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Thread: Prospect Smackdown: Akeem Ayers vs. Brooks Reed vs. Justin Houston vs. Ryan Kerrigan

  1. #21
    Quote Originally Posted by bitonti View Post
    Rak is better than Reed but Rak wasn't available at 30 overall.

    It's sloppy to play the comparison game, I think Brooks is very strong compared to others in his class, like Rak. I dont think orapko is getting much stronger over those years since he's graduated... he is what he is. Gilbert is development player, Reed is good to go.

    I dont believe Brooks Reed can be "the guy" but he can be another guy and that's important. he's not Demarcus Ware but he could be Anthony Spencer. they need guys, and they aren't gonna get a star at 30.
    Orakpo wasn't available at 30 because he's an insanely better talent than Reed. He's bigger, he's stronger, he's younger, he's faster, he's quicker, he was more productive in college...

    Also, completely disagree that Reed is just good to go from the start like that. Lamarr Woodley, another guy with similar size and mobility, was a way better prospect than Reed and 1. didn't go in the first and 2. didn't dress for 3 games and didn't start any during his rookie year.

    I like Reed as a prospect but this is the filtering part of the draft process and I don't have him as a first rounder. He's maybe a 2nd rounder who might go as low as the third.

    Personally the possible DE/OLB prospects I'd use a first rounder on are (no order):

    Miller
    Quinn
    Kerrigan
    Ayers
    Smith

    Then there's the DE/DTs who can go in the first (no order):

    Fairley
    Dareus
    Bowers
    Watt
    Jordan
    Heyward
    Wilkerson
    Taylor
    Ballard
    Wilson

    If all 15 of those guys are gone...and there's actually a shot that happens...sure Reed would be my next choice for a front 7 pick. That said, by that point...if half of the picks before 30 are dedicated to all 15 of these guys then I'm sure there's way better value than Brooks Reed at another position. Yes, it is entirely possible the Jets don't draft a front 7 player with #30.

    Now trading the pick and getting to ~40 to grab Reed? It wouldn't be so bad because there's more picks to be made.
    Last edited by Much ado about Nothing; 04-10-2011 at 08:17 PM.

  2. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by bitonti View Post
    I've been meaning to give back to JI... what's a VIP membership go for... 30?

    ill do a VIP bet... loser has to buy the winner a year worth of VIP?

    Ill take Justin Houston over Ayers... better athlete more sacks ok with me.
    You got it (It might be closer to $50 though).

  3. #23
    Quote Originally Posted by Green Jets & Ham View Post
    I have to admit the thing that scares me about Reed is Gil Brandt's ranking. He has Reed in TIER 10 (91-100) of his HOT 100, that means he has Reed tabbed not even as a 2nd Rounder like muchado, but as a late 3

    I like what I've seen of Reed, but that scares me.

    FYI Ham Brandt has moved Reed to Tier 6

    http://www.nfl.com/news/story/09000d...e=HP_spotlight

    also I've asked you about Cam Newton before...

    Gil Brandt on the Panthers No 1 pick "I would take Cam Newton and I wouldn't even think twice. I think he has the ability to transform a franchise into a winner and an exciting team like Josh Freeman did down in Tampa Bay. "

    http://chat.nfl.com/front/index/1487

    so you believe him about Reed but not about Newton?

  4. #24
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    I've been mocking Newton to CAR for over a month now. The last 4 weeks have only solidified that pick. It's more than just a need for that team. CAR is devoid of character and the ability to sell their franchise to the NFL market. They need Newton to give North America a reason to watch CAR as well as to address their offensive sh*tshow.

    Reed? No thanks. They'll be other players available at 30. It's a statistically impropability to imagine Ayers, Heyward, Wilkerson, Smith, Houston, Kerrigan, Taylor all being gone leaving only Reed.

  5. #25
    Newton to Carolina makes complete sense. It's just a matter of it happening. He's the obvious choice at this point, though it was fun to ponder a few other guys. The only other guy I'd really do it with is Peterson, and that'd only be if I knew there was a rookie cap.

  6. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by bitonti View Post
    keith rivers got his jaw broke and is basically about as helpful as gholston

    if Ayers can play linebacker like Harris, that would be great, I haven't seen that.

