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Thread: Mike Mayock's new Top 32

  1. #1
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    Mike Mayock's new Top 32

    http://www.nfl.com/draft/story/09000...faces-included

    Let's start out by making one thing clear: This is not a mock draft. This is a list of the best 32 players in the 2011 NFL Draft.

    The list includes two new players from the last edition. You'll see that 19 of my 32 players are defensive players, 14 of them being defensive linemen. They won't be drafted that way in the first round, but it should still be focused heavily on defense. However, these are the prospects I'll bang the table for, and here's why:

    1. Marcell Dareus*, DT, Alabama
    He is my favorite player in the country this year, and that hasn't changed. He has tremendous foot speed for a player his size. He can play the nose, the three-technique and showed that he can play the five-technique. From my perspective, I don't think he can possibly get past Denver at No. 2.

    2. Von Miller, OLB, Texas A&M
    He's a special guy off the edge and reminds me an awful lot of DeMarcus Ware that way. However, he's not as big, so therefore won't generate quite as much power.

    3. Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU
    A lot of people think he might be the best player in this draft, and he might be. He has the return skills of a man 40 pounds smaller than he is. He has the ability to move, to press, to play off. He's a little tight in the hips, but I don't care. He's a great football player.

    4. A.J. Green*, WR, Georgia
    Oh my goodness. If you have any questions about this kid, after being suspended the first four games last season, he came out in week five against two future NFL cornerbacks in the Colorado game and had seven catches for 119 yards and two touchdowns. That includes one of the best back-of-the-shoulder catches I've ever seen in my life.

    5. Blaine Gabbert*, QB, Missouri
    He's my No. 1 quarterback. He comes out of a spread offense, and his footwork needs to improve, but he has all the rest. He's athletic, has a big arm, loves the game of football, has anticipation to throw into small windows, and the accuracy to back it up. He could be the first guy off the board.

    6. Robert Quinn*, DE, North Carolina
    From a measurable perspective, I think Quinn has rare and elite skills for a defensive end in the NFL. To me, the bottom line is that what he does as well, or better, than anyone in the last couple of years is he has an ability to get up the field and get to the quarterback. I see him primarily as a 4-3 defensive end. Even in a 3-4 scheme, he's a rush linebacker in which he almost exclusively rushes the quarterback. I'm always worried about one-year wonders, but he's the one I would bet on this year.

    7. Julio Jones, WR, Alabama
    He's a warrior. He ran a 4.39-second 40-yard dash at the NFL Scouting Combine, but on tape I think he plays more like a 4.5 guy. That's what I think he plays at, and that's fine. His throwing radius, ability to run and ability to catch are phenomenal.

    8. Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn
    To me, he's a lightning rod. I was at his pro day workout, and from a foot-speed perspective, it doesn't get much better than what he can do. He ran through the bag drills, and it was ridiculous. However, he's a boom-or-bust guy. Right now, I have him here, but he's got more talent than that.

    9. Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska
    This kid is a gifted cornerback who can play press and can play off. Watch the game tape against Oklahoma State and Justin Blackmon, maybe the best one or two receivers in college last season, because there are some misnomers. Amukamara played a lot better than people give him credit for.

    10. Cameron Jordan, DE, California
    He's a good football player to start with, but has moved up because of scheme-versatility. He has a great motor, long arms, is stout against the run, and can push the pocket against the pass. He played the five-technique at Cal, and I know all the 3-4 teams really like him. What's interesting is the 4-3 teams are accepting him as a base end. Because of all that, he won't fall far. His stock is on the rise.

    11. Anthony Castonzo, OL, Boston College
    I really believe he or (Tyron) Smith are the first tackle off the board. Castonzo is a tough guy in the run game. He has great feet as a former tight end. I love his upside, and he had a great week of Senior Bowl practice, although he didn't play quite as well in the game.

