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Thread: LOL, Our 3rd/4th & short Offense was even more predictable & atrocious than I thought

  1. #21
    even when you don't get sanchez outta the pocket by design, in short yardage situations, you should still have the threat of a run look(2RBs, or 2TEs 1RB)

  2. #22
    Quote Originally Posted by brady's a catcher View Post
    I never screamed louder than when we went 5 wide inside the other team's 10. a crucial spot, why tell them we're throwing? even worse from inside the 5. Losing Schitty is our best off-season move.
    How much improvement are you expecting thisyear running a new offense for the first time? I understand that you want to change it up and thought the
    offensie got stale, but your not bringing in Don Coreyl or Bill Walsh. This is not replacing Kotite with Parcells.

  3. #23
    expecting a drastic improvement. This is now playing to our players strengths, rather than forcing a flawed system that's complicated and confusing.

  4. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by patman View Post
    How much improvement are you expecting thisyear running a new offense for the first time? I understand that you want to change it up and thought the
    offensie got stale, but your not bringing in Don Coreyl or Bill Walsh. This is not replacing Kotite with Parcells.
    Keep your clothes on and shut it down.

    Predictability is out the window now.

  5. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by patman View Post
    How much improvement are you expecting thisyear running a new offense for the first time? I understand that you want to change it up and thought the
    offensie got stale, but your not bringing in Don Coreyl or Bill Walsh. This is not replacing Kotite with Parcells.
    The improvement will come if/when Sanchez plays better. So, if Sparano can work with Sanchez to minimize his mistakes, the offense will be a LOT better. If Sanchez has shown who he truly is and there is nothing more that we can get from him, this offense will be inconsistent at best.

  6. #26
    Quote Originally Posted by patman View Post
    How much improvement are you expecting thisyear running a new offense for the first time? I understand that you want to change it up and thought the
    offensie got stale, but your not bringing in Don Coreyl or Bill Walsh. This is not replacing Kotite with Parcells.
    No one had a problem with the playbook that Schotty put together it was his in-game implementation of the playbook. Most teams these days have similar playbooks, give or take. And from what I have read the Sparano playbook is very similar to the Sparano playbook, the difference is that you will never see Sparano bringing in 5 WRs to run the same 3 yard route on 4th and 3.

    Its not like Jets fans are expecting our offense to be ranked in the top 5, but this team could win 12 games if the offense is more productive on 3rd/4th and short and execute a few more playactions for 40+ yard TD passes.

  7. #27
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    I don't know why no one talks about the fact that he was calling out 7 different routes in the huddle. Idk about anyone else, but that's a lot to think about, and read the defense at the same time. Then you have to make sure everyone knows their route, and think about how those routes will end up in relation to each other. So yeah I'd have to give Shotty the blame if they seemed a little confused.

  8. #28
    Quote Originally Posted by John_0515 View Post
    Our luck, the Rams will have the all time best passing offense in the NFL in 2012.
    Looking forward to the 45-10 shalacking they'll hand us.

    Jets fans:

    Schotteneheimer: Worst OC of all-time
    Sanchez: Greatest QB ever will throw for 67 TD's this year.

    Is it September yet?

  9. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by endgameeugenics View Post
    STFU retard

  10. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by 124 View Post
    Looking forward to the 45-10 shalacking they'll hand us.

    Jets fans:

    Schotteneheimer: Worst OC of all-time
    Sanchez: Greatest QB ever will throw for 67 TD's this year.

    Is it September yet?

    ... this has been a pretty informative and reasonable thread so far ...

    ... you are the person taking it to left field ...



    l_j_r

  11. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rexipus Rex View Post
    I'm working on an article for a blog right now, but holy crap, our situational play-calling last year was absolutely horrendous.

    Here are some hilarious stats I investigated from last year:

    Taking away two meaningless end of 1st half plays in our own territory where we were running out the clock, the 2011 Jets had 59 total plays on 3rd or 4th and 3 or less

    - The Jets had a designed pass play on 41 of those 59 plays (69% of the time we wanted to pass versus 31% of the time we ran the ball). The league average is ~55% pass, ~45% run. So much for ground and pound. If only this were the worst part of it all.

