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Thread: QB development takes 5 years, not 3 years - from Sirius NFL Radio

  1. #1
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    QB development takes 5 years, not 3 years - from Sirius NFL Radio

    About a week and a half ago i was driving down the road listening to NFL radio. I turned on the radio in the middle of a discussion so i didn't catch the name of the person who brought up the topic but it was a former NFL GM.

    They were talking about the thought that it takes 3 years for an NFL QB to break out and this mans opinion is that the time period was wrong. With me paraphrasing and simplifying the discussion so i can type it out, here was his thoughts.

    Year 1 if the QB plays right away- the QB is trying to learn his offense but he's just out there operating on pure instinct and making things happen without really knowing much of anything.

    Year 2 - the QB fully learns and knows his offense.

    Year 3 - the QB starts to learn what defenses are trying to do to stop the offense. It is in this 3rd year that you sometimes see a big progression but sometimes you don't as well.

    Year 4 - the QB learns how to use his offense to counter what the opposing defense is trying to do.

    Year 5 - the QB takes all of this knowledge and finally puts together a full season knowing mostly everything he needs to know to be a complete QB.

    I thought it was really interesting to see it laid out this way and thought people on the boards would find it interesting. If this progression holds true for Sanchez then it's a critical time in his development.

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    So, next year, then?!

    Sent from my LTEvo

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    Quote Originally Posted by stanner View Post
    So, next year, then?!

    Sent from my LTEvo
    No. This is year 1 of the Sparano system.

    Wake me up in 2016.

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    Good post. Thanks. But this thread won't go well..As evidenced by the thread above

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    Quote Originally Posted by DDNYjets View Post
    No. This is year 1 of the Sparano system.

    Wake me up in 2016.
    Shoot.

    Sent from my LTEvo

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    Quote Originally Posted by C Mart View Post
    Good post. Thanks. But this thread won't go well..As evidenced by the thread above
    As Brian Billick likes to say, "Son, your potential is going to get me fired."

    Coaches and GMs have to weigh their own careers along with patience in allowing a QB to develop. In theory the 5 year plan is great, but is it practical? NFL is a results business, if the team isn't winning there will be changes. Coaches are not going to wait around for a QB to develop if their job is on the line. I don't think this is the case with us. I think Rex is secure and that should allow them to have patience with Mark.

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    Does a NFL continue to learn significantly thru the first 5 years yeah.

    But after 1 year of starting you know if he is capable of running a NFL team,
    year two proves that he gets better, but after 3 years , while you may not be at the top of the bell curve, he is already well within normal distribution and to expect a significant change between 3 and 5 is unreasonable.

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    Quote Originally Posted by patman View Post
    Does a NFL continue to learn significantly thru the first 5 years yeah.

    But after 1 year of starting you know if he is capable of running a NFL team,
    year two proves that he gets better, but after 3 years , while you may not be at the top of the bell curve, he is already well within normal distribution and to expect a significant change between 3 and 5 is unreasonable.
    For a QB in the NFL, especially the #5 overall pick, with 53 starts he should be considered a veteran, and not a development player.

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    Quote Originally Posted by PatsFanTX View Post
    For a QB in the NFL, especially the #5 overall pick, with 53 starts he should be considered a veteran, and not a development player.

    Sure he's a veteran, but complete in his development? Maybe not, and maybe no QB is at that time.

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    I already knew this. Last year I spent some times repeating that if you look at the numbers for almost any QB, the "breakout" usually occurs when they're 26-28 years old, and usually when they're 27.

    However good or bad the QB is, you're not going to see them play their best until that age.

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    Quote Originally Posted by PatsFanTX View Post
    For a QB in the NFL, especially the #5 overall pick, with 53 starts he should be considered a veteran, and not a development player.
    The #5 pick is overblown..We all know the only way for the Jets to jump up and grab Sanchez was to pull the trade off with Mangini...

    Granted he was still going to go by the time to Redskins picked at 13.

    Is it fair to say Stafford and Josh Freeman are still developing?

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    Quote Originally Posted by DDNYjets View Post
    As Brian Billick likes to say, "Son, your potential is going to get me fired."