    Why wouldn't they sign Harris? he's the 1st one they are gonna sign. Bart Scott played like crap against Pittsburgh, he's actually the weak link in the run game. he can blow up blockers but didn't do much tackling in the 1st half.
    Rivers represented what i believed the Jets need as an Ilber compliment to Harris or Scott.He's a sideline to sideline lber who played outside at USC but was better suited as an ilber in the pros.Ayers is the same player who is also what the jets need.The problem is,he would be a luxury pick with Harris and scott still on this roster.

    Ayers dosn't play like Harris,and that's why he's perfect for us.Harris is probably a better scott blowing up blockers and Ayers would be a better harris blitzing and moving sideline to sideline.

    But you already know that.

  7. #27
    Quote Originally Posted by Tinstar View Post
    Ayers would be a better harris blitzing and moving sideline to sideline.
    I'd feel better about Ayers running sideline to sideline if he actually had workout times that backed it up. He's got 2 down LB workout times.


    Paradis as for your list of names... in the mock the other day... they were all gone except Reed, Ayers & Phil Taylor. Who gets the most sacks?

  8. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by bitonti View Post
    I'd feel better about Ayers running sideline to sideline if he actually had workout times that backed it up. He's got 2 down LB workout times.


    Paradis as for your list of names... in the mock the other day... they were all gone except Reed, Ayers & Phil Taylor. Who gets the most sacks?
    Which mock was this? If Reed is truly the last one left, then sure. But it just can't happen. Thats upsurd amount of Front 7 defensive players to off the board in the 29 picks. It's just doesn't play out like that.

    Dareus
    Von Miller
    Quinn
    Fairly
    Bowers
    A. Smith
    Jordan
    Watt
    Kerrigan
    Liuget
    Wilkerson
    Houston
    Taylor
    Wilkerson
    Heyward
    Ayers
    Austin
    Reed

    I mean C'MON... (not at you, just in general).. It's not gonna happen.

    Newton
    Gabbert
    Mallet
    Locker

    Ingram

    Green
    Jones
    T. Smith

    T.Smith
    Pouncey
    Carimi
    Castonzo
    Sherrod
    Solder
    Carpenter

    Peterson
    Amukamara
    J. Smith
    A. Williams
    R. Dowling


    If all the guys that need to be gone for us to be stuck with Reed, would mean 6-7 of these guys don't get picked before us. Not gonna happen. CB is big need and so is OT.

    IF anything, i see the opposite. Teams can't count on the FA this year. QBs, OTs, CBs are gonna fly off the board. The draft is deep enough on the front 7 for team pass on DEs and LBs

    IMO

  9. #29
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    Re-reading your response i missed that Ayers was still there with Taylor and Reed. In that case, i leave it up to Rex. I'd take Taylor easily. Cause... f*cking Nose Tackles rule. Not serviceable DTs... F*cking Hoss's up there.

  10. #30
    Quote Originally Posted by bitonti View Post
    I'd feel better about Ayers running sideline to sideline if he actually had workout times that backed it up. He's got 2 down LB workout times.


    Paradis as for your list of names... in the mock the other day... they were all gone except Reed, Ayers & Phil Taylor. Who gets the most sacks?
    He's got 3 down linebacker game tape, experience, skills, size, athleticism, accomplishments, stats...but yeah...he ran in the 4.8s at combine...just throw away the sub-4.7 pro day run too. What about the things that aren't work out numbers makes him seem even remotely like a 2 down linebacker? 2 down linebacker = "Guy who can't play the pass." That doesn't sound like Ayers at all.

    Ayers is more likely to take Bryan Thomas' job as a rookie than probably anyone else we'll see at 30.
    Last edited by Much ado about Nothing; 04-11-2011 at 05:48 PM.

  11. #31
    Quote Originally Posted by Much ado about Nothing View Post
    He's got 3 down linebacker game tape, experience, skills, size, athleticism, accomplishments, stats...but yeah...he ran in the 4.8s at combine...just throw away the sub-4.7 pro day run too. What about the things that aren't work out numbers makes him seem even remotely like a 2 down linebacker? 2 down linebacker = "Guy who can't play the pass." That doesn't sound like Ayers at all.

