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Thread: DRAFT picks / Conditionally Traded Picks / UFA Compensatory Picks , etc. ~ ~ ~

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    DRAFT picks / Conditionally Traded Picks / UFA Compensatory Picks , etc. ~ ~ ~

    Over the course of the offseason, Iíll be posting a series of articles analyzing statistics and data rather than game film. Iíll also be revisiting last yearís offseason articles to see whether the conclusions drawn were indicative of what was actually going to happen during the season and using that information to try and determine what 2011ís data tells us about what might happen in 2012. However, before the new league year gets underway, Iím going to address some issues on the salary cap, draft picks, contracts and free agency side of things. In a few days, Iíll try and set out a realistic projection for what cap room the Jets are likely to have available once the new league year gets underway, but today Iím looking at the draft choices the Jets will have in the upcoming draft.

    After the jump, Iíll list out all the picks initially held by the Jets, together with details of outstanding trades and potential compensatory picks.

    As ever, if you want to jump in with questions, corrections or speculation, feel free to do so. I am also open to ideas for things youíd like me to cover over the course of the offseason.

    Introduction

    Here, according to WalterFootball.com are the picks that the Jets should hold in the upcoming draft:

    1st Round Ė 16
    2nd Round Ė 15 (47th overall)
    3rd Round Ė 14 (76th overall)
    4th Round Ė 13 (109th overall*)
    5th Round Ė 19 (147th overall*)
    6th Round Ė 18 (178th overall*)
    7th Round Ė 17 (209th overall*)

    However, this does not take into account the outcome of any conditionally traded draft picks or UFA compensatory picks. Therefore, letís see how they will affect the Jetsí haul.

    * Note: The overall position of picks from the fourth round onwards does not take into account compensatory picks at the end of the 3rd-to-7th rounds.

    Conditionally Traded Picks

    The Jets made three trades during the offseason for conditional draft picks. Letís look at each of these individually:

    Derrick Mason:

    Mason was traded to Houston five weeks into the season for a conditional seventh round pick. The conditions were that, in order for the Jets to receive the pick, Mason would need to catch 33 passes over the last 11 games of the season. He ultimately got nowhere near this mark. Outcome: No pick owed to the Jets.

    Dwight Lowery:

    Lowery was traded to Jacksonville before the season began for a conditional sixth round pick. If he failed to meet the conditions, this would revert to a seventh rounder. Unfortunately, the conditions have not, to my knowledge, been officially announced. Based on what the Jets usually do, it could be based on (a) playing time, (b) the Jags re-signing Lowery when his contract expires or (c) some team-based goal. If itís (a) thatís good news for the Jets, because he started several games for them before getting hurt. The Jags struggled in 2011, so (c) would be bad news. If itís (b) or a combination of (a) and (b) that will depend what happens. Even if Lowery goes back to the Jags, they can perhaps get around the conditions by letting him hit free agency and then signing him immediately, as the Saints did with Jonathan Vilma. Outcome: At least a seventh rounder, possibly a sixth owed to the Jets.

    Caleb Schlauderaff:

    Schlauderaff was traded to the Jets for a conditional seventh rounder, although once again the trade conditions have not, to my knowledge, been released. If the conditions are not met, no pick is owed. If this is based on playing time, itís unlikely the condition was met, because Schlauderaff played just 14 snaps. He is under contract for three years, but I suppose the condition could be something like he still has to be on the roster on the first day of the 2012 league year. Outcome: Either the Jets donít owe a pick, or they owe a seventh rounder.

    Taking the three trades together, the best case scenario is that they get an extra sixth rounder and the worst case scenario is that they get nothing because two seventh rounders will cancel each other out.

    UFA Compensatory Picks

    Note: UFA Compensatory Picks are different from the compensatory picks awarded when a team signs a restricted free agent or a franchised player to an offer sheet that isnít matched. This is highly unlikely to apply to the Jets.

