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Thread: JETS odds...just got back from Vegas...

  1. #1

    Exclamation JETS odds...just got back from Vegas...

    Well you Jets "homers" are gonna get upset over this one...

    I just got back tonite from a little golf vacation in Vegas, and this afternoon I stopped off in the MGM Sports Book to check out the updated pre-season odds on our Favorite Team's chances for The Super Bowl.

    Vegas has us at 22 to 1 !!!!
    That is horrible. They think we suck. They have looked at our roster & said, "You guys blow!". Thats what 22 to 1 means.

    I guess I better take off those rose colored glasses, thinking that we were a good shot at Wild Card again...I just found their opinion of us very dis-heartening...

    PS. Golf at Rio Secca Golf Club & Cascatta Golf was fantastic

    PSS...The JI/Yahoo Pools are now open for sign up. See stickied thread...

  2. #2
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    What were the Giants last year?

    Green Bay before them?

    Who cares, the line is based on action, nothing more and 22-1 sounds about right given what they did last season.

    Then again I don't particularly get why anyone would book a golf vacation in Vegas, end of July, 100+ degree weather. Too many better places to golf.
    Last edited by Jet Nut; 08-02-2012 at 01:43 AM.

  3. #3
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    That's how I like it.

    I plan on putting $500.00 on the Jets through Vegas. If they fail to win the Super Bowl? At least I had a fun season. If they actually win the super bowl? That $500.00 turns into $11,000. It's a risk I'm willing to take with a top notch defense.

    I wonder what Vegas had the odds at in regards to the Jets making the playoffs (let alone an AFC Championship Game) with a first year head coach and rookie quarterback back in 2009...?

    What Vegas "thinks" during the offseason (as of right now) means absolutely nothing come the regular season and/or postseason play. The games are won on the football field, not during Vegas lines of the offseason.

    Do I expect the Jets to win a Super Bowl this season? No. Not at all. But I'm still willing to put up something as small as $500.00, which gives me a fighting chance at $11,000.
    Last edited by NY2FLDWC85; 08-02-2012 at 01:37 AM.

  4. #4
    What the historical accuracy of those odds? Honest question, not trolling. I wonder how close their odds match up with what actually ends up happening year after year.

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    Quote Originally Posted by NYJets4life View Post
    What the historical accuracy of those odds? Honest question, not trolling. I wonder how close their odds match up with what actually ends up happening year after year.
    If everyone bets the Jets to win the odds plummet.

    Does that mean that Vegas now thinks more highly of the Jets? Nope, they're just balancing out the betting pool.

  6. #6
    Every sportsbook online that I've seen has the Jets' odds of winning the SB somewhere between the 13th and 18th best odds. Pretty much every preseason power ranking I've seen online has the Jets somewhere in that range as well. Getting 22-1 on the Jets winning it all is very fair value right now.


    If you truly believe that just about everyone who writes about, analyzes, and handicaps football is severely underestimating the Jets' chances this season, then right now would be the time to bet, and bet big. That value will never be higher than before the games are played.

  7. #7

    Red face

    Quote Originally Posted by NY2FLDWC85 View Post
    That's how I like it.

    I plan on putting $500.00 on the Jets through Vegas. If they fail to win the Super Bowl? At least I had a fun season. If they actually win the super bowl? That $500.00 turns into $11,000. It's a risk I'm willing to take with a top notch defense.

    I wonder what Vegas had the odds at in regards to the Jets making the playoffs (let alone an AFC Championship Game) with a first year head coach and rookie quarterback back in 2009...?

    What Vegas "thinks" during the offseason (as of right now) means absolutely nothing come the regular season and/or postseason play. The games are won on the football field, not during Vegas lines of the offseason.

    Do I expect the Jets to win a Super Bowl this season? No. Not at all. But I'm still willing to put up something as small as $500.00, which gives me a fighting chance at $11,000.

    Hmmmmmmm

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dunnie View Post
    Hmmmmmmm
    LOL.... Sounded like a long-winded load of bollocks to me too.

  9. #9
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    Vegas odds are about where the money is going, not an actual prediction of who the winner will be.

    Sent from my LTEvo

  10. #10
    Let's put it this way... nobody in the world makes a significant living beating the Vegas sports books. Same number of people who make a killing beating the craps table for a living. Zero. They handicap extremely well. And it has nothing to do with suckers putting all of their money on the Pats every year.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ASG0531 View Post
    Let's put it this way... nobody in the world makes a significant living beating the Vegas sports books. Same number of people who make a killing beating the craps table for a living. Zero. They handicap extremely well. And it has nothing to do with suckers putting all of their money on the Pats every year.
    I think some people are long term winners betting on Football. A very very small number I will grant you that but it does happen. I know at least one of them, a Las Vegas poker grinder and he has no reason to lie about it.

    Craps - I agree.

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    Plus there is also Moga

  13. #13
    22-1? That's higher than I would have thought. To win the SB anyway.
    Those odds do put them in the playoffs probably which is all you can expect from this squad. Playoffs isn't bad. Jags and Rams would love to.

  14. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by EM31 View Post
    I think some people are long term winners betting on Football. A very very small number I will grant you that but it does happen. I know at least one of them, a Las Vegas poker grinder and he has no reason to lie about it.

    Craps - I agree.

    The margins are so slim for even the most sharp football bettors that the consistent winners simply don't exist. Same for every sport. Sports book is just another roulette table to Vegas. House will win in the long run, the odds dictate it. If they win they aren't trying to make a living off of it, that's for sure. And they're just riding a long-term high.

