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Thread: Great Article RE: Older Wide Receivers

  1. #1
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    Great Article RE: Older Wide Receivers

    Great article about receivers and age. The drop off is 30 years old. They illustrate this point well. I don't normally post rotoworld articles, but the info here is quite compelling. A bit long, but good info and data for discussing team issues, and Fantasy Football owners alike:

    [QUOTE]This article is a guest post by Frank DuPont.

    [B]Are This Year's Top Wide Receivers Risky Because They're Old?[/B]

    A quick check of wide receiver ADP reveals that several of the top*wide receivers*this year are getting up there in age. Consider that Andre Johnson, Roddy White, and Wes Welker will all be 31 at some point during the upcoming season and they're all being drafted in the top 10 among wide receivers.*The age of 31*may not seem that old, but in the past five years only 11 times have WRs been 31 or older while also being drafted among the top 10 players at that position. Of those 11 times, Randy Moss and Terrell Owens account for about 5 of those instances.

    The relationship that age has to your fantasy draft isnít especially clear cut. We know that wide receivers probably peak in their abilities when they're in their mid-20s. But from that point until the receiver hits 33 or 34, the dropoff isn't dramatic. A wide receiver might lose 20% of his per game production in that time. Consider that a wide receiver that experienced a peak season of 15 standard fantasy points per game could reasonably still be expected to score perhaps 12 fantasy points per game in their 30s. Also, being over 30 didnít prevent Moss or Owens from having career years in 2007 and 2005 respectively.

    Things become a little messier when you consider that the 20% that I mention above is just an average. Each*player is probably going to age a little bit differently and their decline might not be a straight line.

    For instance, Marvin Harrison was 35 when he was the third*wide receiver*off the board in 2007. He was coming off a 1300 yard, 12 touchdown season. Harrison only appeared in 5 games in 2007 and over the entire rest of his career he only had 700 yards and 6 touchdowns.

    Despite being the second wide receiver to come off draft boards in 2010, Moss seemed to hit something of a wall at 33 years old.* He played on three NFL teams that year and probably hit your waiver wire at some point in the season.

    Chad Ochocinco was chosen as the ninth*wide receiver*in fantasy drafts in 2008 when he was 30 years old. Ochocinco compiled just over 500 yards that year, breaking*his run of 6 consecutive seasons*where he had at*least 1100 yards. He would have something of a bounce back season in 2010, although his production that year occurred mostly in just a few big games.

    The point in mentioning these seasons where perceived top 10*players at their position*fell off is to illustrate that sometimes the previous season doesnít give us any clue that the drop is coming. Itís also true that age can catch up to even the best players. Perhaps the best way to assess the risk of whether this yearís crop of older*receivers might have some downside risk is by looking at players that they might be similar to and see if those similar players stayed productive into their 30s.

    Andre Johnson

    Andre Johnson is similar on a number of levels to three wide receivers from the recent past. Keyshawn Johnson, Jimmy Smith (JAX), and Michael Irvin are all similar to Johnson on various measures. They are all big receivers.**Irvin is the smallest of the group and he was regarded as a big receiver for*his era.* Also,*as we'll*see in*the following tables, they are also all comparable in terms of their production. First letís look at Andre Johnson from age 25 to present:

    Andre Johnson, Age 25 -- Present

    Age 25, 16 Games, 103 Receptions, 1147 Yards, 11.1 Y/R, 5 TD
    Age 26, 9 Games, 60 Receptions, 851 Yards, 14.2 Y/R, 8 TD
    Age 27, 16 Games, 115 Receptions, 1575 Yards, 13.7 Y/R, 8 TD
    Age 28, 16 Games, 101 Receptions, 1569 Yards, 15.5 Y/R, 9 TD
    Age 29, 13 Games, 86 Receptions, 1216 Yards, 14.1 Y/R, 8 TD
    Age 30, 7 Games, 33 Receptions, 492 Yards, 14.9 Y/R, 2 TD

    Then, here are the stats for Michael Irvin, Keyshawn Johnson, and Jimmy Smith.

