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Thread: Its still the economy, stupid.

  1. #1
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    Its still the economy, stupid.

    Not out of the woods
    Flash to pundits: It’s still the economy, stupid!

    by John Crudele

    Last Updated: 1:01 AM, February 28, 2012

    Posted: 12:31 AM, February 28, 2012


    I don’t even know where to begin discussing all the stupid things being said now about the economy.

    [B]The dumbest seems to be this: The economy is getting better, so it will no longer be a big issue in the upcoming presidential election.[/B]

    [U][SIZE="4"]That’s idiotic![/SIZE][/U] :banana:

    In the first place, even if the economy started soaring (which it hasn’t and won’t), people do not cast their vote on how much cash they happen to have in their wallet on the morning of Nov. 6 — Election Day.

    Don’t insult the American electorate by thinking they have such a short attention span.

    [U]And, secondly, anyone who thinks there’s some sort of economic boom coming does not understand what is really happening.[/U]


    There is no guarantee that the slight improvement being shown in our economic statistics will continue. In fact, as I’ve argued in previous columns, there’s a very good chance that the gains won’t hold.

    The modest growth in gross domestic product in the fourth quarter was almost entirely due to the fact that Washington used an unrealistic level of inflation in its calculation.

    And the better-than-expected job growth reported in January really was a mirage. Around 2.65 million jobs were actually lost during the month — which was turned into an surprising jobs gain only after seasonal adjustments.

    The reason: January’s better weather meant fewer layoffs than had been expected.

    Housing figures could be particularly deceptive. New home sales slipped in January, but the National Association of Realtors (which needed to make a big downward correction to its sale figures last year) said January resales rose.

    Because of the nicer weather this winter — compared with snowy Januarys in 2010 and 2011 — buyers probably started looking for homes earlier this year. This would throw off the seasonal adjustments.

    Seasonal adjustments work both ways. For instance, all the homebuyers who went looking in January won’t be searching for a house during the normal spring buying season. This will look like a slump.

    And those harmful adjustments will start showing up as we get closer to the election.

    So get ready for a swarm of political pundits in a few months telling us how the presidential election really will turn on the economy. And they will say it without even a mea culpa.

    *

    The FBI thinks there is still a “widespread problem” with insider trading on Wall Street and that it could take another five years to clean up.

    In fact, FBI sources told reporters yesterday that cases are already being worked on that could stretch out that long.

    The FBI and the US Attorney’s Office in Manhattan have been on what I consider a welcome crusade against those on Wall Street who think they can do anything they want to make a buck.

    Yesterday the FBI released a public service announcement featuring actor Michael Douglas, who as Gordon Gekko in the 1987 movie “Wall Street” made greed look like a virtue. The FBI said Douglas was embarrassed that people made Gekko into a hero.

    David Chaves, an FBI supervisory special agent working on the problem, likened the participation in Wall Street insider trading to organized crime. “If you are not made, you are not going to play,” he said, referring the Mafia’s concept of a “made man.”

    And Chaves said cooperation among those who know about wrongdoing “is significant, very significant.”

    He told WSJ.com that the feds are looking to build insider-trading cases against roughly 120 people on and off the Street.

    So be afraid, all of you out there who are up to no good.

    *

    Warren Buffett says he’d buy up “millions” of single-family homes if it were practical to do so.

    What’s stopping him? He’s got the money. He’s got the credit. And billionaire Buffett certainly has a job — running Berkshire Hathaway. Those are the three basic criteria for making a home purchase.

    So, Warren, shut up and buy houses if you think that’s a wise investment. But don’t go making it sound like real estate is for everyone. That’s how we got into this mess in the first place.

    And while I’m at it, if Buffett thinks he doesn’t pay enough tax, why doesn’t he, as New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie suggests, just send a big, fat check to the Treasury?

    Buffett could have a huge, lottery-type check printed up, go on TV and put his money where his ever-busy mouth is.