    Ayers is more likely to take Bryan Thomas' job as a rookie than probably anyone else we'll see at 30.
    ive said before if the Jets like this player I will find a way to agree with the pick. BRyan thomas ran 4.4's coming out... Ayers tape kinda sucks. I haven't see game film where he's doing amazing things. I see alot of marginal tape on Ayers. I agree he's pro ready. What kind of pro that will be is up for debate.

  12. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by Much ado about Nothing View Post
    He's got 3 down linebacker game tape, experience, skills, size, athleticism, accomplishments, stats...but yeah...he ran in the 4.8s at combine...just throw away the sub-4.7 pro day run too. What about the things that aren't work out numbers makes him seem even remotely like a 2 down linebacker? 2 down linebacker = "Guy who can't play the pass." That doesn't sound like Ayers at all.

    Ayers is more likely to take Bryan Thomas' job as a rookie than probably anyone else we'll see at 30.
    absolutely....the guy easily moves sideline to sideline and is as fluid going backwards as he is moving forwards....all to often amatuers are concerned because players don't make highlight reel type hits or the plays that get people to jump up and down...anyone that cannot appreciate or worse, cannot pick out the little things on film, which Ayers does well on the field, doesn't understand football- plain and simple...

    you're not getting a world beater @30- on paper anyway....to draft a guy that's never played LB because he runs fast in shorts and a t-shirt at the expense of those who play in pads is completely foolish....the irony is its the same every April from the same "experts"....

    as far as your write up- i would put Reed ahead of Houston....i would not take either @30 but Houston literally scares the sh!t out of me as a 3-4OLB...

  13. #33

    I can see the appeal of Ayers

    Quote Originally Posted by Come Back to NY View Post
    absolutely....the guy easily moves sideline to sideline and is as fluid going backwards as he is moving forwards.....
    Ayers does it in the Pac 10 but he's got to get s2s quicker at NFL level.

    I want to light this player. There's alot to like. He's versatile and can cover.

    It's tough for me to get behind him cause besides the times... he's so streaky.

    There are certain games where he looks amazing and others where he's invisible. I have similar concerns about Quinn and Bailey. Streaky defenders.

    He does help at several positions, ILB, OLB, DE. And he's certainly comfortable standing up.

    if Robert Quinn, Allen Bailey and Akeem Ayers line up for the 40 who wins? Who comes in last? It's not football but the draft is about value. Ayers needs a Terrell Suggs like career to say "over look the measurables" i don't know if he's had that.

  14. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by bitonti View Post
    Ayers does it in the Pac 10 but he's got to get s2s quicker at NFL level.

    I want to light this player. There's alot to like. He's versatile and can cover.

    It's tough for me to get behind him cause besides the times... he's so streaky.

    There are certain games where he looks amazing and others where he's invisible. I have similar concerns about Quinn and Bailey. Streaky defenders.

    He does help at several positions, ILB, OLB, DE. And he's certainly comfortable standing up.

    if Robert Quinn, Allen Bailey and Akeem Ayers line up for the 40 who wins? Who comes in last? It's not football but the draft is about value. Ayers needs a Terrell Suggs like career to say "over look the measurables" i don't know if he's had that.
    lol....what conference did Brooks Reed play in again???

  15. #35
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    When did the NFL turn into a track meet?

    Let's just draft Dontay Moch at 30, since the 40 yard dash is apparently the end all, be all when evaluating a prospect.

  16. #36
    Quote Originally Posted by bitonti View Post
    ive said before if the Jets like this player I will find a way to agree with the pick. BRyan thomas ran 4.4's coming out... Ayers tape kinda sucks. I haven't see game film where he's doing amazing things. I see alot of marginal tape on Ayers. I agree he's pro ready. What kind of pro that will be is up for debate.
    1. You're clearly obsessed with workout numbers and it's clearly blinding you.

    2. Ayers' tape doesn't suck.

    3. What would qualify as amazing? We're talking about a 22 year old LB who put up 14 sacks, 6 INTs, and almost 30 TFL in college...I'm sure his lack of an amazing moment is more of you missing him than anything else.