    Michael Irvin, Age 25 -- End of Career

    Age 25, 16 Games, 93 Receptions, 1523 Yards, 16.4 Y/R, 8 TD
    Age 26, 16 Games, 78 Receptions, 1396 Yards, 17.9 Y/R, 7 TD
    Age 27, 16 Games, 88 Receptions, 1330 Yards, 15.1 Y/R, 7 TD
    Age 28, 16 Games, 79 Receptions, 1241 Yards, 15.7 Y/R, 6 TD
    Age 29, 16 Games, 111 Receptions, 1603 Yards, 14.4 Y/R, 10 TD
    Age 30, 11 Games, 64 Receptions, 962 Yards, 15 Y/R, 2 TD
    Age 31, 16 Games, 75 Receptions, 1180 Yards, 15.7 Y/R, 9 TD
    Age 32, 16 Games, 74 Receptions, 1057 Yards, 14.3 Y/R, 1 TD
    Age 33, 4 Games, 10 Receptions, 167 Yards, 16.7 Y/R, 3 TD

    Keyshawn Johnson, Age 25 -- End of Career

    Age 25, 16 Games, 70 Receptions, 963 Yards, 13.8 Y/R, 5 TD
    Age 26, 16 Games, 83 Receptions, 1131 Yards, 13.6 Y/R, 10 TD
    Age 27, 16 Games, 89 Receptions, 1170 Yards, 13.1 Y/R, 8 TD
    Age 28, 16 Games, 71 Receptions, 874 Yards, 12.3 Y/R, 8 TD
    Age 29, 15 Games, 106 Receptions, 1266 Yards, 11.9 Y/R, 1 TD
    Age 30, 16 Games, 76 Receptions, 1088 Yards, 14.3 Y/R, 5 TD
    Age 31, 10 Games, 45 Receptions, 600 Yards, 13.3 Y/R, 3 TD
    Age 32, 16 Games, 70 Receptions, 981 Yards, 14 Y/R, 6 TD
    Age 33, 16 Games, 71 Receptions, 839 Yards, 11.8 Y/R, 6 TD
    Age 34, 16 Games, 70 Receptions, 815 Yards, 11.6 Y/R, 4 TD

    Jimmy Smith, Age 25 -- End of Career

    Age 26, 16 Games, 22 Receptions, 288 Yards, 13.1 Y/R, 3 TD
    Age 27, 16 Games, 83 Receptions, 1244 Yards, 15 Y/R, 7 TD
    Age 28, 16 Games, 82 Receptions, 1324 Yards, 16.1 Y/R, 4 TD
    Age 29, 16 Games, 78 Receptions, 1182 Yards, 15.2 Y/R, 8 TD
    Age 30, 16 Games, 116 Receptions, 1636 Yards, 14.1 Y/R, 6 TD
    Age 31, 15 Games, 91 Receptions, 1213 Yards, 13.3 Y/R, 8 TD
    Age 32, 16 Games, 112 Receptions, 1373 Yards, 12.3 Y/R, 8 TD
    Age 33, 16 Games, 80 Receptions, 1027 Yards, 12.8 Y/R, 7 TD
    Age 34, 12 Games, 54 Receptions, 805 Yards, 14.9 Y/R, 4 TD
    Age 35, 16 Games, 74 Receptions, 1172 Yards, 15.8 Y/R, 6 TD
    Age 36, 16 Games, 70 Receptions, 1023 Yards, 14.6 Y/R, 6 TD

    Does a review of the careers of these comparable players offer any insight into what we might expect from Andre Johnson?

    First, Jimmy Smith remained productive until he left the NFL.* While you can see that Smith had his last season of better than 1200 yards at age 32, he still had three more 1,000 yard seasons before he retired.* But it's worth noting that Smith's 2001 (age 32)*season was the last one that he could be reasonably described as being the equivalent of a fantasy WR1.

    Keyshawn Johnson is similar to Andre Johnson, but of the comparison group, Keyshawn's career is easily the worst.* However, before we dismiss the comparison between Keyshawn and Andre Johnson, it's useful to remember that Keyshawn really was regarded as a top talent.* He was the number one overall pick in his draft class.* When he was traded from the Jets to the Buccaneers he garnered two first round picks in the trade.* He no doubt suffered at least in part from being on Tampa Bay teams that weren't very good at throwing the ball.**During the 2000 season Keyshawn caught just under 900 yards receiving, although his yardage was about 31% of the Tampa Bay total that year.* However, for our purposes we are primarily interested in the point where Keyshawn dropped off in the level of production that he had established earlier in his career.

