post
    Bailey is going to be one of the man Miami guys from the recent coaching regimes that underperformed in college yet goes on to be a tremendous NFL player....Marcus Van Dyke as well and Leonard Hankerson to a certain extend...

    the UM program has done a 180 from its glory days of putting 5 and 6 guys in the first round...recruiting got easy for them and the coaches got lazy...
    What do you see from Bailey on tape?

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