    4. He's got the upside to be a very good, starting caliber pro on a good D.

  17. #37
    Quote Originally Posted by Much ado about Nothing View Post
    1. You're clearly obsessed with workout numbers and it's clearly blinding you.
    Every team is obsessed with work out numbers. No one's gonna get drafted on film alone. MY problem is that his numbers aren't good and his tape ranges from excellent to crap. He's all over the map. If the Jets draft him, I understand why (versatility, coverage, pass rush) I just wish either his tape was more consistent or his workouts were better. One or the other...

    If the Jets want a streaky player they can take Allen Bailey with 18 career sacks running the same 4.7 Ayers runs but at 280 not 260. everyone in the NFL is a little faster than they were in college. Brooks Reed also has more career sacks and better workout numbers than Ayers. Everyone just assumes Ayers is good cause he's been a name for a while but if 2 prospects are there and all things are equal i'd prefer the faster bigger player. If they aren't equal, He's got to prove it on production. Kerrigan has pretty good workouts but amazing production 37 sacks. Ayers got amazing highlight and terrible low lights. He's got pretty good not great production. I just don't know what to think about this player. You mention upside, I think that's the problem. If he's really running a 4.7 he doesn't have physical upside.
    Last edited by bitonti; 04-11-2011 at 11:57 PM.

  18. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by bitonti View Post

    If the Jets want a streaky player they can take Allen Bailey with 18 career sacks running the same 4.7 Ayers runs but at 280 not 260. everyone in the NFL is a little faster than they were in college. Brooks Reed also has more career sacks and better workout numbers than Ayers. Everyone just assumes Ayers is good cause he's been a name for a while but if 2 prospects are there and all things are equal i'd prefer the faster bigger player. If they aren't equal, He's got to prove it on production. Kerrigan has pretty good workouts but amazing production 37 sacks. Ayers got amazing highlight and terrible low lights. He's got pretty good not great production. I just don't know what to think about this player. You mention upside, I think that's the problem. If he's really running a 4.7 he doesn't have physical upside.
    weird. quoting your message doesn't come up with the same thing your wrote.

    edit** you just edited it. Well now it's convoluted. I was gonna say you just sold me on Bailey or Reed over the Ayers angle.

  19. #39
    Quote Originally Posted by Paradis View Post
    Which mock was this? If Reed is truly the last one left, then sure. But it just can't happen. Thats upsurd amount of Front 7 defensive players to off the board in the 29 picks. It's just doesn't play out like that.

    Dareus
    Von Miller
    Quinn
    Fairly
    Bowers
    A. Smith
    Jordan
    Watt
    Kerrigan
    Liuget
    Wilkerson
    Houston
    Taylor
    Wilkerson
    Heyward
    Ayers
    Austin
    Reed

    I mean C'MON... (not at you, just in general).. It's not gonna happen.

    Newton
    Gabbert
    Mallet
    Locker

    Ingram

    Green
    Jones
    T. Smith

    T.Smith
    Pouncey
    Carimi
    Castonzo
    Sherrod
    Solder
    Carpenter

    Peterson
    Amukamara
    J. Smith
    A. Williams
    R. Dowling


    If all the guys that need to be gone for us to be stuck with Reed, would mean 6-7 of these guys don't get picked before us. Not gonna happen. CB is big need and so is OT.

    IF anything, i see the opposite. Teams can't count on the FA this year. QBs, OTs, CBs are gonna fly off the board. The draft is deep enough on the front 7 for team pass on DEs and LBs

    IMO
    This is a very good post and should put paid to all the other posts saying we'll be stuck with garbage/ non-need position prospects at our spot. Nonsense, we'll have fine options De/OLB etc at our spot in the 1st.

  20. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by bitonti View Post
    Every team is obsessed with work out numbers. No one's gonna get drafted on film alone.
    FB John Conner did. Rex even said so on the Hard Knocks episode. He was picked SOLELY b/c Rex noticed him constantly blowing up people while scouting a LB during game film. It was Rex's "gimme pick" by Tanny - and the football COACH went on to draft Conner based on film alone.

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