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Thread: Consumers not fooled by govít. stats

  1. #1
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    Consumers not fooled by govít. stats

    Consumers not fooled by govít. stats

    Last Updated: 1:35 AM, February 16, 2012

    Posted: 1:03 AM, February 16, 2012
    John Crudele

    This wonít shock regular readers of my column, although the ďexpertsĒ seemed to be stunned.

    Consumers, it turns out, were a lot less optimistic in early February, according to a University of Michigan survey. And they didnít spend nearly as much during Christmas or in January as the geniuses who follow this stuff for a living thought.

    And ó surprise! ó the Federal Reserve yesterday showed more nervousness than expected in the minutes of its recent meeting.

    What? They arenít thrilled that so many jobs were created in January?

    Look, I already explained this to you several times. There really werenít 243,000 new jobs created during the first month of the year. But there were 2.68 million jobs lost.

    The positive figure was derived solely from favorable seasonal adjustments.

    Or, as Calculus99 wrote on CNBC.com: ďPerhaps the reason why the consumers are feeling gloomy is because they donít see the jobs that the statisticians tell everyone are being created.Ē

    Now you understand.

    But itís going to get trickier.

    In a normal year, the economy picks up statistically in the spring and then swoons in the summer. This year ó because the seasonal adjustments are getting botched and the weather this winter has been warmer than usual ó there might actually be a dip in economic activity this spring.

    Thatíll make the nine months leading up to the election a whole lot more interesting for all involved.

    It turns out the seasonal adjustments were so misguided in January that they overwhelmed the one thing thatís been driving (artificial) job growth these past few years. Iím talking about the Birth/Death Model of make-believe jobs.

    The Labor Department removed a huge block of 367,000 jobs it thinks, but canít prove, disappeared in January as companies quietly went out of business. But the assumption about the seasons outweighed the assumption about invisible birth/death jobs.

    You know what they say about assuming ó well, two assumptions makes a statistician a double ass.

    All of this could cause consternation in the stock market, for which there currently is little enthusiasm except on the part of professional traders.

    And if the pros canít keep stocks up during the upcoming period of economic bewilderment, watch out!

    I could end up as the next president. (Donald Trump can be my vice president if Lady Gaga is too busy touring.)

    ***

    At least I have a plan: The Crudele Plan for saving the economy will soon be presented to the Republicans. Why, you ask, not the Democrats?

    Because all the Democrats that I and Eric Rosenfeld, head of Crescendo Partners, tried to contact wouldnít give us the time of day.

    The plan involves stimulating the economy and the housing market by allowing people to use personal retirement plans to invest in real estate.

    No new taxes are involved in the Crudele Plan, and no increase in the deficit will be experienced.

    ================================================== ========

  2. #2
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    If Calculus99 says it, it must be true

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    The economy is improving and we are going to see lose monetary policy around the world for at least another year. This is the time people should be taking on debt and buying. Inflation coupled with cheap credit isn't going to last.

    People sell low and buy high, they are saving at a very high rate right now when borrowing rates are low and interest on savings are virtually none existent. The American public generally is way behind the curve and will get their ass handed to them again.

    Borrow and buy stuff now and save later when rates start going up and prices go up.

    Look at the stock market, consumers, the American public bailed at the lowest levels and most of them missed the biggest rally of their entire life time only to dip their toes back in where they were 5 years ago.

    I would look at the American consumer and do the opposite stay thin, exercise and buy crap when they are saving. Get fat, let your arteries clog and save when they are buying crap.
    Last edited by Winstonbiggs; 02-17-2012 at 08:53 AM.

  4. #4
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    Quote Originally Posted by piney View Post
    If Calculus99 says it, it must be true
    I must commend you on your playing of the PlumberKhan Card: with no real rebuttal, make a sarcastic comment.

  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by Winstonbiggs View Post
    The economy is improving and we are going to see lose monetary policy around the world for at least another year. This is the time people should be taking on debt and buying. Inflation coupled with cheap credit isn't going to last.

    People sell low and buy high, they are saving at a very high rate right now when borrowing rates are low and interest on savings are virtually none existent. The American public generally is way behind the curve and will get their ass handed to them again.

    Borrow and buy stuff now and save later when rates start going up and prices go up.

    Look at the stock market, consumers, the American public bailed at the lowest levels and most of them missed the biggest rally of their entire life time only to dip their toes back in where they were 5 years ago.

    I would look at the American consumer and do the opposite stay thin, exercise and buy crap when they are saving. Get fat, let your arteries clog and save when they are buying crap.


    WB, I hate to say this, b/c I know my opinion means nothing here, but I feel you are the voice of the moderate, realistic JI poli forum poster.

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