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Thread: QB development takes 5 years, not 3 years - from Sirius NFL Radio

  1. #41
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    Quote Originally Posted by Untouchable View Post
    Yeah, no sh*t.

    But these are still the two guys that a lot of Jets fans use as a barometer for Sanchez.

    Fact is, both guys are better than Sanchez at the moment. They aren't substantially better, and if Sanchez has a big year and shows improvement, then he could jump to their level or even surpass them.

    But as of right now, Ryan and Flacco are the better QB's.
    I wasn't sure because it looked like you were saying that 2 QBs with a year more experience than Sanchez were better than him.

    In a thread discussing experience in years and how that impacts development.

    See, if you were to say "Stafford is a better QB than Sanchez--even MUCH better", then I'd agree with you, because they have the same number of years in the league. But then I'd probably counter with something silly like "well, Sanchez is better than Freeman" and everyone thought that guy was going to be a stud. And don't forget, Stafford was the number 1 pick of the draft--we took Sanchez at 5 to jump over a bunch of teams that were looking at him.

    I've never understood comparing guys at different points in their careers.

    It's like the idiots here who say "Sanchez can't carry/lead his team like Brady or Brees or Rogers or Manning".

    Well, yeah. And they couldn't do it in THEIR third year either.

    I'm not one of those guys who thinks Sanchez is going to become a top 4 or 5 guy throwing for 5000 yards and 50 TDs, but I think he can still become a VERY good, very productive, consistent winning QB in this league. A Phil Simms type guy for 10 years--tough, clutch, very very good but not elite.

    Hey, but I'm just a homer, right?

    All the negative haters are just being realistic.

    _

  2. #42
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    Quote Originally Posted by JB1089 View Post
    Matt Ryan is absolutely better than Mark Sanchez. Joe Flacco isn't. Sanchez and Flacco are on the same tier.
    LOL. You're so lost in Fantasy stats you need Betty Ford.

    Hey, did you know Brad Smith recorded a 100+ Passer Rating two years in a row?

    TWO YEARS IN A ROW!!!!!

    Any idea how hard that is? Man, that's really something else.

    Better readjust your QB rankings ...

  3. #43
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    Quote Originally Posted by PatsFanTX View Post
    If you had a national poll excluding Jet fans, Raven fans and Falcons fans, and asked which of the 3 QB's they would want as a starting QB, the results would be as follows:

    Flacco- 60%
    Ryan- 35%
    Sanchez- 5%

    Outside of NY, Sanchez is not very highly thought of as a NFL QB.
    Yeah, and outside of the NY tri-state area, the Olive Garden is thought of as outstanding Italian cuisine and Walmart sells high fashion clothing.

    _

  4. #44
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    Quote Originally Posted by JStokes View Post
    I wasn't sure because it looked like you were saying that 2 QBs with a year more experience than Sanchez were better than him.

    In a thread discussing experience in years and how that impacts development.

    See, if you were to say "Stafford is a better QB than Sanchez--even MUCH better", then I'd agree with you, because they have the same number of years in the league. But then I'd probably counter with something silly like "well, Sanchez is better than Freeman" and everyone thought that guy was going to be a stud. And don't forget, Stafford was the number 1 pick of the draft--we took Sanchez at 5 to jump over a bunch of teams that were looking at him.

    I've never understood comparing guys at different points in their careers.

    It's like the idiots here who say "Sanchez can't carry/lead his team like Brady or Brees or Rogers or Manning".

    Well, yeah. And they couldn't do it in THEIR third year either.

    I'm not one of those guys who thinks Sanchez is going to become a top 4 or 5 guy throwing for 5000 yards and 50 TDs, but I think he can still become a VERY good, very productive, consistent winning QB in this league. A Phil Simms type guy for 10 years--tough, clutch, very very good but not elite.

    Hey, but I'm just a homer, right?

    All the negative haters are just being realistic.

    _
    Are you serious?

    So it's proposterous to compare Sanchez to QB's who have just 1 more year of experience than him?

    Okay, let's look at Matt Ryan's junior campaign compared to Sanchez.

    Matt Ryan in year 3: 3705 yards, 62.5% completions, 28 TD's, 9 INT's, 3 fumbles lost

    Mark Sanchez in year 3: 3474 yards, 56.7 % completions, 26 TD's, 18 INT's, 8 fumbles lost

  5. #45
    Quote Originally Posted by JStokes View Post
    I don't know if you know this, but Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco have both been in the league one more year than Mark Sanchez.

    _
    and both have not improved much from their 3rd year to their 4th year.

    IMO Right now Sanchez is about 18-23rd in the league there is about 10-15 guys worse than him say. Jaws has him at 23 so I used that as worse case.
    To me his ceiling is 12-15. Certainly good enough to win more than he loses, but not the guy that can carry a team for 3 or 4 games.

  6. #46
    Quote Originally Posted by JStokes View Post
    Yeah, and outside of the NY tri-state area, the Olive Garden is thought of as outstanding Italian cuisine and Walmart sells high fashion clothing.

    _
    forget it

  7. #47
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    Quote Originally Posted by Untouchable View Post
    Are you serious?

    So it's proposterous to compare Sanchez to QB's who have just 1 more year of experience than him?

    Okay, let's look at Matt Ryan's junior campaign compared to Sanchez.

    Matt Ryan in year 3: 3705 yards, 62.5% completions, 28 TD's, 9 INT's, 3 fumbles lost

    Mark Sanchez in year 3: 3474 yards, 56.7 % completions, 26 TD's, 18 INT's, 8 fumbles lost
    Dude, most everyone acknowedges that Sanchez took a step back last year--is that an outlier or the trend. Not enough info at this point.