    - When the Jets wanted to pass the ball, they had a 46.3% success rate, meaning they got a 1st down. When the Jets designed a run call, they had a 77.8% success rate. Why the eff are you passing it twice as much as you are running it then?

    - This might be the best part because we all noticed how often they tried to gain only 2 yards on 3rd & 2 and only 3 yards on 3rd & 3... If you take away sacks and scrambles, the Jets had 34 throws on 3rd/4th & short. They threw short on a whopping 27 plays, for an "amazing" first down on 11 of those plays, or a cool 40.7% success rate. 2 of the 11 were thanks to defensive holding or DPI penalties. However, on the rare instance they challenged deep, they were successful on 6 of 7 tries, good for a 85.7% success rate. They drew two defensive holding/DPI penalties on those plays. Sanchez was 4/5 for 85 yds, 2 TDs, and 0 INT. Only 2 of the 7 deep shots were called after Week 7.


    I was a bit indifferent about Schotty until the Giants game in Week 16. That was the straw that broke the camel's back for me though. But after looking at this evidence on 3rd/4th and short, I see no way anyone could possibly defend this guy. The play-calling in this scenario is absolutely mind-boggling.
    Very interesting breakdown, thanks for sharing it.

    Quote Originally Posted by patman View Post
    How did you break it down? When they ran on 3rd & 3, did they run it out of 2 TE set or was it a draw play out of a passing formation? If the jets are throwing the ball that much on 3rd, the other teams know it and have their passing sub package on the field, which makes it when you do run the ball a lot more successful. If you reverse the percentages the opposing team will have their "bigs" out there and you will find passing to be the easier way to go.

    While the jets passed a lot on 3rd, I would think a good % of them went to the running back who was in the backfield when he caught the ball, to me this is more along the lines of a long hand off like a toss.

    Stats in football on are only good for a clue to investigate further.
    I'll fathom a guess that it was max protect given what we know of Schotty and especially the way the OL was last season. And that is a problem in and of itself as all too often Schotty employed non-receiving TEs, like Rob Turner split wide 2 years ago or Ducasse inline last year. Throwing out of these formations are ok if you have receivers who are consistently able to get open on their own, but if you don't, it's a problem. Kind of like a great 3 point shooter who can't create his own shot. Sure, you want the ball in his hands, but only if you can get him freed up to shoot the lights out. You're not pulling that off with Holmes and two stiffs in the game who aren't a threat to spread the field like Ducasse and/or Mulligan.

  12. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by patman View Post
    How much improvement are you expecting thisyear running a new offense for the first time? I understand that you want to change it up and thought the
    offensie got stale, but your not bringing in Don Coreyl or Bill Walsh. This is not replacing Kotite with Parcells.
    Even moderate improvement in this category, say 3 or 4 conversions per game, could pay major dividends.

    It keeps drives alive which means more points, TOP, rest for the D... serious factors in determining the outcome of games.

  13. #33
    Quote Originally Posted by patman View Post
    How did you break it down? When they ran on 3rd & 3, did they run it out of 2 TE set or was it a draw play out of a passing formation? If the jets are throwing the ball that much on 3rd, the other teams know it and have their passing sub package on the field, which makes it when you do run the ball a lot more successful. If you reverse the percentages the opposing team will have their "bigs" out there and you will find passing to be the easier way to go.

    While the jets passed a lot on 3rd, I would think a good % of them went to the running back who was in the backfield when he caught the ball, to me this is more along the lines of a long hand off like a toss.

    Stats in football on are only good for a clue to investigate further.
    crash, revischrist, and a few others did a good job explaining and I agree with a lot, but I figured I'd put my two cents in as well...

