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Thread: LOL, Our 3rd/4th & short Offense was even more predictable & atrocious than I thought

  1. #1

    LOL, Our 3rd/4th & short Offense was even more predictable & atrocious than I thought

    I'm working on an article for a blog right now, but holy crap, our situational play-calling last year was absolutely horrendous.

    Here are some hilarious stats I investigated from last year:

    Taking away two meaningless end of 1st half plays in our own territory where we were running out the clock, the 2011 Jets had 59 total plays on 3rd or 4th and 3 or less

    - The Jets had a designed pass play on 41 of those 59 plays (69% of the time we wanted to pass versus 31% of the time we ran the ball). The league average is ~55% pass, ~45% run. So much for ground and pound. If only this were the worst part of it all.

    - When the Jets wanted to pass the ball, they had a 46.3% success rate, meaning they got a 1st down. When the Jets designed a run call, they had a 77.8% success rate. Why the eff are you passing it twice as much as you are running it then?

    - This might be the best part because we all noticed how often they tried to gain only 2 yards on 3rd & 2 and only 3 yards on 3rd & 3... If you take away sacks and scrambles, the Jets had 34 throws on 3rd/4th & short. They threw short on a whopping 27 plays, for an "amazing" first down on 11 of those plays, or a cool 40.7% success rate. 2 of the 11 were thanks to defensive holding or DPI penalties. However, on the rare instance they challenged deep, they were successful on 6 of 7 tries, good for a 85.7% success rate. They drew two defensive holding/DPI penalties on those plays. Sanchez was 4/5 for 85 yds, 2 TDs, and 0 INT. Only 2 of the 7 deep shots were called after Week 7.


    I was a bit indifferent about Schotty until the Giants game in Week 16. That was the straw that broke the camel's back for me though. But after looking at this evidence on 3rd/4th and short, I see no way anyone could possibly defend this guy. The play-calling in this scenario is absolutely mind-boggling.

  2. #2
    thanks for posting. I feel bad for Rams fans. Schitty for OC and their DC on an NFL Perma Ban. They have been hosed.

  3. #3
    Sucks to be them bro. Schotty was like a flea in a dog's ear that's near impossible to remove. Good riddance

  4. #4
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    Great stats. Thanks for posting. Of course, if we predominantly pass in those situations this year, defenses will gear up for that and it will be less successful, most likely. Still, I think we have underperformed relative to our personnel on offense during the last couple of years.

    Shotty was great in 2006, when our personnel wasn't as good and he outsmarted defenses. Remember the opener at Tennessee? I loved the guy after that game.

    We haven't been as lacking in talent during the last couple of years. It seems like we've tried to "outscheme" defenses in those seasons, instead of lining up and basically saying, "Here's who we have, and you guys can't stop us."

    Shotty had the right idea in 2008, when we would have challenged for a title had Favre not gotten injured. He also called tremendous games, to be fair, during the 2009 and 2010 playoffs. The wins over the Bengals and Chargers in 2009, and the win over the Patriots in 2010 were feathers in Shotty's cap.

    I think it wasn't going to work out long term anymore, but it would be wrong to dismiss Shotty as a complete liability during his time here. I quietly worry that Matt Cavanaugh has been the bigger problem, to be honest.

  5. #5
    Schotty had no "feel." He didn't know how long to stick with something that was working and when to get away from something that wasn't. He was also terrible at knowing when to take a shot. It was almost always on 1st & 10 or 2nd/3rd & long. When the offense was struggling, he became obsessed with 1st downs and started seeing the field 10 yards at a time. That only served to compound the problems of the offense.

  6. #6
    Our luck, the Rams will have the all time best passing offense in the NFL in 2012.

  7. #7
    How did you break it down? When they ran on 3rd & 3, did they run it out of 2 TE set or was it a draw play out of a passing formation? If the jets are throwing the ball that much on 3rd, the other teams know it and have their passing sub package on the field, which makes it when you do run the ball a lot more successful. If you reverse the percentages the opposing team will have their "bigs" out there and you will find passing to be the easier way to go.