    Keyshawn actually never experienced a dramatic fall off.* He did have one season that was shortened due to his feud with Tampa Bay head coach Jon Gruden.* But otherwise Keyshawn's falloff was gradual.* He went from being an 1100 yard, 8 touchdown type receiver to gradually providing maybe 80 or 90% of that production.* Probably the only real line of demarcation that exists in Keyshawn's stat line is that after age 32 he went from averaging 13 yards per reception to about 11 yards per reception.

    Finally, Irvin is also a good comparison for Johnson.* Like Johnson, Irvin was the undisputed number one receiving option on his team for most of his career.* In terms of Irvin's decline as a player, the 1997 season is probably the last time that Irvin was in the top 10 in the NFL at the position.* He ranked in the top 10 in both yards and touchdowns that year.* During the 1998 season, when Irvin was 32 years old, he caught just one touchdown.

    Roddy White

    For the purposes of looking at Roddy White, we'll use two receivers from the recent past in our comparisons.* Both Torry Holt and Reggie Wayne are reasonably close to White in terms of production at comparable ages and also in terms of size.* White, Wayne and Holt are all medium sized receivers, closer to the 200 pound range.

    Let's look at these three receivers in the same way that we looked at the Andre Johnson-similar receivers.

    Roddy White, Age 25 -- Present

    Age 25, 16 Games, 30 Receptions, 506 Yards, 16.9 Y/R, 0 TD
    Age 26, 16 Games, 83 Receptions, 1202 Yards, 14.5 Y/R, 6 TD
    Age 27, 16 Games, 88 Receptions, 1382 Yards, 15.7 Y/R, 7 TD
    Age 28, 16 Games, 85 Receptions, 1153 Yards, 13.6 Y/R, 11 TD
    Age 29, 16 Games, 115 Receptions, 1389 Yards, 12.1 Y/R, 10 TD
    Age 30, 16 Games, 100 Receptions, 1296 Yards, 13 Y/R, 8 TD

    Torry Holt, Age 25 -- End of Career

    Age 25, 16 Games, 81 Receptions, 1363 Yards, 16.8 Y/R, 7 TD
    Age 26, 16 Games, 91 Receptions, 1302 Yards, 14.3 Y/R, 4 TD
    Age 27, 16 Games, 117 Receptions, 1696 Yards, 14.5 Y/R, 12 TD
    Age 28, 16 Games, 94 Receptions, 1372 Yards, 14.6 Y/R, 10 TD
    Age 29, 14 Games, 102 Receptions, 1331 Yards, 13 Y/R, 9 TD
    Age 30, 16 Games, 93 Receptions, 1188 Yards, 12.8 Y/R, 10 TD
    Age 31, 16 Games, 93 Receptions, 1189 Yards, 12.8 Y/R, 7 TD
    Age 32, 16 Games, 64 Receptions, 796 Yards, 12.4 Y/R, 3 TD
    Age 33, 15 Games, 51 Receptions, 722 Yards, 14.2 Y/R, 0 TD

    Reggie Wayne, Age 25 -- Present

    Age 25, 16 Games, 68 Receptions, 838 Yards, 12.3 Y/R, 7 TD
    Age 26, 16 Games, 77 Receptions, 1210 Yards, 15.7 Y/R, 12 TD
    Age 27, 16 Games, 83 Receptions, 1055 Yards, 12.7 Y/R, 5 TD
    Age 28, 16 Games, 86 Receptions, 1310 Yards, 15.2 Y/R, 9 TD
    Age 29, 16 Games, 104 Receptions, 1510 Yards, 14.5 Y/R, 10 TD
    Age 30, 16 Games, 82 Receptions, 1145 Yards, 14 Y/R, 6 TD
    Age 31, 16 Games, 100 Receptions, 1264 Yards, 12.6 Y/R, 10 TD
    Age 32, 16 Games, 111 Receptions, 1355 Yards, 12.2 Y/R, 6 TD
    Age 33, 16 Games, 75 Receptions, 960 Yards, 12.8 Y/R, 4 TD

    These comparisons offer some interesting insights.* Holt was an amazingly consistent receiver almost from the time he entered the league until the time he turned 30.* After age 30, it's not that Holt wasn't a productive receiver, it's just that by the standard he set prior to that point, he wasn't nearly as good.* The range that you could expect Holt to perform at went from 1300-1600 yards in his prime to being in the range of 800-1200 yards after he turned 30.