    12. J.J. Watt*, DE, Wisconsin
    I believe this kid is the real deal. He's another prototype of a five-technique, a defensive end in a 3-4 scheme. If you don't like him, put the TCU game tape on. The numbers weren't big, but the kid dominated.

    13. Tyron Smith*, OT, USC
    He played on the right side and came out as a junior and has the most potential of any tackle in the draft.

    14. Aldon Smith*, DE, Missouri
    This young man has so much potential, it's scary. Put the 2009 game tape on against Russell Okung and Danny Watkins, and you'll get a better view of what he can do. He played through a lot of pain last season.

    15. Da'Quan Bowers*, DE, Clemson
    If teams liked him on tape, they will still like him after his pro day, despite questions about his knee. On tape, he's an explosive defensive end. His workout forced teams to do a medical re-check. The bottom line for me is the tape, and Bowers has some significant tape. He has top-10 ability but is a one-year wonder.

    16. Cam Newton*, QB, Auburn
    For me it's always been about the kid, not the quarterback. I buy into Newton the quarterback. Mechanically, he's so much better than Tim Tebow or Vince Young, both first-round picks. I've never been positive that football was critical in his life, but I'm starting to buy into the fact he cares. My only concern is after you pay him millions, will he still want to be the best quarterback in football?

    17. Mark Ingram*, RB, Alabama
    This is one of the angriest runners I've ever seen. He's a three-down back. This is a kid who can play 16 games and still want to play more. He can pass protect, catch the football, and has tremendous balance and vision.

    18. Ryan Kerrigan, DE, Purdue
    Had 33 sacks, 14 forced fumbles. With this kid, you know what you're getting. You know what your floor is, and he might not have the same upside as some of these other kids. But I think he can play defensive end or stand up and be an outside linebacker.

    19. Corey Liuget*, DT, Illinois
    He is much better on tape than I initially expected. There's no bad tape on him. You can put him in the middle of a 4-3 front. He's disruptive, quick and tough. Some of the 3-4 teams like him enough to look at him as a five-technique, which I don't think is his best position. He's steadily climbing up boards.

    20. Gabe Carimi, OL, Wisconsin
    I think the kid is a plug-and-play right tackle. Throw him in there, and he's a starter on day one. And he's a starter for the next 10 years. He's got a little attitude, and there's something tough about him. He's a good football player.

    21. Mike Pouncey, OL, Florida
    He's like his brother Maurkice of the Steelers in that you can "plug and play" him. Somewhere between 17-25 is where a team will look at its board and will need a good interior lineman. He's not a wonderful athlete, but is a wonderful football player. I like him more at guard than center.

    22. Nate Solder, OL, Colorado
    Solder has a wonderful skill set, but he needs to get stronger and have more consistent technique. He reminds me of D'Brickashaw Ferguson in that he's a little bit underpowered, has great feet, and an awful lot of upside. That's value right there.

    23. Jimmy Smith*, DB, Colorado
    He's a freakish athlete with significant off-the-field concerns. But there's a huge drop-off at cornerback after Peterson, Amukamara and Smith. He's long and physical, but he's too inconsistent, which is the reason he isn't higher up on the board.

    24. Marvin Austin*, DT, North Carolina
    From the time he started his season at the East-West Shrine Game, he's done a great job of rehabbing his image. He was the best player on the field in that game and had great numbers at the combine. You could see the power, explosion and great feet at his pro day. I'll be very surprised if he doesn't go somewhere between 20-32. I really believe he's too good of a football player to fall out of the first round.

    25. Jake Locker, QB, Washington
    His drop here isn't a reflection of anything other than the fact I think he's a one- or two-year project regarding getting comfortable in a pocket system and getting enough reps to be more comfortable in the pocket. He has first-round ability. He's as accurate on the edges as any quarterback I've seen on tape. I've talked to a lot of NFL quarterback coaches who believe, over time, his pocket awareness can be corrected.