    UFA Compensatory Picks are awarded to teams who lost a lot of free agents in the offseason. This is based on a secret formula that teams arenít given, but the process has been going on long enough that weíve got a pretty decent idea of how to project (assuming the NFL has not elected to change the formula, which is theoretically possible). Courtesy of the excellent AdamJT13, we now have enough information to make an informed estimate of the extra picks potentially due to the Jets.

    First, here are some of the main rules:

    - Teams can receive a maximum of four compensatory picks
    - The maximum value of a compensatory pick is a third rounder
    - Compensatory picks are added at the end of each round
    - Only qualifying UFA losses count towards the calculation of how many picks are owed
    - Qualifying UFA gains are offset against UFA losses and picks are only awarded to the extent that losses exceed gains
    - To qualify, you must be an unrestricted free agent whose contract expired (or, in some cases, was voided) at the end of the previous season. RFAís, even RFAís that became UFAís as a result of not being tendered do not qualify and neither do players who were cut, waived or released.
    - Players signed after the end of the free agent signing period (usually the last week in June, but the lockout pushed this to the end of August in 2011) and players released before week 10 by their new teams do not qualify.
    - The draft round value of the players appears to be mainly based on the annual value of their new contract, but playing time and postseason honors factor into things as well. For example, a player failing to have the required amount of playing time could become non-qualifying or a player with postseason honors might get bumped up to a higher round if they are on the bubble.

    So, which of the Jetsí free agency signings and losses were qualifying and where does it leave them when netted out ?

    In terms of free agent gains, the good news is that the Jets donít seem to have any qualifying gains which would otherwise be offset against their losses. Most of their free agent dollars were spent on re-signing players they already owned, which has no effect on the compensatory pick calculation. Those that they did sign before the end of the free agent signing period did not qualify because they were cut by their previous team before their contract expired (Strickland, Mason) or were not with a team at the end of the previous season (Burress).

    In terms of losses, there were plenty, but not all of them were picked up and retained by another team. Therefore the likes of Pryce, Richardson, Laury, Clemens and Gholston do not qualify. Some of their players that got picked up were cut or traded by the Jets rather than seeing their contract expire. Therefore, Cotchery, Taylor, Lowery and Hartsock do not qualify. A couple were RFAís that they decided not to tender, so Steve Weatherford and James Ihedigbo do not qualify. That seems to leave four that potentially qualify, which is the maximum number anyway, as noted above. Letís look at each of these in detail.

    Before we do, though, letís refer back to Adamís post for the approximate 2008 annual salary thresholds he used to accurately determine the appropriate draft round for each qualifying player :

    7th Rounders Ė $0.9m to $2.7m
    6th Rounders Ė $2.7m to $4m
    5th Rounders Ė $4m to $5m
    4th Rounders Ė $5m to $6.5m
    3rd Rounders Ė Over $6.5m

    These numbers applied back in 2008, when the salary cap was $116m and Adam was suggesting that the increase in these thresholds from year to year was more or less in line with the salary cap. Since the 2011 cap was $120.375m, we can apply a 3.8% increase to these figures and hope to be accurate, but the cap in 2009 was $129M, so itís possible that the numbers would have been increased by more than that and then may not have been adjusted back down again for the reduction in the cap last year.

    However, itís probably an accurate enough starting point, so our thresholds kick in at $0.93m, $2.8m, $4.2m, $5.2m and $6.7m. So, letís see where the Jets UFA losses fell:

    Shaun Ellis:

    Ellis got a one year deal for $4m, so he seems to have fallen just short of being a 5th rounder. However, he did play in 14 games, starting 10, so maybe that would be enough to push that up to a 5th rounder. Given that he played less than a third of the total snaps, Iíd say this seems unlikely, but thereís no reason I can see that he shouldnít fetch a sixth rounder.

    Brad Smith:

    Smith got a $15m, four year deal, so his average annual salary comes in at $3.75m. That puts him in the sixth round range and it seems unlikely heíll be bumped up a level because he only played 44 more snaps than Ellis and started five fewer games. This looks certain to be a sixth rounder.