    Reggie Wayne's career has been a little different than Holt's.* Wayne took longer to become a number one receiver, likely due to Marvin Harrison's entrenched role with the Colts.* But then Wayne has also stayed productive at a later age than Holt did.* Wayne had a career high in receptions at age 32.* But his dropoff last year looked dramatic.* Some amount of Wayne's drop in production was no doubt due to the loss of Peyton Manning, but Wayne also didn't look like he had the ability to separate last year.

    For purposes of evaluating White, one thing that I think is worth paying attention to is each receiver's yards per catch.* When receivers pass 30 years old and then end up down in the 11-13 yards per catch range, I do think it is a sign that they are having increasing difficulty getting open downfield, and they also aren't able to do as much with the ball in terms of yards after the catch.* White is slipping into that 12-13 yards per catch range.

    Wes Welker

    Welker is the most difficult player to find historical comparisons for.* This is probably somewhat related to the same reason that Welker went undrafted after having a 3,000 receiving yard career at Texas Tech.* Much of what NFL teams do is engage in pattern matching and Welker doesn't fit any particular pattern of success for NFL wide receivers.* He is his own outlier.

    Welker's 2011 season was a career year and finding comparables for it are almost impossible.* Wide receivers who might be close statistically aren't close to Welker in size.* Wide receivers who are close in size aren't close statistically.* Marvin Harrison is somewhat close in size and statistics, but a quick glance at either receiver shows that they aren't very similar players.* Former Detroit Lions wide receiver Brett Perriman had one season that was close to Welker's 2011, but the rest of Perriman's career wasn't close to Welker.

    Welker may actually be a case where analysis of historical comparables leads us to say something that isn't really part of the conversation in fantasy football punditry.* I don't know.* We don't know any more after looking at a list of Welker comparable receivers because there really aren't any.* Perhaps a reasonable method for forecasting Welker's 2012 season would be to look at the years that he's played in New England and then project a slight drop (not a dramatic drop) from the average of the production he usually compiles each year.

    Summary

    While the comparable players we've looked at haven't given us any concrete conclusions on when our subject players might see an age related drop in production, they have hopefully informed our sense that an age related drop becomes more likely each year that a player is in the league after 30. We have a range to expect a drop and that range is probably from 30 to 33, with a drop becoming increasingly likely each year.* When you're drafting your fantasy team this year, perhaps a reasonable way to think about a potential age related decline for Andre Johnson, Roddy White and Wes Welker is this: "It probably won't happen this year, but it might."

    I think there is another consideration that should also be added to this conversation.* In many cases a top wide receiver is going to remain productive from a fantasy standpoint even as their value to their team might be declining.* Older players can't get open as easily.* They are hopefully accounting for loss of athleticism with better route running.* But in many cases they are playing against defensive backs who are 10 years younger.* Older players might require more targets to compile the same amount of production that they accounted for when they were younger.* From a fantasy standpoint that is fine for us if we own that player.* But from the standpoint of the team that they play on, it's less than ideal.

    What can happen then is that the team can start looking at their other options. Consider that when New England cut Randy Moss loose in 2010, they did it amid a chorus of taunts from other teams that Moss had lost a step.* While New England had largely stood up for Moss during that chorus of taunts, they were actually throwing the ball elsewhere. When Chad Ochocinco had what was, for him, a terrible season in 2008, Cincinnati had another option in T.J. Houshmandzadeh.* When Marvin Harrison experienced his sharp decline, the Colts had another option in Reggie Wayne.

    Perhaps a good question to ask regarding this year's older wide receivers is whether they might continue to get the ball even if they've lost a step.* Basically, do their teams have any other options?* On this count, Andre Johnson certainly seems to be in the best situation.* Of the wide receivers we've looked at, he is the one who seems to be his team's only option.* Roddy White is in the unfortunate situation of entering the later stages in his career while his team also has one of the NFL's freakish physical specimens in Julio Jones.* It's not difficult at all to imagine that if White is not an efficient option for the Falcons, they could*increasingly turn to Julio Jones.* Wes Welker is in a situation that is not as clear as Andre Johnson, and not as muddy as Roddy White.* While the Patriots now have a host of other options, their willingness to use the franchise tag on him speaks to their desire to utilize him this year.* Also, while New England has the league's best tight end duo along with the newly added Brandon Lloyd, none fill the same role that Welker does.* You could also probably convince me that Welker, who ran a 4.65 40 yard dash coming out of college, never required elite athleticism for his production and he might be the best suited to continue to be productive as his athleticism diminishes.

