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Thread: The Jets do NOT control their own destiny (technically)

  1. #1

    The Jets do NOT control their own destiny (technically)

    OK, I've done the math. Here's how things shake out:

    THE BENGALS AND JETS CAN BOTH WIN OUT AND THE BENGALS CAN STILL MAKE THE PLAYOFFS.

    Let's supposed the Jets and Bengals both win their remaining two games. They'd both sit at 10-6. Being that those teams are tied for the last wild card spot alone right now, no other team would factor in to the playoff spot.

    So going down the list of tiebreakers for wildcards:

    1) Head-to-head, if applicable.

    Not applicable

    2) Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.

    According to ESPN.com, the Jets and Bengals both have a 6-5 conference record. Given they both win out, their records will both be 7-5. On to the next one.

    3) Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.

    Both the Jets and Bengals have played Buffalo, Denver, Baltimore, and Jacksonville. By season's end, they'll have 5 games combined against those teams (the Jets have Buffalo 2 times, the Bengals have Baltimore 2 times). The Jets are 3-2 in those games. Again, assuming the Bengals win out, they are 3-2 as well. On to the next one.

    4) Strength of victory.

    This is the deciding, and very tricky part. In order to show that this is currently undecided, I'm going to show that there is a scenario where the Jets' SOV ends up lower than the Bengals'.

    This is just basic set theory. The Jets have a set of possible outcomes for their SOV. So do the Bengals. By showing the Jets lowest possible outcome is lower than the Bengals highest possible outcome given the same set of circumstances and vice versa, we'll know the Bengals can finish with a better SOV, and win the tiebreaker and vice versa by extension.

    First, to find the Bengals highest possible outcome. Assuming they win out, here are the 10 games they will have won and their current records:

    Cleveland 4-10
    Buffalo 5-9
    Jacksonville 4-10
    Indianapolis 1-13
    Seattle 7-7
    Tennessee 7-7
    Cleveland 4-10
    St. Louis 2-12
    Arizona 7-7
    Baltimore 10-4

    That's a combined record of 51-89, a winning % of .364

    If you count Cleveland twice, there are 5 common games among these teams, so best case scenario, 10*2-5=15 wins can be added to that total. Also, a minimum of 5 games get added to that total. In the best case scenario, the record is 66-94, a winning % of .413. In the worst case scenario, .350

    As for the Jets:

    Dallas 8-6
    Jacksonville 4-10
    Miami 5-9
    San Diego 7-7
    Buffalo 5-9
    Buffalo 5-9
    Washington 5-9
    Kansas City 6-8
    NY Giants 7-7
    Miami 5-9

    That's a combined record of 57-83, a winning % of .407

    If you count Buffalo twice, there is 1 common game among these teams, so best case scenario, 10*2-1=19 wins can be added to that total. Also, a minimum of 1 game gets added to that total. In the best case scenario, the record is 76-84, a winning % of .475. In the worst case scenario, .363

    So if things go perfect for the Bengals, their winning % is .413. Given the same things happen and things go as terribly as possible for the Jets, their SOV would be calculated as follows:

    The Bills and Jaguars are the only 2 teams both the Jets and Bengals beat. So in this scenario the Jets get +2 wins for the Bills, and since the Jaguars play both Indianapolis and Tennessee, they don't have to win, so the Jets get no help from beating them. So in this case, the Jets get 3 wins over the next 2 weeks, so their SOV is 60-100, a winning % of .375.

    In this case the Bengals have the better SOV.

    So if things go perfect for the Jets, their SOV is .475. Given the same things happen and things go as terribly as possible for the Bengals, their SOV would be calculated as follows:


    The Bills and Jaguars are the only 2 teams both the Jets and Bengals beat. So in this scenario the Bengals get +2 wins for the Bills and Jaguars. So in this case, the Bengals get 5 wins over the next 2 weeks, so their SOV is 60-100, a winning % of .350.

    So it's possible the Jets end up with a better SOV.