    While the jets passed a lot on 3rd, I would think a good % of them went to the running back who was in the backfield when he caught the ball, to me this is more along the lines of a long hand off like a toss.

    Stats in football on are only good for a clue to investigate further.
    Last edited by patman; 07-16-2012 at 06:42 AM.

  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by J-E-F-F View Post
    Shotty had the right idea in 2008, when we would have challenged for a title had Favre not gotten injured. He also called tremendous games, to be fair, during the 2009 and 2010 playoffs. The wins over the Bengals and Chargers in 2009, and the win over the Patriots in 2010 were feathers in Shotty's cap.
    In 2008, a HOF-bound QB told Schoddy where to shove his complicated BS.

    Amazingly, that was Schoddy's best year.

  9. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by freestater View Post
    In 2008, a HOF-bound QB told Schoddy where to shove his complicated BS.

    Amazingly, that was Schoddy's best year.
    Why it is amazing that when you have a "great" qb you have a good better offense. It was still Schots play calling and game planning. I don't think that he is a great coach, but being able to change the system to meet the needs a new qb is not a bad thing.

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by patman View Post
    How did you break it down? When they ran on 3rd & 3, did they run it out of 2 TE set or was it a draw play out of a passing formation? If the jets are throwing the ball that much on 3rd, the other teams know it and have their passing sub package on the field, which makes it when you do run the ball a lot more successful. If you reverse the percentages the opposing team will have their "bigs" out there and you will find passing to be the easier way to go.

    While the jets passed a lot on 3rd, I would think a good % of them went to the running back who was in the backfield when he caught the ball, to me this is more along the lines of a long hand off like a toss.

    Stats in football on are only good for a clue to investigate further.
    I think the most important thing is that the receivers had no freedom to switch the route up depending on how it was being covered. That way if you're tipping of the plays then the defense can go all out knowing you're not going to run a hot route. That's why Shotty's offense got worse each year as he was figured out. I also find it amazing that each route was called individually in the huddle.

  11. #11
    Quote Originally Posted by J-E-F-F View Post
    Great stats. Thanks for posting. Of course, if we predominantly pass in those situations this year, defenses will gear up for that and it will be less successful, most likely. Still, I think we have underperformed relative to our personnel on offense during the last couple of years.

    Shotty was great in 2006, when our personnel wasn't as good and he outsmarted defenses. Remember the opener at Tennessee? I loved the guy after that game.

    We haven't been as lacking in talent during the last couple of years. It seems like we've tried to "outscheme" defenses in those seasons, instead of lining up and basically saying, "Here's who we have, and you guys can't stop us."

    Shotty had the right idea in 2008, when we would have challenged for a title had Favre not gotten injured. He also called tremendous games, to be fair, during the 2009 and 2010 playoffs. The wins over the Bengals and Chargers in 2009, and the win over the Patriots in 2010 were feathers in Shotty's cap.

    I think it wasn't going to work out long term anymore, but it would be wrong to dismiss Shotty as a complete liability during his time here. I quietly worry that Matt Cavanaugh has been the bigger problem, to be honest.
    Jets ran a completely different offense in the playoffs than they did in the regular season. Sanchez was allowed to check out of plays and was given a looser leash.

    Just saying, feather in Schotty's cap, but the players executed as well.

  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by patman View Post
    Why it is amazing that when you have a "great" qb you have a good better offense. It was still Schots play calling and game planning. I don't think that he is a great coach, but being able to change the system to meet the needs a new qb is not a bad thing.
    Yeah well if Schotty would let it be more about the players, and less about him it probably would have worked out a lot better.

  13. #13
    Schotty didn't use Mark Sanchez right in those short yardage situations. Mark Sanchez is a bootleg/ roll out QB. Get him on the move and let him run/throw for the first down.

