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Thread: Mets have to trade everybody...right?

  1. #1
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    Mets have to trade everybody...right?

    I have been thinking about this for a little while (my wife and father-in-law are Met fans, I'm a Yankee fan) and don't the Mets have to try and trade Wright, Santan and Bay? maybe Pelfry too?

    The farm system is starting to get revitalized, but it isn't already there, and they could be 1-2 years from seeing dividends from the guys they have, so shouldn't the direction they take be to start collecting prospects?

    This sin't trolling but a serious question to Met fans here. Shouldn't they try and see what they can get during the season for guys like Santana and Wright if they are playing well mid-season and try to get a haul of players in return?

    Are either of these guys going to be around when the Mets are ready to contend in say 2014/2015?

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    They don't have many pieces of value other than Wright. At least until Santana proves he's healthy and effective and Bay shows some sign of life. And even if they do... you won't get much in return unless you eat a chunk of their contracts. I guess Pelfrey .. Murphy ... and Parnell have some value as well.

    It will be a hard pill to swallow for many Mets fan but I think the Mets should wait for a point in the season where Wright is hot and get as much as you can out someone for him.
    Last edited by Mantle & Namath; 01-18-2012 at 09:05 PM.

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    Yes, if Wright or Santana get off to good starts, by all means they need to trade them. Bay as well, although with 2 yrs left they may have to eat some contract. If they can get blue chip AA level prospects, that would be ideal.

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    For financial reasons the Mets need to trade everyone on the team who is paid north of $2 million dollars per season. The common wisdom is Mets have loans of $430+ million due in both 2014 & 2015. Nothing is more important than the Wilpon family retaining control of the team. It is more important than keeping players who would shortly have eclipsed team batting records. Because fans spend their money to watch the Wilpons own the team. We love that.




    In terms of building contender (putting team debt out of the argument) Bay and Santana are virtually untradeable with their giant salaries and lack of production. Bay has a funky approach at the plate and has hit like a fifth outfielder and been paid like an all-star since joining the Mets. Santana was injured for all of 2011. Santana injured his shoulder and Iíve heard that few pitchers recover from that. Pelfrey has shown little besides being a hard throwing innings eater. David Wright has had 2 down years. The claim is he played hurt in the beginning the 2011 season then went on the DL. Thus his value is low. At 29 years of age Wright is young enough to be part of future contending team, so why trade him when his value is low?

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    Really, the only guy mentioned who has real trade value right now is Wright.

    Wright's coming off a down year so you'd be selling low on him by dealing him now. And the thing with Wright is his 2013 option is voided if he's traded, so basically they can only offer a year of control if they deal him now or if they dealt him next offseason. So with his value already low, it makes sense to wait if you're trying to maximize your return, especially with more hitter friendly dimensions in the new ballpark.

    Santana and Bay probably have negative value considering Santana's health and Bay's production versus the size of their contracts. Even if Santana comes back and is somewhat productive, it's weighted against the fact that he's making 24 million a year. Even if Bay slightly rebounds in the new ballpark, it's weighted against that he's getting 16-18 million a year. We'd probably have to eat at least half of that to get anything resembling a prospect return in either case, and that's if they rebound. If they don't rebound, they're just sunk costs.

    Pelfrey, ehh, he's coming off a 4.7 ERA season in a pitchers park in the NL. The hope is that he rebounds and is putting up another 2008/2010 type season and they can market him as a 2008 Joe Blanton type. But right now he wouldn't return much.

    But I'm quite optimistic with the state of the farm system. They've quietly been building one of the more promising collection of arms in the entire minor leagues with Harvey, Wheeler, Familia, Mejia, ect. They might be a little lacking in high upside bats, but those guys are usually easier to find then pitching. Nevermind another top 15 pick and the Reyes compensation this next draft allowing them to add more talent.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ven0m View Post
    Really, the only guy mentioned who has real trade value right now is Wright.

    Wright's coming off a down year so you'd be selling low on him by dealing him now. And the thing with Wright is his 2013 option is voided if he's traded, so basically they can only offer a year of control if they deal him now or if they dealt him next offseason. So with his value already low, it makes sense to wait if you're trying to maximize your return, especially with more hitter friendly dimensions in the new ballpark.