    I've watched "Matty Ice" since he was a freshman in college since he was in the Big Least--nice QB but I don't get the hype.

    He's got some numbers on Sanchez, but maybe I'm just a homer and not realistic like the negative Nancy's--but I don't see him as that good of a QB.

    I think Sanchez has a bounceback year this year--due mainly to Sparano's penchant for max-protection (which I honestly believe was Sanchez's downfall last year). If he has a year like last year--I agree he's done. But if he has a year like Ryan's or Flacco's FOURTH year--are you back on the bandwagon?

    _

  8. #48
    Quote Originally Posted by JStokes View Post
    Yeah, and outside of the NY tri-state area, the Olive Garden is thought of as outstanding Italian cuisine and Walmart sells high fashion clothing.

    _
    Based on that comparison, you have new york liking walmart and olive garden.

  9. #49
    Quote Originally Posted by jetrider View Post
    LOL. You're so lost in Fantasy stats you need Betty Ford.

    Hey, did you know Brad Smith recorded a 100+ Passer Rating two years in a row?

    TWO YEARS IN A ROW!!!!!

    Any idea how hard that is? Man, that's really something else.

    Better readjust your QB rankings ...
    1) I've never played fantasy football in my life. I detest fantasy football.

    2) Passer rating, to my knowledge, isn't used in fantasy football.

    3) The problem with fantasy football is that it uses gross statistics. When I talk about passer rating and per play metrics like DVOA, that has nothing to with fantasy football.

    4) It seems to me that since you can't, or don't feel like taking the time to, perform a substantive statistical analysis that you've decided that it's worthless.

    I certainly hope you can see the difference between the way I use numbers and the way that DWC does.


    ------------------------------------------------------------------


    As far as passer rating goes, go have a look at the history books. The best QBs in any given era are the ones with the best passer ratings. It gets a lot of flak because people don't know how to calculate it. It's the best metric in football for evaluating individual performance.

  10. #50
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    Quote Originally Posted by patman View Post
    forget it
    I was joking with Tex. We go way back, you need to do more to diminish my disdain for you.

    _

  11. #51
    Quote Originally Posted by patman View Post
    Does a NFL continue to learn significantly thru the first 5 years yeah.

    But after 1 year of starting you know if he is capable of running a NFL team,
    year two proves that he gets better, but after 3 years , while you may not be at the top of the bell curve, he is already well within normal distribution and to expect a significant change between 3 and 5 is unreasonable.
    Significant change from year 3-5, maybe not, but Sanchez has shown he's able to pass for nearly 30 TD's already. Expecting him to lose say 4 INT's from last season and minimize his fumbles to 5 is not that unreasonable at all. Then you have a QB with 30 TD's, 14 INT's and 5 fumbles (say 3 are turnovers). That's a top 10 QB in the league today, no?

  12. #52
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    Quote Originally Posted by JStokes View Post
    Dude, most everyone acknowedges that Sanchez took a step back last year--

    I think Sanchez has a bounceback year this year--due mainly to Sparano's penchant for max-protection (which I honestly believe was Sanchez's downfall last year). If he has a year like last year--I agree he's done. But if he has a year like Ryan's or Flacco's FOURTH year--are you back on the bandwagon?

    _
    I think you are, amongst the peak of us JETS fans, in support of Mark.

    But if 2012 looks anything like 2011....what say you? I don't think he had a great rookie year. 2011 is appearing to be an aberration, I hope not.

  13. #53
    5 years... I'll bet that if there's no breakout in a couple of years, someone's going to find some report saying it takes eight years to develop a quarterback .

  14. #54
    Maybe when this Sanchez project fails we will draft a QB who's played more than one season in College.

  15. #55
    Quote Originally Posted by McGinley View Post
    Maybe when this Sanchez project fails....
    Sounds like you can't wait for that to happen. Pretty sad that you're actualy rooting against your own QB.

  16. #56
    Quote Originally Posted by Snell41 View Post
    Sounds like you can't wait for that to happen. Pretty sad that you're actualy rooting against your own QB.
    there's several posters that think that being negative is so cool that they root against jet players. pretty sad indeed

  17. #57
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    Quote Originally Posted by McGinley View Post
    Maybe when this Sanchez project fails we will draft a QB who's played more than one season in College.
    You're just being objective, right?

    _

  18. #58
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    Quote Originally Posted by cant wait View Post
    there's several posters that think that being negative is so cool that they root against jet players. pretty sad indeed
    They are not being negative, they are just being objective.

    It must suck going through life being so miserable.

    _

  19. #59
    Quote Originally Posted by Snell41 View Post
    Significant change from year 3-5, maybe not, but Sanchez has shown he's able to pass for nearly 30 TD's already. Expecting him to lose say 4 INT's from last season and minimize his fumbles to 5 is not that unreasonable at all. Then you have a QB with 30 TD's, 14 INT's and 5 fumbles (say 3 are turnovers). That's a top 10 QB in the league today, no?
    Well that is a very significant improvement.

    Cutting your fumbles by 1/2, Int by 25% while increasing your passing TD by 15% is a wonderful improvement, certainly possible, just not probable, And what may hurt the possibility of the happening is his supporting cast. Burress really helped him in the endzone last year.

    As far as top 10 goes, stat wise probably. the diff between 10 and 20 is not much.

    What is unfortunate for mark, is that a good percentage of the jets TD scores will be in Tebows columm as he cleans up on Marks work getting them in positon.

  20. #60
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    Quote Originally Posted by patman View Post
    Based on that comparison, you have new york liking walmart and olive garden.
    Not too bright, are you?

    _

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