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Thread: A Reasonable Breakdown of our Playoff Chances

  1. #1

    A Reasonable Breakdown of our Playoff Chances

    Here is our remaining schedule:

    @Denver
    Buff
    @Washington
    Kansas City
    @ Philadelphia
    NY Giants
    @ Miami

    Easy Wins: Denver, Washington, Miami
    Probably Win: Kansas City, Buffalo, Philadelphia (they'll be cashing their season checks about the time we play them)
    50-50 Chance or worse of winning: NY Giants.

    Lets set the easy win percentage to 1- 3 wins

    Lets set the probably win percentage to .666 (pretty low for a probably win percentage) - So we win 2 of 3 of them

    Lets set the 50-50 chance or worse of winning to .333- so 0 wins.

    That would make us 10-6 with a division record of either 7-5 or 8-4.

    [CENTER][U]The Competition[/U][/CENTER]
    The Bills, Baltimore, Pitt, Cincy, the Titans, 1 team from AFC West (because they play each other there has to be one win though I doubt any of them will win enough to be a problem).

    [B]Baltimore, Pitt and Cincy[/B]
    One of them has to win the division and Cincy plays Baltimore 2 more times and Pitt once (and they have a game against Houston). For sake of simplicity, lets assume they fall out of it which is good and bad because it eliminates a team while also giving wins to the Ravens and the Steelers.

    Baltimore doesn't have that hard of a schedule and only has one tough game against the 49ers. If they run the table they get to 13-3, if they lose to the 49ers they are 12-4.

    The Steelers have a similar schedule with their only tough game being against the 49ers and they can get to 13-3 or 12-4 also.

    Either the Ravens or the Steelers are getting one of the wildcard spots, the Bengals just have too hard a schedule to keep up their level of play.

    The good thing with these teams also is that they play the AFC West a lot so they will knock any of those teams out of contention for the Wildcard. Cincy will probably finish at 10-6 assuming they win one of the three games they have left against the Steelers and the Ravens. That will give them a conference record of 7-5 (same as us on the lower scale). I don't know 100% how the tiebreaker of common opponents works but I think they will lose to us because if they are 10-6 and have that division record it means they lost at least once to the Ravens and we have a lead on them in common opponents as they lost to Denver (assuming we beat Denver).

    [B]The Bills[/B]
    Personally, I don't think the Bills will pose any problems, they have a habit of starting hot, getting people talking, and then failing miserably. They did this same act in '08 and '04.

    Assuming that we have to beat the Bills to have a chance the most important game on their schedule for us is their game against the Titans. While I highly doubt the Titans will be relevant at the end of the season due to their schedule (they play the Falcons, Saints, and Texans) if somehow they win some of those games, one of the 5-4 teams (speaking of the Bills and Titans) will get a loss giving them 5 losses.

    Couple that with us beating the Bills (an assumed necessity) and the Bills have 6 losses. I also expect the Bills to lose one of their games to either the Pats or the Chargers and hence they have 7 losses and are out at 9-7.



    Overall, we have to take care of business, but if we do, we can get into the playoffs at 10-6. All the teams we are competing against play each other hence guaranteeing one of them will lose.. All is not lost guys, I'm just as pissed as you, but the Patriots are a great team with a hall of fame QB and an amazing head coach. Ryan normally out coaches BB in their matchups to make up for where we lack the talent but this is when he gets out coached.

    Also, stop with the negativity about the Broncos game. We'll beat them easily. Tebow completed TWO passes.

  2. #2
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    [QUOTE=Jetspennyfan;4232442]Here is our remaining schedule:

    @Denver
    Buff
    @Washington
    Kansas City
    @ Philadelphia
    NY Giants
    @ Miami

    Easy Wins: Denver, Washington, Miami
    Probably Win: Kansas City, Buffalo, Philadelphia (they'll be cashing their season checks about the time we play them)
    50-50 Chance or worse of winning: NY Giants.

    Lets set the easy win percentage to 1- 3 wins

    Lets set the probably win percentage to .666 (pretty low for a probably win percentage) - So we win 2 of 3 of them

    Lets set the 50-50 chance or worse of winning to .333- so 0 wins.

    That would make us 10-6 with a division record of either 7-5 or 8-4.

    [CENTER][U]The Competition[/U][/CENTER]
    The Bills, Baltimore, Pitt, Cincy, the Titans, 1 team from AFC West (because they play each other there has to be one win though I doubt any of them will win enough to be a problem).