    26. Muhammad Wilkerson*, DT, Temple
    I really like Wilkerson, and I believe he's going to be a very good five-technique. He's a little bit of a developmental project, but at the end of the day someone is going to be a real good player. He reminds me of Trevor Pryce.

    27. Cam Heyward, DT, Ohio State
    If you watch the Sugar Bowl against Arkansas, you might be convinced he's a top-15 pick. He's had injuries, he's a little inconsistent, and there's a question about where you play him, but he's got a great motor. To me, he's a five-technique, the defensive end in a 3-4. Some team at the end of the first round is going to get a bargain.

    28. Akeem Ayers*, OLB, UCLA
    On tape, he's a natural edge pass rusher. He didn't perform well at the combine; ran in the 4.9 range in the 40. There are also questions about whether he can handle a complicated defense, both with his hand down or standing up. But he is a great athlete and a natural 3-4 outside linebacker.

    29. Adrian Clayborn, DE, Iowa
    Fair or not, there is concern regarding one side of his body because of Erb's Palsy, which he has had since childhood. With the depth at defensive end, he's sliding a bit with the 4-3 teams. After his strong junior year, most would have called him a top-15 pick. I say watch the tape. He's a football player. Some people around the league are concerned, and I'm told he could slide into the second round. I say he's a first-round pick, and if he goes in the low 20s, what a great football player you're going to get.

    30. Phil Taylor, DL, Baylor
    He's one of the biggest risers in this draft class. There aren't many 334-pound defensive tackles in the league with the movement skills of this kid. Before last season, I thought he was a third-round pick. He got himself in shape and started flashing and dominating as the season went on. He's had some off-the-field issues, but I don't think a guy his size and with his movement skills gets out of the first round.

    31.Derek Sherrod, OT, Mississippi St.
    Historically, it's not unusual to see five offensive tackles go in the first round. Either Sherrod or Marcus Gilbert from Florida are guys who are very solid picks who could end up in the back end of the first round.

    32. Kyle Rudolph*, TE, Notre Dame
    Someone's going to get value when they pick this guy. This guy is Rob Gronkowski. He's an inline blocker if you need him to be, but he can also get down the field, and he's a tremendous athlete.

    *Underclassman

  2. #2
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    Will be very interesting to see where the Jets go if the board falls similar to this but with Phil Taylor taken before our pick and someone else not of interest dropping to 30.

    I guess guys like Brooks Reed, Jabaal Sheard, Christian Ballard, Allen Bailey and the like could be real possibilities at 30. I just hope one of the 5 techniques or Akeem Ayers can fall to us.

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    i'm not really understanding the worry about the jets not getting a front 7 guy with the 30th pick. there's a lot of depth and a few good players will drop. just wait until there's a qb panic at the end of the round and teams are trying to trade back into the 1st. i wager the jets can trade back 10 spots and still end up with a front 7 player who's probably not much if at all worse than guys picked in the mid first round.

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    Quote Originally Posted by augustiniak View Post
    i'm not really understanding the worry about the jets not getting a front 7 guy with the 30th pick. there's a lot of depth and a few good players will drop. just wait until there's a qb panic at the end of the round and teams are trying to trade back into the 1st. i wager the jets can trade back 10 spots and still end up with a front 7 player who's probably not much if at all worse than guys picked in the mid first round.
    I'm positive this will happen. There's too many needy teams at QB and CB just for starters. I bet 2 out of 3 (Ayers, Heyward, Wilkerson) are there. 3 if you include Reed.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Paradis View Post
    I'm positive this will happen. There's too many needy teams at QB and CB just for starters. I bet 2 out of 3 (Ayers, Heyward, Wilkerson) are there. 3 if you include Reed.
    i just can't see the jets taking a DT with their first pick, unless they think the guy is a virtual lock to take jenkins' spot (ie, taylor).