    Coaches and GMs have to weigh their own careers along with patience in allowing a QB to develop. In theory the 5 year plan is great, but is it practical? NFL is a results business, if the team isn't winning there will be changes. Coaches are not going to wait around for a QB to develop if their job is on the line. I don't think this is the case with us. I think Rex is secure and that should allow them to have patience with Mark.
    With the help of ownership, GM's and coaches can be assured patience of the owner believes in what the GM is doing and buys in, or has his own thoughts on a player and the direction of the team.

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    Quote Originally Posted by patman View Post
    Does a NFL continue to learn significantly thru the first 5 years yeah.

    But after 1 year of starting you know if he is capable of running a NFL team,
    year two proves that he gets better, but after 3 years , while you may not be at the top of the bell curve, he is already well within normal distribution and to expect a significant change between 3 and 5 is unreasonable.
    So giants fans shouldn't have expected eli manning to be any good after 3 seasons?

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    Quote Originally Posted by patman View Post
    Does a NFL continue to learn significantly thru the first 5 years yeah.

    But after 1 year of starting you know if he is capable of running a NFL team,
    year two proves that he gets better, but after 3 years , while you may not be at the top of the bell curve, he is already well within normal distribution and to expect a significant change between 3 and 5 is unreasonable.
    What about steady change? Is that reasonable?

    Not talking a jump to 68%, 5500 yards, 50 TDs and 6 INTs for a 104 QB rating.

    Last year Sanchez was at 56.7%, 3,474 yards, 26 INTs, 18 INTs, 78.2 QB rating. Bunch of rushing TDs but also a bunch of fumbles lost.

    I would take 59.9%, 4000 yards, similar TDs, 15 INts, QB rating in the mid-80's, probably a few less rushing TDs (because of Tebow) and much fewer fumbles.

    Year 4, yeah, I could live with that.

    _

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    Btw, if Sanchez had completed 1 more pass a game last year, he'd have been at a 59.7% completion rate.

    Is it at all possible that he completes TWO more passes a game this year to get over 60%?

    Is it at all possible with a simpler offense he cuts down on his INTs by 3 or 4? And if Sporano stresses ball security he cuts down a few fumbles?

    That to me is the biggest issue--the turnovers, but I'd like to see a higher completion %.

    60% this year and 65% in year 5.

    Yeah, that's the ticket.

    _

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    Quote Originally Posted by JStokes View Post
    Btw, if Sanchez had completed 1 more pass a game last year, he'd have been at a 59.7% completion rate.

    Is it at all possible that he completes TWO more passes a game this year to get over 60%?

    Is it at all possible with a simpler offense he cuts down on his INTs by 3 or 4? And if Sporano stresses ball security he cuts down a few fumbles?

    That to me is the biggest issue--the turnovers, but I'd like to see a higher completion %.

    60% this year and 65% in year 5.

    Yeah, that's the ticket.

    _
    You can also look at it this way, if he cuts down on the turnovers it leads to longer drives and more plays, thus adding to his season totals. If Sanchez eliminates some of those TOs, he should be at 60 % 4000 yards no problem. I also think taking more shots down field in this offense will help as well, last year a pass over 20 yards was non existent.

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    Quote Originally Posted by sec.101row23 View Post
    You can also look at it this way, if he cuts down on the turnovers it leads to longer drives and more plays, thus adding to his season totals. If Sanchez eliminates some of those TOs, he should be at 60 % 4000 yards no problem. I also think taking more shots down field in this offense will help as well, last year a pass over 20 yards was non existent.
    Concur. I don't need 5000 yards and 45 TDs.

    Just a BIT more consistency and cutting down on turnovers.

    Btw, a low 60% completion rate is where most of the "good" QBs in the league were last year--other than Rogers, Brees, Brady and interstingly enough, Romo.

    Hell with one more year in the league, Joe Flacco completed only 4 more passes than Sanchez on one less attempt. And he's looking for MONSTER money.

    That's basically a statistical tie--Sanchez just killed himself with turnovers.

    _

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    Just so we are all on the same page. Are we in Year 1 or Year 4?

    Just want to know what I should expect or hope to see this year.

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    Quote Originally Posted by DDNYjets View Post
    Just so we are all on the same page. Are we in Year 1 or Year 4?


    _

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    Quote Originally Posted by DDNYjets View Post
    Just so we are all on the same page. Are we in Year 1 or Year 4?

    Just want to know what I should expect or hope to see this year.
    4. Sanchez needs to show improvement, no doubt about it.

    What would be an acceptable season for Sanchez to lead you to believe he can be the Jets franchise QB?

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