  2. #2
    [QUOTE=quantum;4380709]
    Don’t insult the American electorate by thinking they have such a short attention span.[/QUOTE]

    I think this is the key. They DO have a short attention span. They read headlines.

    And if the headline says the economy is improving...it must be true.

  3. #3
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    [QUOTE=FF2®;4380739]I think this is the key. They DO have a short attention span. They read headlines.

    And if the headline says the economy is improving...it must be true.[/QUOTE]

    nah - think Bell Curve

  4. #4
    Lets see. Economy in an weak recovery. Positive headlines for Obama the past month or two. Bitter GOP primary going on. Yet here is yesterdays Rassmussen poll: General Election: Romney vs. Obama Rasmussen Tracking Obama 44, Romney 45 Romney +1

    Imagine the polling when the Romney stops defending his conservative street cred and actually starts going after Obama. The Gas prices are unfortunately going to slow the economy in the next 6 months. Healthcare costs are going up and there has not yet been a focus placed on the damage to quality of care (the REAL worst part) that is all but guaranteed with Obamacare. Romney wins by a comfortable margin.

  5. #5
    People are pissed at the high gas prices, food inflation and overall ****ty economy. They get even more pissed when the media and the government lies to them and tells them it's getting better.

    Hopefully these people outnumber the welfare scum and dead people who plan to vote for Obama in November.

  6. #6
    [QUOTE=chiefst2000;4380773]Lets see. Economy in an weak recovery. Positive headlines for Obama the past month or two. Bitter GOP primary going on. Yet here is yesterdays Rassmussen poll: General Election: Romney vs. Obama Rasmussen Tracking Obama 44, Romney 45 Romney +1

    Imagine the polling when the Romney stops defending his conservative street cred and actually starts going after Obama. The Gas prices are unfortunately going to slow the economy in the next 6 months. Healthcare costs are going up and there has not yet been a focus placed on the damage to quality of care (the REAL worst part) that is all but guaranteed with Obamacare. Romney wins by a comfortable margin.[/QUOTE]

    Here is today:

    General Election: Romney vs. Obama Rasmussen Tracking Obama 46, Romney 43 Obama +3
    Last edited by Mantle & Namath; 03-01-2012 at 01:01 PM.

  7. #7
    [QUOTE=Mantle & Namath;4380900]Here is today:

    General Election: Romney vs. Obama Rasmussen Tracking Obama 46, Romney 43 Obama +3[/QUOTE]

    The polling has been floating in the margin of error for a while now. What happens when the GOP stops attacking each other and focuses on Obama's failures? Obama today is still under 50% approval with 9 months till the election. 2008 showed us that anything can happen in the leadup to an election but all things being equal Obama is looking like a one termer.

  8. #8
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    [QUOTE=chiefst2000;4380923]The polling has been floating in the margin of error for a while now. What happens when the GOP stops attacking each other and focuses on Obama's failures? Obama today is still under 50% approval with 9 months till the election. 2008 showed us that anything can happen in the leadup to an election but all things being equal Obama is looking like a one termer.[/QUOTE]

    Until the primary season is over and Romney chooses a running mate, all of these polls are premature.

    Mark it down now: When he brings Rubio into the fold, Romney will get a big boost. Can't wait for a Rubio-Biden debate. It's gonna be hysterical.

  9. #9
    [QUOTE=chiefst2000;4380923]The polling has been floating in the margin of error for a while now. What happens when the GOP stops attacking each other and focuses on Obama's failures? Obama today is still under 50% approval with 9 months till the election. 2008 showed us that anything can happen in the leadup to an election but all things being equal Obama is looking like a one termer.[/QUOTE]

    Not if you look at head to head state match-ups. The fact Viringia and NC are toss ups should not sit well with Republicans. Maybe even Arizona (though I doubt it) Obama has several paths to 270. Ohio and Florida while still important battlegrounds... they aren't the only one's like they were in the past. There are also some states like New Mexico that Bush won that were battleground states that aren't anymore.

