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Thread: Today's Polls from RCP - A Ryan Bounce?

  1. #1

    Today's Polls from RCP - A Ryan Bounce?

    General Election: Romney vs. Obama Gallup Tracking Obama 45, Romney 47 Romney +2

    General Election: Romney vs. Obama Rasmussen Tracking Obama 43, Romney 47 Romney +4

    Ohio: Romney vs. Obama Purple Strategies Obama 44, Romney 46 Romney +2

    Florida: Romney vs. Obama Purple Strategies Obama 47, Romney 48 Romney +1

    Colorado: Romney vs. Obama Purple Strategies Obama 49, Romney 46 Obama +3

    Virginia: Romney vs. Obama Purple Strategies Obama 45, Romney 48 Romney +3


    President Obama Job Approval Gallup Approve 45, Disapprove 49 Disapprove +4

    President Obama Job Approval Rasmussen Reports Approve 47, Disapprove 52 Disapprove +5

  2. #2
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    Won't last long.

    Obama is really strengthening the economy.

  3. #3
    Quote Originally Posted by PlumberKhan View Post
    Won't last long.

    Obama is really strengthening the economy.
    Put a when you make a joke or people might thing you are being serious.

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    Quote Originally Posted by chiefst2000 View Post
    Put a when you make a joke or people might thing you are being serious.
    I wasn't joking


    Soooo...you're saying he ISN'T making it better?
    Strange. I checked and it seems that the stock market is near record highs and a lot of corporations are making record profits.

    How much better can it get?

  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by PlumberKhan View Post
    I wasn't joking


    Soooo...you're saying he ISN'T making it better?
    Strange. I checked and it seems that the stock market is near record highs and a lot of corporations are making record profits.

    How much better can it get?
    Stock Market =/= The Economy

  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by PlumberKhan View Post
    I wasn't joking


    Soooo...you're saying he ISN'T making it better?
    Strange. I checked and it seems that the stock market is near record highs and a lot of corporations are making record profits.

    How much better can it get?
    2yr - .29
    3yr - .42
    5yr - .80
    7yr - 1.25
    10yr - 1.81
    lb - 2.92

    plenty of money around for stocks

  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by PlumberKhan View Post
    I wasn't joking


    Soooo...you're saying he ISN'T making it better?
    Strange. I checked and it seems that the stock market is near record highs and a lot of corporations are making record profits.

    How much better can it get?
    The economy is growing at a pace of 1.5% and unemployment is over 8%. GDP growth in previous recoveries averaged close to 5%. Average baseline growth in the US is considered to be 3%. Coming out of a recession there is a bounce back effect and growth should be well above average. We are growing at 1.5%. We are currently down 5 Million jobs from peak to trough. Economic activity is measured by GDP growth and unemployment. The stock market has little to do with it. Jetswin was correct in pointing out that with interest rates at near 0% the FED has essentially forced investors to put their money in the markets. This is an artificial effect caused by unusually low interest rates.

    I am expecting a major sell off in the markets over the next month or two regardless. Personally I have been trimming my investments over the past few weeks. Trying to have some cash on the sidelines to take advantage of what may be some good buys if my expectation comes to fruition.
    Last edited by chiefst2000; 08-15-2012 at 05:10 PM.

  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by Warfish View Post
    Stock Market =/= The Economy
    What about corporate profits?

  9. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by PlumberKhan View Post
    What about corporate profits?
    Again, economic growth is measured by growth in GDP. Corporate profits are irrelevant.

    For anyone that likes to analyze polling data I suggest checking out the specifics on the purple strategies poll:

    http://www.purplestrategies.com/wp-c...ug15_Final.pdf

    Purple Strategies polls in swing states only. They are non partisan and known to be quite accurate. Some numbers that stood out to me:

    Among independent voters Romney leads 50 to 39 with 11% undecided. Also the gap between men and women voters was interesting

    Obama leads 51 - 42 among women with 6% undecided
    Romney leads 53-41 among men with 6% undecided

    In the past undecideds generally break for the challenger by a 7-3 margin in a incumbent reelection campaign.

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by chiefst2000 View Post
    Again, economic growth is measured by growth in GDP.
    K.

    Here's a graph:



    2000 - 2012

    Hmmm. Doesn't look THAT dire. I count 5 times that the % was the same under the other guy...but can't recall the talk of calamity.


    Welp. Guess trickle down is a failure

  11. #11
    Quote Originally Posted by PlumberKhan View Post
    K.

    Here's a graph:



    2000 - 2012

    Hmmm. Doesn't look THAT dire. I count 5 times that the % was the same under the other guy...but can't recall the talk of calamity.


