as opposed to...?
Jobless claims also rose more than expected, climbing to 386,000 for the week, while the current account deficit also expanded.
Meanwhile, the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly rose last week, government data on Thursday showed, suggesting persistent weakness in the labor market after stumbling badly in recent months.
I won't start another thread about foreclosures being up also. They must happen to reset the market
Last edited by Jungle Shift Jet; 06-14-2012 at 04:00 PM.
as opposed to...?
With commodity prices dropping hard the deflation we are currently in is going to allow for massive influxes of capital in Europe, Asia and the US over the summer. I expect this is going to help the current Administration get re-elected easily.
Bad news in June is not going to create the Republican landslide.
We have deflation? Really? According to recent reports, the CPI is up 1.6% year over year effective May. Clearly an improvment over 2011 vs 2010 but hardly deflation.
Massive influxes into the U.S.? With OUR uncerrtainty? That's why all the U.S. companies are hoarding cash, right?
The Chinese are already suspicious of our economy and have warned us about our recklessness.
And the Emir wants us to "double down" on our stimulus spending. Double down. A nice gambling term. Which is exactly what the chief idiot wants to do with our money.
Not only is the weekly number for claims up, but you neglect to mention it hardly includes the droves of recent college grads who will be wallowing on the sidelines with their fine degrees in psychology, sociology, art studies, women's studies, black studies and cultural anthropology. They are armed and ready with debt - to be paid by the gov (meaning contributing taxpayers.
We should be doing massive infrastructure projects right now. Interest rates are as low as they can go labor is cheap and raw materials are falling. The fact that our government is dysfunctional doesnít mean the Fed the Chinese and the EU wonít act.
The Chinese are so suspicious of us they're devaluing against the dollar for the first time in years.
We certainly aren't going to drive demand for the private sector by letting all these people sit on the sidelines collecting benifits and pressuring wages down.
Look at CPI. Oil is down because demand is down because output is down.
What is needed and what will be are different. Look at the layoffs. Nokia is the latest. The list is endless. I do not have stock in ONE company which has not steadily reduced head count over the last 4 years. And I only buy dominant companies in their category.
People are not buying. Why? Prices are up. Do you ever read business news or watch business TV. I have not heard a SINGLE CEO say his company is hiring. Including Jeff Imeldt, the Prez's job czar and CEO of GE, who has exported jobs like crazy. Get real instread of kissing the Hawaiian's butt.
I actually couldn't care less for me or my children. I am just fine and they are. I do have concern about DECENT ( a word you used elsewhere) people who work and are being killed by parasites and parasitic policies of socialism.
winston is spot on with the deflation talk; and he's right about the Govt chance to spend correctly. You guys that scream about socialism forget that "you and your kids" are a teensy piece of the puzzle. There is a middle ground somewhere.
Deflationary World FEB 1, 2012 usnews
February 1, 2012 RSS Feed Print With interest rates at zero and forecasts for very low economic growth, fears that the United States could experience falling prices, or deflation, have reappeared.
Experts generally do not expect prices to actually fall, but it's not something they totally disregard. And for retirees, deflation sharply increases the need to find reliable, if modest, investment returns.
[See Investors Scramble as Fed Extends Low Rate Policy.]
Falling prices may seem to be a consumer bargain. But when prices fall, consumers tend to put off discretionary purchases in anticipation that prices will be even lower in the future. The decline in purchasing eventually hurts corporate profits, wages, and personal incomes. Paying debts with shrinking incomes becomes increasingly difficult, which leads to further spending cuts. And on it goes, in a reinforcing cycle of shrinking economic activity.
Japan suffered an extended period of deflation in the 1990s. Today, the country's economy continues to be bottled up in a low inflation-low growth stagnation that continues to sap its economy.
"We don't expect deflation," says Ryan Sweet, a senior economist at Moody's Analytics. "But even though the odds of deflation are low, you don't want to discount them. If there is a hiccup in growth or another [economic] shock, then the odds of deflation would increase."
Sweet says the extremely aggressive pro-growth policies of the Fed reflect, in part, its desire to prevent falling prices. "You can tell from the Fed that they're worried," Sweet says. "The Fed has a [policy] playbook for dealing with inflation. They don't have a playbook on deflation."
[See Senior Finances and the Great Entitlements Debate.]
Housing is a large part of the U.S. economy that's already exhibiting symptoms of a deflationary environment. Home prices have continued to fall even as the economy has recovered. The recession and millions of defaulted mortgages explain much of the problem. But one reason consumer demand for buying homes may be falling is that consumers are holding off purchases because they expect prices to be lower in the future.