    Drew Coleman:

    Coleman got a three year, $7.4m deal. That puts his average at just below $2.5m, putting him just short of sixth round status. Maybe itís close enough for him to get bumped up a level due to his playing time Ė 16 appearances, four starts, 49.4% snap count Ė but that was the maximum value for the deal, so the base salary might be lower anyway. This looks like a seventh rounder.

    Braylon Edwards:

    Edwards is an interesting case, because itís possible he might not qualify, for a couple of reasons. First of all, his base salary was widely reported as just $1m which is pretty close to our estimated threshold. Secondly, he was released before the season ended. Finally, he did not play much. However, his salary was reported in some places as $1.6m, which leads me to believe he probably had a roster bonus early in the year. Also, he was released before the end of the year, but after week 10, which Adam suggests hasnít stopped players from qualifying in the past. Finally, although he didnít play much, I was surprised to see that he did play 22% of the snaps for the 49ers this year and Adam cites examples of players who have qualified despite having playing time of less than 20% in the past. All this leads me to conclude heíll fetch them a seventh rounder, although had he met his incentives, the return would be greater.

    The actual compensatory picks are usually announced in the third week of March or thereabouts.

    EDIT: Since compiling this article, Iíve found another site that did a projection here. The good news is that their take basically agrees with my best case scenario.

    Conclusions

    Overall, the Jets currently have one pick in each round and, based on my projections, they will have several additional late round picks. I would suggest that they will get three seventh rounders and two sixth rounders, although the best case scenario might see one of the seventh rounders improved to a sixth (based on Lowery meeting his conditions) and itís not inconceivable that Ellis could be worth a fifth rounder rather than a sixth. The worst case scenario might see Edwards not qualifying, Lowery only earning them a seventh and Schlauderaff costing them a pick. Even this would still net them two sixths and a seventh in addition to the picks they already have in each round.

    These picks could come in useful, like when the Jets drafted Slauson in 2009 or could be packaged to move up in an earlier round and target someone specific. Maybe they could even trade one for a veteran player, although I doubt they would want to add a player with a high salary in this manner. No matter how accurate the projections, it figures to be a busy offseason.

    We will of course update you once more concrete information is known.

    > [url]http://www.thejetsblog.com/2012/01/10/bga-special-draft-picks-rundown/#more-49793[/url]

  2. #2
    Good post, but it should be made clear compensatory picks are non-transferable. They can not be used to "trade up" in the draft, or traded for veteran players as the OP suggests. It does however give the Jets more firepower if they want to move their own regular picks.

  3. #3
    [QUOTE=mtrjets;4365075]Good post, but it should be made clear compensatory picks are non-transferable. They can not be used to "trade up" in the draft, or traded for veteran players as the OP suggests. It does however give the Jets more firepower if they want to move their own regular picks.[/QUOTE]

    Correct... And the same exact point I came away wanting to make. The end of that writeup suggests that you can trade the compensatory picks which isn't the case.

    Either way, good to get more picks. A couple of them likely won't make the roster, but they are important nonetheless.

  4. #4
    the criticism on tanny's drafts when he trades up was that he only came away with 3 and 4 player drafts. he can use his own late rounders now to move around and still have the compensatory picks to draft developmental guys. that's what was missing from earlier drafts. the jets teams a few years ago signed guys but didn't have talent that other teams wanted.

  5. #5
    [URL="https://twitter.com/#%21/adbrandt"][B]Andrew Brandt[/B] @[B]adbrandt[/B] [/URL] League meetings late March. RT [URL="https://twitter.com/#%21/clintiu345"]@[B]clintiu345[/B][/URL] when are comp picks announced?

  6. #6
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    [QUOTE=C Mart;4365680][URL="https://twitter.com/#%21/adbrandt"][B]Andrew Brandt[/B] @[B]adbrandt[/B] [/URL] League meetings late March. RT [URL="https://twitter.com/#%21/clintiu345"]@[B]clintiu345[/B][/URL] when are comp picks announced?[/QUOTE]i think in april :dunno:

  7. #7
    Comp picks are usually announced at the league meetings in late March.