    The last point that I might make here is that being drafted in the top 10 at a position in fantasy football is often a vote of confidence in a player's safety as an option.* It's a sign we think they're low risk.* But as players pass the age of 30, they are increasingly a higher risk.* From 2007 to 2011, there were 34 wide receivers who were less than 30 years old and were also drafted in the top 10 at the position.* Of those receivers, only five of them*averaged less than nine standard fantasy points during the season they were drafted in the top 10 at wide receiver.* But of the 16 wide receivers who were 30 or older, six of them scored less than nine fantasy points per game.* You can think of nine fantasy points as being the "over/under" on whether you're going to be legitimately disappointed in your fantasy WR1.

    Scoring Less Than Nine Fantasy Points Per Game (Top 10 ADP Among WRs)

    30 or Older: 37.5%
    Under 30: 14.7%

    While we don't have any concrete evidence that any of the receivers we're looking at will fall off this year, it does look like the over 30 group of wide receivers lacks a basic property that we look for when drafting the top 10 at a fantasy position.* They lack safety.

    If I had to bet what kind of season each of these receivers are going to have, I would probably bet that they will have seasons close to their career averages, but slightly worse.* But then there is also the risk that they might run into a wall that some players run into when they pass 30 years old.* If that does happen, you'll be sick that you drafted them.[/QUOTE]

    [URL="http://rotoworld.com/articles/nfl/40610/277/older-wide-receivers"]Older Wide Receivers[/URL]

  2. #2
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    DWC, is that you? No, but in all seriousness, that was an excellent read. Thanks for posting that. Although I do disagree with listing Andre Johnson as an example of a player that's on the decline. Last year he missed more than half the season due to injury, that's why his numbers were low because he's always put up monster numbers when healthy. That injury he caused was a freak injury and I don't believe it had anything to do with his "age". We'll see how he's recovered from injury this up coming season, but if I were a betting man? I'd bet that he'll put up 80+ receptions, 1200+ yards to go along with another 12+ TD's. He's that good.

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    [QUOTE=NY2FLDWC85;4494736]DWC, is that you? No, but in all seriousness, that was an excellent read. Thanks for posting that. Although I do disagree with listing Andre Johnson as an example of a player that's on the decline. Last year he missed more than half the season due to injury, that's why his numbers were low because he's always put up monster numbers when healthy. That injury he caused was a freak injury and I don't believe it had anything to do with his "age". We'll see how he's recovered from injury this up coming season, but if I were a betting man? I'd bet that he'll put up 80+ receptions, 1200+ yards to go along with another 12+ TD's. He's that good.[/QUOTE]
    Referring to yourself in the third person now, are we?

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    [QUOTE=10PennyToColes87;4494740]Referring to yourself in the third person now, are we?[/QUOTE]

    I was just making fun of myself since I get messed with from time to time, due to some of the long winded post's. Sometimes my brain doesn't stop thinking of different aspects in regards to a specific situation/post and my fingers don't stop typing. In regards to your question, maybe I've watched a little too much of Floyd Mayweather Jr over the years, but other than that, that was a great article and very informative; did you read it?

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    fell asleep halfway thru...it is true tho, over 30 starts the decline...what happens over 40?

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    Good article, though as a fantasy article it's mostly just looking at production and ignoring context.

    I like how they get to Welker's projection and are like, um... :dunno:

    That's a very real-life conundrum facing the NE front office right now.

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    [QUOTE=ASG0531;4494792]Good article, though as a fantasy article it's mostly just looking at production and ignoring context.

    I like how they get to Welker's projection and are like, um... :dunno:

    That's a very real-life conundrum facing the NE front office right now.[/QUOTE]

    I find it relevant on many fronts. They signed Lloyd, which gives them some leverage (he's looked great in OTA's, but that's just what that is).

    As for AJ, his injury came at a bad time, where he's on the bubble of the parameters set by this "theory". He's already extended his contract. He's got one more big payday at best a few years down the road, IMO.