    [B]Baltimore, Pitt and Cincy[/B]
    One of them has to win the division and Cincy plays Baltimore 2 more times and Pitt once (and they have a game against Houston). For sake of simplicity, lets assume they fall out of it which is good and bad because it eliminates a team while also giving wins to the Ravens and the Steelers.

    Baltimore doesn't have that hard of a schedule and only has one tough game against the 49ers. If they run the table they get to 13-3, if they lose to the 49ers they are 12-4.

    The Steelers have a similar schedule with their only tough game being against the 49ers and they can get to 13-3 or 12-4 also.

    Either the Ravens or the Steelers are getting one of the wildcard spots, the Bengals just have too hard a schedule to keep up their level of play.

    The good thing with these teams also is that they play the AFC West a lot so they will knock any of those teams out of contention for the Wildcard. Cincy will probably finish at 10-6 assuming they win one of the three games they have left against the Steelers and the Ravens. That will give them a conference record of 7-5 (same as us on the lower scale). I don't know 100% how the tiebreaker of common opponents works but I think they will lose to us because if they are 10-6 and have that division record it means they lost at least once to the Ravens and we have a lead on them in common opponents as they lost to Denver (assuming we beat Denver).

    [B]The Bills[/B]
    Personally, I don't think the Bills will pose any problems, they have a habit of starting hot, getting people talking, and then failing miserably. They did this same act in '08 and '04.

    Assuming that we have to beat the Bills to have a chance the most important game on their schedule for us is their game against the Titans. While I highly doubt the Titans will be relevant at the end of the season due to their schedule (they play the Falcons, Saints, and Texans) if somehow they win some of those games, one of the 5-4 teams (speaking of the Bills and Titans) will get a loss giving them 5 losses.

    Couple that with us beating the Bills (an assumed necessity) and the Bills have 6 losses. I also expect the Bills to lose one of their games to either the Pats or the Chargers and hence they have 7 losses and are out at 9-7.



    Overall, we have to take care of business, but if we do, we can get into the playoffs at 10-6. All the teams we are competing against play each other hence guaranteeing one of them will lose.. All is not lost guys, I'm just as pissed as you, but the Patriots are a great team with a hall of fame QB and an amazing head coach. Ryan normally out coaches BB in their matchups to make up for where we lack the talent but this is when he gets out coached.

    [B]Also, stop with the negativity about the Broncos game. We'll beat them easily. Tebow completed TWO passes.[/B][/QUOTE]

    We lost by 21 points to the mediocre Patriots. We're not beating anyone easily.

    Why do I see Tebow having success like Tight Ends do against the Jets for some reason?

    I do agree with our playoff chances though. The will be a borderline 9-7 or 10-6 team. I see them sneaking into the playoffs and winning one game before getting annihilated in Baltimore or Pitt.

  3. #3
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    Hate to say it, but none of these wins are easy. Well, maybe Washington. But none of the others should be written off.

  4. #4
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    The Jets aren't making the playoffs, sorry.


































    There. I have just guarrenteed the Jets making the playoffs.:)

  5. #5
    @Denver - W
    Buff - W
    @Washington - W
    Kansas City - W
    @ Philadelphia - L
    NY Giants - L
    @ Miami - W


    No reason the Jets can't finish 10-6 and at least have a good shot at a wildcard. All of those games are winnable even the two I think may be losses the Jets can a very capable of winning those games.


    [B]However, if we lose to one-dimensional Teabag on Thursday you can consider the season to be over. The guy can't f'n throw all he does is run against defenses like the Chiefs and Phins who are horrible. I don't care if it's on the road and a short week if the Jets lose to Tim Tebow they don't even deserve to make the playoffs they suck and all the bs critics are right.[/B]

  6. #6
    I don't know how much it matters if we do make the playoffs. It seems obvious at this point that we cannot beat the top tier teams in the league this year. The Pats aren't even that good this year and we can't beat them.

    Let's be honest do you think the Jets have a chance of winning three games against these teams to go to the superbowl? I'd be surprised if they won one.
    Steelers
    Ravens
    Texans
    Patriots
    Raiders

    No chance, sorry. The rest of the season is about growing Sanchez, our rookie d-linemen and trying to find someone on the roster that can cover TE's from the safety position. I'm sure that's not how Rex or the Jets see it, and they shouldn't.

  7. #7
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    [QUOTE=My.Favorite.Martin;4232500]I don't know how much it matters if we do make the playoffs. It seems obvious at this point that we cannot beat the top tier teams in the league this year. The Pats aren't even that good this year and we can't beat them.