    It's a godsend that we get comp picks so that Tanny cannot waste the dam things by tossing them away cheaply or foolishly. I hope he doesn't toss away our other picks on the cheap to trade up either. The Jets need an 11 pick draft for once. We have a lot of holes and a lot of depth holes to fill out.

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    [QUOTE=Beerfish;4365816]Comp picks are usually announced at the league meetings in late March.

    It's a godsend that we get comp picks so that Tanny cannot waste the dam things by tossing them away cheaply or foolishly. I hope he doesn't toss away our other picks on the cheap to trade up either. The Jets need an 11 pick draft for once. We have a lot of holes and a lot of depth holes to fill out.[/QUOTE]" Comp picks are usually announced at the league meetings in late March.... "


    ~ ~ thanx Beerfish ! !
    :P

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    Today, teams can begin to use the franchise tag on their free agents with the deadline to complete said tagging set for March 5. According to The Star-Ledger, the Jets are not expected to tag nose tackle Sione Pouha. Pouha, who is an unrestricted free agent, is an unlikely candidate because the Jets are constricted by the amount of cap space they have at their disposal.

    The window for teams to apply the franchise tag to their own free agents begins today. Nose tackle Sione Pouha, the Jetsí top free agent, is not expected to be tagged, per a person with knowledge of the teamís strategy.

    The Jets are tight on salary cap space ó they are about even with the cap as of today, ESPN reported ó so tagging Pouha may not make sense from a financial standpoint. Working on a multi-year deal before free agency opens on March 13 makes more sense, though Pouhaís age, 33, could be a factor in the length of the deal.

    With a limited amount of cap space it will be difficult, but not completely impossible, for the Jets to go out and attain or retain talent. Pouha is the Jetsí top free agent, despite his age, as he has shown to be a dominant force on the defensive line, a staple of any Ryan defense. Furthermore, questions still surround Kenrick Ellis and his development and possible deportation depending on the outcome of his pending court case.

    Pouha has earned a long term contract however, it will be interesting to see how the Jets go about conducting negotiations with a restricted cap all the while being mindful of future cap charges.

    > [url]http://www.thejetsblog.com/2012/02/20/jets-not-expected-to-tag-sione/[/url]

  10. #10
    [QUOTE=Beerfish;4365816]Comp picks are usually announced at the league meetings in late March.

    It's a godsend that we get comp picks so that Tanny cannot waste the dam things by tossing them away cheaply or foolishly. I hope he doesn't toss away our other picks on the cheap to trade up either. The Jets need an 11 pick draft for once. We have a lot of holes and a lot of depth holes to fill out.[/QUOTE]

    Totally agree - these short drafts have landed us some great players (Revis, Harris) but depth has been a big problem....unless Tanny sees a trade up that he cant pass up (ala Revis/Harris) I am hoping he keeps most if not all picks this year

  11. #11
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    Billy Winn, DT/DE, Boise State

    > [url]http://www.ganggreennation.com/2012/2/20/2812600/scouting-the-draft-billy-winn-dt-de-boise-state[/url]

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    What Jets, Giants will be looking for at Scouting Combine

    > [url]http://www.nypost.com/p/sports/more_sports/their_combined_powers_6QNjrnGme7mFfjQMfWTGxO[/url]

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    Jets' brass talks need at safety position

    The Jets, like many teams, have a need at safety. For Rex Ryan's defense, which faces the Patriots' elite tight end duo twice a year, it's even more important. "The fact that we have a couple guys that are up, that's a position that we will look at," GM Mike Tannenbaum said from the NFL Scouting Combine. Safeties Jim Leonhard and Brodney Pool will be unrestricted free agents, with Leonhard coming off a season-ending injury for the second year in a row. Tannenbaum and Ryan both mentioned Eric Smith as a starter. "I admired the play of our safeties this year," Ryan said. "Eric Smith played hurt the majority of the season. Ö Smith is a starter. Tracy Wilson is the only other guy under contract. Obviously we need more than those two to play with." Some have pegged Alabama's Mark Barron, the best safety in the draft, to go to the Jets at the No. 16 spot in the first round. This draft is not deep with safeties, so the Jets might look to pounce on one early.