Generally, however, consumers are not showing any signs of deflationary purchase behavior, says Scott Hoyt, Moody's senior director of consumer economics. Low rates of inflation are not having an impact on consumer behavior, he says. "I think right now, we're actually in the sweet spot" where inflation is not a big factor in the timing of consumer purchases. Moody's is forecasting weak consumer spending early in 2012 with stronger gains later in the year.
Beyond home prices, U.S. inflation "is still in solidly positive territory" says Alec Young, global equity strategist at Standard & Poor's Capital IQ. Total prices have been rising at 3 percent annual rates and so-called "core inflation," which excludes temporary price increases, is running at a 2 percent annual level.
That's also the long-term inflation target adopted at last week's Federal Reserve meeting. The central bank also said it was extending its commitment to very low interest rates through the end of 2014. Its actions reflected forecasts for an extended period of weak growth. And it's this outlook, along with continued concerns over recessions and debt defaults in Europe, that has raised the odds that deflation might occur.
[See Rising Senior Wealth Not True for All.]
"You hear as much fear about inflation as you do deflation," Young says. "But I think the thing that keeps the deflation fear alive" is the record-low yields on longer-term U.S. Treasury bonds, especially the 10-year bond. "The 10-year treasury yield is just uncomfortably low" and should be higher based on other recent investment trends, he says. In Tuesday trading, 10-year treasuries ended the day yielding 1.83 percent.
Even with historically low yields, bonds are still a recommended investment for a deflationary environment. "Even when yields are low, you can get appreciation in bond prices," Young says. Because of concern that a weak economy would hurt corporate profits, prudent investors might want to stick to U.S. government bonds and high-rated municipal bonds.
Dividends are also recommended for an environment of low inflation or deflation. Locking in even a modest income yield of, say, 3 percent, makes sense when real interest rates are negative. "It's not just companies with high yields, but companies with a history of raising them," S&P's Young says. The S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrat Index includes large companies that have raised dividends every year for at least 25 years.
International diversification also can be a sound strategy. Because Europe's economies are closer to experiencing deflation than the United States, Young favors higher-growth emerging markets. "Emerging markets can work well as a deflationary hedge," he says.
Beyond investments, the major imperative of a deflationary economy is to carry as little debt as possible. Falling incomes and prices actually increase the real cost of fixed-price debt. Seniors on fixed incomes could fare well in a deflationary economy if their expenses don't increase. But having a mortgage or other consumer debt makes it hard to balance a budget when prices are falling.
is crumbling, that is because gov't has diverted funds to all manner of exorbitant salaries and pensions...furthermore this is not the days of the NRA/WPA/CCC, union pugs thugs and mugs won't let the average guy roll up and get skilled / participate in construction-those who hypothetically would have to be paid prevailing top $ wages.
Collecting unemployment doesn't drive wages down, hiring illegals to do work does.
Construction was a huge part of our employment picture when housing was booming. It's going to take years for inventory to be absorbed. Manufacturing is doing well in the US but we don't need as many people to produce stuff and even in boom times it's going to employ less people.
There is no reason to throw money away on unemployment and welfare benefits when there are tons of projects that can productively employ people and provide some long term return to the public. This slash and burn mentality is chocking the country. There is no reason we canít have some reasonable stimulus coupled with a long term deficit reduction plan and tax reform other than a lack of political will on both sides of the aisle.
Last edited by Winstonbiggs; 06-15-2012 at 04:56 PM.
"That's how we built this country Ė together. We constructed railroads and highways, the Hoover Dam and the Golden Gate Bridge. We did those things together," he said, in a passage that was presumably meant to be inspirational but was delivered with the faintly petulant air of a great man resentful at having to point out the obvious, yet again. "Together, we touched the surface of the moon, unlocked the mystery of the atom, connected the world through our own science and imagination. We haven't done these things as Democrats or Republicans. We've done them as Americans." -B.O.
Beyond the cheap dissembling, there was a bleak, tragic quality to this paragraph. Does anyone really believe a second-term Obama administration is going to build anything? Yes, you, madam, the gullible sap at the back in the faded hope'n'change T-shirt. You seriously think your guy is going to put up another Hoover Dam? Let me quote one Deanna Archuleta, Obama's Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Interior, in a speech to Democratic environmentalists in Nevada:
"You will never see another federal dam."
That seems pretty straightforward. America is out of the dam business. Just as the late Roman Empire no longer built aqueducts, so we no longer build dams. In fairness to the Romans, they left it to the barbarians to sweep in and destroy the existing aqueducts, whereas in America the government destroys the dams (some 200 this century) as an act of environmental virtue hailed by the Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Interior.
I can assure you it's not your psych degree that got you where you are. Hard work. Mst taking these majors are on the glide.
Ultimately it's communication skills. And leadership.
Doggin, I believe, has a degree in drama at a ok college. Then the law degree at Columbia. He had a strategy to that. I have mentioned that most lawyers are dramatic. LOL.