# Thread: The Jets do NOT control their own destiny (technically)

1. [QUOTE=tedtedthefootballhead;4283405]you got to be fricken kidding me......the fact that some of youze guys actually know how to count and figure out all this SOV crap has given me a headache.

If it ever came down to the coin flip tie breaker, you guy's would be analyzing he odds of heads vs. tails in Goodell's office on a Tuesday with the sun shining and the window open and the temps in the 40's. But how do the odds change if the window was closed, or the temps were in the 30's? Or Goodell washed his hands with plain soap vs moisturized soap?

Go ahead, say it. I'm an ass.[/QUOTE]

Goodell uses Dove soap. And everyone knows Tails is a favorite over heads in warm weather.

2. [QUOTE=JetsCrazey;4283415][URL="http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/playoffscenario?algorithm=custom&14=50154154&15=04041044&16=54414400"]http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/playoffscenario?algorithm=custom&14=50154154&15=04041044&16=54414400[/URL]

I found a scenario where the Jets go 2-0 and miss the playoffs. Click the link for details on the Yahoo scenario generator

Basically it's something like 99.9% that the Jets control their own destiny but not exactly 100%[/QUOTE]

Nice work...talk about finding a needle in a haystack....

...and for the guy earlier who talked about giving him a headache....I understand it, but for someone who is passionate about sports, stats and math, you find this stuff kind of interesting.

3. [QUOTE=fivewide;4283433]Nice work...talk about finding a needle in a haystack....

...and for the guy earlier who talked about giving him a headache....I understand it, but for someone who is passionate about sports, stats and math, you find this stuff kind of interesting.[/QUOTE]

Well my day job is in business analyitcs and Data analysis. Part of the reason I got the job (and my previous job in a similar area) was because of my enthusiasm for it. So.. yeah, I'm basically a big nerd and love diving into the stuff.

4. [QUOTE=CV 40;4283386]What happens when the Jets lose to the Giants and the Bengals lose to the Ravens?

Thats the likely scenario. Then the Bengals dont matter anymore.i[/QUOTE]
That's right. In that case, the Jets win by conference record.

5. [QUOTE=revischrist;4283390]So what would you put the odds on the Jets missing the playoffs despite going 2-0?[/QUOTE]
By my rough calculation, if the Jets and Bengals win out and you consider all of those games a coin flip (both teams have games that they want to go their way that are likely to go their way, so it evens out. Also, after watching what happened yesterday, who can really calculate a probability of a team winning?), I'd say the Jets have about a 75% chance of winning SOV.

6. [QUOTE=Batmans A Scientist;4283394]True. But the Bengals have to pick up 3 games here alone:

Texans @ [B]Colts[/B]
[B]Browns[/B] @ Ravens (+2 for Browns Win, +1 for Ravens win)
[B]Rams[/B] @ Steelers
49ers @ [B]Seahawks[/B]
Steelers @ [B]Browns[/B] (+2 for Browns Win)
[B]Colts[/B] @ Jaguars
49ers @ [B]Rams[/B]
[B]Titans[/B] @ Texans

Bold faced teams need 3 more wins than the following:

Broncos @ [B] Bills [/B]
[B]Dolphins[/B] @ Patriots(Jets get +2 for Dolphins Win)
Vikings @ [B]Redskins[/B]
Raiders @ [B] Chiefs [/B]
[B]Chargers [/B] @Lions
Eagles@[B] Cowboys [/B]
[B]Redskins [/B] @ Eagles
[B]Bills [/B] @ Patriots
[B]Chiefs [/B]@ Broncos
[B]Chargers [/B] @ Raiders

This is for people who are still confused, I'm confident BigKidd gets it

For example: The top group of bold faced teams need to pick up 5 more victories (Each Browns win counts 2x), than the bottom group of teams (Dolphins win vs. NE counts 2x)

[B]Note[/B]: I believe the following are guaranteed gains: Kidd, let me know if I'm missing any, I have it Jets 57 Wins (Including winning out) Bengals 51 Wins (Including winning out). With the Bengals picking up 1 win guaranteed.

Bengals:
Cle @ Bal
Sea @ Ari

Jets:
Dal @ NYG[/QUOTE]
Yeah, the fact that the Browns and Ravens, Titans and Jaguars, Giants and Cowboys, Jaguars and Colts, and Cardinals and Seahawks have games guarantees wins added for both teams respectively. So the Bengals would sit 3 games back of the Jets in SOV given the set of circumstances we've outlined in the thread.

7. [QUOTE=Batmans A Scientist;4283437]Well my day job is in business analyitcs and Data analysis. Part of the reason I got the job (and my previous job in a similar area) was because of my enthusiasm for it. So.. yeah, I'm basically a big nerd and love diving into the stuff.[/QUOTE]
Yeah, I'm a math major at Binghamton and I just finished my semester, so I'm kind of bored and looking for something to do. I like messing around with this stuff. In reality, this only happens if the Jets and Bengals both win out. I seriously doubt that happens. But it doesn't make this any less fun.