    > [url]http://www.profootballweekly.com/2012/02/25/jets-brass-talks-need-at-safety-position[/url]

  14. #14
    [QUOTE=kelly;4377739]Jets' brass talks need at safety position

    The Jets, like many teams, have a need at safety. For Rex Ryan's defense, which faces the Patriots' elite tight end duo twice a year, it's even more important. "The fact that we have a couple guys that are up, that's a position that we will look at," GM Mike Tannenbaum said from the NFL Scouting Combine. Safeties Jim Leonhard and Brodney Pool will be unrestricted free agents, with Leonhard coming off a season-ending injury for the second year in a row. Tannenbaum and Ryan both mentioned Eric Smith as a starter. "I admired the play of our safeties this year," Ryan said. "Eric Smith played hurt the majority of the season. Ö Smith is a starter. Tracy Wilson is the only other guy under contract. Obviously we need more than those two to play with." Some have pegged Alabama's Mark Barron, the best safety in the draft, to go to the Jets at the No. 16 spot in the first round. This draft is not deep with safeties, so the Jets might look to pounce on one early.

    > [url]http://www.profootballweekly.com/2012/02/25/jets-brass-talks-need-at-safety-position[/url][/QUOTE]

    oh boy. let's take the guy with the double hernia!

  15. #15
    If Ryan is actually serious by saying smith is a starter I have just jumped into the fire Rex camp. I don't care how much you like a guys attitude, try , smarts whatever if he just cannot compete athletically at this level he is NOT a friggin starter. If Smith was timed ala the combine right now the guy would probably run a 4.85.

  16. #16
    [QUOTE=Beerfish;4377860]If Ryan is actually serious by saying smith is a starter I have just jumped into the fire Rex camp. I don't care how much you like a guys attitude, try , smarts whatever if he just cannot compete athletically at this level he is NOT a friggin starter. If Smith was timed ala the combine right now the guy would probably run a 4.85.[/QUOTE]

    when they say someone is a starter and that starter sucks, then they're about to sign another guy. that's the tanny way. say great things about the guy before he loses his job.

  17. #17
    [QUOTE=augustiniak;4377865]when they say someone is a starter and that starter sucks, then they're about to sign another guy. that's the tanny way. say great things about the guy before he loses his job.[/QUOTE]

    We can only hope.

  18. #18
    [QUOTE=Beerfish;4377871]We can only hope.[/QUOTE]

    "kellen clemens is our guy..."

    "vlad ducasse will compete for the starting RT spot..."

  19. #19
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    Todd McShay On The Jets #16 Selection

    ESPN draft Guru Todd McShay talks about the Jets selection and what they may do with it.

    "Mark Barron would be a great fit there. The Thing about Barron is there is no aspect of the game that he doesn't do well. He's not the best cover safety if you will and he has some limitations in terms of man to man but he can cover the tight end, he has good range in terms of being back and being the high man in the three defensive back look........I just love the way he plays the game"

    "Defensive ends, outside linebackers, I think the value is going to be in the second round.......Ingram another shorter defensive end who projects as a outside linebacker in the 3-4 scheme I think he'll be off the board somewhere top 10 top 12 and Upshaw shortly thereafter"

    Now you guys know what I think about the possibility of taking Barron at #16 which is what McShay is suggesting here. I just think that would be a reach for a player coming off a double hernia who McShay admits has limitations in coverage and especially in man to man coverage. If we are taking Barron and we are sold on taking Barron, Mike T better be exploring options to trade back as Barron at #16 is a reach in my honest opinion.

    > [url]http://www.ganggreennation.com/2012/3/1/2836307/todd-mcshay-on-the-jets-16-selection[/url]

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