    Welp. Guess trickle down is a failure
    You werent paying very close attention. The growth rate dropped to under 1% during the dot com bubble/911 in2000- 2002 and again during the housing recession of 2007. Notice the spikes when the recovery began in 2002. There were spikes over 5% as well as 3 years of growth over 3%. In June pf 2012 we were back to 1.5%. If you believe that between now and November 2nd the numbers are magically going to improve, well good luck with that dream.

  12. #12
    Another troubling poll for Obama just released this morning.

    https://edisk.fandm.edu/FLI/keystone/pdf/keyaug12_1.pdf

    This is a Poll of voters in PA. The methodology they use is questionable so I'm taking the info with a grain of salt. The numbers I found interesting were in the details.

    In this particular poll the Independents in PA were 46% for Romney and 26% for Obama with 23% undecided. Yikes. The statewide total for PA according to their methodology was 47% Obama 41% Romney.

    Another interesting number withing the numbers was the Republican vote. Republicans in the poll were 69% Romney and 11% Obama with 16% undecided.

    What we have is a poll with a massive skew to Democratic voters (340D 250R 84I) which still shows Romney within 6 points. PA is a great measuring stick for this election. If PA goes for Romney this election will end up a landslide. That state being as close as it is should be troubling for Obama maniacs. Independents breaking for Romney by 20 point margins however seems to be an outlier as that number is higher then in other polling. Stay tuned!

  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by PlumberKhan View Post
    What about corporate profits?
    What about them? They are not "The Economy" either.

    In both cases, they are part of the economy.

    Not sure where you're going here PK.

    Proclaiming one indicator or statistic as "the economy" is a shallow interpritation of things. The economy is far more complex than that.

  14. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by chiefst2000 View Post
    Another troubling poll for Obama just released this morning.

    https://edisk.fandm.edu/FLI/keystone/pdf/keyaug12_1.pdf

    This is a Poll of voters in PA. The methodology they use is questionable so I'm taking the info with a grain of salt. The numbers I found interesting were in the details.

    In this particular poll the Independents in PA were 46% for Romney and 26% for Obama with 23% undecided. Yikes. The statewide total for PA according to their methodology was 47% Obama 41% Romney.

    Another interesting number withing the numbers was the Republican vote. Republicans in the poll were 69% Romney and 11% Obama with 16% undecided.

    What we have is a poll with a massive skew to Democratic voters (340D 250R 84I) which still shows Romney within 6 points. PA is a great measuring stick for this election. If PA goes for Romney this election will end up a landslide. That state being as close as it is should be troubling for Obama maniacs. Independents breaking for Romney by 20 point margins however seems to be an outlier as that number is higher then in other polling. Stay tuned!
    Except that same poll has self-described "Moderates" breaking 51-24 for Obama

  15. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by doggin94it View Post
    Except that same poll has self-described "Moderates" breaking 51-24 for Obama
    All the polls look that way when broken down by self described ideology. Democrats when polled more often then not describe themselves as moderates. That number looks the same on all polls of all the states. When I analyze polls I look at Independents as the barometer. We all know that elections are decided by independents. R voters and D voters will go for their candidate 90-10. Dick Morris recently had some analysis on this stuff. He believes that Obama's team has basically given up on trying to capture independents. They are banking on turning out their base and increasing it. Thats why he believes they have gone to the tactic of trying to get voters to "be afraid" of Romney. The idea is to scare voters to the polls that otherwise would have stayed home. He thinks the tactic will fail because in order for that type of campaign to work there must have been something in the persons history to latch on to. For example a campaign of fearing Bachman or Buchannon, even Santorum works because those candidates have "baggage" of some out of the norm positions that can be spun to scary. It doesn't work with Romney because there is nothing in his history to tie him in to being some sort of scary right wing loon. The guy was know for being a moderate Governor of a liberal State. His personal life is unassailable. Doesn't drink or smoke. Cared for and stayed with a sick wife. Etc. The tactic fails with independents.

    Meanwhile a new Rassmussen Poll was just done in Wisconsin

    Wisconsin: Romney vs. Obama Rasmussen Reports Obama 47, Romney 48 Romney +1

  16. #16
    Another interesting number. In the past few days the intrade odds have closed the gap a bit. Obama was up 59 - 39 just a few days ago. I predict that by the end of the GOP convention these numbers will be 50-50 at worst.
    Intrade Odds O 56.4 R 43.2

  17. #17
    Another round of polling released today.

    Michigan: Romney vs. Obama Baydoun/Foster (D) Obama 44, Romney 48 Romney +4
    Wisconsin: Romney vs. Obama PPP (D) Obama 47, Romney 48 Romney +1

    Both were taken by Democrat pollsters. Interestingly PPP tends to have a 5-8 point skew towards Obama and still shows Romney with a lead in WI. In Michigan that poll was of 1700+ likely voters. Romney with a 4 point margin there.

    This was the first recent Michigan poll showing Romney leading so take the results with a grain of salt but signs of trouble for Obama can't be denied.

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