    If there were money to be made betting football everyone would quit their jobs and do it.

    In summary, there is no such thing as a career sports betting winner. Simply doesn't exist. It's mathematically impossible.


    ===

    Also, you said enough right there... "long term poker grinder"... that's where he makes his living. Ask him about his ups and downs in sports betting.
    Last edited by ASG0531; 08-02-2012 at 09:55 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ASG0531 View Post
    Let's put it this way... nobody in the world makes a significant living beating the Vegas sports books. Same number of people who make a killing beating the craps table for a living. Zero. They handicap extremely well. And it has nothing to do with suckers putting all of their money on the Pats every year.
    The two don't equate to each other. Whilst the handicappers do a very good job - I agree - there is still some human element in there. There's no reason that some equally, or more, adept at handicapping games can't pick and choose which games to bet, based on the imperfect information out there, and find an edge. The advantage the bettor has is that he doesn't have to pick every game - just the games he wants to. It doesn't defy logic that someone can beat the house in that regard. Most people can't, I'll grant you that, but its certainly not zero.

    Craps, OTOH, is an entirely different animal. Over time, the math says you will lose as there is no bet that gives you even odds or better, to win. Sure max odds gives no house advantage, but you have to play the pass line in order to get those odds.

  16. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by crasherino View Post
    The two don't equate to each other. Whilst the handicappers do a very good job - I agree - there is still some human element in there. There's no reason that some equally, or more, adept at handicapping games can't pick and choose which games to bet, based on the imperfect information out there, and find an edge. The advantage the bettor has is that he doesn't have to pick every game - just the games he wants to. It doesn't defy logic that someone can beat the house in that regard. Most people can't, I'll grant you that, but its certainly not zero.

    Craps, OTOH, is an entirely different animal. Over time, the math says you will lose as there is no bet that gives you even odds or better, to win. Sure max odds gives no house advantage, but you have to play the pass line in order to get those odds.


    Please enlighten me and give me the name of a career sports bettor. I'll follow up with the name of a career craps player. And I mean someone who makes most of their income from the game.

    If you think Vegas doesn't have an edge in sports betting, you are horribly, horribly wrong.

  17. #17
    22-1? That would be well worth slapping some cash on.

  18. #18
    Quote Originally Posted by Baddniss View Post
    Well you Jets "homers" are gonna get upset over this one...

    I just got back tonite from a little golf vacation in Vegas, and this afternoon I stopped off in the MGM Sports Book to check out the updated pre-season odds on our Favorite Team's chances for The Super Bowl.

    Vegas has us at 22 to 1 !!!!
    That is horrible. They think we suck. They have looked at our roster & said, "You guys blow!". Thats what 22 to 1 means.

    I guess I better take off those rose colored glasses, thinking that we were a good shot at Wild Card again...I just found their opinion of us very dis-heartening...

    PS. Golf at Rio Secca Golf Club & Cascatta Golf was fantastic

    PSS...The JI/Yahoo Pools are now open for sign up. See stickied thread...
    No - actually they think people think we suck. Remember, Vegas odds are set at what they expect will deliver equilibrium in bets.

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    Quote Originally Posted by crasherino View Post
    The two don't equate to each other. Whilst the handicappers do a very good job - I agree - there is still some human element in there. There's no reason that some equally, or more, adept at handicapping games can't pick and choose which games to bet, based on the imperfect information out there, and find an edge. The advantage the bettor has is that he doesn't have to pick every game - just the games he wants to. It doesn't defy logic that someone can beat the house in that regard. Most people can't, I'll grant you that, but its certainly not zero.

    Craps, OTOH, is an entirely different animal. Over time, the math says you will lose as there is no bet that gives you even odds or better, to win. Sure max odds gives no house advantage, but you have to play the pass line in order to get those odds.
    It's amazing how many times you see a +/-2.5 game and a +/-6.5 game decided by a FG or a TD.

    Amazing how close the handicappers get.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ASG0531 View Post
    Please enlighten me and give me the name of a career sports bettor. I'll follow up with the name of a career craps player. And I mean someone who makes most of their income from the game.

    If you think Vegas doesn't have an edge in sports betting, you are horribly, horribly wrong.
    Haralabos Voulgaris is an extremely successful NBA bettor. His database covers every game for 10+ year, with floor matchups. His 5x5 models were way out in front of anything teams and advanced statistics sites were doing, and probably still doing, and he has the sample size to back it up.

    His knowledge is, of course, much more meticulously researched than any casual bettor and he doesn't give away info (like most "winning" sharps).
    He's one of very few people -- Voulgaris estimates there may be as few as four or five -- who have achieved a high level of success betting full-time on the NBA.

    And he does very well at it. "In the last eight years," he explains, "the 2004-2005 season was the only year where I didn't turn a nice profit, and I lost very small."

    His approach is intensively evidence-based. He has his own massive database that would be the envy of any stat geek. For instance: Given two line-ups of players on the floor, his database does, he says, a good job of predicting which players will guard each other. The database also tracks the tendencies of individual referees, and factors all that and much more into forecasts. Voulgaris also watches close to 1,000 games a year.
    http://articles.businessinsider.com/...ball-expertise

    http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/pos...onaghy-scandal
    Last edited by ozu; 08-02-2012 at 10:35 AM.

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