    Santana and Bay probably have negative value considering Santana's health and Bay's production versus the size of their contracts. Even if Santana comes back and is somewhat productive, it's weighted against the fact that he's making 24 million a year. Even if Bay slightly rebounds in the new ballpark, it's weighted against that he's getting 16-18 million a year. We'd probably have to eat at least half of that to get anything resembling a prospect return in either case, and that's if they rebound. If they don't rebound, they're just sunk costs.

    Pelfrey, ehh, he's coming off a 4.7 ERA season in a pitchers park in the NL. The hope is that he rebounds and is putting up another 2008/2010 type season and they can market him as a 2008 Joe Blanton type. But right now he wouldn't return much.

    But I'm quite optimistic with the state of the farm system. They've quietly been building one of the more promising collection of arms in the entire minor leagues with Harvey, Wheeler, Familia, Mejia, ect. They might be a little lacking in high upside bats, but those guys are usually easier to find then pitching. Nevermind another top 15 pick and the Reyes compensation this next draft allowing them to add more talent.


    obviously I am not talking about htis minute, just that shouldn't the goal be to stock pile some more talent?

    I think the Mets have 3 or 4 guys who are real special in their farm system and then a pretty sizeable group of maybes.

    My thought is, even if the Mets are say 5 games out of 1st or the Wild card around the deadline should they be sellers?

    If 2014 is a target to improve (just pulling that out of the air really) is it a given any of these guys will be on the team? Even if Wright is young and affordable the odds of resigning him seem slim to me, that they would give a long term contract to someone over 30 (I think he'd be 31 after this contract runs out if the team were to pick up his option).

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    Quote Originally Posted by piney View Post
    obviously I am not talking about htis minute, just that shouldn't the goal be to stock pile some more talent?

    I think the Mets have 3 or 4 guys who are real special in their farm system and then a pretty sizeable group of maybes.

    My thought is, even if the Mets are say 5 games out of 1st or the Wild card around the deadline should they be sellers?

    If 2014 is a target to improve (just pulling that out of the air really) is it a given any of these guys will be on the team? Even if Wright is young and affordable the odds of resigning him seem slim to me, that they would give a long term contract to someone over 30 (I think he'd be 31 after this contract runs out if the team were to pick up his option).
    If they're 5+ games out, they likely will be "sellers". I'm certainly not against adding more prospects to the system.

    The issue is, as I stated, what do they have left to sell?

    They can probably get more for Wright next offseason then they can this trading deadline because of his contract stipulations and the new CBA stipulations. If they deal him in July, they're only trading 2 months of Wright (due to a contract provision that allows him to void his 2013 option if traded) with no FA compensation (because in the new CBA, mid-season acquisitions in contract years are not eligible for FA compensation). If they let him play out this year and pick up his 2013 option, then they can sell a full year of Wright, plus potential for FA compensation (as he wouldn't be a mid-season acquisition then). The time to deal Wright isn't July*. It's December.

    (* - Unless someone is absolutely desperate and way overpays)

    Santana and Bay need to have a rebound season, and even if they do rebound, the Mets would still likely need to eat half of their remaining contracts.

    Pelfrey could be a decent chip if he's putting up a 2008/2010 season, but not worth that much if he's putting up a 2009/2011 season.

    Honestly, their best chip this July would be R.A. Dickey. A year and a half of control for WELL below market value, and his numbers the last 2 years are very much #2-3 starter worthy. I think the Mets would prefer to keep him though, awesome clubhouse guy and Knuckleballers can pitch forever, but if someone offers a big deal im assuming theyd listen. But every piece you deal away like that puts you that much further away from contention, so it'd have to be something really worth their while. Rauch and Ramirez i could see returning some decent mid-level guys as well. Everyone always needs relievers in July.
    Last edited by Ven0m; 01-21-2012 at 11:21 AM.

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    The Mets will trade Wright to shed his salary. If Alderson gets something (anything) in return the current owners will be happy.

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