    So what I'm trying to say is this: [B][I][U][SIZE="6"]NO MATTER WHAT THE JETS AND BENGALS DO, NEITHER TEAM CONTROLS THEIR OWN DESTINY. IT'S UP TO OTHER TEAMS TO DECIDE IF BOTH TEAMS WIN OUT.[/SIZE][/U][/I][/B]

  2. #2
    great breakdown

  3. #3
    But what are the odds of the Jets not playing like ****???????

  4. #4
    [QUOTE=Magnus;4282959]But what are the odds of the Jets not playing like ****???????[/QUOTE]
    I wish I knew.

    As a general rule of thumb the last 2 weeks, root for the Jets to win and the Bengals to lose. But also root for the teams the Jets have beaten to win, and the teams the Bengals have beaten to lose. Tips the scale in the Jets favor.

  5. #5
    oh but they do.

    [QUOTE]TheJetsStream Manish Mehta
    Per ESPN stats, Jets have 10-game lead over Bengals in strength of victory. So, if both teams finish 2-0, NYJ would hold tiebreaker. #nyj
    2 hours ago [/QUOTE]

  6. #6
    [QUOTE=Sanchez 3:16;4282968]oh but they do.[/QUOTE]

    That's not true, you would think Billion dollar ESPN would know more than some fan on a message board but they dont

    Jason did a good breakdown on his site: [url]http://nyjetscap.com/2011_Post/sov.php[/url]

    I played with the playoff machine and a lot has to break right for the Bengals to win the SOV, the Browns pretty much have to win out, if they split the Ravens/Steelers it becomes very tough for the Bengals
    Last edited by IM3; 12-19-2011 at 12:25 AM.

  7. #7
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    [QUOTE=Magnus;4282959]But what are the odds of the Jets not playing like ****???????[/QUOTE]

    Just ran the math..
    33.3% repeating of course ...

  8. #8
    [QUOTE=IM3;4282993]That's not true, you would think Billion dollar ESPN would know more than some fan on a message board but they dont

    Jason did a good breakdown on his site: [url]http://nyjetscap.com/2011_Post/sov.php[/url]

    I played with the playoff machine and a lot has to break right for the Bengals to win the SOV, the Browns pretty much have to win out, if they split the Ravens/Steelers it becomes very tough for the Bengals[/QUOTE]

    It's a valid point you make.

    That being said, if you play around the scenarios that would have to go the bengals way, it climbs into the mid to high 90s percentage wise for the jets. The jets would win the strength of schedule in the event of a tie, I believe, as well.

  9. #9
    [QUOTE=fivewide;4283072]It's a valid point you make.

    That being said, if you play around the scenarios that would have to go the bengals way, it climbs into the mid to high 90s percentage wise for the jets. The jets would win the strength of schedule in the event of a tie, I believe, as well.[/QUOTE]
    SOV is not decided yet. There are still scenarios that make Cincinnati win the tiebreaker.

  10. #10
    I would try and figure out the probability because I'm a math nerd, but there are over 2 million outcomes...

  11. #11
    Here are the updated numbers assuming both teams win out:

    Jets SOV: 57-91
    Bengals SOV: 51-97

    Bengals games that affect the race:

    Week 16:

    Browns Vs. Baltimore ((Bengals beat both teams, if win out)
    Colts Vs. Houston
    Seahawks Vs. 49ers (Bengals beat both teams)
    Titans Vs. Jaguars (Jets Beat Jaguars, only value to Bengals w/ Titans win)
    Rams Vs. Steelers

    For the Playoffs, Jets fans rooting against Colts, Titans, and Rams

    Jets games that affect the race:

    Cowboys Vs. Eagles
    Dolphins Vs. Patriots (Worth 2 for Jets)
    Chargers Vs Lions
    Bills Vs Broncos (Net 1 victory for Jets if Bills win)
    Redskins Vs Vikings
    Chiefs Vs Oakland

    For the Playoffs, Jets fans rooting for Cowboys, Dolphins, Chargers, Bills, Redskins, Chiefs

    As of this moment the Jets are +6, However, 2 games are guaranteed net of 1 win for Bengals, so the Jets are really +4 going into week 16, but with more chances to gain ground.