    Let's be honest do you think the Jets have a chance of winning three games against these teams to go to the superbowl? I'd be surprised if they won one.
    Steelers
    Ravens
    Texans
    Patriots
    Raiders

    No chance, sorry. The rest of the season is about growing Sanchez, our rookie d-linemen and trying to find someone on the roster that can cover TE's from the safety position. I'm sure that's not how Rex or the Jets see it, and they shouldn't.[/QUOTE]

    Truth is they can beat all of those teams.. just not 3 times in a row on the road. Thats why last night all but sealed off the Superbowl for this year.

  8. #8
    If we win this week we will be tied for the last playoffs spot (not factoring in tiebreakers) (cinci playing baltimore this week).

    Tenn (also 5-4) is playing at Atlanta this week. The bills are imploding. The West is a joke.

    Really not that complicated. Our remaining schedule is not that difficult.

  9. #9
    [QUOTE=revischrist;4232505]If we win this week we will be tied for the last playoffs spot (not factoring in tiebreakers) (cinci playing baltimore this week).

    Tenn (also 5-4) is playing at Atlanta this week. The bills are imploding. The West is a joke.

    Really not that complicated. Our remaining schedule is not that difficult.[/QUOTE]

    The rest of the season's schedule is easy. But if the Jets somehow find a way to lose to Tim Teabag fuggedaboutit. That would be pathetic and honestly if they lose that game they just suck.

  10. #10
    [QUOTE=TerminatorJet;4232507]The rest of the season's schedule is easy. But if the Jets somehow find a way to lose to Tim Teabag fuggedaboutit. That would be pathetic and honestly if they lose that game they just suck.[/QUOTE]

    Agreed. If you can't beat this Denver team with Tebow and every RB hurt then its time to start thinking about next year.

  11. #11
    [B]"but the Patriots are a great team with a hall of fame QB and an amazing head coach."[/B]

    Not correct. Great hof QB. Great offense. Total and utter jag defense that every other team in the league is just killing this year.

  12. #12
    [QUOTE=Jetspennyfan;4232442]Here is our remaining schedule:

    @Denver
    Buff
    @Washington
    Kansas City
    @ Philadelphia
    NY Giants
    @ Miami

    [/QUOTE]

    Short week going into Denver. Tebow can run and the Jets LB's are slow. This is not a good game for us, plus we have a lot of troubles in Denver

    Buffalo and Miami are AFC East teams, I don't care what their records are, generally speaking they will be tough games. Miami is hot now, too.

    Washington should play dead for us.

    KC is better than you think they are.

    I'm chalking Philly and the Giants up as losses.

    So basically, at 5-4, the Jets can lose roughly 2 more games.

    I see at least 3 losses ahead in some way shape or form, which still may get you into the playoffs because Cinci and Buffalo suck.

    As of now:

    Pats from the East
    Ravens and Steelers from the North
    Houston from the South
    West who knows or cares........they all blow.

    The problem is that the Jets aren't very good either.

    So what's going to happen is that between the entire AFC West, Tennessee, Cincy, Buffalo, and the Jets, you have 7 teams.

    One will end up 10-6, but all of these teams have deep flaws.

    My prediction is that Cincy and Buffalo are done at this point. Cincy's schedule is now brutal. Buffalo isn't a good team and only looked good because of the lockout and continuity.

    Tennessee is scary because at some point Johnson is going to start shredding people and Hasselbeck is the best QB considering Rivers' year of these "pretenders" and their defense isn't that bad.

    The Jets have personnel and scheme issues and are also going to lose to either Buffalo, Miami, or Denver moving forward. That gives them leeway to lose one game against Philly or the Giants and still have a legit shot at the playoffs.

    The problem is that I think KC is going to be a major issue...........

  13. #13
    [QUOTE=jetstream23;4232471]We lost by 21 points to the mediocre Patriots. We're not beating anyone easily.

    Why do I see Tebow having success like Tight Ends do against the Jets for some reason?

    I do agree with our playoff chances though. The will be a borderline 9-7 or 10-6 team. I see them sneaking into the playoffs and winning one game before getting annihilated in Baltimore or Pitt.[/QUOTE]

    Any team led by Tom Brady isn't mediocre. They didn't even beat us on talent, they beat us on coaching. Why Sanchez called a TO with :17 left on the playclock is beyond me but it's not talent. Why Rex didn't call a TO to get the D reorganized when the Pats were going no huddle and we had the wrong package on the field to stop the run is beyond me, but it's not talent.