    I don't have NFL Game Rewind, so I wasn't able to visually assess each play. What I can tell you, however, is that a significant amount of the passes, specifically the short passes, were utilized when there was a single back who would then motion out wide. If having an empty backfield is not tipping your hand that you're only going to pass, I don't know what is.

    Only the elite passing offenses (like your Pats or the Saints for instance) can pass when everyone knows they're passing. A run-first team with a below-average passing game should not have the audacity to do that. To take it a step further, a contested, short pass in a tight window with a QB with below average accuracy is pretty moronic. The "reward" of a 3 yard gain is so much smaller than the risk. You might as well just run the damn ball if all you want is 3 yards.

    If the Jets are going to utilize a play the defense would "expect," it should be a running play. There were three instances on 3rd & short where they brought in Ducasse as an extra lineman. That's an indication that you're probably going to run. They ran all three times and converted all three times.

    I think my "stats" go a little deeper than the average stat you find out there. The facts are clear. The Jets threw at or near the LOS on 3rd and short at an alarming rate, often times with out any semblance of a threat to run. When they challenged deep, they had amazing success. That tells me that defenses were keying in on anything in a 5 yard box. And on the rare instance they ran, they had great success.

    As far as who the Jets threw to on 3rd and short... They threw the ball 34 times, 27 of them were short passes. Of the 27 short passes, only 2 of them went to a back. Both of them were to John Conner. 1 was incomplete and the other was complete but went for no gain. All the other passes went to WRs or TEs. I don't think your "RBs would just leak out to the flats" theory is correct.






    Quote Originally Posted by patman View Post
    How much improvement are you expecting thisyear running a new offense for the first time? I understand that you want to change it up and thought the
    offensie got stale, but your not bringing in Don Coreyl or Bill Walsh. This is not replacing Kotite with Parcells.
    Like TheMikeIsHot stated, I think just a cut down of turnovers would be a big first step.

    I don't think the volume stats will be much different, but I think they'll at least be a little smarter in these 3rd/4th and short scenarios I outlined. Even if they still passed 55% of the time, it would at least make the defense think some instead of merely sitting on short passing routes.

    When Sparano was in Miami, he often used Lousaka Polite in short yardage situations. Polite was a 6' 245 lbs. bruiser that would incredibly and reliably convert on those situations. Teams knew it was coming, but they couldn't stop it. If they're going to be obvious in what they're going to call in these situations, they might as well call a run because the Jets are better at that than passing. For what it's worth, Polite was 41/43 in converting for first downs in 3rd/4th and short. And I know a certain 6'3'' 249 lbs. Bible thumper that would fit in perfectly in these scenarios...
    Last edited by Rexipus Rex; 07-16-2012 at 06:37 PM.

  14. #34
    i guess there's not much point in piling on because schitty is gone but what took all of the apologists so long realize waht a nothing coach schitty really was. he did nothing, inspired no one and should have been launched 3 seasons ago.

    Quote Originally Posted by Rexipus Rex View Post
    I'm working on an article for a blog right now, but holy crap, our situational play-calling last year was absolutely horrendous.

    Here are some hilarious stats I investigated from last year:

    Taking away two meaningless end of 1st half plays in our own territory where we were running out the clock, the 2011 Jets had 59 total plays on 3rd or 4th and 3 or less

    - The Jets had a designed pass play on 41 of those 59 plays (69% of the time we wanted to pass versus 31% of the time we ran the ball). The league average is ~55% pass, ~45% run. So much for ground and pound. If only this were the worst part of it all.

    - When the Jets wanted to pass the ball, they had a 46.3% success rate, meaning they got a 1st down. When the Jets designed a run call, they had a 77.8% success rate. Why the eff are you passing it twice as much as you are running it then?