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    Yet, people want to sign older WRs. I rather just go into the season with what we got. It seems like the jets more than any other team is more obsessed with names than giving a younger guy a chance.

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    [QUOTE=k.Rhodes25;4494807]Yet, people want to sign older WRs. I rather just go into the season with what we got. It seems like the jets more than any other team is more obsessed with names than giving a younger guy a chance.[/QUOTE]

    This year will be the first time that we have players who are unproven, minus Holmes. We'll see what happens, but of Hill, Schilens, Turner, Kerley and the rest, one or two should be able to step up. I'm glad we went the youth route this year.

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    [QUOTE=John_0515;4494804]I find it relevant on many fronts. They signed Lloyd, which gives them some leverage (he's looked great in OTA's, but that's just what that is).

    As for AJ, his injury came at a bad time, where he's on the bubble of the parameters set by this "theory". He's already extended his contract. He's got one more big payday at best a few years down the road, IMO.[/QUOTE]

    I don't see any reason why AJ won't come back and maintain his baseline level of productivity with Schaub back healthy. His projection to 16 games in 2011 is fairly decent.

    And Lloyd is not at all the Pats' leverage regarding Welker, they play completely different roles in the offense. The Pats' leverage is Aaron Hernandez, the most likely to take over as a hybrid HB/TE/slot WR should Welker be gone after 2012.

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    [QUOTE=ASG0531;4494820]I don't see any reason why AJ won't come back and maintain his baseline level of productivity with Schaub back healthy. His projection to 16 games in 2011 is fairly decent.

    And Lloyd is not at all the Pats' leverage regarding Welker, they play completely different roles in the offense. The Pats' leverage is Aaron Hernandez, the most likely to take over as a hybrid HB/TE/slot WR should Welker be gone after 2012.[/QUOTE]

    I never said AJ wouldn't maintain his baseline productivity.

    I understand Lloyd's role is different than Welker's, but the Pats are preparing for the future, and that may not include Welker.

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    [QUOTE=John_0515;4494826]I never said AJ wouldn't maintain his baseline productivity.

    I understand Lloyd's role is different than Welker's, but the Pats are preparing for the future, and that may not include Welker.[/QUOTE]

    Well, you suggested Lloyd was leverage against Welker signing another multi-year deal. Lloyd is also 30, and his role as an outside WR is unchallenged for the next few years it seems.

    The problem is that Welker's 31 and while his production this year isn't in question (the reason he was franchised), his production in potential years 2-4 of his next deal is very in question. Hernandez is 22, still on his rookie deal, and has all of the tools to slide into the slot role and be a beast, with Gronk and Fells/Ballard playing the TE2 role in 2013. Locking up Hernandez over Welker long-term is potentially the best long-term move for them.

    Pure speculation, but something the FO is surely examining this season.
    Last edited by ASG0531; 06-18-2012 at 10:50 PM.

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    ... Of course this is pre rule changes ... Receivers will last MUCH longer in the new NFL.

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    [QUOTE=Dunnie;4494864]... Of course this is pre rule changes ... Receivers will last MUCH longer in the new NFL.[/QUOTE]

    Depends... when is Harrison retiring?

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    [QUOTE=ASG0531;4494860]Well, you suggested Lloyd was leverage against Welker signing another multi-year deal. Lloyd is also 30, and his role as an outside WR is unchallenged for the next few years it seems.

    The problem is that Welker's 31 and while his production this year isn't in question (the reason he was franchised), his production in potential years 2-4 of his next deal is very in question. Hernandez is 22, still on his rookie deal, and has all of the tools to slide into the slot role and be a beast, with Gronk and Fells/Ballard playing the TE2 role in 2013. Locking up Hernandez over Welker long-term is potentially the best long-term move for them.

    Pure speculation, but something the FO is surely examining this season.[/QUOTE]

    Lloyd is as well. The Pats have signed a bunch of old players to the WR until this year in moves that resemble the plan of enough **** against the wall, hoping some of it sticks.

    If Welker was smart, he'd hold out, he's never going to get a contact from the Pats, they dicked him, but it would be fiscally irresponsible to give Welker a big contract.

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    [QUOTE=Ray Ray19;4494897]Lloyd is as well. The Pats have signed a bunch of old players to the WR until this year in moves that resemble the plan of enough **** against the wall, hoping some of it sticks.