    [url]http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/03/obama-doing-well-in-wisconsin-and-beyond.html[/url]
    Last edited by Mantle & Namath; 03-01-2012 at 02:20 PM.

  10. #10
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    If the economy worsens, Romney most likely wins.
    If the economy stays about the same, it's going to be a close election.
    If the economy continues to improve, Obama wins decisively.

  11. #11
    [QUOTE=Mantle & Namath;4381009]Not if you look at head to head state match-ups. The fact Viringia and NC are toss ups should not sit well with Republicans. Maybe even Arizona (though I doubt it)

    [url]http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/03/obama-doing-well-in-wisconsin-and-beyond.html[/url][/QUOTE]

    The key poll is the approval numbers poll. You have Republicans saying to pollsters that they wont vote for anyone but "their guy". Once the nomination is sewed up the polling will shift. That's why these current numbers are so damning for Obama. These are before the party consolidates behind one candidate. States like Florida, North Carolina and Virginia will all go Red this year. Western States like Nevada and Colorado with their large Mormon population are likely go red as well. Indiana looks solid Red this time. Even traditionally blue Pennsylvania will be in play this year. Obama will need to win in places like Iowa and New Hampshire and definitely Ohio to have a shot.

  12. #12
    [QUOTE=chiefst2000;4381022][B]The key poll is the approval numbers poll.[/B] You have Republicans saying to pollsters that they wont vote for anyone but "their guy". Once the nomination is sewed up the polling will shift. That's why these current numbers are so damning for Obama. These are before the party consolidates behind one candidate. States like Florida, North Carolina and Virginia will all go Red this year. Western States like Nevada and Colorado with their large Mormon population are likely go red as well. Indiana looks solid Red this time. Even traditionally blue Pennsylvania will be in play this year. Obama will need to win in places like Iowa and New Hampshire and definitely Ohio to have a shot.[/QUOTE]

    No it's not. Key is the electoral college which means state by state polls are king. Besides, when a pollster asks Romney vs. Obama or Santorum vs. Obama that's a general election question. Meaning they are the only 2 running.

    A few more points.

    -How can you say states like Florida, NC, and Virginia [B][U]will[/U][/B] go red? Do you have a magic ball? Those states are polling within the margin of error, with Obama winning many. Rasmussen had Obama up 6 in Virginia in a poll last week. And the fact NC and Viringia are battleground states doesn't bode well for Republicans. Pennsylvania has always been in play. Democrats just usually win it by a slim margin, in recent presidential elections anyways. Based on polling coming out of PA. Chances are they will again.

    -Mormons are Republican voters either way. Hispanics who are a much larger portion of the electorate than Mormons will decide Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada.
    Last edited by Mantle & Namath; 03-01-2012 at 02:49 PM.

  13. #13
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    [QUOTE=JetPotato;4380980]Until the primary season is over and Romney chooses a running mate, all of these polls are premature.

    Mark it down now: When he brings Rubio into the fold, Romney will get a big boost. Can't wait for a Rubio-Biden debate. It's gonna be hysterical.[/QUOTE]


    That would be an encouraging ticket. But I wonder what the chances that Rubio would pass are? He might have his eye on '16, no?

  14. #14
    [QUOTE=Mantle & Namath;4381035]No it's not. Key is the electoral college which means state by state polls are king. Besides, when a pollster asks Romney vs. Obama or Santorum vs. Obama that's a general election question. Meaning they are the only 2 running.

    A few more points.

    -How can you say states like Florida, NC, and Virginia [B][U]will[/U][/B] go red? Do you have a magic ball? Those states are polling within the margin of error, with Obama winning many. Rasmussen had Obama up 6 in Virginia in a poll last week. And the fact NC and Viringia are battleground states doesn't bode well for Republicans. Pennsylvania has always been in play. Democrats just usually win it by a slim margin, in recent presidential elections anyways. Based on polling coming out of PA. Chances are they will again.