    And really? You see TIM TEBOW having success? TIM FREAKING TEBOW. Yes, Tom Brady can have success against our LB when covering their tight ends but to compare him to Tim Tebow or use anything that Brady did to compare him to Tim Tebow is a joke.

  14. #14
    [QUOTE=PMarsico9;4232517]Short week going into Denver. Tebow can run and the Jets LB's are slow. This is not a good game for us, plus we have a lot of troubles in Denver

    Buffalo and Miami are AFC East teams, I don't care what their records are, generally speaking they will be tough games. Miami is hot now, too.

    Washington should play dead for us.

    KC is better than you think they are.

    I'm chalking Philly and the Giants up as losses.

    So basically, at 5-4, the Jets can lose roughly 2 more games.

    I see at least 3 losses ahead in some way shape or form, which still may get you into the playoffs because Cinci and Buffalo suck.

    As of now:

    Pats from the East
    Ravens and Steelers from the North
    Houston from the South
    West who knows or cares........they all blow.

    The problem is that the Jets aren't very good either.

    So what's going to happen is that between the entire AFC West, Tennessee, Cincy, Buffalo, and the Jets, you have 7 teams.

    One will end up 10-6, but all of these teams have deep flaws.

    My prediction is that Cincy and Buffalo are done at this point. Cincy's schedule is now brutal. Buffalo isn't a good team and only looked good because of the lockout and continuity.

    Tennessee is scary because at some point Johnson is going to start shredding people and Hasselbeck is the best QB considering Rivers' year of these "pretenders" and their defense isn't that bad.

    The Jets have personnel and scheme issues and are also going to lose to either Buffalo, Miami, or Denver moving forward. That gives them leeway to lose one game against Philly or the Giants and still have a legit shot at the playoffs.

    The problem is that I think KC is going to be a major issue...........[/QUOTE]

    And we're losing to the Eagles why? That team will be in full revolt mode against Reid at that point.

  15. #15
    I think we make the playoffs easy. I would have loved to win the division but we just have not progressed enough as a team to make that next set.

  16. #16
    [QUOTE=revischrist;4232515]Agreed. If you can't beat this Denver team with Tebow and every RB hurt then its time to start thinking about next year.[/QUOTE]

    100% correct. It's over if we can't beat Tim "2 of 8" Tebow.

  17. #17
    [QUOTE=lolepop;4232491]The Jets aren't making the playoffs, sorry.





    There. I have just guarrenteed the Jets making the playoffs.:)[/QUOTE]

    But then you just unguaranteed it!!!! :steamin:

  18. #18
    [QUOTE=My.Favorite.Martin;4232500]I don't know how much it matters if we do make the playoffs. [B]It seems obvious at this point that we cannot beat the top tier teams in the league this year.[/B] The Pats aren't even that good this year and we can't beat them.

    Let's be honest do you think the Jets have a chance of winning three games against these teams to go to the superbowl? I'd be [B]surprised[/B] if they won one.
    Steelers
    Ravens
    Texans
    Patriots
    Raiders

    No chance, sorry. The rest of the season is about growing Sanchez, our rookie d-linemen and trying to find someone on the roster that can cover TE's from the safety position. I'm sure that's not how Rex or the Jets see it, and they shouldn't.[/QUOTE]

    You're kidding right. You think we thought we could beat anyone when we lost to the Falcons in '09 or lost 45-3 to the Pats last year? No.

    Any given Sunday, and the great thing is this team is LOADED with talent on any given Sunday. The thing is just to see if we can put it together on any given Sunday.

  19. #19
    [QUOTE=Jetspennyfan;4232521]And we're losing to the Eagles why? That team will be in full revolt mode against Reid at that point.[/QUOTE]

    been seeing people chalk the Eagles game up as a loss for awhile. A team full of overpaid underachievers and a shaky coach is a lot more likely to be mailing it in at that point of the season then coming out with a strong effort.

  20. #20
    [QUOTE=Jetspennyfan;4232521]And we're losing to the Eagles why? That team will be in full revolt mode against Reid at that point.[/QUOTE]

    Massive speed mismatches in intermediate wideout routes, Vick, Celek, and McCoy.

    The Eagles have been losing because of Reid, but even with that, you have to plan as if they are well coached.

    If Reid comes out running a short West Coast offense like he should and gives McCoy at least 25 carries, this is not a good matchup for the Jets.

    It's really not a good matchup for anybody, but especially with how slow the Jets LB's are in coverage.

    Also it's at the Linc.

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