The issue of schedule is probably more relevant to the WC race than the division.
Until we see otherwise, you have to reckon that the AFC North is the strongest overall of the four AFC divisions and at least one WC team will come from there. However, the AFC North teams match up against the NFC East, while the AFC East get the NFC West this time round. I'd say that's an advantage this year in favour of the AFC East. I don't see both WC teams coming from the AFC North this year.
If we assume one AFC North team gets one spot, who gets the remaining one? As above, AFC East plays NFC West, and although that division is not as weak as in recent years, it's definitely preferable to having the NFC North (Packers, Bears, rising Lions) and possibly the NFC South (Atlanta, rising Panthers - Saints a big ? this year). And I don't see true powerhouse teams in the AFC South or West as things stand (second best in AFC South would probably be the Titans, and in the West it's a toss up between Denver and SD).
So can the Jets do better over the season than the likes of the Titans / Denver / San Diego? I'd say so. Beyond that - if we really want to win the division - we have to AT LEAST sweep Buffalo and Miami and split with NE. Even that would leave us needing to better NE on the non-divisional games, which is always going to be a big ask. Can we sweep NE - even if we drop one to say Buffalo? (Works better on the head to head vs. NE). At the moment, I don't see enough of a change by us to suggest so - I think if we split we'll have done very, very well.