    -Mormons are Republican voters either way. Hispanics who are a much larger portion of the electorate than Mormons will decide Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada.[/QUOTE]

    Again, go to the STATEWIDE approval numbers for Florida and PA. Head to head doesn't work because if you polled me today and asked Santorum vs Obama Id say other. Santorum supporters do the same when asked a similar question.


    Look at the following chart of States where Obama is over or under 45% approval:

    [IMG]http://whitehouse2012.files.wordpress.com/2012/02/gallupmap22.jpg[/IMG]


    This is what you have to face in the 2012 cycle. If you took States where approval was over 50% the chart would look much worse. I went with the 45% chart because it is likely that things tighten up in an election year.

  15. #15
    News came out recently Rubio was a Mormon before he was a Catholic. Can they have a Mormon and a former Mormon on the same ticket?

  16. #16
    [QUOTE=chiefst2000;4381072]Again, go to the STATEWIDE approval numbers for Florida and PA. [B]Head to head doesn't work because if you polled me today and asked Santorum vs Obama Id say other[/B]. Santorum supporters do the same when asked a similar question.


    Look at the following chart of States where Obama is over or under 45% approval:

    [IMG]http://whitehouse2012.files.wordpress.com/2012/02/gallupmap22.jpg[/IMG]


    This is what you have to face in the 2012 cycle. If you took States where approval was over 50% the chart would look much worse. I went with the 45% chart because it is likely that things tighten up in an election year.[/QUOTE]


    They don't ask other. It's a general election question. The other in that scenario already dropped out. [URL="http://www.santafenewmexican.com/localnews/Obama--Martinez-popular-in-N-M--poll"]Obama is polling 15-20% better than Romney in New Mexico[/URL]. That state isn't in play in 2012. Your map has it red. Elections are a choice between one guy over another. Head to head state matchups are king.
    Last edited by Mantle & Namath; 03-01-2012 at 03:28 PM.

  17. #17
    This is a chart I agree with in terms of how I see this election going:

    [IMG]http://whitehouse2012.files.wordpress.com/2012/02/kempiteprediction.jpg?w=460[/IMG]

    My unbiased political observer impersonation take on it is: Obama will likely need to sweep the light beige section of States. He is likely to win in places like NM and PA. Even WI and MI will likely go blue. The whole thing will come down to Ohio and Colorado. Basically if Florida goes Red Obama will need to win in both Ohio and Colorado to finish things. If Ohio goes red Obama loses for sure.

  18. #18
    [QUOTE=chiefst2000;4381085]This is a chart I agree with in terms of how I see this election going:

    [IMG]http://whitehouse2012.files.wordpress.com/2012/02/kempiteprediction.jpg?w=460[/IMG]

    My unbiased political observer impersonation take on it is: Obama will likely need to sweep the light beige section of States. He is likely to win in places like NM and PA. Even WI and MI will likely go blue. The whole thing will come down to Ohio and Colorado. Basically if Florida goes Red Obama will need to win in both Ohio and Colorado to finish things. If Ohio goes red Obama loses for sure.[/QUOTE]
    Michigan, Wisconsin and New Mexico aren't battlegrounds if you believe polling.

  19. #19
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    [QUOTE=brady's a catcher;4381065]That would be an encouraging ticket. But I wonder what the chances that Rubio would pass are? He might have his eye on '16, no?[/QUOTE]

    Rubio knows that if he is on the ticket and loses, he's still on the 2016 ticket. And if he wins, he's the Presidential candidate in 8 years.

  20. #20
    [url]http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/partisan_trends[/url]

    In another bad omen for Obama take a look at party affiliation shifts over the past 2 years.

    2010 Self identified Democrats 35.1%
    2010 Self Identified Republicans 32.1%

    2012 Self identified Democrats 32.4%
    2012 Self Identified Republicans 36%

    The landscape has changed a bit since the last election.

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