8. No one should complain at the end of the year if the Jets don't get in because of strength of victory.

This team has blown opportunities to avoid this situation.

Losing to Denver was the absolute worst.

All I care about is this team beat the giants and dolphins.

9. Jets chances of making playoffs with a loss to giants and win against Fish?
We would need Bengals to lose to the Ravens (win conf record)
Oakland goes 1-1 (finishes 8-8)
Tenne can go 2-0(finishes 9-7 but worse conf record)

10. [QUOTE=revischrist;4283516]Jets chances of making playoffs with a loss to giants and win against Fish?
We would need Bengals to lose to the Ravens (win conf record)
Oakland goes 1-1 (finishes 8-8)
Tenne can go 2-0(finishes 9-7 but worse conf record)

i believe this is NOT correct....

tiebreakers when 3 or more teams are involved are different -- and from what I understand, do NOT favor Jets in any scenario.

so, the Jets can win tiebreakers when up against Tenn, SD, or CINN -- but NOT when tied more than one of them.

11. [QUOTE=tedtedthefootballhead;4283405]you got to be fricken kidding me......the fact that some of youze guys actually know how to count and figure out all this SOV crap has given me a headache.

If it ever came down to the coin flip tie breaker, you guy's would be analyzing he odds of heads vs. tails in Goodell's office on a Tuesday with the sun shining and the window open and the temps in the 40's. But how do the odds change if the window was closed, or the temps were in the 30's? Or Goodell washed his hands with plain soap vs moisturized soap?

Go ahead, say it. I'm an ass.[/QUOTE]

The odds are that Goodell would flip the coin in private and then send an email to Woody telling him the Jets lost out.

12. [QUOTE=BIGKIDD325;4283506]By my rough calculation, if the Jets and Bengals win out and you consider all of those games a coin flip (both teams have games that they want to go their way that are likely to go their way, so it evens out. Also, after watching what happened yesterday, who can really calculate a probability of a team winning?), I'd say the Jets have about a 75% chance of winning SOV.[/QUOTE]

You can't consider every game a coin flip . The browns have to win against Balt and Denver...a flip makes that 3-1... The actual odds are probably around 12-1.

The odds are in the very very high 90 percentile.

13. Can you please stop acting like you're expecting us to lose to the vaGiants?

14. [QUOTE=tedtedthefootballhead;4283405]you got to be fricken kidding me......the fact that some of youze guys actually know how to count and figure out all this SOV crap has given me a headache.

If it ever came down to the coin flip tie breaker, you guy's would be analyzing he odds of heads vs. tails in Goodell's office on a Tuesday with the sun shining and the window open and the temps in the 40's. But how do the odds change if the window was closed, or the temps were in the 30's? Or Goodell washed his hands with plain soap vs moisturized soap?

Go ahead, say it. I'm an ass.[/QUOTE]

You're an ass. ;)

15. [QUOTE=JetsCrazey;4283415][URL="http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/playoffscenario?algorithm=custom&14=50154154&15=04041044&16=54414400"]http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/playoffscenario?algorithm=custom&14=50154154&15=04041044&16=54414400[/URL]

I found a scenario where the Jets go 2-0 and miss the playoffs. Click the link for details on the Yahoo scenario generator

Basically it's something like 99.9% that the Jets control their own destiny but not exactly 100%[/QUOTE]

When I play with this scenario, it seems that the HOU/IND matchup is the key to that horrific case where we win out and cincy wins out and we miss playoffs. If IND wins over HOU it helps Cincy's case for a better SOV. So lets root for HOU tonight.

16. this will alll be a mute point. .. Jets aren't beating the Giants.

17. I'm confused. Are we rooting for the Texans or the Colts tonight?

18. According to ESPN Playoff machine Jets don't get in at 9-7 if titans win out. Beat the Giants and Phins and stop worrying about everyone else. The Carpet says JETS in the Endzone, 90% of the Stadium should be Green but it will be at least 75%. GET IT DONE WITH YOUR FANS IN YOUR SEATS!!!!! BTW Cheer for the Texans so that the Ravens and Titans have a reason to play next week. They play Cincy and Tenn if your interested in LIMPING INTO the Playoffs.

19. I so don't expect Cinci to win the last game of the year. They could actually loose both of their remaining IMO. Balt needs it to win the division and get a bye. Cinci hasn't actually beaten a good team IMO. So I dont see them starting week 17. Tenn is OK but really they Zona and Balt may both be better teams. Zona is also still playing for a WC spot if Atlanta or Detroit looses. Out of all the contenders still on the board they by far have the harder games left. Zona just beat Dallas and SF so that is not an easy road. If we loose it it will be to a team that is 7-7 right now. SD, Oakland and Tenn all still scare me more then Cinci. You also have to think SD and Oakland play each other so one of them is 8-7 with out this week.

20. By the way there is a slight flaw in the original BIGKIDD analysis (which further benefits the Jets) - the Bengals max out at .400 since to get to 10-6 the Bengals need to beat Arizona and the Ravens - which means those are two automatic losses for purposes of this calculation.

Best case Bengals scenario is only 64 wins (not 66).

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