    - This might be the best part because we all noticed how often they tried to gain only 2 yards on 3rd & 2 and only 3 yards on 3rd & 3... If you take away sacks and scrambles, the Jets had 34 throws on 3rd/4th & short. They threw short on a whopping 27 plays, for an "amazing" first down on 11 of those plays, or a cool 40.7% success rate. 2 of the 11 were thanks to defensive holding or DPI penalties. However, on the rare instance they challenged deep, they were successful on 6 of 7 tries, good for a 85.7% success rate. They drew two defensive holding/DPI penalties on those plays. Sanchez was 4/5 for 85 yds, 2 TDs, and 0 INT. Only 2 of the 7 deep shots were called after Week 7.


    I was a bit indifferent about Schotty until the Giants game in Week 16. That was the straw that broke the camel's back for me though. But after looking at this evidence on 3rd/4th and short, I see no way anyone could possibly defend this guy. The play-calling in this scenario is absolutely mind-boggling.

  15. #35
    A whole thread discussing football with only one or two non contributing posts.
    This is what this site was 10 years ago.

  16. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rexipus Rex View Post
    I'm working on an article for a blog right now, but holy crap, our situational play-calling last year was absolutely horrendous.

    Here are some hilarious stats I investigated from last year:

    Taking away two meaningless end of 1st half plays in our own territory where we were running out the clock, the 2011 Jets had 59 total plays on 3rd or 4th and 3 or less

    - The Jets had a designed pass play on 41 of those 59 plays (69% of the time we wanted to pass versus 31% of the time we ran the ball). The league average is ~55% pass, ~45% run. So much for ground and pound. If only this were the worst part of it all.

    - When the Jets wanted to pass the ball, they had a 46.3% success rate, meaning they got a 1st down. When the Jets designed a run call, they had a 77.8% success rate. Why the eff are you passing it twice as much as you are running it then?

    - This might be the best part because we all noticed how often they tried to gain only 2 yards on 3rd & 2 and only 3 yards on 3rd & 3... If you take away sacks and scrambles, the Jets had 34 throws on 3rd/4th & short. They threw short on a whopping 27 plays, for an "amazing" first down on 11 of those plays, or a cool 40.7% success rate. 2 of the 11 were thanks to defensive holding or DPI penalties. However, on the rare instance they challenged deep, they were successful on 6 of 7 tries, good for a 85.7% success rate. They drew two defensive holding/DPI penalties on those plays. Sanchez was 4/5 for 85 yds, 2 TDs, and 0 INT. Only 2 of the 7 deep shots were called after Week 7.


    I was a bit indifferent about Schotty until the Giants game in Week 16. That was the straw that broke the camel's back for me though. But after looking at this evidence on 3rd/4th and short, I see no way anyone could possibly defend this guy. The play-calling in this scenario is absolutely mind-boggling.
    Thank you. These are stats that we kind of all had an idea of, but to see them in plain text is even more disturbing than we even remember. And we remembered them as truly horrid.

    I am always amazed at the Schotty defenders. The man failed us --- with all of that All-Pro talent and a highly-touted-out-of-college QB at his disposal and he failed us time and time again with HORRID, predictable, banging-your-head-against-the-wall playcalling mixed with incomprehensibly illogical and nonsensical plays at other times. No feel is the key description. Trick play when we needed something standard and solid. Something standard when we needed something flashy. Seemed like every time I wanted us to run, we passed, and every time I wanted us to pass, we ran, every time we needed a short pass, we got a bomb, every time we needed a bomb we got a run up the gut... so on and so forth. When runs up the gut worked (remember the @Philly game?), we WENT AWAY FROM IT AND WE’D WIND UP THROWING 3-straight incompletions?! Or interceptions? Or, if we got stuffed at the line, hell... lets RUN AGAIN AND GET STUFFED 3 times?! What?! Mix it up already! I mean he was just so awful at playcalling. Nobody's saying that Schotty couldn't draw up some excellent plays and decent drives every so often, but the plays were ill-times and any success was outdone by massive failure. I feel so bad for the Rams... my prediction is that they will have some short-term success and then he'll run (or pass?) that O into the ground just like he did to ours. Great offenses mix things up and stick with what YOU can’t stop. We’d always play into the D’s hands by going away what we did well and went with what the defense could stop. I mean... the man just baffled me after his initially impressive 1st season. After that,, it was all outrage over stupidity. And simply stunned he kept his job after the 2008 collapse -- the look on Mangini’s face when we were losing that game to Miami and our offense was doing all kinds of failure and the camera showed him saying, “What the **** are we doing?!” I truly believe we lost out on at least one Super Bowl thanks to that man. We had what it took a few of those years and it simply failed in colossal SOJ fashion. Hopefully, we can salvage it. I think we can. But man, that man set this franchise back. Glad he’;s gone. Now we can get down to business. (Hopefully?)