    If Welker was smart, he'd hold out, he's never going to get a contact from the Pats, they dicked him, but it would be fiscally irresponsible to give Welker a big contract.[/QUOTE]


    I agree, but he signed the franchise tender, so he's playing this year. Like I said, it's a tough call from the Pats' FO point of view, they have no idea what they're getting in the upcoming years, and Hernandez can probably slide into his role pretty easily. The reason this came up is the OP's article says it's pretty tough to predict what Welker's value will be in the upcoming years. He has no real comps in the league.

    Welker came up for the pay day at the wrong time. He had a chance at 2/18 GTD last year, turned it down. I don't blame him, but he's in a tough spot because of how tough it is to compare him to other WRs in the league and their value. At least he's getting 9.5 GTD, that's still a lot of money. A deal could still happen, or not, who knows.

    Lloyd has nothing to do with this, why do people bring him up?
    Last edited by ASG0531; 06-19-2012 at 12:13 AM.

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    [QUOTE=ASG0531;4494905]I agree, but he signed the franchise tender, so he's playing this year. Like I said, it's a tough call from the Pats' FO point of view, they have no idea what they're getting in the upcoming years, and Hernandez can probably slide into his role pretty easily. The reason this came up is the OP's article says it's pretty tough to predict what Welker's value will be in the upcoming years. He has no real comps in the league.

    Welker came up for the pay day at the wrong time. He had a chance at 2/18 GTD last year, turned it down. I don't blame him, but he's in a tough spot because of how tough it is to compare him to other WRs in the league and their value. At least he's getting 9.5 GTD, that's still a lot of money. A deal could still happen, or not, who knows.

    Lloyd has nothing to do with this, why do people bring him up?[/QUOTE]

    One possible reason to bring up Lloyd is that when you are basically the only real WR threat on the team, chances are, you are going to have a lot of balls thrown your way. Lloyd is a serious threat as a WR and he's bound to have an impact on the Pats passing schemes, as well as on Welker's production.

  18. #18
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    [QUOTE=John_0515;4494810]This year will be the first time that we have players who are unproven, minus Holmes. We'll see what happens, but of Hill, Schilens, Turner, Kerley and the rest, one or two should be able to step up. I'm glad we went the youth route this year.[/QUOTE]
    Jets look set at WR this year. We have a young cast of capable and diverse specimens who should be able to get the job done. Looking for big things from Holmes, Hill, Schillens, Kerley and Jordan White (got a good feeling about this guy)

  19. #19
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    [QUOTE=ASG0531;4494905]I agree, but he signed the franchise tender, so he's playing this year. Like I said, it's a tough call from the Pats' FO point of view, they have no idea what they're getting in the upcoming years, and [B]Hernandez can probably slide into his role pretty easily. [/B] The reason this came up is the OP's article says it's pretty tough to predict what Welker's value will be in the upcoming years. [B]He has no real comps in the league.[/B]
    [/QUOTE]

    Well, first and foremost... I've seen a lot of Aaron Hernandez over his years (during his Gator days). He's not an NFL slot WR. So, I'll have to agree to disagree in regards to a player such as Hernandez easily replacing one of the greatest slot WR's around in Welker. The Patriots only have Hernandez listed as being 6'1/245 pounds for some reason. He's closer to 6'2 1/2. Welker's only 5'9/185, which is what makes him so effective exploding out of the slot. He's very elusive. Hernandez just isn't a slot WR. He's not built for it. He's very quick when compared to lots of other TE's around the league, but I don't believe that he's quick nor shifty enough for the slot. He's the perfect hybrid TE though.

    If we're to try and find comparisons for Wes Welker, who better to use than Wayne Chrebet?

    Both were smaller guys who were/are built for the slot. Both feast(ed) across the middle of the football field. Both were/are almost impossible to stop during 3rd and 2/4 situations due to the fact that opposing D's have no idea whether a run or pass is coming. Welker already has Chrebet beat in regards to career receptions by exactly 70 catches. Welker (7,226) is on the verge of passing Chrebet (7,365) in receiving yards and only needs 9 more receiving TD's to tie Chrebet. Some may think that Welker was/is the better talent due to his stats, but that's just not the case. Wayne Chrebet just never had Tom Brady throwing him the football, or he could have set all types of records for slot WR's. They do make great comparisons to one another though, or at least in my eyes they do.

