God help the team that needs a QB and does not draft one. Where are they going to get one? Ahh, you say they (ie. Arizona) is going to acquire a veteran QB from some team like Philly.
If I am Philly I am praying that Arizona, Seattle, San Fran and Cincinnati (and Buffalo and Miami to a lesser extent) all have this mind set. The problem for these teams will be that demand will be high and supply will be low. If I am Philly my trade demands in our initial conversations would make a GM pause to catch his breath. The conversation would START with a 1st round pick and only go up from there. Depending on how good I thought your team would do next year I'd also demand a 2nd or 3rd round pick.
What is Arizona going to do? The draft is over. They are screwed. Go ahead talk to Washington. Washington is going to squeeze you too. They should try and sweat a team for 1st round pick for McNabb.
All this talk of the Bengals drafting a WR is nice. One question. Who is going to throw the ball to young Mr. Green? Don't even think about Palmer. I take him at his word. I don't believe this guy will play for Cincinnati this year. If he shows up it would be much later just to stick it to the Bengals (for not trading him) and mess up their cap.
A team might balk at the seller's initial demands, but I would bet that someone is going to panic that one of their buying rivals is going pay the price and they are going to be caught without a seat (QB) when the music stops.
Don't draft a QB you will be at the seller's mercy.
This is the exact reverse of what normally happens as teams usually fill needs via trades or FA before the draft.
What it comes down for me is what is the best football decision for a realistic thinking GM and coach.
- We are a bad team, what in our own honest minds will we be able to do next year?
- How much is the QB we draft this year going to help us next year?
- Is this QB crop really any good or is it's value being pushed up by need?
Most rookie QB's do not have good success unless other parts of the team are already built up. (See Sanchez and Roethlisburger)
- What do we do now that we have drafted a QB in the 1st round?
- What does the QB crop look like next year? (And I don't just mean Luck)
If you are a team that has built up your roster on defense and the run game already then by all means take the plunge. If not do NOT draft a QB unless you are sure he is a franchise guy.
There are QB's in just about every draft year, when your team is ready be aggressive like the Jets were and get that QB, until then build your team in other areas so that when you do get the rookie QB he has a chance.