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    Quote Originally Posted by augustiniak View Post
    i just can't see the jets taking a DT with their first pick, unless they think the guy is a virtual lock to take jenkins' spot (ie, taylor).
    I think it's just a matter of talent meeting the need. There's needs across the D-line and those couple guys just feel like producers. I think people give our present D-line too much credit. I know they not terrible, but if a 3-4 DEs are doing their jobs, our OLB should be getting more pressure... (yes the blame doesn't always fall on their shoulders ).

    I think Ayers is the pick, then Heyward. Or trade back and Look at Reed, Ballard, etc

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    Quote Originally Posted by Paradis View Post
    I think it's just a matter of talent meeting the need. There's needs across the D-line and those couple guys just feel like producers. I think people give our present D-line too much credit. I know they not terrible, but if a 3-4 DEs are doing their jobs, our OLB should be getting more pressure... (yes the blame doesn't always fall on their shoulders ).

    I think Ayers is the pick, then Heyward. Or trade back and Look at Reed, Ballard, etc
    i think the desire is to pick someone who can provide pass rush, whether it's a de or olb. i'm guessing that in the 3rd and/or 4th rounds, the jets believe they can find dts who are more run pluggers, even if they trade around a bit.

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    So you all think we will get the right player for us at 30? Or even better to trade down and get the right player at say 35-45 with an additional pick?

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    Quote Originally Posted by BLEED JET GREEN View Post
    So you all think we will get the right player for us at 30? Or even better to trade down and get the right player at say 35-45 with an additional pick?
    agree on my end....

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    Quote Originally Posted by Come Back to NY View Post
    agree on my end....
    Not sure which one you're agreeing with. Unless a guy like Heyward/Bowers falls to 30, you feel comfortable that there will be a guy at 45 who will be worthwhile to take when factoring in the additional pick we will get?

    Are you getting the sense that this second tier QB frenzy is truly legit - i.e. that there may be 6 QBs going in the top 45?

  11. #11
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    Just asking...Anyone remember who all the expert draft mockers (Kiper, Bunting, Mayock, Rueter, Rang) had the Jets drafting last year in the 1st?

    I'm guessing nobody had the Jets taking Wilson or Wilson falling to 29..

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    Quote Originally Posted by crasherino View Post
    Not sure which one you're agreeing with. Unless a guy like Heyward/Bowers falls to 30, you feel comfortable that there will be a guy at 45 who will be worthwhile to take when factoring in the additional pick we will get?

    Are you getting the sense that this second tier QB frenzy is truly legit - i.e. that there may be 6 QBs going in the top 45?
    1- Bowers is not falling to 30...you can forget about that....

    2- there will be three QB's taken in round one...not five as many of the forum gods have been claming....after that you could have an additional four taken by the middle of round two- one more than you ask...

    3- the question was posed 35-45....lets' go low end, 45 for a second....you are talking about guys like Jarvis Jenkins, maybe Allen Bailey still available....you could trade down further and get front seven guys like Nield/Fua/Acho and pick up a host of picks....everyone loves the first round guys yet people like Jimmy Johnson/Andy Reid/Bill Belicheck made a living working the draft, trading down and coming away with good players....would i settle for say Allen Baily @40, then a pick-up of Sione Fua at the top of three and maybe a receiver late in the 5th (Sanzenbacher) versus Heyward/Ballard/etc stand alone in the first?? absolutely...

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    Quote Originally Posted by Come Back to NY View Post
    2- there will be three QB's taken in round one...not five as many of the forum gods have been claming....after that you could have an additional four taken by the middle of round two- one more than you ask...
    I assume those 3 are Newton, Gabbert and Locker. Why exactly is Mallett so untouchable? The dude is a big time prospect with a huge arm and had a fantastic combine workout. and ya know who else had drug rumors Dan Marino.

    im not saying mallett is great but with no free agency how does he slip to rd 2?