    Chrebet played 11 seasons, his career was cut short due to concussion's. His first 8 years were very strong though, putting up 507 receptions, 6,526 yards to go along with 39 TD's. Chrebet's last 3 years in the league were very tough for Jet fans to watch. Very sad. That's when his decline started. Back in 2003, he was exactly 30 years of age back in 03 coming off a season (2002) where he put up 51 receptions, 691 receiving yards and 9 TD's (a career high in TD's). In 03 Chrebet could only put up 27 receptions, 289 yards and 1 TD during only 7 games played. He was out of the league only two years later.

    As of right now, Welker is heading into his 9th season, which is the same year that Chrebet broke down. He's 31 years of age. Coming off a season, where like Chrebet, put up a career high with 9 TD receptions. Of course Welker had a much better 8th season last year, when compared to Wayne, putting up 122 receptions/1,569 yards.

    I wouldn't bet that Welker breaks down this season, but I see no way possible that he last's another 3 years. His day is coming, where he can no longer impact the game as in recent years. Wayne Chrebet was out of the league after 11 years, Welker is on the verge of entering his 9th year, I just can't see him lasting too much longer.

  20. #20
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    [QUOTE=NY2FLDWC85;4494926]Well, first and foremost... I've seen a lot of Aaron Hernandez over his years (during his Gator days). He's not an NFL slot WR. So, I'll have to agree to disagree in regards to a player such as Hernandez easily replacing one of the greatest slot WR's around in Welker. The Patriots only have Hernandez listed as being 6'1/245 pounds for some reason. He's closer to 6'2 1/2. Welker's only 5'9/185, which is what makes him so effective exploding out of the slot. He's very elusive. Hernandez just isn't a slot WR. He's not built for it. He's very quick when compared to lots of other TE's around the league, but I don't believe that he's quick nor shifty enough for the slot. He's the perfect hybrid TE though.

    If we're to try and find comparisons for Wes Welker, who better to use than Wayne Chrebet?

    Both were smaller guys who were/are built for the slot. Both feast(ed) across the middle of the football field. Both were/are almost impossible to stop during 3rd and 2/4 situations due to the fact that opposing D's have no idea whether a run or pass is coming. Welker already has Chrebet beat in regards to career receptions by exactly 70 catches. Welker (7,226) is on the verge of passing Chrebet (7,365) in receiving yards and only needs 9 more receiving TD's to tie Chrebet. Some may think that Welker was/is the better talent due to his stats, but that's just not the case. Wayne Chrebet just never had Tom Brady throwing him the football, or he could have set all types of records for slot WR's. They do make great comparisons to one another though, or at least in my eyes they do.

    Chrebet played 11 seasons, his career was cut short due to concussion's. His first 8 years were very strong though, putting up 507 receptions, 6,526 yards to go along with 39 TD's. Chrebet's last 3 years in the league were very tough for Jet fans to watch. Very sad. That's when his decline started. Back in 2003, he was exactly 30 years of age back in 03 coming off a season (2002) where he put up 51 receptions, 691 receiving yards and 9 TD's (a career high in TD's). In 03 Chrebet could only put up 27 receptions, 289 yards and 1 TD during only 7 games played. He was out of the league only two years later.

    As of right now, Welker is heading into his 9th season, which is the same year that Chrebet broke down. He's 31 years of age. Coming off a season, where like Chrebet, put up a career high with 9 TD receptions. Of course Welker had a much better 8th season last year, when compared to Wayne, putting up 122 receptions/1,569 yards.

    I wouldn't bet that Welker breaks down this season, but I see no way possible that he last's another 3 years. His day is coming, where he can no longer impact the game as in recent years. Wayne Chrebet was out of the league after 11 years, Welker is on the verge of entering his 9th year, I just can't see him lasting too much longer.[/QUOTE]


    Thanks for the history lesson. I don't believe he can replace Welker's role exactly (who can?) but I can envision him moving to a hybrid HB/TE/WR slot type role with Fells and a healthy Ballard to fill the TE2 position in 2013, and with Welker's impending decline, locking Hernandez up to fill that role is a solid move. We'll have to disagree as to whether or not he can fill that role adequately. You don't have to be short and shifty to play the middle of the field as a receiver.
    Last edited by ASG0531; 06-19-2012 at 01:34 AM.

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