  17. #37
    Quote Originally Posted by patman View Post
    A whole thread discussing football with only one or two non contributing posts.
    This is what this site was 10 years ago.
    so you're saying teh pfail sucks?



  18. #38
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    Schitty was a total imbecile. Our offense will improve drastically simply because of his absence. It may take a little time, but it will undoubtedly happen. Schitthead really did some damage to Mark's confidence. A little patience and the Jets will morph into a chain-moving, clock-eating headache for the opponent. I know it.

  19. #39
    Quote Originally Posted by ChrisChrusher#40 View Post
    Thank you. These are stats that we kind of all had an idea of, but to see them in plain text is even more disturbing than we even remember. And we remembered them as truly horrid.
    No problem.



    Quote Originally Posted by ChrisChrusher#40 View Post
    When runs up the gut worked (remember the @Philly game?), we WENT AWAY FROM IT AND WE’D WIND UP THROWING 3-straight incompletions?! Or interceptions? Or, if we got stuffed at the line, hell... lets RUN AGAIN AND GET STUFFED 3 times?! What?! Mix it up already!
    Oh, you mean the first drive to start the Eagles game for the 10 minutes it was actually still a game?


    1st and 10 at NYJ 7 S.Greene left tackle to NYJ 9 for 2 yards (A.Jordan).

    2nd and 8 at NYJ 9 S.Greene left guard to NYJ 21 for 12 yards (K.Coleman).

    1st and 10 at NYJ 21 Direct snap to S.Greene. S.Greene up the middle to NYJ 27 for 6 yards (J.Chaney).

    2nd and 4 at NYJ 27 S.Greene up the middle to NYJ 40 for 13 yards (N.Allen).

    1st and 10 at NYJ 40 (Shotgun) M.Sanchez pass short left to L.Tomlinson to NYJ 36 for -4 yards (C.Matthews).

    2nd and 14 at NYJ 36 (Shotgun) M.Sanchez pass short right to S.Holmes to NYJ 43 for 7 yards (K.Coleman). Holmes FUMBLES (K.Coleman), RECOVERED by PHI-J.Parker at NYJ 47. J.Parker for 47 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Assistant challenged the loose ball recovery ruling, and the play was Upheld. 0 7
    A.Henery extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Dorenbos, Holder-C.Henry.


    We go from our own 7 to the 40 yard line on four straight running plays.

    The next play, the bolded one, IIRC we called a SCREEN PASS. Who the hell calls a screen pass when you're cramming the ball down the other team's throat? If you do want to pass, that's the ultimate time to take a deep shot because the back end of the defense starts to creep up.

    You run a screen pass when the defensive line is pinning its ears back to rush the passer. That clearly wasn't the case because we just ran it 4 times in a row for over 8 yards a rush. It's almost as if Schotty was thinking one step too far ahead (well, they must know we're not going to run it every play and they'll probably be keying in on a deep shot here by us, so let's try to toss the ball over the pass rush). Keep it simple, stupid. This is football, not rocket science.

  20. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rexipus Rex View Post
    It's almost as if Schotty was thinking one step too far ahead (well, they must know we're not going to run it every play and they'll probably be keying in on a deep shot here by us, so let's try to toss the ball over the pass rush). Keep it simple, stupid. This is football, not rocket science.
    This plus 1000. Schotty was constantly doing this and out smarting himself.

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