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Thread: Dow hit 13,000 today

  1. #21
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    If you didn't panic sell at the bottom and instead dollar cost averaged down like a smart investor, you should be doing very well right now.

  2. #22
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    [QUOTE=parafly;4375793]If you didn't panic sell at the bottom and instead dollar cost averaged down like a smart investor, you should be doing very well right now.[/QUOTE]

    not NECESSARILY TRUE..... if you bought in mid 2007 , you could dollar cost average all you want and still have faired poorly. i.e....most bond funds outperformed you.

  3. #23
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    [QUOTE=southparkcpa;4375804]not NECESSARILY TRUE..... if you bought in mid 2007 , you could dollar cost average all you want and still have faired poorly. i.e....most bond funds outperformed you.[/QUOTE]

    How do you figure? Of course, it depends on what you were buying, but for the most part, if you were buying in regularly when DOW and S&P 500 were half their current value, you should be doing quite well right now.

  4. #24
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    [QUOTE=parafly;4375821]How do you figure? Of course, it depends on what you were buying, but for the most part, if you were buying in regularly when DOW and S&P 500 were half their current value, you should be doing quite well right now.[/QUOTE]

    On July 27, 2007 , if you bought the S and P 500 (ETF for example) you paid $154, today it closes at under $140. If you bought it at Nov 2008 you paid only 80.

    My point being...if you bought at the wrong time....DCA wont save you.

  5. #25
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    [QUOTE=southparkcpa;4375884]On July 27, 2007 , if you bought the S and P 500 (ETF for example) you paid $154, today it closes at under $140. If you bought it at Nov 2008 you paid only 80.

    My point being...if you bought at the wrong time....DCA wont save you.[/QUOTE]

    There is no "wrong time" with DCA...if you stick with it.

  6. #26
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    [QUOTE=southparkcpa;4375804]not NECESSARILY TRUE..... if you bought in mid 2007 , you could dollar cost average all you want and still have faired poorly. i.e....most bond funds outperformed you.[/QUOTE]

    Thats why you DCA into a balanced portfolio of equities and bonds.

  7. #27
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    [QUOTE=FF2;4375915]Thats why you DCA into a balanced portfolio of equities and bonds.[/QUOTE]

    Agreed. Google a guy named Robert Bengin. He has done some GREAT work on balanced portfolios. For example, a 50/50 mix has NEVER lost money over any 5 year stretch.

    Good academic analysis.

  8. #28
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    [QUOTE=FF2;4375911]There is no "wrong time" with DCA...if you stick with it.[/QUOTE]

    Not really true if you aren't diversified. DCA into DOW over a 10 year period starting right before 911 and the results are trounced by a good BOND index.

    Now DCA into a 65/35 portfolio including international, high yield etc..you have done OK.

    Diversification matters a LOT. As I know, you know.

  9. #29
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    [QUOTE=southparkcpa;4375924]Not really true if you aren't diversified. DCA into DOW over a 10 year period starting right before 911 and the results are trounced by a good BOND index.

    Now DCA into a 65/35 portfolio including international, high yield etc..you have done OK.

    Diversification matters a LOT. As I know, you know.[/QUOTE]

    Agreed.

  10. #30
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    [QUOTE=southparkcpa;4375884]On July 27, 2007 , if you bought the S and P 500 (ETF for example) you paid $154, today it closes at under $140. If you bought it at Nov 2008 you paid only 80.

    My point being...if you bought at the wrong time....DCA wont save you.[/QUOTE]

    If you bought at $154, kept buying all the way down to $80, and kept buying all the way back up to the current $140, you are well ahead at this point. As a CPA, this should be a very basic concept for you to understand.

    [QUOTE=FF2;4375911]There is no "wrong time" with DCA...if you stick with it.[/QUOTE]

    Exactly.

  11. #31
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    [QUOTE=parafly;4375940]If you bought at $154, kept buying all the way down to $80, and kept buying all the way back up to the current $140, you are well ahead at this point. As a CPA, this should be a very basic concept for you to understand.



    Exactly.[/QUOTE]

    Your example assumes we have a strong comeback. Not certain you are correct. The S and P from 2000 to 2010 had basically NO RETURN except dividends. DCA into something that is flat over your DCA period and you will be flat. BTW..I am a CFP as well. I manage money for a living, I get your point, simply trying to say it AINT the way it used to be anymore.