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    Quote Originally Posted by bitonti View Post
    I assume those 3 are Newton, Gabbert and Locker. Why exactly is Mallett so untouchable? The dude is a big time prospect with a huge arm and had a fantastic combine workout. and ya know who else had drug rumors Dan Marino.

    im not saying mallett is great but with no free agency how does he slip to rd 2?
    He looks great throwing in an absolutely clean pocket. Bring even a little bit of heat and the accuracy goes down the drain. Big problem in my opinion.

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    I'd love to see us trade down and stock pile. Pick up a whole slew of new talent. We have a few glaring holes that need to be filled, this draft is supposedly very deep in D line talent, we can really get a lot more by trading down this year.

  16. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by Come Back to NY View Post
    1- Bowers is not falling to 30...you can forget about that....

    2- there will be three QB's taken in round one...not five as many of the forum gods have been claming....after that you could have an additional four taken by the middle of round two- one more than you ask...

    3- the question was posed 35-45....lets' go low end, 45 for a second....you are talking about guys like Jarvis Jenkins, maybe Allen Bailey still available....you could trade down further and get front seven guys like Nield/Fua/Acho and pick up a host of picks....everyone loves the first round guys yet people like Jimmy Johnson/Andy Reid/Bill Belicheck made a living working the draft, trading down and coming away with good players....would i settle for say Allen Baily @40, then a pick-up of Sione Fua at the top of three and maybe a receiver late in the 5th (Sanzenbacher) versus Heyward/Ballard/etc stand alone in the first?? absolutely...

    That's exactly what I was looking for - thanks.

    Edit: FWIW, McShay has a new 3 rounder that shows 4 QBs going from picks 34 - 41. Ham made this point earlier - SF is the perfect trading partner in that they really have to trade up to get one of those guys and trading up to #30 is really the place to go if they want to ensure themselves of one of those second tier QBs.

    That really is the ideal trade scenario. Not putting too much credence into McShay's mock, but he does have both Bailey and Ballard available at that point.
    Last edited by crasherino; 04-06-2011 at 03:23 PM.

  17. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by crasherino View Post
    That's exactly what I was looking for - thanks.

    Edit: FWIW, McShay has a new 3 rounder that shows 4 QBs going from picks 34 - 41. Ham made this point earlier - SF is the perfect trading partner in that they really have to trade up to get one of those guys and trading up to #30 is really the place to go if they want to ensure themselves of one of those second tier QBs.

    That really is the ideal trade scenario. Not putting too much credence into McShay's mock, but he does have both Bailey and Ballard available at that point.
    let's say the jets trade back with SF. can the jets get a 3rd round pick for that? if so i think it would be a great opportunity.

  18. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by augustiniak View Post
    let's say the jets trade back with SF. can the jets get a 3rd round pick for that? if so i think it would be a great opportunity.
    For sure. And, considering there will be several teams looking to move up, I'd think they could get more than just SF's 3rd rounder.

  19. #19
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    best bet for jets

    the best bet for the jets.is to trade up and draft ryan kerrigan d.e.I think that he has super potential to be great.

  20. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by crasherino View Post
    For sure. And, considering there will be several teams looking to move up, I'd think they could get more than just SF's 3rd rounder.
    Two things from McShay's mock....

    If ayers is on the board and we stay in the 1st round and select Taylor Ill be very upset. I just dont see him being talented enough to be selected there for a defense like ours.

    More importantly though, I think the ultimate deal would be with denver sending our #1 and #4 for #36 and #46. Its a high price for denver given the talent depth in round 2, but most of the depth is Dline and they will probably be addressing that in round 1. Plus, if elway really does not think tebow is the guy....making an aggressive move for ponder etc at #30 is not crazy at all.

    36 and 46 get us 2 real quality players....especially if things go near the way mcshay has it, and ayers is still there at 36. Then we can choose from some combination of moore/ballard/bailey/justin houston etc, or even move back again to replace a lost pick.

    Its somewhat of a dream scenario IMO, but teams have to pay to move up for QBs and Elway is a rookie GM....hopefully Tannenbaum can make it happen.

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