    The Chargers win over the Ravens today was a MASSIVE help for the Jets as it served as a 2 game swing.
    Last edited by Batmans A Scientist; 12-19-2011 at 10:24 AM.

  12. #12
    [QUOTE=Batmans A Scientist;4283230]Here are the updated numbers assuming both teams win out:

    Jets SOV: 57-91
    Bengals SOV: 51-97

    Bengals games that affect the race:

    Week 16:

    Browns Vs. Baltimore ((Bengals beat both teams, if win out)
    Colts Vs. Houston
    Seahawks Vs. 49ers (Bengals beat both teams)
    Titans Vs. Jaguars (Jets Beat Bengals)
    Rams Vs. Steelers

    For the Playoffs, Jets fans rooting against Colts, Titans, and Rams

    Jets games that affect the race:

    Cowboys Vs. Eagles
    Dolphins Vs. Patriots (Worth 2 for Jets)
    Chargers Vs Lions
    Bills Vs Broncos (Net 1 victory for Jets if Bills win)
    Redskins Vs Vikings
    Chiefs Vs Broncos

    For the Playoffs, Jets fans rooting for Cowboys, Dolphins, Chargers, Bills, Redskins, Chiefs

    As of this moment the Jets are +6, However, 2 games are guaranteed net of 1 win for Bengals, so the Jets are really +4 going into week 16, but with more chances to gain ground.

    The Chargers win over the Ravens today was a MASSIVE help for the Jets as it served as a 2 game swing.[/QUOTE]
    There are more games than that. It takes into account every team the Jets or Bengals have beat. So KC, Dallas, etc. have an impact.

  13. #13
    What I have heard is that the only really chance Cincinatti has of beating us in strength of victory is if the Browns win out.

  14. #14
    [QUOTE=BIGKIDD325;4283271]There are more games than that. It takes into account every team the Jets or Bengals have beat. So KC, Dallas, etc. have an impact.[/QUOTE]

    I just looked at week 16.

    Both the Cowboys and Chiefs are mentioned.

    I didn't include the Bills on the Bengals side, because there's no value to the Bengals if the Bills win (Jets get +2, Bengals get +1)

    Similarly, I didn't include the Jaguars/Titans on the Jets side, because If the Jags win, it's a wash, and if the Titans win, it's +1 for Jags (That's why it's included on their side only)

  15. #15
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    After this weekend, I'm beginning to think the last wildcard team in the AFC may have a 9-7 record.

  16. #16
    [QUOTE=Batmans A Scientist;4283287]I just looked at week 16.

    Both the Cowboys and Chiefs are mentioned.

    I didn't include the Bills on the Bengals side, because there's no value to the Bengals if the Bills win (Jets get +2, Bengals get +1)

    Similarly, I didn't include the Jaguars/Titans on the Jets side, because If the Jags win, it's a wash, and if the Titans win, it's +1 for Jags (That's why it's included on their side only)[/QUOTE]
    I mean, for example, the Chiefs in week 16 against Oakland. That game can boost the Jets SOV and it isn't included.

  17. #17
    Also figured out that it's possible the Jets and Bengals have equal SOV after the next 2 weeks.
    Last edited by BIGKIDD325; 12-19-2011 at 10:32 AM.

  18. #18
    fwiw

    [URL="https://twitter.com/#%21/TheJetsStream"]TheJetsStream[/URL] Manish Mehta
    It's a virtual mathematical certainty Jets will make playoffs if they win last 2 gms due to (likely) better strength of victory over Bengals

  19. #19
    LOL, this guy has been doing this for years and gives the Jets a 100 PERCENT chance of making the playoffs if they win out. Once the chargers beat the Ravens the odds went frmo 99.7 to 100 percent.

    [url]http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NFL/AFC/AFCEast/NYJets.html[/url]

  20. #20
    [QUOTE=Sanchez 3:16;4282968]oh but they do.[/QUOTE]

    Yea, but that 10 game lead is not relevant. If the tiebreaker ends up being applied, then by defenition the Bengals beat the Ravens which could cut it down to 3 or 4 game lead for the Jets.

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