    I DCA ALL the time .... I do it for my clients All the time. I am simply saying if you DCA into a $hit fund or have the WRONG time frame, DCA doesn't matter.

    extreme example..DCA into a financial services fund.

  12. #32
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    And this is why the world is so screwed up.

  13. #33
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    Holy Printing Presses Batman! Masses of liquidity, Central Banks shovelling out money like no tomorrow and stock markets actually go up. Who woulda thunk it? :rolleyes:

  14. #34
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    [QUOTE=Black Death;4376167]Holy Printing Presses Batman! Masses of liquidity, Central Banks shovelling out money like no tomorrow and stock markets actually go up. Who woulda thunk it? :rolleyes:[/QUOTE]

    Printing presses......the only real difference between U.S and Greece.

  15. #35
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    [QUOTE=southparkcpa;4376179]Printing presses......the only real difference between U.S and Greece.[/QUOTE]

    Yep that's the "only real" difference. :rolleyes:

  16. #36
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    [QUOTE=southparkcpa;4376179]Printing presses......the only real difference between U.S and Greece.[/QUOTE]

    Their debt/GDP is approx 150%....ours is 101%. The scary part is Obama couldn't care less about the deficit, as his budget laughbly doubles down on his failed spend happy policies. Thank god for the Tea Party is all I can say...without them the Republicans wouldn't have taken back the House in '10 and that ignorant turd Pelosi would still be Speaker.

  17. #37
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    [QUOTE=Tucker134;4376208]Their debt/GDP is approx 150%....ours is 101%. The scary part is Obama couldn't care less about the deficit, as his budget laughbly doubles down on his failed spend happy policies. Thank god for the Tea Party is all I can say...without them the Republicans wouldn't have taken back the House in '10 and that ignorant turd Pelosi would still be Speaker.[/QUOTE]

    Understood...but anyone with any understanding of economics would see this as unsustainable. It is the largest ratio ever by the US and shows NO signs of stopping.

    When the news describes Greece riots by 40 and 50 year olds retired on government pensions crying for more spending it simply reminds me of the U.S. When the next 10 years of baby boomers hitting Soc Sec comes full force...we'll see.

    Only those who benefit see it as OK. The dept of Energy, created in the early 70s to rid our dependence on oil? 5,000 employees later and well, here we are. THAT my friend is government.

    [url]http://www.dailymarkets.com/economy/2010/07/21/the-total-us-debt-to-gdp-ratio-is-now-worse-than-in-the-great-depression/[/url]

  18. #38
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    [QUOTE=southparkcpa;4376214]Understood...but anyone with any understanding of economics would see this as unsustainable. It is the largest ratio ever by the US and shows NO signs of stopping.

    When the news describes Greece riots by 40 and 50 year olds retired on government pensions crying for more spending it simply reminds me of the U.S. When the next 10 years of baby boomers hitting Soc Sec comes full force...we'll see.

    Only those who benefit see it as OK. The dept of Energy, created in the early 70s to rid our dependence on oil? 5,000 employees later and well, here we are. THAT my friend is government.

    [url]http://www.dailymarkets.com/economy/2010/07/21/the-total-us-debt-to-gdp-ratio-is-now-worse-than-in-the-great-depression/[/url][/QUOTE]

    Which begs the question -- is GOVERNMENT incapable of effectively accomplishing what they set out to do, or is MANKIND incapable of being altruistic enough to run a government the way it is intended to be run?

    Either way, it's proof positive that it's ignorant at best to think the gov't will EVER be the answer to a nation's problems . . .

  19. #39
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    [QUOTE=OCCH;4376257...it's proof positive that it's ignorant at best to think the gov't will EVER be the answer to a nation's problems . . .[/QUOTE]

    So...what is?

    Jesus?

    L. Ron Hubbard?

    42?

    :dunno:

  20. #40
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    [QUOTE=PlumberKhan;4376346]So...what is?

    Jesus? -- Yes, but Scripture already tells me most people won't accept that.

    L. Ron Hubbard? -- A pretty big step down, no?

    42? -- As soon as I find myself hitchiking through the galaxy, it's the first answer I'm turning to;)

    :dunno:[/QUOTE]

    More to the point, I just can't fathom how people (you?) think more gov't is a good thing. It's their job to GOVERN, not produce social equity. Even if they mean well, it's just not a realistic endgame, yet trillions of dollars later we still don't seem to get it . . .

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