  14. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by endgameeugenics View Post
    Schotty didn't use Mark Sanchez right in those short yardage situations. Mark Sanchez is a bootleg/ roll out QB. Get him on the move and let him run/throw for the first down.
    that's high school stuff.

  15. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by NY's stepchild View Post
    I think the most important thing is that the receivers had no freedom to switch the route up depending on how it was being covered. That way if you're tipping of the plays then the defense can go all out knowing you're not going to run a hot route. That's why Shotty's offense got worse each year as he was figured out. I also find it amazing that each route was called individually in the huddle.
    Yeah he ran a timing offense, where the qb would throw to a spot, I don't know about not having a hot read though, I read something that WRs were not able to adjust the route based on the defense, but I never heard of any coach saying that if your read has a guy blitzing that one guys route is not broken off. That is taught at high school, now that route in itself will also be thrown to a spot. It does require the WR and QB both reading the same blitz.

    The complicated part is that the spot changes based on the defense being played, if they switch defenses or it was hidden right the qb and the wr may read the D differently.
    Last edited by patman; 07-16-2012 at 09:39 AM.

  16. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by Matt39 View Post
    that's high school stuff.
    Joe Montana, Steve Young, Big Ben and Elway beg to differ.

    You have to be able to pass out of the pocket, but some great qbs were more effective outside.

  17. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by patman View Post
    How did you break it down? When they ran on 3rd & 3, did they run it out of 2 TE set or was it a draw play out of a passing formation? If the jets are throwing the ball that much on 3rd, the other teams know it and have their passing sub package on the field, which makes it when you do run the ball a lot more successful. If you reverse the percentages the opposing team will have their "bigs" out there and you will find passing to be the easier way to go.

    While the jets passed a lot on 3rd, I would think a good % of them went to the running back who was in the backfield when he caught the ball, to me this is more along the lines of a long hand off like a toss.

    Stats in football on are only good for a clue to investigate further.
    I'm not looking at any stats, but I have a feeling that when they ran those pass plays, a good % of them were out of an empty backfield. To me, that's the biggest problem of all. While I would like to see them balance that number out some more, I would at least like to be unpredictable to the defense. Considering Sanchez does not run the ball (by design), an empty backfield pretty much guarantees a pass play. And considering the Jets practically always run a 4 yard hitch of sorts, the defense pretty much knows exactly what's coming.

    To me, that was the biggest problem with our short yardage offense. If you want to throw the ball with 21 personnel, go for it. But in addition to having a RB running a 3 yard flare and slants, have a WR run a 10 yard out. He's probably going to be single covered. And throw that pass. Open all your options instead of always throwing the ball just to the sticks. The defense knows that and their LBs and safeties are salivating, waiting to unload.

  18. #18
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    World hunger is also Schotty's fault.

  19. #19
    Quote Originally Posted by Matt39 View Post
    that's high school stuff.
    STFU retard
    That's NFL stuff. Short yardage situation. Mark Sanchez ain't Mike Vick but, he's athletic enough to get a first down.

  20. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by crasherino View Post
    I'm not looking at any stats, but I have a feeling that when they ran those pass plays, a good % of them were out of an empty backfield. To me, that's the biggest problem of all. While I would like to see them balance that number out some more, I would at least like to be unpredictable to the defense. Considering Sanchez does not run the ball (by design), an empty backfield pretty much guarantees a pass play. And considering the Jets practically always run a 4 yard hitch of sorts, the defense pretty much knows exactly what's coming.

    To me, that was the biggest problem with our short yardage offense. If you want to throw the ball with 21 personnel, go for it. But in addition to having a RB running a 3 yard flare and slants, have a WR run a 10 yard out. He's probably going to be single covered. And throw that pass. Open all your options instead of always throwing the ball just to the sticks. The defense knows that and their LBs and safeties are salivating, waiting to unload.

    I never screamed louder than when we went 5 wide inside the other team's 10. a crucial spot, why tell them we're throwing? even worse from inside the 5. Losing Schitty is our best off-season move.

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